countering violent extremism and radical rhetoriccountering violent extremism and radical rhetoric...

Countering Violent Extremism and Radical Rhetoric

Tamar Mitts

Assistant ProfessorSchool of International and Public Affairs

Data Science InstituteColumbia University

February 1, 2019

Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism

A ‘Soft’ Approach to Combat Terrorism

Traditionally, CT has focused on repression of militant groups

Arrests, violent interrogations, air strikes of militant training camps,targeted assassinations...

In recent years, growing view that CT alone is insufficient to combatterrorism

Backlash can result in increased level of violence

Growing channels of recruitment via the Internet and social media

Rapid global investment in ‘soft’ measures to counter terrorism,commonly referred to as countering violent extremism, or CVE


What is CVE?

“Proactive actions to counter efforts by extremists to recruit,radicalize, and mobilize followers to violence.”

(Department of Homeland Security CVE Task Force)

Page 7 GAO-17-300 Countering Violent Extremism

In October 2016, the federal government defined the U.S. approach to countering violent extremism as proactive actions to counter efforts by extremists to recruit, radicalize, and mobilize followers to violence. The three parts of the U.S. approach to CVE efforts are: (1) empowering communities and civil society; (2) messaging and counter–messaging; and (3) addressing causes and driving factors. CVE activities are different from traditional counterterrorism efforts, such as collecting intelligence, gathering evidence, making arrests, and responding to incidents, in that they generally focus on preventing an individual from finding or acting out on a motive for committing a crime, as shown in figure 3. In February 2015, the White House released a fact sheet stating that CVE encompasses the preventative aspects of counterterrorism as well as interventions to undermine the attraction of violent extremist movements and ideologies that seek to promote violence.

Figure 3: Countering Violent Extremism is Different from Counterterrorism

According to the national strategy, CVE actions intend to address the conditions and reduce the factors that most likely contribute to recruitment and radicalization by violent extremists. CVE efforts, as defined by the White House, are not to include gathering intelligence or performing investigations for the purpose of criminal prosecution. CVE efforts aim to address the root causes of violent extremism through community engagement, including:

The U.S. Approach to Countering Domestic Violent Extremism


How Does CVE Relate to CT?

Measure

Repressive(‘Hard’)

Rebel group

Proactive

Targeted killings,air strikes

Defensive

Hardening targets,border security

Population

Blockades,home demolitions,collateral damage

Non-repressive(‘Soft’)

Rebel group

Negotiations,concessions

Population

CVE


Dramatic Increase in National Action Plans to CounterViolent Extremism


Extremist groups use social media extensively

Groups using online platforms range from jihadists to whitenationalists to neo-Nazi supporters

Many use the Internet and social media to

Interact with other supporters

Consume and spread violent, extremist content

Organize violent activity


Example #1: Pittsburgh synagogue shooter on Gab,posting before his attack


Example #2: ISIS activist on Twitter, posting to followersfrom Syria

Figure S15: Example of ISIS accounts

1/14/16, 9:49 AMGreenBirdDabiq (@greenbirddabiq2) | Twitter

Page 1 of 8https://twitter.com/greenbirddabiq2

GreenBirdDabiq@greenbirddabiq2

Muhajirah living for the sake of Allah |Sham | Raqqa | DM for Kik/Surepot |Back from Suspension

Blessed land of Khilafah

7 Photos and videos

Tweet to GreenBirdDabiq

GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 30 Dec 2015"@GuyNamedSalmaan: Brothers, have you done anything to deserve a wife today?". LOL. I think the answer is usually " no."

1

GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 30 Dec 2015"It's OK. It was done by Assad."

2 2

GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 30 Dec 2015Why is it that the Nusayri regime gets a free pass to commit war crimes? Are Assad's barrel bombs not real?

Tweets Tweets & replies Photos & videosGreenBirdDabiq@greenbirddabiq2

TWEETS

36FOLLOWING

75FOLLOWERS

497LIKES

6 Follow

Home Moments Notifications Messages Search Twitter

47

Figure S16: Example of a Western fighter tweeting from Syria



GreenBirdDabiq@greenbirddabiq2

Muhajirah living for the sake of Allah |Sham | Raqqa | DM for Kik/Surepot |Back from Suspension

Blessed land of Khilafah

7 Photos and videos

Tweet to GreenBirdDabiq

GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 30 Dec 2015"@GuyNamedSalmaan: Brothers, have you done anything to deserve a wife today?". LOL. I think the answer is usually " no."

