comparison of voters and party elites

1st Conference of the European Political Science Association

A comparison of voters and party elites:evidence from political surveys in Greece

Ioannis Andreadis

Aristotle University of Thessaloniki


Major Greek political parties

• New Democracy (ND) – Right-wing conservative party (main

opposition)– Has ruled Greece from 1974 to 1981, from

1990 to 1993 and from 2004 until 2009.

• Pan-Hellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) – Left-wing socialist party (current government) – Has ruled Greece during the rest of the years


Data Sources

• Comparative Candidates Survey (CCS)– 195 ND and PASOK candidates – web based survey during the beginning of 2010

• Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES)– telephone interviews at the end of 2009– 1022 filled questionnaires

• 744 have answered what party they have voted for• 594 have replied that they have voted for PASOK or ND

• European Parliament Election Study 2009, Voter Study (PIREDEU)


Satisfaction with Democracy

• On the whole, are you very satisfied, fairly satisfied, not very satisfied, or not at all satisfied with the way democracy works in Greece?

• Previous research on voters– economic difficulties reduce satisfaction– gap in satisfaction with democracy between

winners and losers


Candidates’ SWD 2007-2009

71%

37%

50%

53%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

ND 2007

ND 2009

PASOK 2007

PASOK 2009

not very/not at all satisfied very/fairly satisfied


Satisfaction with Democracy

53%

40%

37%

25%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

PASOK candidates

PASOK voters

ND candidates

ND voters

not very/not at all satisfied very/fairly satisfied


Most important problem

Reported problems Voters Candidates

Economy / Economic crisis

65.1% 75%

Unemployment 15.1% 6%

Wasted public money / Corruption

8.2% 9%

Other 11.6% 10%


What happens today?


Greek version of Spain's 'Indignados'


Voters’ Left-Right self-placement

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Left 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Right

ND voters PASOK voters

PASOK x: 4.79, m: 5, var: 4.3ND x: 7.4, m: 8, var: 3.5

Voter positioned on 6:From PASOK: |6-4.79|=1.21 From ND: |6-7.4|=1.4


Left/Right Placement

Q1 Q2 Q3 IQR Mode M %

PASOK Candidates SP 2 3 4 2 3 31,9%

PASOK Candidates PP 3 4 5 2 4 36,2%

PASOK Voters SP 4 5 5 1 5 47,7%

PASOK Voters PP 4 5 5 1 5 46,9%

ND Candidates SP 5 6 8 3 5 25,5%

ND Candidates PP 6 7 8 2 8 34,0%

ND Voters SP 6 8 9 3 5/10 21,5%

ND Voters PP 6 8 10 4 10 25,8%


Income and wealth should be redistributed to ordinary people

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

PASOK candidates

PASOK voters

ND candidates

ND voters

agree-strongly agree neither agree nor disagree disagree - strongly disagree


Politics should abstain from intervening in the economy

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

PASOK candidates

PASOK voters

ND candidates

ND voters



Women should be free to decide on matters of abortion

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

PASOK candidates

PASOK voters

ND candidates

ND voters



Same-sex marriages should be prohibited by law

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

PASOK candidates

PASOK voters

ND candidates

ND voters



People who break the law should be given stiffer sentences

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

PASOK candidates

PASOK voters

ND candidates

ND voters



Immigrants should be required to adapt to the customs of Greece

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

PASOK candidates

PASOK voters

ND candidates

ND voters



Conclusions

• Economic crisis is the most important problem facing Greece today (everyone)

• This has affected SWD (voters and losers)• Candidates are on the left of their voters• Voters’ self placement = party placement

– Economic left/right: candidates more extreme– Libertarian – authoritarian: candidates on the

left of their voters

• Evidence in favor of robust statistics use

comparison of voters and party elites

Documents