Concluding Regional Workshop on Methodologies Concluding Regional Workshop on Methodologies to Assess Socio-Economic Impacts of Natural to Assess Socio-Economic Impacts of Natural

Disasters, 19-21 October, 2005Disasters, 19-21 October, 2005

Methodology for Rapid Assessment of Socio-Methodology for Rapid Assessment of Socio-Economic Impacts of DroughtEconomic Impacts of Drought

Pakistan Council of Research in Water ResourcesPakistan Council of Research in Water Resources

Dr. Muhammad Akram KahlownDr. Muhammad Akram KahlownChairmanChairman

Resource Base (Water)Resource Base (Water)

Surface Water: 175 Bm3

Total Available Storage: 20 Bm3

Sedimentation in Storage: 0.2 Bm3

Canal Diversions: 130 Bm3

Groundwater Availability: 82 Bm3

Groundwater Withdrawal: 62 Bm3

Irrigated Area: 18 Mha

Available for Additional Cultivation: 12 Mha

Year 2001Year 2001 Year 2004Year 2004 Year 2011Year 2011

Water Availability at Farm gate:Water Availability at Farm gate: Surface waterSurface water GroundwaterGroundwater TotalTotal

1041046262166166

1051056262167167

1191196262

181*181*

Water Requirement:Water Requirement:IrrigationIrrigationOther UsesOther UsesTotalTotal

166166 77173173

177**177**88

185185

209**209**1111220220

Shortfall Shortfall 5%5% 11%11% 21%21%

In 2025 Shortfall up to 50% (PWP, 2000)

* Watercourse improvement (7.39 Bm* Watercourse improvement (7.39 Bm33), Raising Mangla (3.82 Bm), Raising Mangla (3.82 Bm33), ), Kurram Tangi Dam (1.48 BmKurram Tangi Dam (1.48 Bm33), Small Dams (0.37 Bm), Small Dams (0.37 Bm33), Gomal ), Gomal Zam (1.4 BmZam (1.4 Bm33), Mirani (0.37 Bm), Mirani (0.37 Bm33))

** Population Growth 2.6 to 1.9, increased food requirements and ** Population Growth 2.6 to 1.9, increased food requirements and land reclamationland reclamation

(Bm3)

Water Availability and DemandsWater Availability and Demands

Drought Hit Areas in PakistanDrought Hit Areas in Pakistan

CharacteristicCharacteristic BalochistanBalochistan SindhSindhGeographical Area Geographical Area (Mha)(Mha)

34.7234.72 14.0914.09

Cultivated Area Cultivated Area (Mha)(Mha)

1.991.99 5.715.71

Population Population (million)(million)

6.576.57 30.0030.00

Annual Rainfall Annual Rainfall (mm)(mm)

50-25050-250 200-250200-250

AgricultureAgriculture RainfedRainfed IrrigatedIrrigated

Province Cities Period Frequency

Punjab

Lahore 1953-2000 13

Jhelum 1950-2000 7

Rawalpindi 1959-2000 7

Murree 1960-2000 4

NWFPPeshawar 1950-2000 10

Balakot 1961-2000 6

Sindh

Nawabshah 1954-2000 20

Jacobabad 1931-2000 32

Badin 1931-2000 27

Chhor 1931-2000 18

Balochistan

Sibbi 1931-2000 20

Nokundi 1957-2000 17

Dalbadin 1931-2000 23

Panjgur 1931-2000 25

Ormara 1961-2000 12

Kalat 1931-2000 15

Droughts in PakistanDroughts in Pakistan

Livestock herdsLivestock herds

Cultivation of OrchardsCultivation of Orchards

Growing of Agricultural CropsGrowing of Agricultural Crops

Major Socio-Economic Activities in Major Socio-Economic Activities in

Drought Hit AreasDrought Hit Areas

Animal Animal SpeciesSpecies

Number of Heads (million)Number of Heads (million) Reduction (%)Reduction (%)

1996 Census1996 Census 2002 Census2002 Census

CattleCattle 1.3411.341 0.9650.965 2828

SheepSheep 10.84110.841 5.2465.246 5252

GoatGoat 9.3709.370 6.0656.065 3535

BuffalosBuffalos 0.1610.161 0.0970.097 4040

CamelCamel 0.3390.339 0.1520.152 5555

HorsesHorses 0.0430.043 0.0240.024 4444

MulesMules 0.0030.003 0.0020.002 3434

DonkeyDonkey 0.3830.383 0.2960.296 2323

TotalTotal 22.48122.481 12.84712.847 4343

Livestock Production in BalochistanLivestock Production in Balochistan

Cropped Area Reduction in Cropped Area Reduction in

BalochistanBalochistanYearYear Area Reduction (%)Area Reduction (%)

WheatWheat BarleyBarley SorghumSorghum

1998-991998-99 2727 3838 6363

1999-001999-00 2323 6464 7171

2000-012000-01 2525 5656 7070

2001-022001-02 2323 5555 7272

2002-032002-03 2121 5555 6666

2003-042003-04 2121 5656 6262

Base Year: 1995-96

Crops Production Reduction in BalochistanCrops Production Reduction in Balochistan

