component 3a module

3 days Training

Module on

Vulnerability and

Impact

Assessment Tools

Developed by:

JESUSITA O. COLADILLA,

UPLBFI

For MDGF 1656

[A comprehensive training module along with guideline for participants aiming to enhance capacity of the agricultural stakeholders to understand climate change better and provide available vulnerability and impact assessment frameworks, tools and techniques for assessing vulnerable people, crops, animal and areas to climate variability]

2010

J.O. COLADILLA

UPLBFI

10/10/2010

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools 2010

Component 3A – Training of Trainors on Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact

Assessment Tools on Agriculture for Local Stakeholders in Benguet and Ifugao

I. Introduction

The Philippines has always been frequented by climate related hazards like

tropical cyclones and other extreme events like droughts and floods that hampered the

health of human population; caused deaths, damaged life and properties and

aggravated the difficulties among the poor people of the country. These natural hazards

can be attributed to the changing climate, popularly known as “climate change”.

According to Cruz, et al (2010), climate change affects the different sectors of the

community and all ecosystems from the forest down to the coastal areas which

encompasses the forest, agro-forest, agricultural, industrial, residential, commercial and

coastal ecosystems.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in their fourth

assessment report in 2007 that archipelagic countries and small islands are the most

vulnerable to climate change. The Philippines already experiences the brunt of climate

change as per record of increasing frequency of disasters like drought, typhoons,

massive landslides, and flooding that are observed in the last ten years. Agricultural,

coastal and urban sectors are among the most affected; urban sector where poorest of

the poor are mostly located and are dependent on coastal and agriculture for their food

supply and the agricultural sector which is heavily dependent on climate for their

production.

In the same report, IPCC projected that impacts of climate change will intensify in

the years to come based from their global climate simulation under different economic

scenarios. Projection shows that the Philippines will be greatly affected in all scenarios.

Vulnerability and impact assessment, therefore, is needed for better planning of

adaptation strategies that will address specific sector, places and group of people.

As the most affected sector, agriculture needs to be equipped with tools and

methods for better assessment of its vulnerability. Using local knowledge and available

methodologies for vulnerability and impact assessment, this training of trainors was

therefore conducted to capacitate the agricultural stakeholders in the province of

Benguet in conducting vulnerability and impact assessment using available tools and

methods suitable to the province.

Specifically, the training aim to: 1. Update the stakeholders of the current development on climate change;

2. Update the stakeholders on the available climatic and biophysical information;

3. Provide the stakeholders with vulnerability and impact assessment tools available;

4. Train the stakeholders in using the assessment tools appropriate to the area; and

5. Enable the participants to conduct their own vulnerability and impact assessment.

Strengthening the Philippines Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change (SPICACC)


Training of Trainors on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools for

Agriculture Sector

COURSE MODULE OVERVIEW

TIME SUBJECT CONTENT/PURPOSE

Day One: Understanding Climate Change Science and its Impacts, Climate Change Scenario, Responses to Climate Change, Basic Terminology and Vulnerability Assessment

Registration

Morning-1 1 hr and 30 mins

Welcome, Opening and Introductions

Opening Program Welcome Ceremony by Host Institution Chapter 01 of the Module Course introduction, objective of the training course, contents of the training course, methods to be applied, training materials to be used, facilitators and their role during the training, review of the logistical matters etc. Self Introduction by all participants Sharing their expectations

Question and Answer

Approach: Participatory to create warm atmosphere, Ice-breaking session One presentation will be made introducing the training programme, contents and approaches

Morning-2 30 mins

Basic Climate Change Science: Global Warming, Greenhouse Gases and Consequences

Chapter 02 of the Module What is weather and climate, what is climate change, what is global warming, source of greenhouse gases, consequences of GHG concentration in the atmosphere (mainly temperature change) Objectives: At the end of this Chapter, participants should be able to:

1. Understand the basic science of climate change.

2. Assess their level of awareness with regards to the issues related to climate change

Topical Outline: I. Introduction II. What is climate change and its causes? III. Indicators of climate change

Strengthening the Philippines Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change (SPICACC)



IV. Definition of terms V. Observed evidences VI. Summary: Concluding Remarks and

Take Home Messages Approach: One Powerpoint Presentation, questions and answers, brief exercise

Tea Break and Photo Opt

Morning – 3 1hr

Climate Change Vulnerability Basic Concepts

Chapter 03 of the Module Key terminologies of climate change: Impacts, vulnerability, adaptation, mitigation, risk, hazards, shock, variability, trend, exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity etc. Objectives: At the end of the chapter, the participants should be able to:

1. Articulate concepts of climate change vulnerability in the context of agriculture

2. Differentiate some methods and tools used for assessing vulnerabilities of local communities to climate change

3. Conduct a simple vulnerability assessment using a participatory method

Topical Outline:

I. Introduction II. Concepts of Vulnerability III. Methods and Tools for Assessing the

Community Vulnerability to Climate Change

IV. Some Examples of Conducting Community Vulnerability Assessment

V. Concluding Remarks and Take Home Messages

Approach: One Powerpoint Presentation, questions and answers

Morning – 3 1hr

Philippine Climate Change Scenarios and its Impacts to Agriculture

Chapter 04 of the Module This session will introduce the trainees with the different climate change scenarios and their consequences such as: 1. Changes in temperature (changes in land Surface

Temperature, changes in Sea Surface Temperature)

2. Variation in Rainfall and 3. Ice melting and Sea level Rise Objectives: The objectives of this chapter are;



1. To familiarize the participants with the basic

concepts of Climate Change scenarios both in the international and national settings; and

2. To give the participants the implications of the Philippine climate change scenarios

Topical Outline: I. Definition of Terms II. Observed Changes in the Philippine‟s Climate

A. Increased in Temperature B. Observed Rainfall Trends C. Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Events D. Sea Level Rise

III. Projected Climate Changes in the Philippines

A. Projected Increase in Temperature B. Rainfall trends C. Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Events D. Sea Level Rise

IV. Implications to Agriculture V. Summary and Concluding Remarks

Approach: One Powerpoint Presentation based on IPCC Assessment Report, One Case Study Presentation, questions and answers

Lunch Break

Afternoon -1 1 hr

Climate Change Impacts in Cordillera Region

Chapter 05 of the Module This will cover impacts of climate change In Cordillera region. Topical Outline:

I. Introduction II. Observed Impacts of Climate Change in

CAR III. Current Adaptations that are practiced in

the area IV. Summary and Conclusion

Approach: One Powerpoint Presentation on impacts to agriculture in Cordillera region based from observed impacts in the Philippines and observed impacts in CAR region, questions and answers

Afternoon 2 1hr

FGD, KII and Formal Field Survey Outputs on CC Impacts in Benguet

Chapter 06 of the Module This will cover the results of FGD, KII and FFS conducted in Ifugao on Vulnerability assessment tools but will focus on identified impacts of CC in Ifugao in general. This will serve as venue for validation of output with the community Topical Outline:



I. Introduction

II. Methodologies

A. Focus Group Discussion

B. Key Informant Interview

C. Formal Field Survey

III. Outputs of Impact Assessment in Ifugao

IV. Take Home Messages

Approach: One PowerPoint presentation on the results of FGD and KII on climate change impacts assessment in Ifugao. Questions and answers

Tea Break

Afternoon – 3 1 hr and 30 mins

Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Framework

Chapter 07 of the Module This session will cover the available and the proposed V&A framework for the Cordillera Region.

