Consequence Wheel

Reporter: Jason C. Duria BEEd III-A

The Futures wheel is a

method for graphical

visualization of direct and indirect

future consequences of a

particular change or

development. It was invented by

Jerome C. Glenn in 1971, when

he was a student at the Antioch

Graduate School of Education

(now Antioch University New

England).

Usage

The Futures wheel is usually used toorganize thoughts about a futuredevelopment or trend. Possible impactscan be collected and put down in astructured way. The use of interconnectinglines makes it possible to visualizeinterrelationships of the causes andresulting changes. Futures wheels canassist in developing multi-concepts aboutpossible future development by offering afutures-conscious perspective and aidingin group brainstorming.

How to do it?

The first step in creating a

future wheel is to select and

refine the issue statement that

will be evaluated. This is not

the specific change or event to

be mapped, but rather the

specific context of that change.

Step 1 – Define Issue

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Step 2 – Identify Event(s)

Select one or more specific

trends, events, or actions you

wish to evaluate with a Futures

Wheel. Each specific trend,

event, or action would get its

own wheel.

Step 3 – Gather Appropriate

Participants

The process can be executed by asingle individual, Futures Wheels arebest created by a group so thatmultiple perspectives and multipleareas of expertise arerepresented. Once you know whatthe exact event or trend is that youare going to investigate, the next stepis to gather the appropriateparticipants to help with the creationof the Futures Wheel.

Step 4 – Identify Direct

ConsequencesThe next step in the process is to

brainstorm / identify only the DIRECT (or

1st-order) consequences of the event or

trend being evaluated. Do not try to

identify secondary (or 2nd-order)

consequences of direct consequences at

this time, but rather keep the group

focused on thinking laterally about the

issue, rather than linearly.

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Step 5 – Identify Second-Order

Consequences

Once you identified all of the

direct consequences, the next

step is start with a single direct

consequence and identify any its

direct consequences. These are

dependent consequences and are

essentially the consequences of

the consequence.

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Step 6 – Identify Third-Order

(and further) Impacts

The next step is to continue the

process, but this time working with a

single 2nd-order consequence and

identifying any of its direct

consequences.

Advantages

The Futures Wheel technique …“Adds

rigor by helping people think through

how an issue may unfold or the

consequences of an event or strategy in

a thorough fashion. Avoids one-

dimensional, linear thinking. Helps move

the mind from linear, hierarchical and

simplistic thinking to more network-

oriented, organic and complex

thinking. Helps identify relationships and

unintended consequences.”

Disadvantages

A completed Futures Wheel essentially serves as a Rorschach test of the authoring group or the organization that were involved in its creation because the members of the group are most likely to identify impacts highlighting areas of concern. This bias is a result of the process and is best mitigated by having participants with a wide-range of concerns, responsibilities, and expertise.

“While the Futures Wheel method is

easily grasped by participants, an

undisciplined approach can result in

what is referred to as “intellectual

spaghetti” i.e. the generation of a

myriad of interactions that become so

complex that they tend to complicate

and confuse the implications of the

trend.

This method is limited to the

knowledge of the participants and

while information overload can occur,

confining analysis to the primary,

secondary and tertiary rings, allows for

the visualization of a vast amount of

qualitative information that has both

depth and contextual richness.”