YearYear Production Reduction (%)Production Reduction (%)

WheatWheat BarleyBarley SorghumSorghum

1998-991998-99 2020 3838 5757

1999-001999-00 4343 7171 6666

2000-012000-01 3434 6262 6868

2001-022001-02 3131 6161 7070

2002-032002-03 3030 6262 6565

2003-042003-04 2929 6262 6161

Base Year: 1995-96

Orchards Yield Reduction in BalochistanOrchards Yield Reduction in Balochistan

YearYear Yield Reduction (%)Yield Reduction (%)

AppleApple ApricotApricot AlmondAlmond

1998-991998-99 44 55 22

1999-001999-00 5454 4646 3939

2000-012000-01 5353 4545 3838

2001-022001-02 5454 4646 5353

2002-032002-03 6262 4848 5050

2003-042003-04 8484 5959 5454

Base Year: 1995-96

Impact on Cropped Area in SindhImpact on Cropped Area in Sindh

YearYear Impact (%)Impact (%)

WheatWheat SugarcanSugarcanee

RiceRice

1998-991998-99 +2+2 +6+6 +10+10

1999-001999-00 +3+3 -9-9 +7+7

2000-012000-01 -27-27 -6-6 -16-16

2001-022001-02 -21-21 -5-5 -28-28

2002-032002-03 -22-22 -2-2 -24-24

2003-042003-04 -21-21 -2-2 -14-14

Base Year: 1995-96

Impact on Crops Yield in SindhImpact on Crops Yield in Sindh

YearYear Impact (%)Impact (%)

WheatWheat SugarcanSugarcanee

RiceRice

1998-991998-99 +12+12 +17+17 +4+4

1999-001999-00 +24+24 +15+15 +16+16

2000-012000-01 +30+30 -7-7 +18+18

2001-022001-02 +13+13 -12-12 -5-5

2002-032002-03 +15+15 -1-1 +1+1

2003-042003-04 +17+17 -4-4 -2-2

Base Year: 1995-96

Agricultural production ready to be harvestedAgricultural production ready to be harvested CropsCrops OrchardsOrchards VegetablesVegetables

Losses in animal stockLosses in animal stock LivestockLivestock PoultryPoultry

Losses to rangelandsLosses to rangelands Reduced yields in future cropsReduced yields in future crops Not planting of future cropsNot planting of future crops Losses to water sourcesLosses to water sources Loss of employment in various sectors Loss of employment in various sectors

(agriculture, industrial and tourism)(agriculture, industrial and tourism)

Economic Sector Drought Damages Economic Sector Drought Damages

Food cost and temporary shelter for Food cost and temporary shelter for affectees during migrationaffectees during migration

Destruction and repair costs of housing Destruction and repair costs of housing appliancesappliances

Losses of “Backyard economy” assets:Losses of “Backyard economy” assets: Micro and small enterprises (cottage industry)Micro and small enterprises (cottage industry) Small species cattleSmall species cattle Vegetable gardensVegetable gardens Informally raised cropsInformally raised crops

Repair of damaged housing, schooling and Repair of damaged housing, schooling and health infrastructurehealth infrastructure

Rehabilitation costs of communication and Rehabilitation costs of communication and water supply systemswater supply systems

Social Sector Drought Damages Social Sector Drought Damages

Identify organizations and personnel Identify organizations and personnel active in the affected areaactive in the affected area

Identify the priority zones throughIdentify the priority zones through Preliminary reportsPreliminary reports Meteorological dataMeteorological data Remote sensing or aerial photographyRemote sensing or aerial photography Interviews of persons working in the areasInterviews of persons working in the areas

Determine the areas to be assessedDetermine the areas to be assessed

Procedure for Rapid Impact Procedure for Rapid Impact

Assessment of DroughtAssessment of Drought

Continued …………..

Conduct the drought assessment Conduct the drought assessment through:through: An over flight of the project areaAn over flight of the project area Ground surveys to collect data on extent Ground surveys to collect data on extent

of drought and pattern of damagesof drought and pattern of damages Series of interviews of the affectees, Series of interviews of the affectees,

relief personnel, public officials, R&D relief personnel, public officials, R&D organizations, sellers of farm organizations, sellers of farm implements, fertilizers and seeds, etc.implements, fertilizers and seeds, etc.

Procedure for Rapid Impact Procedure for Rapid Impact

Assessment of DroughtAssessment of Drought

Continued …………..