Systematic Steps for Conducting CC V&A Assessment of Agriculture using Watershed Approach I. Identification of Scope and Purpose of

Assessment II. Description of People, Areas and Sectors that

will be affected III. Assessment of Exposure to Climate Change IV. Determination of Areas Inherently Sensitive to

Climate Change V. Assessment and Rating of Adaptive Capacity VI. Vulnerability Rating VII. Impact Assessment VIII. Identification and Assessment of Adaptation for

Future Climate Changes Approach: Powerpoint presentation of the step by step process for conducting Vulnerability and impact assessment will be done. Question and Answer as well as exercise

Day 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment, Methods and Tools

Morning – 1 1hr

V&A Assessment Approaches, Framework, Tools and Methods: An Overview

Chapter 08 of the Module This session will present the different V and A approaches, framework, tools and methods to conduct a V and A. Objectives: At the end of this chapter, the participants should be able to:

1. Familiarize and understand the different methods, tools and approaches in assessing the vulnerability of agriculture sector to climate change



2. Familiarize with some of the examples of Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment using the methods, tools and approaches presented

3. Conduct a simple exercise using the V&A Assessment methods, tools and approaches presented

A. Watershed Approach for Assessing Climate

Change Vulnerability of Agriculture Sector Topical Outline:

I. Introduction II. Definition of Terms III. Watershed Approach for Assessing

Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change

Approach: Powerpoint presentation based on FGD and KII results.

Morning 2 1 hr

Proposed Community-Based Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Assessment Tool for the Agriculture Sector of Ifugao and Benguet

Chapter 09 of this module This session will cover different top-down and bottom up methods and approaches. Indigenous knowledge and local tools for assessment will also be presented for validation Topical Outline:

I. Introduction II. Methodology III. Review of Existing Vulnerability Tools with

main focus on their Feasibility on Upland Agriculture in Ifugao and Benguet Provinces

IV. The Proposed Community Based CC V&A Assessment Tool for Agriculture Sector of Ifugao and Benguet Provinces

V. Steps for the Conduct of Assessment 1. Organizing the Vulnerability and

Capacity Assessment Team 2. Study of the Area through Secondary

Information 3. Planning and Preparation for the Field

work 4. Site Reconnaissance 5. Description of Climate-related Hazards

in the Community 6. Describe vulnerabilities and capacities

of the community 7. Conduct Hazard Mapping 8. Identify and assess current adaptation

measures



Approach: One Powerpoint Presentation based on IPCC Assessment Report, One bottom-up methodological Presentation and one top-down approach utilized in the country.

Tea Break

Morning -3 1 hr 30 min

GIS Mapping as a Tool for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment of Agriculture

Chapter 10 of the module In this session, the participants will be presented with a mapping tool for assessing vulnerability of the agricultural sector of the province Objectives: At the end of this lesson, the participants should be able to:

1. Appreciate and understand the concepts and principles of GIS as tool for vulnerability and adaptation assessment in agriculture.

2. Understand the use of Global Positioning System (GPS), Remote Sensing (RS) and systems modeling as GIS allied in mapping.

3. Understand the data requirements for assessing the vulnerability of agriculture sector

4. Perform a simple GIS overlay procedure to generate insights on vulnerable population and resources

Topical Outline: I. Introduction to GIS as a technology and as a

science II. GIS Allied Technologies

A. Global Positioning System B. Remote Sensing C. Cartographic and Dynamic Systems

Modeling III. GIS and its application to agriculture IV. Data, information and databases for vulnerability

assessment V. Conducting a GIS Mapping: Some Examples VI. Summary and Conclusion

Approach: Powerpoint presentation, question and answer and group exercise

Lunch Break

Afternoon 1 1 hr.

Tools for Socio-Economic and Bio-physical Characterization

Chapter 11 of this module This session will present the different tools for socio-economic and bio-physical characterization. Objectives: The chapter aims to: 1. Provide and familiarize participants with the tools

and methods for the socio-economic and biophysical characterization useful for the conduct of V&A assessment in their area



2. Conduct a simple exercise on characterization of their areas

Topical Outline:

I. Introduction II. Focus Group Discussion (FGD) III. Key Informant Interview IV. Historical Time Frame V. Conducting a Socio-economic and biophysical

characterization: Some Examples VI. Summary and Conclusion

Approach: PowerPoint presentation, question and answer and group exercises

Afternoon 2 1 hr

Updated socio-economic and biophysical characteristics of Benguet province

Chapter 12 of this module This portion will present the socio-economic and bio-physical characteristic of the province to enable the participants to understand their environment and to have enough information for assessment and planning

Afternoon 2 3 hrs

Exercises on timeline, historical, spot mapping and other approaches

This session will use different exercises for analyzing community level vulnerabilities, and their adaptation needs to deal with adverse impacts of present and future climate. Exercises will allow participants to think from their own context (country, region, sector, vulnerable groups) Approach: Breakout groups, facilitated by exercise using examples and defined format, questions and answers

Day 3- Group exercises

Hands-on Exercise Output Presentations Approach: Presentation from the Breakout groups, questions and answers Concluding Session This session will capture feedback and finally conclude the training session. Approach: Participatory, Feedback form will be used for future improvement, concluding remark from the host institution.


CHAPTER 1: Training Overview

I. Training Overview

This training program for LGUs, MAOs and agricultural technicians of the Cordillera

Region is part of the Outcome 3.1 of the project entitled “Strengthening the

Philippines Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change (SPICACC)”. This specific training

is under the project activity “Capacity building on vulnerability and impact

assessment tool and monitoring and evaluation”. It was commissioned by the

Department of Agriculture (DA) to the UPLB Foundation Incorporated (UPLBFI).

This one-week training was divided into two parts: a) Trainor‟s training on

vulnerability and impact assessment tools on agriculture and b) training of trainors on

monitoring and evaluation.

II. Objective of the Training

This 3-day Training on Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Tools for Ifugao and

Benguet is designed to capacitate the local stakeholders (LGUs, farmers and MAO)

in conducting vulnerability and impact assessment using available tools and methods

suitable to the province of Benguet and Ifugao.

Specifically, the training aims to:

• Update the stakeholders on climate change issues;

• Update the stakeholders on the available climatic and biophysical information;

• Provide the stakeholders with vulnerability and impact assessment tools

available;

• Train the stakeholders in using the assessment tools appropriate to the area; and

• Enable the participants to conduct their own vulnerability and impact

assessment.

III. PROGRAM OF ACTIVITIES

The training topics was divided into five parts: a) discussion on basic climate

change science, b) discussion on impacts of climate change in agriculture at the

global, national and regional level, c) vulnerability to climate change, d) available

tools and methods for vulnerability and impact assessment and e) simple step by

step methods in conducting vulnerability and impact assessment.

The training activities will be done interactively, participants can ask question during

the lecture and vice versa. Exercises will also be provided for better appreciation of

the lectures. Attached below is the program of activities for reference of participants.


Training of Trainors on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

DATE/TIME TOPIC RESOURCE

PERSON

Day 1 – Understanding Climate Change Science, Climate Change Scenario, Impacts Of Climate Change, Vulnerability And Impact Assessment Framework

8:00 – 9:00 OPENING PROGRAM

Registration Secretariat

Opening Ceremonies National Anthem Invocation Welcome/Opening remarks Introduction of participants Training overview, expected outputs and evaluation methods

c/o Host Institution Dr. J.O. Coladilla

9:00-10:00 Climate Change Science Dr. J.O. Coladilla

10:00-10:30 COFFEE BREAK AND PHOTO OPT

10:30-11:00 11:00-12:00

Climate Change Vulnerability Basic Concepts Philippine Climate Change Scenarios and its Impacts to Agriculture

Dr. J.O. Coladilla Dr. J.O. Coladilla

12:00 - 1:00 LUNCH BREAK

1:00 - 2:00 Climate Change Impacts in Cordillera Region SPICACC-Cordillera

2:00 – 3:00 FGD, KII and Formal Field Survey Outputs on CC Impacts in Ifugao/Benguet

SPICACC-Cordillera

3:00 – 3:15 COFFEE BREAK

3:15 – 5:00 Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Framework Dr. J.O. Coladilla

Day 2 – Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Methods/Tools

8:00-9:00 V&A Assessment Approaches, Framework, Tools and Methods: An Overview

Dr. J.N. Garcia

9:00-10:00 Proposed community-based vulnerability and impact assessment tools

Drs. A.Wagan/J.N. Garcia

10:00 – 10:15 COFFEE BREAK

10:15 – 12:00 Updated Socio-economic and Bio-physical Characteristics of Ifugao/Benguet

SPICACC-Cordillera

12:00 – 1:00 LUNCH BREAK

1:00 - 3:00 GIS Mapping as a Tool for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment to Impacts of Climate Change

Prof. D. K. Vergara

3:00 -3:15 COFFEE BREAK

3:15 – 5:00 Exercises on timeline, historical, spot mapping and other tools and approaches

Participants

Day 3 - Conduct of Vulnerability and Impact Assessment

8:00-12:00 Guided Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Exercise and Output Presentation


IV. EXPECTED OUTPUT

After the training, participants are expected to a) come-up a list of identified

agricultural commodities, areas and group of people that are affected by climate

change in the last 10 years, b) identify the vulnerable groups, sectors, places that are

considered vulnerable to climate change based on its bio-physical characteristics, c)

present a spot map of vulnerable areas, group of people in their community and d)

identify from the list of tools and methods which are acceptable and will be useful to

their province.

