cooperation, conflict and complexity; india’s hydro-hegemony in south asia and challenges and...
TRANSCRIPT
Cooperation, conflict and complexity;India’s hydro-hegemony in South Asia and challenges and opportunities for water interactions
Paula HanaszPhD candidateAustralian National UniversityCrawford School of Public Policy
Agenda
2
Agenda
• Why water in South Asia?
2
Agenda
• Why water in South Asia?• How does conflict and cooperation
manifest in water interactions?
2
Agenda
• Why water in South Asia?• How does conflict and cooperation
manifest in water interactions?• What is complexity?
2
Agenda
• Why water in South Asia?• How does conflict and cooperation
manifest in water interactions?• What is complexity?• Who does India’s hydro-hegemony affect?
2
Agenda
• Why water in South Asia?• How does conflict and cooperation
manifest in water interactions?• What is complexity?• Who does India’s hydro-hegemony affect?• Where do the challenges and opportunities
lie?
2
Water in South Asia
3
Water in South Asia
• Fear of ‘water wars’ prevails
3
Water in South Asia
• Fear of ‘water wars’ prevails• India is perceived as a water
bully
3
Water in South Asia
• Fear of ‘water wars’ prevails• India is perceived as a water
bully• Lack of meaningful
multilateralism
3
Conflict & cooperation
4
Conflict & cooperation
4
Water wars are inevitable!
Conflict & cooperation
4
Water wars are inevitable!
Bah humbug! Water is a vector
for peace!
Conflict & cooperation
4
• Cooperation ≠ absence of conflict
Water wars are inevitable!
Bah humbug! Water is a vector
for peace!
Conflict & cooperation
4
• Cooperation ≠ absence of conflict• ‘water interactions’ better conveys
complexity
Water wars are inevitable!
Bah humbug! Water is a vector
for peace!
Complexity
5
Complexity
• Complex ≠ complicated
5
India’s hydro-hegemony
6
India’s hydro-hegemony
Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ Leadership
6
India’s hydro-hegemony
Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ LeadershipIndia + Nepal = missed opportunities
6
India’s hydro-hegemony
Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ LeadershipIndia + Nepal = missed opportunitiesIndia + Bhutan = positive sum outcomes
6
India’s hydro-hegemony
Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ LeadershipIndia + Nepal = missed opportunitiesIndia + Bhutan = positive sum outcomesIndia + Pakistan = securitisation of water
6
India’s hydro-hegemony
Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ LeadershipIndia + Nepal = missed opportunitiesIndia + Bhutan = positive sum outcomesIndia + Pakistan = securitisation of waterIndia + Bangladesh = corrosive disinterest
6
India’s hydro-hegemony
Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ LeadershipIndia + Nepal = missed opportunitiesIndia + Bhutan = positive sum outcomesIndia + Pakistan = securitisation of waterIndia + Bangladesh = corrosive disinterest--------------------------------------------------------
6
India’s hydro-hegemony
Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ LeadershipIndia + Nepal = missed opportunitiesIndia + Bhutan = positive sum outcomesIndia + Pakistan = securitisation of waterIndia + Bangladesh = corrosive disinterest--------------------------------------------------------GRAND TOTAL = neutral interactions
6
India’s hydro-hegemony
Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ LeadershipIndia + Nepal = missed opportunitiesIndia + Bhutan = positive sum outcomesIndia + Pakistan = securitisation of waterIndia + Bangladesh = corrosive disinterest--------------------------------------------------------GRAND TOTAL = neutral interactions ≠ water wars
6
Challenges & opportunities
7
Challenges & opportunities
• Fears of ‘water wars’
7
Challenges & opportunities
• Fears of ‘water wars’• False dichotomy of
conflict/cooperation
7
Challenges & opportunities
• Fears of ‘water wars’• False dichotomy of
conflict/cooperation
• Nuanced understanding of water interactions
7
Challenges & opportunities
• Fears of ‘water wars’• False dichotomy of
conflict/cooperation
• Nuanced understanding of water interactions
• Indian leadership of multilateral transboundary water management
7
Is India a hydro-hegemon?
9
Relative size
Political/economic/military power
Riparian position
Potential for water resource exploitation
Pillars of Hydro Hegemony
Power• Political• Economic• Military
Riparian position
Potential for water
resource exploitation
What are water interactions?
10
Cooperation intensity
Con
flict
inte
nsity
Low
Low
High
High
Confrontation of the issue
Ad hoc Technical Risk averting Risk-taking cooperation
Violised
Securitised/Opportunitised
Politicised
Non-politicised
TWINS amended from N. Mirumachi and J.A. Allan, 2007, ‘Revisiting Transboundary Water Governance: Power, Conflict, Cooperation and the Political Economy’ and M. Zeitoun and N. Mirumachi, 2008, ‘Transboundary water interaction 1: reconsidering conflict and cooperation’
Positive interactions
Negative interactions
Neutral interactions
Case study: India-Nepal TWINS
11
Cooperation intensity
Con
flict
inte
nsity
Low
Low
High
High
Confrontation of the issue
Ad hoc Technical Risk averting Risk-taking cooperation
Violised
Securitised/Opportunitised
Politicised
Non-politicised Positive interactions
Negative interactions
Neutral interactions1920
1950
’50s‘60s
1990
1996
2008