1

GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 30 Dec 2015"It's OK. It was done by Assad."

2 2

GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 30 Dec 2015Why is it that the Nusayri regime gets a free pass to commit war crimes? Are Assad's barrel bombs not real?

Tweets Tweets & replies Photos & videosGreenBirdDabiq@greenbirddabiq2

TWEETS

36FOLLOWING

75FOLLOWERS

497LIKES

6 Follow

Home Moments Notifications Messages Search Twitter



GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 23 Dec 2015

A few stray cats I have been feeding lately. #RaqqaCats

8

GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 23 Dec 2015As Muslims we love the prophet Isa but know that he was not the son of God.

5 1


The kuffar divided Muslims for too long. Now that we are rallying to one banner they are frightened.



are frightened. 5 3

GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 22 Dec 2015Delicious takeout last night--stuffed aubergine :). #NotMissingWesternFastFoodTrash

1

GreenBirdDabiq Retweeted@Alfakhiri !"18 · +*س) 'لفاخ Dec 2014Emirates hotel put a Christmas tree worth $11 million in Abu Dhabi #UAE meanwhile Syria's children starve.

126 36

GreenBirdDabiq RetweetedEmergency Kittens @EmrgencyKittens · 14 Dec 2015me



2.3K 3.9K


Beautiful sunrise outside of Raqqa.

8 10

GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 15 Dec 2015The Saudi apostate coalition really has me laughing.

3


I've said it once and I'll say it again. There are no Muslim democratic countries. Elections are haram and a usurpation of Allah's rule.

8 9

GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 4 Dec 2015Remember to keep all Muslims prisoners in your duas. Now more than ever.

2 3

GreenBirdDabiq followed َ, Abu Maryam, Abu_Adamm#7 and 49 others



2.3K 3.9K


Beautiful sunrise outside of Raqqa.

8 10

GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 15 Dec 2015The Saudi apostate coalition really has me laughing.

3


I've said it once and I'll say it again. There are no Muslim democratic countries. Elections are haram and a usurpation of Allah's rule.

8 9

GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 4 Dec 2015Remember to keep all Muslims prisoners in your duas. Now more than ever.

2 3

GreenBirdDabiq followed َ, Abu Maryam, Abu_Adamm#7 and 49 others



@Maklclkkc

Follow

@Abu__Marryaam

And say: Truth has (now) arrived, andFalsehood perished: for Falsehood is (byits nature) bound to perish. [Quran17:81]

FollowAbu Maryam

GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 2 Dec 2015Seriously, the UK is sending eight planes after us?!?! I am literally dying with laughter. #UKFailedEmpire

1


If there is 1 thing I'm not afraid of, its another failed empire trying to destroy our Khilafah #RemainingExpanding

7 7

GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 1 Dec 2015Why is it that twitter accounts of crusaders and war-mongers are never suspended? Its enough to make me want to quit twitter entirely.

1

GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 29 Nov 2015"@AbiSalaahudeen: Life is temporary but jannah is forever" Amin

4

GreenBirdDabiq RetweetedAllah's Witness @Amriki_W8 · 25 Nov 2015Forget about your "moderate" title, strive for the cause of Allah from daybreak till sunset

2

GreenBirdDabiq Retweeted

Note: This account has already been suspended as of February 2016.

48


Many CVE Initiatives in the Tech Industry (Focus on ISIS)

2015: YouTube begins to redirect searches for ISIS content towardcounter-ISIS videos

2016: Twitter steps up efforts to suspend ISIS accounts

2017: Facebook announces the use of AI to help identifying terroristpropaganda

2017: Major tech companies collaborate to remove extremist contentfrom their platforms


The Big Question: Do All These Efforts Work?

We do not know.

Currently, very little rigorous evaluation of CVE programs

Empirical challenge: obtain measurable evidence of a ‘decrease’ insupport for violent ideologies

The absence of radical sympathies 6= decline in extremism

Innovations in social media research can shed light on this question


Case Study: Countering Violent Extremism in the UnitedStates

“Empowering Local Partners to Prevent Violent Extremism in theUnited States” launched by the Obama administration in 2011

Goal: strengthen the government’s engagement with localcommunities whose members may be targeted by violent groups

Increasing local communities’ understanding of extremism with training

Enhancing collaboration between communities and law enforcement

Building networks between public and private groups to counterextremism


DHS Community Engagement Program

The Office of Civil Rights and Civil Liberties (CRCL) in theDepartment of Homeland Security has been at the forefront of theseefforts in recent years

Periodic meetings between law enforcement and members of variousAmerican Arab, Muslim, South Asian, and Middle Easterncommunities

Working assumption among policymakers:

Community members with personal connections to radicalizingindividuals can detect early signs of extremism

Devise interventions to prevent violent extremism


Community Roundtables in Atlanta, GA and Phoenix, AZ

Photo credit: Islamic Speakers Bureau, Atlanta, Islamic Community Center of Phoenix.