V. TRAINING LOGISTICS

Food and accommodation as well as transportation expenses of the participants will

be provided by the project. Participants will be accommodated in the place provided

by the host institution. Food will be served in the training venue. Transportation

expenses will be reimbursed by the secretariat after the last session.


CHAPTER 2. Basic Climate

Change Science

I. Topic Overview

This chapter basically aims to introduce the basic climate change science to the

participants, discuss the contributing factors to the observed climate change and

serves as venue to discuss the issues further, as well as assess the level of

knowledge of the participants on the basics of climate change. This will be done by

discussing the basic meteorology and climatology concepts, the observed climatic

trends, and the human contribution to the observed climatic changes.

At the end of the lecture, participants are expected to a) understand the basic

science of climate change, b) be able to assess their contribution to the changing

climatic condition, and c) be aware of the needs to act to minimize impacts of CC to

them.

Powerpoint presentation of the topic following the outline below will be done to meet

the objective indicated above:

Topical Outline:

VII. Introduction

VIII. What is climate change and its causes?

IX. Indicators of climate change

X. Definition of terms

XI. Observed evidences

XII. Summary

II. What is Climate Change and it’s Causes?

Climate change or the variation in Earth‟s global climate is one of the serious

problems that the human being confronts nowadays. Climate change refers to the

gradual change in the global temperature caused by the accumulation of greenhouse

gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere (IPCC, 2007). Meanwhile, United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) defines climate change as a

change attributed directly or indirectly to human activities that alter the composition

of the atmosphere.

Climate change is a natural phenomenon caused by external forces and human

activities that modify ecological system. Human activities contributed in the increase


of greenhouse gasses concentration in the atmosphere. Greenhouse gasses include

carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxides, sulfur oxides, lead, carbon monoxide,

chlorofluorocarbons and dioxin. These are naturally occurring gasses in the

atmosphere serving as thin layer that absorb thermal radiation emitted and reflected

by the earth‟s surface. Greenhouse gases act much like a glass which allows the

entry of incoming solar radiations but absorb the infrared heat of the long wave

radiations and reflect these back to the earth, causing an increase in air temperature

(Figure 1). Without these gases, heat would escape back into space and Earth‟s

average temperature would be about 16 ºC colder. Because of how they warm our

world, these gases are referred to as greenhouse gases. Over time, however, these

are enhanced and accumulate as human activities such as deforestation,

combustion of fossil fuels, agriculture development, and rapid population growth, in

line with industrial revolution increases. Estimated percentage contribution of

greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is shown in Table 1 below. It can be noted that

carbon dioxide has the highest percent contribution in greenhouse gases followed by

methane.

Source:

Figure 1. Illustration of greenhouse effect.

Table 1. Greenhouse gases contribution in the atmosphere.

Greenhouse Gases Percent Contribution

Carbon Dioxide (CO2 ) 64

Methane (CH4) 19

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) 10

Nitrous Oxide (N2 O) 5.7

Others 1.3

Total 100

Source:

The UNFCC claimed that the currently observed climate change is anthropogenic.

This means that human activities highly contributed in the increase of greenhouse


gases in the atmosphere through modification of the natural ecological systems in

the name of development. Among the human activities that contributed in the

releases of GHG are land use change, use of heat and electricity, agriculture and

transportation. Figure 2 below shows the percentage contribution of human activities

to in GHGs.

Figure 2. Percentage contribution of human activities to the increasing GHGs.

Source:

III. Indicators of Climate Change

In the past several decades, various scientists observed increase in global mean

surface temperature along with rise in global sea level and decrease in Northern

Hemisphere snow cover (Figure 3). In 2007 assessment, IPCC reported that from

the 1981 to 2000 instrumental record of temperature, the warmest decade was the

1990s with the year 1998 as the warmest year. They have also reported that there

was an increase of about 0.6°C in the global average surface temperature over the

20th century. During the same period, the global average sea level had rose by 0.1

to 0.2 meters; and global rainfall by 0.2% to 0.3% per decade over the tropical (10°N

to 10°S) land areas.

IPCC (2004) reported that increase in global temperature over long periods of time

lead to a number of climatic changes such as arctic sea ice melt which could lead to

sea level rise, sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) resulting to hydrologic cycle

acceleration which could lead to increased rainfall intensity and flooding or to

droughts and water shortages.


Figure 3. Observed trends in global temperature, sea level and snow cover. Note: Observed changes in (a) global average surface temperature; (b) global average sea level from tide gauge

(blue) and satellite (red) data and (c) Northern Hemisphere snow cover for March-April. All differences are relative to corresponding averages for the period 1961-1990. Smoothed curves represent decadal averaged values while circles show yearly values. The shaded areas are the uncertainty intervals estimated from a comprehensive analysis of known uncertainties (a and b) and from the time series (c). Source: IPCC (2007)

IV. Definition of Terms

For better discussion and understanding of climate change concepts, terminologies commonly used in the discussions are presented below.

Basic climatology and meteorological concepts:

Climate describes the total of all weather occurring over a period of years in a given

place. e.g. in Los Baños, it is generally wet during the months of June to

August, relatively dry during the months of September to January and dry

during the months of February to May.

Climate variability refers to long term seasonal variability. e.g. extended dry season

or extended wet season

Weather refers to what is happening in a given place at a given time. It varies from

places to places and from minute to minute. e.g. typhoon in Bicol now but

not in Mindanao.


Weather variability refers to short term variability: daily or hourly variability. e.g.

sunny morning followed by heavy rain in the afternoon.

Terms related to climate variability:

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) refers to the coherent and year-to-year

variations in sea- surface temperatures, convective rainfall, surface air

pressure, and atmospheric circulation across the equatorial Pacific

Ocean.

El Niño refers to the abnormal warming of sea-surface temperatures along the west

coast of tropical South America

La Niña refers to the abnormal cooling in the east central equatorial pacific

Southern Oscillation refers to the see-saw pattern of reversing surface air pressure

between the eastern and western tropical pacific

V. Observed evidences

Present slides of observed El Nino, La Nina, typhoon, flooding, landslides events:

international, national and local events,

Short discussion/open forum on observed evidences in their locality.

VI. Summary and take home message

Climate change is real, there are observed evidences of weather and climate

variability. We are part of the problem, and we will also be affected and now being

affected but who are most affected? And how they can be helped?


CHAPTER 3. Climate Change

Vulnerability Basic

Concepts I. Introduction

This part will discuss the key terminologies of climate change: CC Impacts, vulnerability,

adaptation, mitigation, risk, hazards, shock, variability, trend, exposure, sensitivity, and

adaptive capacity.

