Why has Russia not transited to democracy? Evaluating Fukoyama’s end of history

Plan

• Introduction• History-Marxism-leninism-Stalinism-

Gorbascev• Post soviet union political environment• Failure of liberal reforms.• Return to increasing authoritarianism.

Introduction• Geographically, the biggest country in the world. Most of the

population in Europe, and most of the territory in Asia (Eurasia)• 4/5th are ethnically Russian and the rest are of other ethnicities fighting for more independence• Identity crisis a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma (W. Churchil) Unpredictable, confusing. Western/non western debate.

“idealism of Russian soul’’ Economic growth under Putin improved public mood but at the

expense of greater authoritarianism thus lashing any hopes for transition to democracy.

History-what went wrong?

• Failed experiment of Marx’s communism?But what is Marxism?• dialectic materialism-class struggle over material resources shape

history. All fighting essentially for economic interests.• History of mankind is the history of means of production (slavery-

feudalism-CAPITALISM)• Critical of capitalism-alienating, exploiting labor, hoarding surplus

value. • The proletarians have nothing to lose but their chains! They have a

world to win! Working men of all countries, unite!

Marx reloaded…

• But Marx did not lay down the post revolution framework of running the society

• In Marx’s revolution, other cleavages like ethnicity, religion etc were to be submerged with the proletarian revolution

Russia welcomes Marxism

• Early industrialization phase. Only 8% were proletariats but in miserable safety, legal conditions as compared to western counterparts

• Workers and intelligentia’s disposition was consistent with Marx’s ideas. Russia-a ripe ground for revolution

• Bolshevic revolution 1917 (Lennin). One party rule with democratic centralism model. Anti Bolsheviks, anti communism factions were banned. After a civil war, finally soviet union formulated in 1923.

Stalinism

• Heir of Lenin• Three opposition movementsLeft-Trotsky=revolutionery momentum to be carried on to

western Europe.Right-Bukharin=a gradual evolutionary socialism by

improving efficiency even by retaining the already owners of factories i.e. the capitalists and letting peasants produce freely.

The centre or orthodox=both rationalized economic policies as well as spread of revolutionary ideals of 1917.

Stalin cont…

Stalin’s position• “Socialism in one country”. Trotsky and Bukharin expelled.5 year planning system• Agricultural collectivization-peasants were leftovers of class

struggle. Assaults and take over of peasant lands, livestocks. 1932 , famine killed millions and finally party’s control over food.

• centrally planned production targets for every manager and worker within the Soviet Union

• During the First Five-Year Plan, an industrial infrastructure was built inthe Soviet Union in an incredibly short period of time

Stalin’s legacy (1952)

• A superpower against west (cold war). Industrial production matched with West

• Years of dictatorship and terror had killed off whatever popular enthusiasm had once existed for heroic efforts to “build socialism’’

Count down to the fall

• Rampant corruption, black market. Immobility of institutional authorities. Some stayed till life time.

• By the mid-1970s, the Soviet economy became dangerously dependent upon energy exports and sales of vodka

• Afghan war• International pressures (evil empire)

Gorbaschev-last blow to sinking empire

Liberal reforms, undertaken by Premier Mikhail Gorbachev, reduced the power of the state:

• Perestroika: Reduced state control over the economy• Glasnost: Reduced state control over information (media) and

citizens’ political activityGoal = Maintain Communist rule by modernizing economy and

devolving power. 1990 key:a. Flawed elections create enormous pro-Communist (anti-reform) bloc in the legislature (supreme Soviet)b. Gorbachev and liberals (pro-Western/pro-democracy) repeal Article 6 of Soviet constitution – allows emergence of formal political parties

Toward free market and privatizationunder Yeltsin

• Running on a platform of greater democracy and marketization, Yeltsin gained 90 percent of the votes in his Moscow electoral district.

• Yeltsin’s calculation: devolve power to Republics (some of which want to secede). Reduce Gorbachev’s power by undermining authority of central government. Becomes president in 1991.

• Hardliners support coup which fails to bring down Yeltsin.

Battle against parliament

• Yeltsin proposes “shock therapy” economic reform in 1992: rapid privatization and lifting price controls inflation central bank raises interest rates to suck money out of the economy recession

• Communists block some policies in the Russian Parliament (Supreme Soviet and Congress of People’s Deputies).

