countermeasures against natural disasters based on human diversity

Unit for Liveable Cities, Graduate School of Engineering/Medicine, KYOTO UNIVERSITY

京都大学大学院　工学研究科・医学研究科　安寧の都市ユニット

CHAPTER 5EARTHQUAKE PROTECTION

AND EMERGENCY RESPONSES

COUNTERMEASURES AGAINST NATURAL DISASTERS BASED ON

HUMAN DIVERSITY

Maki Koyama [email protected]

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2014/8/8

MS-1: Disaster and Health Risk Management for Liveable City



2

Introduction



3

http://www.preventionweb.net/files/31685_factsheet2012.pdf



Percentage of people killedby natural disasters by region4

http://www.preventionweb.net/files/31685_factsheet2012.pdf



Natural Disaster by Country5



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7



Introduction8

1855 Ansei Edo EQ.This is owned by Tokyo Univ. Library.



Seismic dense zone Seismic dense zones overlap with plate

boundaries

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IndonesiaMyanmar

Thai

Vietnam

Bangladesh

Japan



Plate boundaries

The earth’s surface is made up of a series of plates

10

Japan

Indonesia

Bangladesh

Myanmar

ThaiVietnam



2011 Tohoku EQ.11

ABC News

Japan Earthquake Pictures, Video. Disaster in the Pacific 3/11/2011

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nTlgtf7TME



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Hazard vs Risk



Hazard and Risk

A hazard is any source of potential damage, harm or adverse health effects on something or someone under certain conditions at work.

Risk is the chance or probability that a person will be harmed or experience an adverse health effect if exposed to a hazard. It may also apply to situations with property or equipment loss.

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http://www.ccohs.ca/oshanswers/hsprograms/hazard_risk.html



Hazard

Earthquake hazard refers to the shaking motion that strikes at a particular area.

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http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/map/?lang=en

http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/map/?lang=en



Risk

Earthquake risk corresponds to the estimated value of the damage considering the vulnerability of the population, buildings, and societal infrastructure.

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0 35

km

70

PEXMAP 岐阜県の円グラフ650,000325,00065,000

6震度弱6震度強7震度

Hazard PopulationBuilding stocksVulnerabilityProbability

Risk



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Population



Population Pyramid

Japan

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http://populationpyramid.net/



Population Pyramid

World

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Population Pyramid

South Eastern Asia

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Fatality rate by 2011 Tohoku EQ20

rise suddenly



Aging

In the world, many countries’ populations now tend to be aging due to longevity brought about by improved medical services and public sanitation, and due to declining birth rates brought about by social structure changes.

Japan is one of the countries that are aging most rapidly. According to the United Nations’ estimate, other Asian countries will also be rapidly aging in the future.

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Discussion

Introduce your country’s situation about population balance (e.g. decreasing birthrate, aging population and so on), each other.

If you have some questions, please ask questions and get answers each other.

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10 minutes



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Nursing care



Nursing care level determination system

Segment Rough standard of condition

Support Required: Level 1

The person can conduct basic activities of daily living almost independently. To support the activities of daily living and to inhibit deterioration of the current condition, and for prevention of a long-term care required condition, a certain level of support for instrumental activities of daily living shall be provided.(He/she can operate basic activities of daily living almost independently. A low level of support to prevent a long-term care required condition in the future is necessary.)

Support Required: Level 2

The person in Support Required: Level 1 loses the capacity for instrumental activities of daily living slightly, and needs a certain level of support.(Although he/she needs a low level of support for daily living, he/she will be able to maintain or improve bodily functions by using the nursing-care services.)

Long-Term Care Required: Level 1

The person in Support Required: Level 2 loses the capacity for instrumental activities of daily living partially, and needs support for some parts of daily living.(He/she cannot stand up or walk firmly. He/she can go about his/her daily living almost independently, but needs partial support for toilet activities and bathing.)

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Nursing care level determination system25

Segment Rough standard of condition


In addition to the condition of Long-Term Care Required: Level 1, the person also needs partial support for activities of daily living.(He/she cannot stand up or walk without help, and needs partial or full support for toilet activities and bathing.)


Compared to the condition of Long-Term Care Required: Level 2, the person significantly loses both the capacity for activities of daily living and instrumental activities of daily living, and needs almost full nursing care.(He/she cannot stand up or walk without help, and needs full support for toilet activities, bathing, and changing clothes.)