The objective of this Chapter is to familiarize the participants to the basic concepts related to

vulnerability and impact assessment that at the end of the presentation the participants

should be able to:

1. Articulate concepts of climate change vulnerability in the context of agriculture

2. Differentiate some methods and tools used for assessing vulnerabilities of local communities to climate change

3. Conduct a simple vulnerability assessment using a participatory method

Topical Outline:

I. Introduction

II. Concepts of Vulnerability

III. Methods and Tools for Assessing the Community Vulnerability to Climate

Change

IV. Some Examples of Conducting Community Vulnerability Assessment

V. Concluding Remarks and Take Home Messages


II. Concept of Climate Change Vulnerability

Vulnerability to climate change as “the degree which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.” Meanwhile, Smit et al (2006) defined vulnerability as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. IPCC (2007) mentioned that vulnerability of a system is influenced by a) development pathway; b) physical exposures; c) the distribution of resources d) prior stresses; and e) social government institutions. Exposure basically refers to the components of the system of analysis (i.e. individual/households and the community and other component of the area (biophysical). It could also refer to the natural hazards in present in the area in relation to climate changes and variability. On the other hand, Sensitivity is the overall characteristics of the human and environmental systems. This can be expressed in terms of geography and demography. Lastly, Adaptive capacity refers to the ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate variability and changes, and include adjustments in both behavior and in resources and technologies. Risk is defined as the likelihood of harm and expected loss (Manila Observatory). It is also refers to the average loss all over possible actions that may be taken. In agricultural production, risk arises due to uncertainty on the future consequences of an action. Hazard refers to the physical impacts of disturbance or damaging climatic events.


CHAPTER 4. The Philippine

Climate Change

Scenarios and its

Impacts to

Agriculture

Objective: The chapter aims to give the participants an overview of the Philippine climate

baseline and future scenario. This portion basically focuses the discussion on the observed

trends of in the Philippine climate to include temperature, precipitation, frequency and intensity

of extreme events and sea level rise and the projections of the mentioned climate parameters.

The changes in the climatic condition in the Philippines have been projected using PRECIS

which stands for Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies developed by the Hadley

Center. The primary objective of the PRECIS is to produce higher resolution climate information

from a much coarser climate resolution called General Circulation Model (GCM). The projection

made was based from the special reports of emission scenarios (IPCC, 2007).

Observed Increase in Temperature in the Philippines

IPCC (2007) reported that since 1971, the Philippines‟ mean, minimum and maximum

temperatures have increased 0.14 °C per decade. Another study by Tibig (2004) and Manton et

al (2001) reveals that there are departures from the annual mean, minimum and maximum

temperatures in recent years of 0.61 °C, 0.34 °C and 0.89°C respectively from 1961-1990

normal values which indicates that the temperature over the country increased. Likewise, it was

noted that the frequency of hot nights and days has also increased while the no. of cold days

and nights decreased.

Projected Temperature Rise

The temperature in the Philippines is projected to increase by 1.2-3.9 °C in 2080. (Hulme and

Sheard, 2009 as cited in ADB, 2009).


Observed Rainfall Trends

The decreasing mean annual rainfall and the number of rainy days in the Philippines were noted

since 1960. Onset of rainy season became variable same as the other regions in Southeast

Asia. The trend observed was decreasing rainfall in Luzon and parts of Mindanao and

increasing precipitation in the central and western part of the country (Anglo, 2006 as cited in

ADB, 2009).

Projected Changes in Precipitation

The rainfall in the Philippines will be highly variable as influenced by seasonal changes and

climate extremes like ENSO and will be in higher intensity.

Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Events

The most common manifestation of climate change in the Philippines is the occurrence of

Tropical Cyclones (TC). On the average, 20 TC in a year cross the Philippines with varying

intensity and interval. These TCs are mostly originating from the Pacific. According to Amadore

(2005), the TC is accompanied by continual heavy rains that caused massive landslides and

flash floods killing people and destroying properties as well as the environment. Some recent

examples include Typhoons Ondoy (Ketsana) and Pepeng (Pharma). The intensity and

frequency of El Niño becomes more prevailing.

Projected Frequency and Variability Extremes Events

IPCC (2007) projects a continuous increase intensity and variability in precipitation

accompanied with strong winds. Likewise, an increase of 10-20% in tropical cyclones is also

projected due to increase in sea surface temperature. The increase in temperature also

amplifies the storm surge heights which eventually resulted to stronger winds.

Observe Sea Level Rise

The Philippines is an archipelagic country with 7, 107 islands and has a coastline which extends

over 34, 000 km. Studies showed that there is a slight upward trend in the mean sea level.

Manila as an example, exhibited an increase in sea level presumably due to combined effect of

local subsidence and global sea level rise (Perez, 1999, Hulme and Sheard 1999).

Projected Sea Level Rise

According to IPCC (2007) the sea level will continue to rise with a rate 1.3±0.7 mm per year

over the next several decades. Based from the simulation done by Hulme and Sheard (1999)

the mean sea level in the Philippines will rise up to 0.19-1.4 meters by 2080 relative to the mean

sea level during 1961-1990.


Figure 2. Interrelationship of Climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Source: IPCC, 2007

Climate change affects the different sectors of the community from the forest ecosystems down

to the coastal area (Figure 3). Because of the archipelagic and mountainous feature of the

Philippines and highly depending on the agriculture and natural resources as source of food, our

country is one of the most vulnerable places to climate change (IPCC, 2007). According to IPCC

(2007), the fishing and farming communities in the developing countries including the

Philippines will suffer from the worst impacts of climate change including more frequent

droughts and floods, more crop damage and falling yields, food and water shortages and more

diseases.


Figure 3. Climate change as it impacts different sectors on the community particularly

agriculture.

Major Impacts of Climate Change in Agriculture in the Philippines

Agriculture is one of the major sources of food and employment in the country. According to

NSO (2008) the agriculture and fisheries constituted the 15% of the country‟s domestic products

which is equivalent to PhP 1.1 trillion. Meanwhile the 34% of the total number of employed

Filipino is in the agriculture (NSO, 2009). The effects of climate change on the production and

yield of agricultural crops pose a serious and alarming threat to food security in the country.

Climate change caused significant changes in the temperature, rainfall, frequency and intensity

of extreme events which affect the performances of the agricultural crops and other agricultural

products.

Increase in Temperature

The temperature and rainfall are the major factors that affect the agricultural production in the

Philippines. Increase in temperature intensifies the evapotranspiration, which exacerbate the

stress in crops, particularly in the areas that the water is limiting. The study of Peng et al, (2004)

of IRRI reveals that there is a decrease in rice yield by 10% for every 1°C increase in

temperature. Lansigan et al (2007) shows also that there is a reduction in corn and rice

production and yield when there is increase in temperature (Figure 4). Figure 4 shows that when

there is a high increase in temperature, there is corresponding loss or decrease in rice and corn

production. It is noticeable that the highest decrease in rice production is on 1982-1983 and


1997-1998 which are El Niño years. Another study of Lansigan (2000) reveals that increasing

temperature has direct impacts on the yield of other agricultural crops using a simulation model.

Figure 5 shows the corresponding yield reduction of corn, tomato, sugarcane and peanut for

every 1 °C increase in temperature.

Figure 4. Rice and Corn Production as affected by increase in temperature.

Source: Lansigan et al, 2007

Figure 5. Effects of increasing temperature on other agricultural crops in three different

provinces.

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Pro

du

cti

on

(M

illio

n M

T)

Rice Production Corn Production


Meanwhile, the increase in temperature and humidity significantly reduce feed intake

and body energy reserve, and consequently growth and reproductive performance of livestock.

For instance the study of Vega et al, (2010) on swine, reveals that increase in ambient

temperature resulted to reduction in the number of pigs produced by 33% (from 18 to 12 pigs

produced per sow per year). Similarly, number of piglets weaned per sow per year was also

reduced by 26% (19 to 14 piglets) which shows also shows 10% increase in piglets‟ mortality

prior to weaning (Figure 6).

Figure 6. Effects of increasing temperature on livestock production.