• 1993: Yeltsin assumes “special powers” to implement reforms by decree

• parliament impeaches. Yeltsin dissolves it. Military sides by him

Privatization failure

1. Weak institutions• Weak legal framework for corporate governance• Political uncertainties2. Managers had an incentive to maximize their

short-term capital gains by selling assets for personal gain rather than keep the enterprise as a going concern and maximize future profits thus decapitalizing the enterprise at the expense of other (smaller) shareholders.

Fig. 2. GDP change in FSU economies, 1989 = 100%

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Central Europe

Uzbekistan

Belarus

Kazakhstan

Estonia

Turkmenistan

Azerbaijan

Latvia

Lithuania

Tajikistan

Russia

Kyrgyzstan

Armenia

Ukraine

Georgia

Moldova

economic costs and increasing concentration

Real wages, down threefold since 1992!• By summer 1996, most shares in Russia's

largest firms transferred to a small number of major banks (and their owners) at shockingly low prices.

• In Russia today, these “oligarchs” control up to 85% of the value of the country's leading private companies.

•Democracy hijacked!

Hijack con…

• Private media is owned by oligarchs supports Yeltsin in 1996 elections.$500m spent however law limited it to $3m.

• West supports Yeltsin due to his privatization and free market economic model. Loan of $10b granted

• Yeltsin wins. But cancels all promises made during campaign.

• 1998 economic collapse (aftershock of Asian crisis) = anti-Yeltsin sentiment. Oligarchs turn on him fearing reforms. Yeltsin resigns.

Putin’s era

a. Unity: New “party of power” formed 3 months before 1999 election– active assistance from• then President Yeltsin• then Prime Minister Vladimir Putin

– Combines elements of platforms of all other parties (non-ideological party) – draws support from past centrists and nationalists

Party cleavages

• No successful party emphasizes freedom or democracy:

• Nationalists advocate authoritarian state to repress internal enemies of Russia, Communists want return to command economy, and

• Unity just wants people to support the government

. Recentralisation Construction of an unitary state

• Presidential representatives in regions. Pressures on regional leaders.

• Creation of federal districts: aiming at increasing the federal government’s presence in the regions

• New Tax Code: Greater control over tax receipts and greater share of taxes going to the centre

Bye bye civil society

• Regional media absorbed into federally-run media. Most of the mass media economically or politically dependant on government. Massacres and massive human rights violations in Chechniya kept secret.

• Bye to independent workers unions. FNPR = central organization of unions, left over from Soviet Union. No significant internal reform to date.

• 2001: Labor code restricts non-FNPR unions

Bye, Rule of law

• Putin issues decrees with no obvious source of Constitutional authority

• Putin targets any oligarchs that oppose him (i.e. give money to political opponents) but not those that support him or stay out of politics

In a nutshell

• Accumulation of power in the presidency• Prime minister merely auxilary of the “omnipotent”

president• No opposition in Parliament (death of party pluralism)• Weak civil society• The Judiciary: not independent, ineffective, corrupt• Central government and bureaucracy as solution for

everything, overcentralisation• Additional effects of the war in Chechnya on the political

system: reinforcement of already existing authoritarian pattern, cult of personality, nationalism, centralism

1. Data: Freedom House (1 most free, 7 least)

Personality cults

• October 2009 poll:– 23%: All the signs of a personality cult around

Vladimir Putin already exist.– 26%: More and more conditions are being created

for such a personality cult– 38%: No sign of a personality cult– 12% undecided

When will Russia become a democracy? Russians’ opinions (2004):

• 18% - never• 10% - it is a democracy already• 5% - in 5 years• 23% - in 15-20 years• 13% - in 20-50 years• 8% - in more than 50 years

Towards conclusion

• Russia is not a democracy in transition. It’s system of semi autocracy that ‘works’.

• According to Nations in Transit 2004, President Putin’s policies “have sought to centralize power, leaving little room for a vibrant civil society, independent media, or political opposition… While Russia has emphasized the importance it places on maintaining strong ties to the West, it is headed in an increasingly authoritarian direction.”

• Examples: repression of NGO’s, of independent media, important influence on elections by Government

Fukuyama questionedRussia is not democratic. The so called “Democratization” was a

means used by elites (Gorbachev then Yeltsin) to defeat opponents.History is not ended!