Number of Community Engagement Events by Month


Did These Efforts Impact the Online Behavior of ISISSympathizers in the United States?

Draw on a large dataset of Islamic State sympathizers on Twitter

Over 47K accounts in the United States

Tweeting content sympathizing with ISIS, discussing life in ISISterritories or foreign fighters, or tweets relating to the Syrian civil war

Match with information on dozens of community engagement eventsheld by the Department of Homeland Security from 2014-2016

Examine whether community engagement events shaped subsequentpro-ISIS rhetoric in the areas where they are held


ISIS Sympathizers and DHS Community EngagementActivities in the United States


Community Engagement and Pro-ISIS Rhetoric


Diff-in-Diff Model

Yi ,j ,k = β1Pi ,j ,k + β2Tj ,k + β3(Pi ,j ,k × Tj ,k) + αk + εj (1)

Yi ,j ,k : pro-ISIS index for tweet i posted by user j surrounding event k

P: 0/1 dummy for tweets posted before or after the event

T : 0/1 dummy for users who are predicted in the event area or not


Diff-in-Diff Results

ISIS sympathizers located in areas where CVE events were heldsignificantly deceased posting of pro-ISIS content, up to a month after theevents

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

−0.

10−

0.05

0.00

0.05

Days after event

Coe

ffici

ent:

Pos

t x In

eve

nt a

rea


What do These Results Mean?

The decline in pro-ISIS rhetoric after community engagementactivities might be driven by

De-radicalization of ISIS sympathizers

Strategic behavior after becoming aware of government surveillance

Migration of ISIS sympathizers to private social media platforms

Self-censoring of extremist expression

Increased suspension of ISIS sympathizer accounts


Community Engagement and the Suppression of Pro-ISISRhetoric

The American CVE program primarily targeted Muslimcommunities

Critics argued that the program created a climate of fear in thesecommunities, discouraging the expression of political opinions

This might mean that individuals sympathizing with ISIS may havedecreased pro-ISIS rhetoric simply to avoid detection


Additional Tests

I examine whether ISIS sympathizers stopped using Twitter aftercommunity engagement events by looking at overall number of tweets

No change in the number of tweets postedThe only change is in the content of the tweets

−0.

4−

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

Coe

ffici

ent:

Pos

t x In

eve

nt a

rea

7 days 14 days 21 days


Additional Tests

I also examine whether ISIS sympathizers stopped followingpropaganda-disseminating accounts

I find a significant decrease in the number of accounts followed

−0.

10−

0.05

0.00

0.05

Coe

ffici

ent:

Pos

t x In

eve

nt a

rea



Additional Tests

The decrease in pro-ISIS rhetoric observed in event areas could alsobe the result of increased vigilance in event areas

I find that community engagement events were followed by significantlyhigher reporting and suspension of accounts located in event areas

−0.

005

0.00

50.

015

Reported to Twitter

Coe

ffici

ent:

Pos

t x In

eve

nt a

rea


−0.

001

0.00

10.

003

0.00

5

Suspended from Twitter

Coe

ffici

ent:

Pos

t x In

eve

nt a

rea



The American CVE Program Impacted the OnlineBehavior of ISIS Sympathizers on Twitter

After community engagement events, ISIS sympathizers:

Significantly decreased posting pro-ISIS content

Unfollowed accounts that disseminated propaganda

These results could be interpreted either as a sign ofde-radicalization or strategic behavior resulting from increasedawareness to government surveillance

Community engagement events increased vigilance in the areaswhere they were held, increasing reporting and suspension ofISIS-supporting accounts


Concluding Remarks

As investment in countering violent extremism increases, there is agrowing need to evaluate its effectiveness

While measuring a radicalization remains a challenge, social mediadata provides a useful window, especially when combing with ‘offline’data

More research is needed to shed light on whether the reduction inpro-ISIS rhetoric was caused by de-radicalization or by the suppressionof extremist expression


Thank you!

Tamar [email protected]


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