Increased Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Events

The Philippines is always hit by many typhoons in a year and intensified ENSO which

significantly affects the agricultural production. The current cropping pattern of the local farmers

has been altered due to erratic pattern changes of precipitation. The farmers who depend on

rainfall as source of their water supply totally gave up on their farms due to water shortage.

During El Niño year, the occurrence of pests and diseases become more frequent making the

crops more vulnerable to attacks of such. Meanwhile, during the La Niña period, the rain

associated with this phenomenon caused massive surface runoff and severe soil erosion

causing loss of soil fertility and eventually reduction in the crop yield of the farmers.

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112

Months

PW

M (

%)

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

PW

SY (

num

ber)

c

ab

abab

ab

a aab

bb

bb

b

yy

y

yy

y

xy

yyyy

x


The estimated damage caused by the intensified tropical cyclones to the agricultural crops is

about 3 billion pesos. Also, the decline in gross value added in four major crops: rice, maize,

sugarcane and coconut was also noted as accompanied by the damages caused by the

extreme events in the country.

Table 1. Summary of Observed Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture

Climate Change Observed Impacts

Increasing temperature - Decreased crop yields due to heat stress - Increased livestock Mortality - Increased outbreaks of pests and

diseases

Variability and increase in intensity of precipitation and extreme climate related hazards

- Death of livestock - Affect current cropping pattern, land

preparation, crop growing season and seed sowing

- Increased surface runoff and soil erosion caused soil fertility loss and consequently crop yield

Sea Level Rise - Loss of land suitable for cultivation due to advancing sea level

- Salinization or irrigation water which eventually affect crop yields


CHAPTER 5. Climate Change

Impacts in the

Cordillera (Benguet

and Ifugao)

Objective: The section will provide the participants awareness on the observed impacts of climate change specifically on the agriculture sector. This will also create an avenue to discuss the observed impacts of CC in Ifugao and Benguet.

Observed Changes in Climate of Benguet and Ifugao

Based from the FGD and KII conducted in both provinces the following observation are noted on

the changing climate in the areas.

Observed changes on climate of Ifugao

The people in the area claimed that there is variability in the rainfall, daily temperature

aberrations, typhoon occurrence and occurrence of La Niña and El Niño events. The rainfall

variability in the area is further characterized by early and late onset of rainfall, prolonged

rainfall, too much amount of rainfall during rainy season and spontaneous coming of rains

during dry season. Meanwhile, a temperature aberration is described as wide variation in daily

temperature. They claimed that the hot nights become hotter during summer time and cool

nights become cooler. Typhoons become more frequent with increased intensity.

Observed change on climate of Benguet

Observed changes in climatic conditions in Benguet include the increasing frequency and intensity of typhoons, extreme variability in temperature as they experienced shortened cold months and prolonged dry season. Responses to Climate Change

The two pronged approach to deal with climate change consists of Mitigation and

Adaptation. Mitigation is defined as the anthropogenic interventions taken to reduce the sources

or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gasses (IPCC, 2001). On the other hand, adaptation refers

to the changes in the processes, practices and structures undertaken to moderate the potential

damage associated with climate change. (Burton et al, 2001). It also defined as the adjustments


made to reduce the vulnerability or enhance resilience of a particular group of people or

community. Adaptation can be classified as autonomous and planned or policy driven. The

former are actions taken in reaction to actual or expected climate change without policy

intervention while the latter are the adaptations as a result of deliberate policy decisions.

Adaptation can also be reactive and proactive. Reactive are the adaptations taken in response

to actual climate change impacts while proactive are the actions taken to anticipate the potential

impacts of climate change (UNFCCC, 2007). Figure 1 shows the relationship of the two climate

change responses.

Observed Impacts of Climate Change and Variability in the Provinces of Ifugao and

Benguet (Generated from the FGD and Participatory Workshop)

Effects of Changing Climate on Agriculture in Ifugao

The data on effects of climate change on agriculture are based on the participants‟ observations

and experiences, the changes in climatic conditions in the area as described above, negatively

affects their agriculture. Some of the cited effects include:

Low rice yield due to water shortage caused by increased temperature or destroyed crops due to flooding of rice fields;

Increased pests population specifically whorl maggot in rice, aphids in beans and “Tanga” in sweet potato due to either rise in temperatures;

High mortality rate in poultry (chicken) due to hot weather and sporadic rains

Fish kills (tilapia in ponds) due to cold weather

Very poor growth of vegetables due to daily temperature aberrations (i.e. too hot in the morning and too cold in the evening);

Interestingly, farmers‟ observations, experiences and own knowledge of the biophysical

characteristics of their farms, enable them to further describe the effects of climate change

based on farm location and orientation as follows:

Rice terraces in higher elevations are more affected by heavy rains. Because these farms are closer to the water source, too much amount of rain causes overflow thus destroying dikes, flooding rice fields and eroding soils. In situations where there is overflow, rice terraces in lower elevations also get flooded eventually destroying the crop.

During extended dry months, insufficient water supply affects more the rice terraces in lower elevations. Water flows through the rice terraces located in higher elevations only which are closer to the water source.

As regards to temperature effects, rice planted in terraces in higher elevations is cited to be more affected by very low temperatures. On the other hand, rice


terraces located in lower elevations were observed to be affected more by extremely high temperatures, especially during dry months.

- In the case of typhoon occurrence, less damage were experienced in farms with

surrounding natural barriers. (Some stated it as depending on farm orientation).

Impacts of climate variability and extremes on local communities in Benguet

The following is the discussion on the impacts of the climate variability and extreme on local

communities. It is very notable in the discussion the knowledge and perceptions of the

participants on the interactions of the different component of the environment. For example, it is

also clear to them that water shortage could be attributed to several factors such as removal of

vegetation or deforestation, change in land use and population increase. It could be observed

that each of factors cited is directly related to each other.

The participants therefore claim that one of the major impacts of climate variability to them is the

water shortage. This is expected considering that the participants are farmers who relied on

irrigation to supply water requirements of their farms. Some claims that because of the water

shortage, completion between household and irrigation water requirements had become very

contentious as distribution of water has become an issue. While they attributed the water

shortage to climate variability, they also emphasized that deforestation due to land use

conversion should also be cited. The need for new areas for farming was also a result of the

growing population of the community.

Another impact of the climate variability is the confusion on the timing of planting as well as in

the selection of crops. A wrong timing or decision on what crops to plant would be devastating

to the farm productivity and would therefore adversely decrease farmers income. This they

attribute to the erratic weather pattern that has become more pronounce especially during the

last decade.

Because of the water shortage complemented with the high probability of wrong timing of

planting or choice of crops contributed to the remarkable decrease in the agricultural

productivity. The family‟s health and nutrition would be compromised as a result they will be

vulnerable to some diseases especially cold and coughs.

Some participants also attributed army worm infestation to climate change which they believe

provided the necessary environment for the growth and proliferation of army worms.

Finally, and most importantly, they cited land slide and flooding and heavy soil erosion as most

devastating impact of the climate change. These had become very pronounce even during

heavy rains only. According to them, landslides and floods block the roads and affected

transport of their farm products depressing farm gate prices.


CHAPTER 6. Vulnerability and

Impact Assessment

Framework, Tools

and Methods

Objective: This chapter aims to provide the participants different tools and methods that can be

use for assessing the vulnerability and adaptation of Ifugao and Benguet.

I. Introduction

Aside from climate changes, continues destruction and loss of the forest resources in the

Philippines is also one of the serious issues that the country is now facing. These

destruction and losses are caused by the illegal logging, land uses conversation, shifting

cultivation, weak governance and natural causes such as forest fires and spread of

dangerous pests and diseases. Moreover, the rapid growth in human population,

globalization and industrialization aggravated further the loss of forest resources.

