crafting & designing programs by practitioner's for a safer future

Download Crafting & Designing Programs by Practitioner's for a Safer Future

Post on 16-Feb-2017

223 views

Category:

Environment

0 download

Embed Size (px)

TRANSCRIPT

  • Edward A. Thomas Esq. PresidentNatural Hazard Mitigation Association (NHMA)

    July 23, 2015Natural Hazard Mitigation Association

    International Hazard Mitigation Practitioners Symposium

    Crafting and Designing Programs By Practitioners for a Safer Future

    *

  • On behalf of:

    Ed Thomas, PresidentNatural Hazard Mitigation Association

    This presentation is not and cannot be technical engineering or legal advice, nor does this portion necessarily represent the views of anyone other the presenter.

    Howdy!

    We are Pro-Good, Thoughtful Development Which Does Not Harm People and Property

    ET: Do we need to make the last point?

    MM: No, but wouldnt hurt to make the point verbally in your presentation: Our presentations are based on general principles of law, engineering, policy and emergency management MM: Use this slide to introduce yourself. If more than one presenter, add a slide for each and put the notice on the last slide.*

  • Approaching Our Problems TogetherAs we think in a systems analysis manner to solve our serious problems we must including sea level rise and climate variability, uncertainty and climate change.We must stop making things worse!We need to work with many persons and groups to solve our serious disaster, water resources, and other related issues.Right now we have a system which rewards dangerous behavior.Yet, some placeslike Tulsa, Oklahoma; Metropolitan Denver, through the work of the UDFCD; Charlotte- Mecklenburg County, North Carolina and othersare heroically overcoming obstacles and reducing losses.First some thoughts on disasters, Flood Insurance, and opportunities for change

    Note FEMA sponsorship and financial help etcET: list up for review when we talk*

  • Report on the 2013 Colorado FloodsReally excellent analysis which clearly shows the advantages of the thoughtful, collaborative, systematic approach and of the UDFCD over the past 40+ years

  • Three Major Situations We See When Dealing With Development Issues in Hazardous Locations a) undeveloped property, which gives us the best chance to get things right;

    b) existing development which gives us challenging, but possible opportunities for preparedness, retrofitting, etc. to reduce the risks and consequences of natural events;

    c) redevelopment of property following a disaster using the Living Mosaic" of available processes and programs.

  • Dramatic Increases in Flood and Wind Disasters

    Trends in Damages Following Natural Events

    Dramatic increases in Wind, Flood, Earthquake, and Wildfire losses

    But not so for geophysical events. Why?*

  • *

    Overall and Insurance Losses in the US 1980 2013, US $ billions

    US$ bn

    200

    150

    100

    50

    *

  • Flood losses increasing?This was not supposed to happen!The Flood Insurance Program was designed to reduce such losses.In 1976 a HUD sponsored economic analysis predicted that by the year 2000 or 2025 flood losses would begin to decline.I believe that the NFIP is the most cost effective program of Hazard Mitigation in the history of the Nation.Colorado has been a National Leader in reducing flood losses.Can the NFIP be improved?Is it now being improved?What happened?What can we do?

    If time tell story of South Florida Building codes and Andrew.What happened clean water act.. demographics, people living where they want [tell ET & Kathy Lee in floodplain story if time *

  • Disaster Risk Reduction and Flood InsuranceFEMA has programs to help owners reduce their risk and save money on flood insuranceCommunity-wide discounts through the Community Rating System (CRS)FEMA grant programs support rebuilding and relocatingUse of higher deductibles to lower premium costs

    The smartest way to save is to build higher!

    Well, unless you have steep slopes as described in Brian Varellas brilliant webinar for the Natural Floodplain Functions Alliance (NFFA):http://www.aswm.org/-nffa/1790-webinars

    (MAKE THIS INTERACTIVE ask how many present know of these programs, are their clients aware of them?)CRS discounts are not affected by BW-12. If your community participates in the CRS program, savings may apply. Grant programs may also be available to support rebuilding or relocating depending on the States priorities for use of grant funding. Higher deductibles can also lower premium costs, however, policyholders will be financially responsible for that expense at the time of loss. It is important that you maintain documentation in your files of your policyholders request. *

  • Excellent Webinar on Floodplain Management, Wildfires & Development in Mountain AreasPreventing Flood Disasters from Becoming Disastrous Brian Varrella, Chair, Colorado Association of Stormwater and Floodplain Managers Located at:http://www.aswm.org/-nffa/1790-webinars