In addition to the condition of Long-Term Care Required: Level 3, the person seriously loses the capacity to move and finds it difficult to perform activities of daily living without nursing care.(His/her capacity for activities of daily living is totally deteriorated, and he/she needs full support for toilet activities, bathing, and changing clothes as well as partial support at mealtimes. He/she finds difficulty in performing activities of daily living without nursing care.)


He/she loses the capacity to move further than the condition of Long-Term Care Required: Level 4, and almost completely cannot perform activities of daily living without nursing.)(He/she needs full support for overall activities of daily living. He/she finds it difficult to communicate with others and cannot perform activities of daily living without nursing care.)



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Welfare facilities

Facilities for social welfare for the aged in Japan cannot receive all of the people who need long-term care.

Even if a sufficient number of facilities are built for the rapidly increasing amount of aged people, it is expected that these facilities will only be necessary for a short period because a decrease in overall population will become more acute in the future.

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At facility / In home

The Japanese government is taking steps to let people who need long-term care continue living at their residences with promotion of in-home nursing care services.

Although the number of people with the official certification of need for long-term care (who use the facilities) has not changed largely since 2007, the number of users of in-home long-term services is increasing.

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This trend shows that the number of people who need support from others in a time of disaster (in other words, the number of people who need support within the region) is increasing.

The number of beneficiaries with official certification of need for long-term care who use long-term care services at home and at facilities



The number of households30

The trend towards nuclear families has increased as the life-style of Japanese families has changed; the number of family members per household is decreasing, while the rate of aged people living alone is rapidly increasing.



Trend of aged people living alone31



Importance of software-oriented countermeasures

These results mean regional disaster recovery capabilities are rapidly deteriorating.

Japan is a disaster-prone country, and as such, is promoting the improvement of earthquake-proof structures and development of embankments and river environments.

It is one of the countries with the most effective countermeasures against natural disasters.

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However, the reduction of tax revenues due to the depression for the last 20 years and reduction of human resources due to rapid population aging make it more difficult than in previous times to enhance hardware, especially structures.

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Therefore, the importance of software-oriented countermeasures focusing on human behaviors, such as self-help and cooperation of residents, is increasing.

The number of people requiring support within the region is now rapidly increasing.

Accordingly, the necessity of software-oriented countermeasures is increasing further.

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35

Disease and Care



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Caring for Bedridden Residents37

Movie



Living with Dementia38

Movie



Cause of the official certification of need for long-term care is different, required care is different.

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Discussion

Many elderly people who requires nursing care live in their home.

Each people need different care because their circumstances are different.

Many of them live alone. However, disaster will attack this area.

Please discuss about the problems and solutions to reduce difficulties.

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Cause of death under an earthquake

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Cause-specific mortality rates1995 Great Hanshin-Awaji EQ.

Death occurred within 10 minutes of being crushed

Therefore, most of these deaths occurred before a rescue team could arrive at the site.

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crushing83.3%

burning12.8%

other3.9%

From the Hyogo prefectural medical examiner (1995)



コード番号： 9012

1995 Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake



Cause-specific mortality rates2011 Great Tohoku EQ.

Drowning refers to both deaths caused by asphyxiation in water, and those resulting from being crushed by tsunami debris such as cars and drifting buildings.

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drowning92.4%

crushing4.4%

burning1.1%

unknown2.0%

From the National Police Agency of Japan (2011)



Cause-specific mortality rates for the victims of earthquake and tsunami

Both crushing and drowning are closely associated with asphyxiation.

This indicates we are unlikely to rescue many people after an earthquake.

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crushing83.3%

burning12.8%

other3.9%

drowning92.4%

crushing4.4%

burning1.1%

unknown2.0%

Mode Cause of death Life-spanMode1 asphyxiation 5 - 6 minutesMode2 head injury 2 - 3 hoursMode3 abdominal injury 3 - 12 hoursMode4 limb injury more than 24 hoursMode5 intact about 3 days

Lif

e ch

arac

teri

stic

val

ue (asphyxiation) starvation,dehydration

(Dead)

(Alive)

Ohta et al., 2001



Mortality rates and SAR

SAR(Search and Rescue)

24hours

46L

ife

char

acte

rist

ic v

alue

Family or neighbor

Rescue teamSelf Defense Force

Kobe EQ (1995)

Alive

Dead



Generally, as a nation or region is increasingly developed and improved, the demand for social systems based on residents’ diversity rises.

How to consider the situation under a disaster?

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Report

Describe countermeasures against natural disasters based on the diversity of local residents.

“Diversity of residents” means the coexistence of people with various characteristics and values, such as aged people, people with disabilities, women, foreigners, and laity of various religions.

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countermeasures against natural disasters based on human diversity

Education