Meanwhile, the Philippine lands including agricultural areas are mostly located in the

watershed areas. These watersheds are designated with many uses such as provider of

energy both hydro electric and geothermal energy, source of domestic, commercial and

industrial water and many more. Watersheds are very significant to apprehend both the

economic and environmental sustainability. Unfortunately, these watersheds are

continuously being destructed due to the causes mentioned earlier. The threats of climate

change such as rain-induced landslides, floods and wild forest fires aggravated the

destruction of watershed resources in the country. Because of these scenarios, it is deem

necessary to assess the vulnerabilities of such watershed areas to identify and implement

the necessary adaptations to reduce if not totally prevent the potential impacts of climate

change both on the human and natural system.

Watershed and ecosystem approach will be used as the key physical framework in climate

change vulnerability and adaptation assessment of agriculture. This approach is deemed

appropriate for the V&A assessment of agriculture since water from the watersheds support

almost all of the ecosystems in the area from forests ecosystems to the agricultural lands

and finally the marine ecosystems. The sustainability of the agriculture highly depends on

the integrity of the watersheds. Agriculture depends on the watersheds for its water supply.

The rapid population growth and depletion of watershed resources including water put

pressures on the agricultural areas and other livelihood and eventually food security and


finally human system. Other drivers such as urbanization and conversion of prime

agricultural land areas to residential also threaten the crop production in the country.

The vulnerability and adaptation assessment of agriculture sector will use the framework

below (Figure 5). The details of each step are discussed in the next section.

Figure 1. Systematic Steps for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment of Agriculture

Details of Systematic Steps for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment (Adapted from

UPLB-MDGF Project)

Step 1. Identification and Definition of Scope and Purpose of Assessment

Climate change exerts increased pressure on land and water resources which alter the state or

hydrology of the watershed, and also bring about changes on agricultural production systems in

terms of shifts in rainfall patterns, reduced crop yields, and limiting productive land areas due to

floods and droughts. Hence, it is deemed necessary to identify and define prudently the focus

of the assessment giving more attention on the areas that would likely be affected by the climate

change. Some of these are:

Upland Agricultural Lands

Low Land Prime Agricultural Lands

Rain-fed and Irrigated Agricultural Lands

Step 1. Identification and

Definition of Scope and

Purpose of Assessment

Step 2. Description of

people, areas and sectors

that will be affected

Step 3. Assessment of

Exposure to Climate

Step 4. Determination of

areas inherently sensitive to

climate change

Step 5. Assessment and

rating of Adaptive Capacity

Step 6. Vulnerability Rating

Step 7. Impact Assessment Step 8. Identification of

Adaptation for Future

Climate Changes


Agroforestry Farms

Plantation Crops

The methods useful for this activity include Focus Group Discussion (FGD), Key Informant

Interview (KII). Discussions with the stakeholders about the past disaster events are common

source of information about the likely areas and people that will be affected by future climate

related extreme events. Review of documents and records of past disasters at the Office of Civil

Defense, municipal disaster coordinating committee, MSWD, Philippine National Red Cross,

Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) and NCSB for damages to crops and livelihood, will be

helpful in identifying those areas that are likely to be affected by future climate related disasters

and extreme events.

Step 2. Description of people, areas and sectors that will be affected

People, areas and sectors that will be affected by climate change based from the scope of

assessment in step need to be identified.

Establishment of baseline information and assessment on the impacts of climate change to the

identified scope is important activity. Records and documents on the impacts of climate change

can be gathered in the form of primary and secondary sources. Methods that can be used in

gathering primary records are FGD, KII and participatory workshops while secondary data can

be collected from the records and documents of DENR, DA, BAS NCSB and LGUs.

Activities under this step include the biophysical and socio-economic characterization of the

people, areas and the sectors that will be affected based from the data gathered.

Step 3. Assessment of Exposure to Climate

Basically, the input for this activity is the output of the previous step. Using the characterization

made from the previous step, the past and future (i.e. 2020, 2050 and 2080 time slices) climate

risks and the exposure of the people, areas and sectors identified and defined will be assessed.

Climate change scenarios downscaled for the specific places will be utilized for the assessment

purpose. SUCs, local communities, LGUs, NGOs and other stakeholders will be involved in the

assessment process. The Maps of Areas exposed to climate change will be generated following

the steps:

a. The projected increase in rainfall in the future will likely enhance the flood related

risk in the future. Future flood hazard maps and rain-induced landslide hazard

maps can be developed by overlaying existing flood risk map with the projected

rainfall change map for year say 2020 and 2050. The existing flood hazard map

developed by the MGB of DENR will be adjusted by overlaying it with slope map

to mask out (exclude) areas with slope greater than 30% and away from streams


as flood prone areas. The future flood and landslide hazard maps can be

classified using the scheme in the table below.

Percent Rainfall

Change (2020; 2050)

Existing Flood Risk

Low Moderate High

<5% Low Moderate High

5-10% Moderate High Very High

>10% High Very High Extremely

High

b. Future drought risk map can be developed based on projected rainfall and

temperature change in 2020, 2050 and will be calibrated by overlaying the future

drought risk map with existing drought risk map.

Future Drought Risk

is

If Rainfall Change

(%) is

And Temperature

Change (%) is

Moderate <5 <1

High <5 1-2

High <5 >2

Low 5-10 <1

Moderate 5-10 1-2

High 5-10 >2

Low >10 <1; 1-2

Moderate >10 >2

Calibrated Future

Drought Risk

Existing Drought Risk

Low Moderate High

Low Low Moderate High

Moderate Moderate High Very High

High High Very High Extremely


High

c. Map of sensitive areas due to topography will be overlaid with climate hazard

maps to determine the levels of exposure of sensitive areas due to climate

hazards as illustrated in the Table below.

Sensitive Areas

due to

Topography

Risk Category (flood, landslide and drought)

Low Moderate High

Low Low Moderate High

Moderate Moderate High Very High

High High Very High Extremely High

Step 4. Determination of Areas Inherently Sensitive to Climate Change

Drivers of change exert increased pressure on land and water resources which alter the state or

hydrology of the watershed, and also bring about changes on agricultural production systems in

terms of shifts in rainfall patterns, reduced crop yields, and limiting productive land areas due to

floods and droughts. Critical evaluation of these drivers of change is important to determine the

focus or priority, and also to determine the data and information needed to do the analysis. In

assessing vulnerability of agricultural crop production systems to climate change temperature

increase, shifts in rainfall patterns, typhoons, droughts, etc. are important factors to consider. It

should be noted that climate risks and hazards vary from one location to another. Some areas

are more prone to droughts than to floods considering their environmental conditions and

geographical locations. These risks can be quantified in terms of probabilities of occurrence but

can also be simplified qualitatively to „low‟ risk, „medium‟ risk, and „high‟ risk. Identification of

sources of climate risks can be facilitated with the use of available data and information such as

maps of frequencies of occurrence of extreme climate events, typhoons, floods, droughts, etc.

that adversely affect crop production systems.

Step 5. Assessment and Rating of Adaptive Capacity

This activity also involves the determination of climate change adaptation (CCA) measures, and

innovations good practices (GPs) to enhance climate resilience in agricultural production

system. This may also include indigenous knowledge of forecasting seasonal climate for the

next cropping season, determination of best planting dates, scheduling of activities such as

irrigation, and efficient water management schemes. Good adaptation measures may also be

practiced in the choice of crops to be planted, crop rotation, and planting of stress-resistant


varieties of crops. Best practices may have evolved based on traditional knowledge and recent

innovations based on scientific advances.

The suite of good practices and adaptation measures need to be evaluated in terms of a set of

criteria specified by the stakeholders who may include effectiveness and impacts in reducing

adverse consequences, economic efficiency, social acceptability, environmental sustainability,

and scientific soundness.

Inventory and assessment of CCA measures and GPs may be conducted through focused

group discussions (FGDs), key informant interviews (KIIs), and surveys in the farm

communities. The list of options and GPs may be assessed, prioritized and validated at different

levels, namely, from farm or barangay level up to LGU levels (municipal or provincial as the

case may be). Features, properties, and requirements of these CCA measures and GPs should

be properly documented.

