crafting & designing programs by practitioner's for a safer future
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Edward A. Thomas Esq. PresidentNatural Hazard Mitigation Association (NHMA)
July 23, 2015Natural Hazard Mitigation Association
International Hazard Mitigation Practitioners Symposium
Crafting and Designing Programs By Practitioners for a Safer Future
On behalf of:
Ed Thomas, PresidentNatural Hazard Mitigation Association
This presentation is not and cannot be technical engineering or legal advice, nor does this portion necessarily represent the views of anyone other the presenter.
We are Pro-Good, Thoughtful Development Which Does Not Harm People and Property
ET: Do we need to make the last point?
MM: No, but wouldnt hurt to make the point verbally in your presentation: Our presentations are based on general principles of law, engineering, policy and emergency management MM: Use this slide to introduce yourself. If more than one presenter, add a slide for each and put the notice on the last slide.*
Approaching Our Problems TogetherAs we think in a systems analysis manner to solve our serious problems we must including sea level rise and climate variability, uncertainty and climate change.We must stop making things worse!We need to work with many persons and groups to solve our serious disaster, water resources, and other related issues.Right now we have a system which rewards dangerous behavior.Yet, some placeslike Tulsa, Oklahoma; Metropolitan Denver, through the work of the UDFCD; Charlotte- Mecklenburg County, North Carolina and othersare heroically overcoming obstacles and reducing losses.First some thoughts on disasters, Flood Insurance, and opportunities for change
Note FEMA sponsorship and financial help etcET: list up for review when we talk*
Report on the 2013 Colorado FloodsReally excellent analysis which clearly shows the advantages of the thoughtful, collaborative, systematic approach and of the UDFCD over the past 40+ years
Three Major Situations We See When Dealing With Development Issues in Hazardous Locations a) undeveloped property, which gives us the best chance to get things right;
b) existing development which gives us challenging, but possible opportunities for preparedness, retrofitting, etc. to reduce the risks and consequences of natural events;
c) redevelopment of property following a disaster using the Living Mosaic" of available processes and programs.
Dramatic Increases in Flood and Wind Disasters
Trends in Damages Following Natural Events
Dramatic increases in Wind, Flood, Earthquake, and Wildfire losses
But not so for geophysical events. Why?*
Overall and Insurance Losses in the US 1980 2013, US $ billions
Flood losses increasing?This was not supposed to happen!The Flood Insurance Program was designed to reduce such losses.In 1976 a HUD sponsored economic analysis predicted that by the year 2000 or 2025 flood losses would begin to decline.I believe that the NFIP is the most cost effective program of Hazard Mitigation in the history of the Nation.Colorado has been a National Leader in reducing flood losses.Can the NFIP be improved?Is it now being improved?What happened?What can we do?
If time tell story of South Florida Building codes and Andrew.What happened clean water act.. demographics, people living where they want [tell ET & Kathy Lee in floodplain story if time *
Disaster Risk Reduction and Flood InsuranceFEMA has programs to help owners reduce their risk and save money on flood insuranceCommunity-wide discounts through the Community Rating System (CRS)FEMA grant programs support rebuilding and relocatingUse of higher deductibles to lower premium costs
The smartest way to save is to build higher!
Well, unless you have steep slopes as described in Brian Varellas brilliant webinar for the Natural Floodplain Functions Alliance (NFFA):http://www.aswm.org/-nffa/1790-webinars
(MAKE THIS INTERACTIVE ask how many present know of these programs, are their clients aware of them?)CRS discounts are not affected by BW-12. If your community participates in the CRS program, savings may apply. Grant programs may also be available to support rebuilding or relocating depending on the States priorities for use of grant funding. Higher deductibles can also lower premium costs, however, policyholders will be financially responsible for that expense at the time of loss. It is important that you maintain documentation in your files of your policyholders request. *
Excellent Webinar on Floodplain Management, Wildfires & Development in Mountain AreasPreventing Flood Disasters from Becoming Disastrous Brian Varrella, Chair, Colorado Association of Stormwater and Floodplain Managers Located at:http://www.aswm.org/-nffa/1790-webinars
USACE SlideCourtesy of Pete Rabbon
Initial RiskNo or Inadequate Warning/Evacuation PlanSea Level Rise and Upstream Development Increases Flood HeightsLack of Awareness of Flood Hazard, Absence of Flood, Business Interruption, and DIC InsuranceCritical Facilities Not Properly Protected From FloodingIncreased Development: more people and more costly development Buildings & Infrastructure Not Properly Designed or Maintained
Vastly Increased Residual RiskRISKRisk Increase Factors
Note: CLICK to advance bullets and arrows*
Residential/ commercialOil and gasInfrastructure/ EnvironmentalElectric utility**********
Lets Take a Few Minutes to Discuss Efficient Resilience OptionsTotal0.71.31.60.220.127.116.11.81.0**********1 Total capital and operational costs, discounted, across 20 years2Total loss averted, discounted, across 20 years 3 Included despite high C/B ratios due to strong co-benefits, risk aversion*Many thanks to Cynthia McHale of CERES for this informationBut, what form of mitigation/adaptation is missing from list?
How Can We Accomplish Disaster Risk ReductionMany folks tell me that there are insufficient funds for Hazard Mitigation/Climate Adaptation/Disaster Risk Reduction
Do you at least sort of agree with the old saying that Well Begun is Half Done?
If so, is Half-Done very, very Well Begun?
** Demographic Trends: The Future
Dr. Arthur Chris Nelson, FAICP at the Rocky Mountain Land Use Institute March 13, 2015More than half of the built environment of the United States we will see in 2050 does not exist in today.Update on information contained in: Journal of the American Planning Association,
Vol. 72, No. 4, Autumn 2006.
**Among the demographic projections he makes:
1) the US will be the fastest growing Nation in the world, except India only, (in sheer numbers not percentage) over the next 30 or so years. Our next 100 million population should come in about 20 years. It took 37 years to get from US 200 million to the new total of 300 million. To be clear, he says we will be growing in sheer numbers faster than China or Indonesia.
2) our need for housing and commercial space is going to change dramatically by type-from low % of lot coverage to high % coverage. The implications of this are huge from a floodplain management perspective: building construction that will have higher value per acre; including construction which will generally require closed pipe stormwater flow, as well as excellent engineering and planning for stormwater and floodplain management purposes. In general this new wave of development even less forgiving of ignoring natural processes than out current construction.
3) other observations: a) housing demand will be for more units per acre-townhouse, condo, shopping malls that go from .2 usable space per acre ratio to somewhere between 1.6 and 2.0 ratio of usable space per occupied acre. (high value-tight spaces-high runoff-low storage w/o NAI planning;b) he says that housing built post WWII should have a life expectancy of around 150 years;c) shopping malls with traditional parking lots have a life expectancy of about 12-20 years; and will be likely redeveloped into much higher density and value malls;d) demand for homes on large lots (greater than 7,000 sq. ft.) will drop to the point that these homes may be white elephants;e) demand for condos, single family housing will soar.
4) Dr. Nelson did not mention this, but it is also worth noting that much of this rapid development and re-development will take place in the Arid West, and other areas which will have a growing scarcity of potable water.
He has spoken about this at the EPA Large Production Builders Conference, and written about it in the APA Magazine. A the reference for his article for APA is noted on the slide.
We Will Have DevelopmentDemographic Pressures Will Drive D