country profile

www.prohonduras.hn 1

January 2015

www.prohonduras.hn2

www.prohonduras.hn4


OBJECTIVES AND GOALS OF THE COUNTRY’S VISION

SCENARIO: In 2038, Honduras has a cohesive and including society that has erradicated extreme poverty and reduced poverty up to 10%. Inequality levels in terms of income will have been reduced, and the means will have been created for all Hondurans, namely those with the lowest incomes, to have equal access to services with quality in education and health, professional formation, social security and basic services. Honduras will have a consolidated social pension model, protecting the most vulnerable groups of the country.

SCENARIO: In 2038, Honduras will have consolidated Regional Development as it’s economic and social growth model under the framework of an environmentally sustainable process. The territorial development plans in each region, will have become the regulating and normative instrument for productive investment, social development and investment in infrastructure, with intervention harmony among Central Government Institutions and the municipalities of each region. The physical and environmental vulnerability will have been reduced by 75%. Honduras will be the Central American leading country in logistics, transportation, maquila, tourism, and soustainable use of natural resources services, generating energy, food, minerals and forestry by-products as no other country in the region. Entrepreuneurialship and productive quality will be part of the cultural pro�le of the average Honduran.

SCENARIO: By 2038, Honduras will have a modern, normative and e�cient Government, decentralized at the municipal level and evolving in terms of administrative facilitation, and consolidated in terms of legal security for citizens, businesses and investors in a transparent manner. The Civil Service will have been perfected and public servants will be highly professionalized. The country will have a consolidated international image after developing a country image internal and external program and the transformation of the diplomatic and consular corps into the �rst front to promote exports, tourism and investment opportunities in Honduras.

SCENARIO: In 2038, Honduras will continue growing in a representative and participatory democracy, using plebiscites and referendums as forms of citizen participation for the most important issues of the country. The rights of the population will be e�ectively recognized and there will be access to an integrted, e�ective and expeditious justice system and a safe environment with reduced levels of criminality. The Property rights system will be fully consolidated and all land holders will have titles that credit them as owners. The State will have modern security bodies supported with intelligence and integrity systems, with coordinated and sound institutions. The Armed Forces will guarantee the Constitution and Defend our Sovereignty. The State will be fundamentally in charge of mantaining and defending freedom of speach and the individual liberties, as well as the economic liberties.

A PRODUCTIVE HONDURAS, GENERATING OPPORTUNITIES

AND DECENT JOBS, THAT USE RESOURCES IN A

SUSTAINABLE MANNER AND REDUCES ENVIRONMENTAL

VULNERABILITY.

A MODERN,RESPONSIBLE, EFFICIENT ANDCOMPETITIVE

STATE

HONDURAS WITHOUT EXTREME POVERTY,

EDUCATED AND HEALTHY WITH CONSOLIDATED

PENSION SYSTEMS

A HONDURASDEVELOPING IN

DEMOCRACY WIH SAFETY AND WITHOUT VIOLENCE

www.prohonduras.hn6

Goal 1.1: Erradicate Extreme Poverty.Goal 1.2: Reduce to less than 15% the percentage of Households in poverty situation.Goal 1.3: Increase average schooling to 9 years.Goal 1.4: A 95% health coverage in all levels of the system.Goal 1.5: Having a Universal retirement and pension regime for 90% of employees in Honduras.

A PRODUCTIVE HONDURAS, GENERATING OPPORTUNITIES

AND DECENT JOBS, THAT USE RESOURCES IN A

SUSTAINABLE MANNER AND REDUCES ENVIRONMENTAL

VULNERABILITY.

Goal 3.1: Reduce the open unemployment rate to 2% and the invisible underemployment rate to 5% of the occupied population.Goal 3.2: Increase Exports of Goods and Services to 75% of the GNP.Goal 3.3: Increase to 80% the renewable energy participation in the country's power genertion grid.Goal 3.4: Reaching 400,000 hectares of agriculture land with irrigation systems, satisfying food security in 100%.Goal 3.5: Increase the rate of Rational Use of Water from 5 to 25%.Goal 3.6: 1.5 million hectares of forestry oriented land under ecologic restauration and 500,000 hectares with access to the global carbon bonds market.Goal 3.7: To reach a Global Climate Risk Index for Honduras above 50.