Step 6. Vulnerability Rating

The vulnerability rating will follow after the vulnerability assessment to determine the priority

areas defending on the degree of vulnerability of the people, areas and sectors under

assessment. The vulnerability of agricultural crops to climate change can be evaluated by

assessing its effects on crop productivity, area planted to the crops, and economic returns at the

farm and area (e.g. community, municipal, provincial) levels. Vulnerability of crop production to

climate variability can also be determined by evaluating the impacts on area planted or

harvested. The analysis can be based on available historical records from government

agencies (e.g. DA-BAS), and LGUs. Local information may also be obtained from the MAOs,

NGOs working in the farm communities as well farmer leaders, and other key informants. Data

and information can be collected by various means such as FGD, KII, and formal surveys.

The most recent information on risks and hazards associated with climate change such as

temperature increase, shifts in rainfall patterns, typhoons, droughts, etc. in the Philippines have

been published in the literature. However, this information available in terms of maps have to

be downscaled to specific locations (e.g. province, district, or even municipality) to make them

more useful. In the absence of location-specific information, threshold values may be estimated

and applied to the particular areas. For crops, yield or production losses may be estimated

either separately by type of climate-related risks, or combined analysis by considering the

effects and impacts of climate risks simultaneously. Evaluation can be done by barangay or any

land evaluation unit (LEU) in the municipality, which can then be consolidated to come up with

estimates for the LGUs.

Step 7. Impact Assessment

There are three approaches that can be used in evaluating the impacts of climate

change on agriculture, namely: empirical, simulation and using threshold values. Empirical


approach utilizes historical data available on crop damages/losses due to climate change as

basis while simulation approach utilized process-based model under different situations. In the

absence of models, threshold level can be used based from expert judgment. The potential

impacts on crop yields can be evaluated using process-based crop simulation models (e.g.

DSSAT models for many different crops, ORYZA for rice, etc.). However, these models are

data-intensive requiring location-specific data on daily weather records (e.g. rainfall,

temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, etc.), soils data (soil types, soil moisture content,

texture, etc.), variety-specific crop genetic coefficients (e.g. photosynthetic efficiency), and

cultural management practices. While data on variety-specific crop genetic coefficients are

available for only a few crops and local cultivars, they have yet to be generated for many local

varieties of major crops before these process-based crop models can be used. In case of

unavailability of needed input data for the models, threshold values generated from scientific

studies and simulation analysis can be used to assess potential yield losses due to climate

change. For example, recent studies have shown that a 1oC increase in temperature in the

Philippines will result to about 8-14% loss in rice yield during the dry season based on

simulation using IR-64 and IR-72 rice varieties. For rice crop, projected temperature beyond

36oC will already induced spikelet sterility resulting to reduced crop yield. Similarly, warming by

0.5 to 1.5°C could decrease corn yield potential by about 2 to 5% based on the evaluation using

the local IPB 911 variety. Threshold values for other crops have to be determined from the

published studies or gray literature, or even from experts or specialists for specific crops.

The effects and impacts of climate risks on crop production vary depending on the stages of

plant growth and development (i.e. vegetative stage, reproductive stage, and ripening stage).

Crop will incur yield loss depending on when the climate hazard occurs relative to crop growth

stage. The following yield loss or crop damage coefficients from the Department of Agriculture

(DA) (Table 2.3) may be used to estimate yield losses for rice due to floods, droughts, and

typhoons with strong winds (DA , 2009).

Table __. Rice yield reduction coefficients due to drought (Source: DA, 2009).

Period of Stress % Yield Loss

Early vegetative stage (Transplanting to tillering) 30-50

Early vegetative stage to reproductive stage (Transplanting to

panicle initiation)

60-75

Early vegetative stage to reproductive stage (Transplanting to

heading)

65-70

Maximum vegetative to reproductive stage (Maximum tillering to

heading)

45-50

Reproductive to maturity stage (Panicle to maturity) 60-100

Reproductive to maturity stage (Booting to maturity) 60-100


Reproductive to maturity stage (Flowering to maturity) 60-100

Late reproductive to maturity stage (Milking to maturity) 45-60

Maturity stage Soft dough to maturity; Hard dough to maturity) 10 or less

Transplanting to maturity stage (Minimum tillering to maturity) 95-100

Source: Philippines Department of Agriculture

Table __. Estimated crop yield loss for rice due to typhoon-induced strong wind (Source: DA, 2009).

Crop Growth stage

Wind velocity (kph)

70-100 101-150 >150

Period of Exposure (hrs)

< or =12 >12 < or =12 >12 < or =12 >12

Estimated Yield Loss (%)

Booting <10-15 15-20 15-25 20-30 15-30 25-35

Flowering 10-25 25-30 15-30 30-35 25-40 35-50

Maturity <10-15 15-20 10-20 20-25 15-25 25-30

Table__. Estimated rice crop yield loss due to flood at different stages of plant growth and

development (Source: DA, 2009).

Plant Growth Stage Clear Water Muddy Water

Days of submergence

1-2 3-4 5-6 7 1-2 3-4 5-6 7

Minimum tillering/ Maximum

tillering

10 15-20 20-30 30-50 10-20 20-30 30-50 50-100

Panicle initiation/ Booting

stage (Partially inundated, i.e.

9-12 cm long remains above

water)

10 20-30 30-65 40-80 10-20 30-50 40-85 50-100

Panicle initiation/ Booting

stage (Fully inundated*)

15-25 20-45 30-80 50-

100

15-30 40-70 40-85 50-100

Flowering stage/ Maturity

stage

10-15 15-45 20-30 30-70 15-30 40-70 50-90 60-100


Ripening stage 0 10-15 15-20 15-20 5 10-20 15-30 15-30

Step 8. Identification of Future Adaptation Responses

Potential CCA options to increase climate resilience of agricultural production systems

under anticipated climate conditions in the future can be evaluated considering their

effectiveness, applicability, and pre-requisites in practical applications. These options may be

classified in terms of extent of applications, e.g. short-term, medium term, and long-term. For

example, a dynamic cropping calendar is a short-term CCA measure to climate variability.

Breeding of stress-resistant varieties of crops to climate risks is an example of long-term

adaptation. Planting of drought resistant rice varieties such as PSB Rc 12 and PSB Rc 14

during the dry season is recommended. The so-called “Sub1” rice cultivar which can withstand

prolong flooding many be planted in flooded or water-logged areas. Moreover, the suite of CCA

options may also include innovations to good practices with anticipated future effects and

impacts beyond what are expected. The combination of CCA measures may be evaluated in

terms of effectiveness and efficiency translated in terms of yield and potential yield losses saved

under current or baseline conditions.


CHAPTER 8. Proposed Vulnerability

and Adaptive Capacity

Assessment Framework,

Tools and Methods for

Benguet/Ifugao

I. Purpose of the Assessment: To determine extent of vulnerability and the capability of the various components of the agricultural system to cope up or overcome the adversities of climate change impacts thereby providing a basis for planning, prioritizing or developing adaptation strategies for the agriculture sector of Benguet and Ifugao at the provincial, municipal, community and farm levels.

II. Basic Features of the Assessment Tool:

a. The approach is community-based; b. Anchored on the definition that climate change vulnerability is the result of the

interaction and interrelation of three major factors: hazard, exposure and adaptation; c. It views agriculture as a holistic system with biophysical, economic, socio-cultural, and

political components d. Two major components of the assessment:

1. Climate Change Factors and their Impact on the different components of the agricultural system,

2. Capability of the system to cope with adversities and further develop into a resilient production system

III. Framework for the Assessment Tool

The vulnerability and resilience to climate change is determined by the nature of the natural hazard, the exposure level, and the adaptive capacity of the affected community (EEPSEA, 2008). The adaptive capacity could be gauged with the hazard preparedness, resilience, and capacity to recover from damage caused by the hazard (Figure 1). Climate change is said to result to different abnormalities in the climate. These abnormalities will have different effects on the community and the natural resources. A community may have different populations, and different and living in different environmental conditions, hence, the same community may have different levels of vulnerability to different types of natural hazards. Vulnerability of a community to the different abnormalities will also differ. In assessing therefore for the vulnerability of a community, it is important to first identify the type climate abnormalities that the climate change could bring. The adaptive capacity to climate change can be seen by the hazard preparedness of the community, their resilience, and the capacity to recover from the damage caused by the hazard. Community resilience can be resilience in terms of the biophysical and socio-economic.