Conduct random sampling of health and Conduct random sampling of health and nutritional status including:nutritional status including: MortalityMortality MorbidityMorbidity Pregnant and lactating womenPregnant and lactating women Children under fiveChildren under five Small farmersSmall farmers Families of herdsmenFamilies of herdsmen Low income village dwellersLow income village dwellers

Conduct post-field assessment interviewsConduct post-field assessment interviews

Procedure for Rapid Impact Procedure for Rapid Impact

Assessment of DroughtAssessment of Drought

Development of national drought Development of national drought policy policy

Establishment of national climate Establishment of national climate monitoring systemmonitoring system

Post drought audits of response Post drought audits of response effortsefforts

Establishment of regional drought Establishment of regional drought forumsforums

Development of national drought Development of national drought mitigation plansmitigation plans

Strategies to Reduce Drought Risk Strategies to Reduce Drought Risk

Monitoring activitiesMonitoring activities

Impact assessment effortsImpact assessment efforts

Mitigation measuresMitigation measures

R&D endeavors R&D endeavors

Drought Management in Pakistan Drought Management in Pakistan

Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)

Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA)Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA)

Provincial Irrigation and Drainage Authorities Provincial Irrigation and Drainage Authorities (PIDAs)(PIDAs)

District governmentsDistrict governments

Agencies Involved in Drought Agencies Involved in Drought

Monitoring Monitoring

Establishment of a drought and environmental monitoring Establishment of a drought and environmental monitoring center (DEMC): Four provincial meteorological centers center (DEMC): Four provincial meteorological centers

Exploration of drought characteristics like intensity, magnitude Exploration of drought characteristics like intensity, magnitude and extent (spatial and temporal)and extent (spatial and temporal)

Issuance of drought forecasts and warnings to various user Issuance of drought forecasts and warnings to various user agenciesagencies

Although forecasting accuracy is satisfactory, warning system Although forecasting accuracy is satisfactory, warning system is weak and underdevelopedis weak and underdeveloped

The information does not reach the people in rural areas who The information does not reach the people in rural areas who are likely to be affected by droughtare likely to be affected by drought

Role of PMD in Drought Monitoring Role of PMD in Drought Monitoring

Collection & analyses of data on the following parameters Collection & analyses of data on the following parameters to determine the impacts of climatic changes:to determine the impacts of climatic changes:

• Rivers flowsRivers flows

• Storage reservoirs levelsStorage reservoirs levels

• Groundwater levelsGroundwater levels

Dissemination of information to concerned Dissemination of information to concerned federal/provincial agenciesfederal/provincial agencies

Role of WAPDA in Drought Monitoring Role of WAPDA in Drought Monitoring

Monitoring of canal diversions and distributing water Monitoring of canal diversions and distributing water within the canal networkwithin the canal network

Management of canal supplies through the following Management of canal supplies through the following interventions:interventions:

• Prioritize the canal water allocations on groundwater quality Prioritize the canal water allocations on groundwater quality basisbasis

• Reallocate water supplies during critical crop stagesReallocate water supplies during critical crop stages

• Operate canals on revised rotationsOperate canals on revised rotations

Role of PIDAs in Drought Monitoring Role of PIDAs in Drought Monitoring

Coordination of information with provincial Coordination of information with provincial administration on unusual changes in water administration on unusual changes in water availability provided by the following line availability provided by the following line departments:departments: AgricultureAgriculture LivestockLivestock Public healthPublic health RevenueRevenue Etc.Etc.

Role of District Govts. In Drought Role of District Govts. In Drought

Monitoring Monitoring

No single institution is responsible for No single institution is responsible for drought monitoring in the countrydrought monitoring in the country

Limitation in Drought Monitoring Limitation in Drought Monitoring

Promulgation of National Calamity Act, 1958Promulgation of National Calamity Act, 1958 Establishment of Federal Level InstitutionsEstablishment of Federal Level Institutions

Emergency Relief CellEmergency Relief Cell Federal Drought Emergency Relief and Federal Drought Emergency Relief and

Assistance (DERA) UnitAssistance (DERA) Unit Establishment of Provincial Level Establishment of Provincial Level

InstitutionsInstitutions Relief Commission OfficeRelief Commission Office Drought Crisis Control CentreDrought Crisis Control Centre Drought Management CommitteesDrought Management Committees DERA UnitDERA Unit

Drought Mitigation Measures in PakistanDrought Mitigation Measures in Pakistan

Lack of reliable and authentic drought dataLack of reliable and authentic drought data

Absence of drought mitigation infrastructure and Absence of drought mitigation infrastructure and

strategystrategy

Lack of National Drought PolicyLack of National Drought Policy

Complexity of drought assessment in various Complexity of drought assessment in various

sectorssectors

Non-existence of drought monitoring and Non-existence of drought monitoring and

assessment criteriaassessment criteria

Hindrances in Drought Impact AssessmentHindrances in Drought Impact Assessment

Formulation of a National Drought Formulation of a National Drought Policy/PlanPolicy/Plan

Implementation of the National Drought Implementation of the National Drought PolicyPolicy

Initiation of R&D Program for drought Initiation of R&D Program for drought management management

Adoption of criteria for drought impact Adoption of criteria for drought impact assessment: assessment:

vulnerability indicators vulnerability indicators

economic thresholdeconomic threshold

income of peopleincome of people

RecommendationsRecommendations

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