Goal 4.1: Improve Honduras rating under the Global Competitiveness index to 5.5.Goal 4.2: Reach a decentralization level for municipal level Public Investment of 40%.Goal 4.3: 90% of the public officer under a stable civil regime service that rewards competence, capacity and performance.Goal 4.4: Develop electronic processes for citizen service in State institutions.Goal 4.5: Placing Honduras in the segment of 90-100 of the percentil scale of the WB Corruption Control Index.

A MODERN,RESPONSIBLE, EFFICIENT ANDCOMPETITIVE

STATE

HONDURAS WITHOUT EXTREME POVERTY,

EDUCATED AND HEALTHY WITH CONSOLIDATED

PENSION SYSTEMS

Goal 2.1: Seven democratic, continuos and transparent proceses held since 2009.Goal 2.2: Reduce criminality levels to a levels below the international average.Goal 2.3: Reduce the Social Con�ictivity Index to less than 6.Goal 2.4: Reduce to less than 5% the non-legal land occupation index.Goal 2.5: Improve border protection as a condition for external dissuation and increase internal trust.Goal 2.6: Reduce to half the number of landless farmer families.

A HONDURASDEVELOPING IN

DEMOCRACY WIH SAFETY AND WITHOUT VIOLENCE.

www.prohonduras.hn8

4.5

6.2 6.1 6.6 6.2

4.2

-2.1

2.8 3.8 3.9

2.6

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

SOURCE: CENTRAL BANK OF HONDURAS (2013)

GDP Growth (Inter Anual variation in Constan terms)

6.5 5.6 5.4 4.9

!"

#"

$!"

$#"

%!"

%#"

&!"

&#"

'!"

Dic- 10 Dic- 11 Dic- 12 Dic- 13

Fuente: Banco Central de Honduras (2013)

Contribution to the IPC by heading (Inter Annual percentage Variation)

EDUCATION LODGING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS AND OTHER FUELS

FURNITURE AND ITEMS FOR HOUSEHOLD MAINTENANCE CLOTHING AND SHOES

ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO FOOD AND NON ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES

OTHERS INFLATION


-13.1

5.4 7.3 3.9 0.8

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

FUENTE: BANCO CENTRAL DE HONDURAS (2013)

Contibution to the Global Demand Growth (Inter annual percentage variation)

EXTERNAL DEMAND DOMESTIC INVESTMENT PRIVATE CONSUMPTION PUBLIC CONSUMPTION GLOBAL DEMAND

4.4 4.4

7.6

6.5

4.3

8.7

4.4

2.6 1.9

6.6

9.9

3.9

6.5

4.3

-2.5

1.4

6.4

4

1.8

5.5

1.6

SOURCE: CENTRAL BANK OF HONDURAS (2014)

GDP by Economic Sector (Inter annual percentage variation) 2011 2012 2013

CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURE COMUNICATIONS AGRICULTURE COMERCE FINANCIAL INST. TRANSPORT

www.prohonduras.hn10

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

COFFEE

SUGAR

ZINC

BANANA

PALM OIL

FARM SHRIMPS

TEXTILES

PAPER AND CARDBOARD

LOBSTER

FUENTE: CENTRAL BANK OF HONDURAS (2013)

E ect Volume and Price in the Variation of Products Exports Selected

VOLUME PRICE

15.31 16.05

17.07 17.93

18.81 19.03 19.03 19.03 19.03 19.03 19.03 19.14 20.07

20.74 21.63

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

0

5

10

15

20

25

Dic-2000 Dic-2002 Dic-2004 Dic-2006 Dic-2008 Dic-2010 Dic-2012 Dic-2014

Fuente: Central Bank of Honduras (2013)

Nominal Exchange Rate (Lempiras for US$1.00 y porcentages)

Nominal Rate of Exchange

Inter annual rate of exchange Depreciation (Right Axis)


0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: Central Bank of Honduras (2013)

Imports of Goods (In millions of US$ and as percentage of the total)

General Merchandise Manufactured Goods

-9.1

-15.4

-3.8 -4.3

-8 -8.5 -8.9

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: World Bank (2013)

Evolution of the Current Account and Balance of Trade in Goods and Services

Balance of Trade in Goods and Services Current Account

20.1

17.2 16.8 15.9 15.7

16.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


Family Remittances (Flows in millions of US$ as a percentage of GDP)

Family remittances % GDP (right axis)


0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

dic-08 dic-09 dic-10 dic-11 dic-12 dic-13


Foreign Public Debt (Balance in Million of US$ and as Percentage of GDP)

Saldo %PIB (right axis)