Figure 1. Framework for the Community-based Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptive

Capacity Assessment of the Agricultural Sector for Benguet and Ifugao (AgSys-VACA)

IV. Procedure in the Conduct of the Assessment There are three major phases of the assessment with several activities in each phase, listed as follows:

a. Pre-assessment and planning phase 1. Organizing the vulnerability and capacity assessment team. 2. Study of the area through secondary information 3. Planning and preparation for the field work

b. Actual assessment

1. Site reconnaissance 2. Describe climate-related hazards in the community (types, location, frequency,

seasonality, impacts, and magnitude of damage). 3. Describe vulnerabilities and capacities of the community. 4. Conduct hazard mapping 5. Identify and assess current adaptation measures

c. Post-assessment phase 1. Integration of results 2. Formulation of recommendations


The following are the steps in the conduct of the assessment: 1. Organizing the Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment Team. A minimum of five

members will be sufficient to conduct the vulnerability assessment. The team should include representatives of the following groups: the municipal agricultural office, municipal development planner, municipal disaster coordinating council, response organizations (e.g., police, fire, and people‟s organizations. While not all of these are required on a continuous basis, they should all provide an input in the determination of “vulnerability” and in the development of a meaningful solution to the problem. These may include emergency medical services (EMS), local utilities, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), social services, and key volunteer organizations (i.e., those representing or those servicing vulnerable populations).

2. Study of the area through secondary information. Collect secondary data regarding the

target community from various sources. The data to be collected and sources may include the following:

Data Requirements Possible Sources

Climate Statistics (Rainfall, temperature, humidity, wind, tropical cyclones, drought occurrences, changes in climate)

PAG-ASA, local weather stations (e.g., state colleges and universities, research centers), comprehensive land use plans (CLUPs)

Agricultural Data (Production areas, soil types/characteristics, farming systems, crops planted, cropping patterns and schedules, nutrient and pest management, support services, crop yields, damages, production inputs and losses, pests and diseases, livestock production, government programs/projects)

Municipal Agricultural Office, Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, state colleges and universities, research centers, comprehensive land use plans (CLUPs)

Community Map Barangay development plans 3. Planning and preparation for the field work. 4. Site reconnaissance. 5. Description of climate-related hazards in the community (types, location, frequency,

seasonality, impacts, and magnitude of damage), as follows:


Step Data to be collected Output Method

a. Identify climate-related hazards in the community. List down and describe the nature of hazards in terms of its recurrence, seasonality, location

Type of hazards

Seasonality

Location

List and nature of hazards

Seasonal occurrence of hazards

Timeline (hazard history and significant events that happened in the community)

Seasonal calendar (seasonality of the hazards and activities)

b. For each of the

hazards, determine how frequent the community is exposed to the hazard, what were affected and their impacts

Frequency of exposure to the hazards

What were affected

Magnitude of the damage (e.g. effects on crop yields)

Observed trends

Prevalence and severity of the hazards

Historical transect (how much natural resources have been affected by the hazards)

Matrix ranking (determine hazard that has most serious impact on the community

6. Describe vulnerabilities and capacities of the community. The following is the

procedure:

Step Data needed Output Method

a. Identify high risk areas (harsh environments)

Flood-prone areas

Landslide-risk areas

Drought sensitive areas

Location of “high risk” areas

Key informant interview

Community mapping

Transect walk

b. Identify vulnerable

farming systems • Identify major

farming systems (crops and livestock)

• Determine sensitivity of crops and livestock to extreme climate conditions (severity of impacts of crops and livestock)

Areas planted to annual crops (rice, corn, vegetables)

Areas with large number of livestock

Vulnerable farming systems

Secondary data (area planted to crops, sensitivity of crops to climate change)

Transect walk

Seasonal calendar (rainfall, cropping pattern and farm activities, seasonality of income)


• Map areas devoted to climate-sensitive crops and livestock

c. Map high-density

areas High density areas High population

density map Social mapping

d. Identify operational

sectors of the community

Operational sectors (e.g. residential, farms, industrial, etc.)

Operational sector map

Operational sector mapping

e. Describe socio-

economic condition of the community

Population change

Age structure

Dependency rate

Household income level

Sources of income (including on-farm, off-farm, and non-farm)

Socio-economic resilience of the community

Secondary data


Wealth ranking

f. Identify “most

vulnerable” groups Most vulnerable

groups List of “most

vulnerable” groups

Matrix ranking considering Identifying those living in harsh environments, low income, dependent on agriculture for source of income, children, disabled

g. Describe climate

hazard preparedness of the community

General knowledge of the hazards

Presence of early warning system

Access to information/communication facilities

Presence of adaptation measures

Climate hazard-preparedness information


h. Identify capacities of

the “vulnerable groups”

Physical capacity

Cognitive ability

Resource availability (e.g. access to

List of capacities

Venn diagram



transportation, shelter or medicine)

Linguistic capacity (i.e. comprehension of key messages)

Key linkages (e.g. to warning or response systems)

Degree of isolation (i.e. physical, political or cultural)

Strength or availability of support systems (e.g. neighbors, community self help, family, NGOs, or service providers, agricultural support (shelter for livestock, rehabilitation support)

Note: The procedure in the conduct of the different participatory tools could be taken from Abarquez, I. and Zubair Murshed. 2004. Community-based Disaster Risk Management : Field Practitioners‟ Handbook. Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC), Klong Luang, Pathumthani, Thailand.

7. Conduct hazard mapping. From the previous step, capture the hazards, vulnerability,

natural resources and facilities in community and/or digitized maps. Identify intersection or overlap of “high risk areas” and “most vulnerable groups”. These are areas at risk from specific hazards and vulnerable members of the community.

8. Identify and assess current adaptation measures. For each of the hazards that the community has experienced, identify what adaptations the community has done to lessen the impact of the hazards. For each of the adaptation, determine their prevalence among livelihood, effectiveness for the specific hazard, who makes the decision, and the length of time the action Is effective.

The adaptive capacity assessment can be done at the individual farmer/ household level and at the community level. The following are the data that can be collected:

Individual-level adaptive capacity

Community-level adaptive capacity

• Literacy rate • Dependency rate

• Municipal revenue per capita • Bayanihan practice (farmer to farmer


• Other sources of income (off-farm and non-farm)

• Adjusting the planting season (delay planting or early harvesting)

• Change rice variety to drought tolerant variety

• Replanting • Manual repair of rice terraces or dikes • Water flow control in terraces (blocking

water source from top in times when too much rain)

• Selling of animals and/other properties (like jewelries, lands)

• Loan from neighbors/money lenders/institutions

• Support from relatives

extension; number of relatives) • Availability of technology • Adaptability of technology • Support institutions (weather forecast,

climate change information dissemination, anticipative programs by the DA, disaster coordinating bodies);

• Access to credit • Diversified farming • Community participation in watershed

management • Community involvement on repair of

eroded terraces • Water-saving techniques

Assess the adaptation measures according to the following criteria:

Do the adaptation measures address high priority vulnerable group or components of the agricultural system?

Are the adaptation measures likely to be effective?

How expensive are the adaptation measures?

Are there institutional, legal, socio-cultural, economic and technological barriers to the implementation of the adaptation measures?

V. Integration of Results

VI. Analysis and Recommendation

component 3a module

Documents

climate change vulnerability

climate change ipcc

brunt of climate change

impacts of climate change

climate variability

changing climate

impact assessment tools

available vulnerability