  • USACE SlideCourtesy of Pete Rabbon

    *

  • Initial RiskNo or Inadequate Warning/Evacuation PlanSea Level Rise and Upstream Development Increases Flood HeightsLack of Awareness of Flood Hazard, Absence of Flood, Business Interruption, and DIC InsuranceCritical Facilities Not Properly Protected From FloodingIncreased Development: more people and more costly development Buildings & Infrastructure Not Properly Designed or Maintained

    Vastly Increased Residual RiskRISKRisk Increase Factors

    Note: CLICK to advance bullets and arrows*

  • Residential/ commercialOil and gasInfrastructure/ EnvironmentalElectric utility**********

    Lets Take a Few Minutes to Discuss Efficient Resilience OptionsTotal0.71.31.60.70.53.30.73.81.0**********1 Total capital and operational costs, discounted, across 20 years2Total loss averted, discounted, across 20 years 3 Included despite high C/B ratios due to strong co-benefits, risk aversion*Many thanks to Cynthia McHale of CERES for this informationBut, what form of mitigation/adaptation is missing from list?

    Chart1

    8819.1020429159

    1517.5744107042

    1939.2799471531

    4442.4424894683

    14167.4999055758

    8818.0681694583

    3837.4591183697

    9769.8671284497

    15078.8061160668

    20154.1115892795

    Sheet1

    8819.1020429159

    1517.5744107042

    1939.2799471531

    4442.4424894683

    14167.4999055758

    8818.0681694583

    3837.4591183697

    9769.8671284497

    15078.8061160668

    20154.1115892795

    Chart1

    6083.2794141748

    1051.5293677879

    6421.1766790034

    16982.7917069459

    10494.652794259

    11076.2724601925

    6292.7440322068

    5202.2083112683

    14964.6347315913

    22795.9002561257

    Sheet1

    6083.2794141748

    1051.5293677879

    6421.1766790034

    16982.7917069459

    10494.652794259

    11076.2724601925

    6292.7440322068

    5202.2083112683

    14964.6347315913

    22795.9002561257

  • How Can We Accomplish Disaster Risk ReductionMany folks tell me that there are insufficient funds for Hazard Mitigation/Climate Adaptation/Disaster Risk Reduction

    Do you at least sort of agree with the old saying that Well Begun is Half Done?

    If so, is Half-Done very, very Well Begun?

  • ** Demographic Trends: The Future

    Dr. Arthur Chris Nelson, FAICP at the Rocky Mountain Land Use Institute March 13, 2015More than half of the built environment of the United States we will see in 2050 does not exist in today.Update on information contained in: Journal of the American Planning Association,

    Vol. 72, No. 4, Autumn 2006.

    **Among the demographic projections he makes:

    1) the US will be the fastest growing Nation in the world, except India only, (in sheer numbers not percentage) over the next 30 or so years. Our next 100 million population should come in about 20 years. It took 37 years to get from US 200 million to the new total of 300 million. To be clear, he says we will be growing in sheer numbers faster than China or Indonesia.

    2) our need for housing and commercial space is going to change dramatically by type-from low % of lot coverage to high % coverage. The implications of this are huge from a floodplain management perspective: building construction that will have higher value per acre; including construction which will generally require closed pipe stormwater flow, as well as excellent engineering and planning for stormwater and floodplain management purposes. In general this new wave of development even less forgiving of ignoring natural processes than out current construction.

    3) other observations: a) housing demand will be for more units per acre-townhouse, condo, shopping malls that go from .2 usable space per acre ratio to somewhere between 1.6 and 2.0 ratio of usable space per occupied acre. (high value-tight spaces-high runoff-low storage w/o NAI planning;b) he says that housing built post WWII should have a life expectancy of around 150 years;c) shopping malls with traditional parking lots have a life expectancy of about 12-20 years; and will be likely redeveloped into much higher density and value malls;d) demand for homes on large lots (greater than 7,000 sq. ft.) will drop to the point that these homes may be white elephants;e) demand for condos, single family housing will soar.

    4) Dr. Nelson did not mention this, but it is also worth noting that much of this rapid development and re-development will take place in the Arid West, and other areas which will have a growing scarcity of potable water.

    He has spoken about this at the EPA Large Production Builders Conference, and written about it in the APA Magazine. A the reference for his article for APA is noted on the slide.

  • **

  • We Will Have DevelopmentDemographic Pressures Will Drive D