1900

2100

2300

2500

2700

2900

3100

3300

3500

3700

Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic


Net International Reserves 2011 2012

2013 2014


8,400 8,712 8,777 8,625 3.7 3.8 3.9 2.6 1,969 2,155 2,208 2,161 1.8 6.5 10.7 4.3 22 24.1 3.4 -9.2 3.9 4.3 3.6 3.9 4.7 6.8 5.2 5.2

6.5 5.6 5.4 4.9 18.9 18.1 19.2 20.3 -4.8 -3.5 -2.8 -5.1 6,264.1 7,977.0 8,273.7 7,856.6 7,127.7 9,016.2 9,385.3 9,213.2 -954.8 -1,408.3 -1,586.9 -1,655.1 -4.3 -8.0 -8.6 -8.9 3.7 4.2 4.8 6.6 19.03 19.05 19.64 20.5 19.03 19.14 20.07 20.74 24.96 26.46 25.20 27.16

25.28 24.68 26.38 28.43

Real GDP (in US dollars) Growth of real GDP GDP per capita (in US dollars) Added Agricultural Value Gross capital generation growth Unemployment rate In�ation rate (average)

In�ation rate (yearly) Weighted average of local currency loan rate Central Government Balance Exports of Goods ( FOB) Imports of Goods (CIF) Current Account Balance ( US$ millions) Current Account Balance (% GDP) Foreign debt (end of the period US$ billions) Exchange rate US$ (average) Exchange rate US$ (end of the period) Exchange rate Euro (average) Exchange rate Euro (end of the period)

Concepto

Statistics on the economic behavior of Honduras

2010 2011 2012 2013


Name of the Treaty Date signed Date of coming into force Free Trade Agreement between the United Mexican States and the Republics of Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala

June 29, 2000 July 1, 2001

Central America – Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement

April 16, 1998 (1st Protocol) November 29, 1998 (2nd Protocol) February 04, 2000 (3rd Protocol)

December 19, 2001

Dominican Republic, Central America – United States of America Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA)

August 2004 April 1, 2006

Central America-Chile Free Trade Agreement October 18, 1999 Bi-lateral Protocol: November 22, 2005

July 19, 2008

Honduras, El Salvador and Taiwan Free Trade Agreement May 7, 2007 July 15, 2008

Central America – Panama Free Trade Agreement

February 6, 2002 Bi-lateral Protocol: June 15, 2007

January 8, 2008

CA3 Free Trade Agreement (Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala) – Colombia

August 9, 2007 March 26, 2010

Partnership agreement between Central America and the European Union

June 29, 2012 August 1,2013

Free Trade Agreement CA4 – Canada November 5, 2013 October 1, 2014

Name of the Treaty Negotiation stage Free Trade Agreement between Central America and CARICOM In process of negotiation

Name of the Treaty Date signed State Type of Agreement/Treaty WTO member January1st y,1995 In force Multilateral Central American Common Market member (CACM)

December13, 1960 In force Customs Union

Treaties and Agreements currently being negotiated:


Fuente: Private participation in infraestructure Projects Database, World Bank.

Sector Sub-Sector Numerosde Proyectos

Inversión Total

Energía Electricidad 4 593.3

Telecomunicaciones Telecomunicaciones 1 348.0Transporte Puertos 1 624.3

Carreteras 2 525.0

TOTAL 8 2,090.6

Total de Proyectos de Infraestructura con Participación Privada. (Por Sector en US$ Millones)


511.3 477.5 452.2

280.9 144.6 129.4

-77.2

114.4 229.3

-200 -100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

2012 2013 p/ 2014 p/

Source: Central Bank of Honduras (2015) p/ Preliminary, subject to revision

FDI Composition by instruments (In millon of US$)

Other Capital

Shares and Other Equity Stock

Re-invested Utilities

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 p/ 2014 p/

Source: Central Bank of Honduras (2015) p/ Preliminary, subjet to revision

Distribution of FDI by Type of Activity (In millon of US$)

Transport, Storage and Telecomunications Assembly Plants Services Manufacturing Industry Others

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600

2011

2012

2013 p/

2014 p/

Source: Central Bank of Honduras (2014) p/ Preliminar, subject to revision

Origin of FDI (In millones of US$)

Other Countries

Europe

Latin America

North America


477.5

144.6

114.4

FDI per Instrument in 2013 (Preliminary gures in millon de US$)

Re-invested utilities

Shares and Stocks

Other Capital


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