communicating reliability, risk, and resiliency to...

APWA NC

Leadership and Management Conference

August 3, 2018

J.D. Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP [email protected]

Communicating Reliability, Risk, and Resiliency

to Decision Makers

JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP

Five Key Points

1. Communicating technical information is different than

communicating for marketing or political purposes

2. Have empathy for the decision maker

3. Have endless respect for the decision maker

4. Group effects are especially important for strategic

decisions with complexity and uncertainty

5. Less is more – its about the decision maker, not you


The Situation


Our Report

• Executive Summary with Root Causes

• Background (3/4 page)

• Problem Statement (1 sentence)

• Methodology (1 page)

• Primary and Secondary Causes

– Summary(1/4 page)

– Discussion (1 page)

– Contributing Factors (2 pages)

• Recommended Actions (1 sentence)

6 Pages of Text and 4 one-page Attachments


Two Simple Attachments

Simple Diagram The 5 Whys


One Moderately Complex Attachment


Detailed Attachment

• Two simple attachments

• One moderately complex

attachments

• One very detailed

attachment (FMEA)

Communicating Technical Information

is Different


Decisions and Decision Making

• Intuitive, Common Sense, a priori, System 1

– Risk: Intuitive and Common Sense

– Planning: Limited

– Decision: Run! (Operational)

• Analytical, Statistical, a posteriori, System 2

– Risk: Analytical and Statistical

– Planning: Long time period, people and numbers

– Decision: Thoughtful and Measured (Strategic)

A Decision: An irrevocable (or irreversible) choice among alternative ways to allocate resources.

Source: SDG


Reliability, Risk and Resiliency

• Reliability is the probability that an item will perform its intended function for a specified interval under stated conditions.1

• Risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives. An effect is a deviation from the expected – either positive or negative.2

• Resiliency is the ability to return to the original form or state after being after being bent, compressed, or stretched or the ability to recover return to the desired state readily following the application from some form of stress such as illness, depression, or adversity.3

1 MIL-STD-721C (1981) and O’Connor et al; 2 ISO 31000-2009; 3 ASCE


Most People Do Not Understand

Probabilities

Understanding weather forecasts, or “the chance of rain”.

A. The percent of area over which precipitation will fall

B. The percent of time precipitation will be observed on the forecast day

C. The amount of days similar to this one when it actually rains

D. The amount of rain that will fall


Best Practice

• Frequency (87 of 234 cases) is preferable

to percentages (37.2%)

• Frequency also gives insight into

“confidence interval”

• Usually best to present both frequency and

percentage


Ethics, Decision Making, and a

Normative Approach

Virtue

Socrates, Aristotle

Deontological

Immanuel Kant

Consequentialism

John Stuart MillJeremy Bentham

Individuals Matter

“Golden Rule”

Absolutes

Consequences Matter

“Ends justify the means”

Good:

Love, Joy, Peace, Patience, Kindness, Goodness,

Faithfulness, Gentleness, Self-control

Bad:

Fornication, Impurity, Licentiousness, Idolatry,

Sorcery, Enmity, Strife, Jealousy, Anger, Selfishness,

Dissension, Party Spirit, envy, Drunkenness,

Carousing, and the like

Source: Paul’s letter to the Galatians

Virtue:

Source: Aristotle

Virtue:

Courage, Temperance, Liberality, Magnificence,

Magnanimity, Proper, Ambition, Patience,

Truthfulness, Wittiness, Friendliness, Modesty,

Righteous Indignation

Vice:

Rashness, Licentiousness, Prodigality, Vulgarity, Vanity,

Ambition, Irascibility, Boastfulness, Buffoonery,

Obsequiousness or flattery, Shyness, Envy

Source: Aristotle

“Do not do to others what you would

not want them to do to you.” –

Judaism

“Whatever you want people to do to

you, do also to them.” - Christianity

“One should not behave toward

others in way that is unpleasant for

oneself; that is the essence of

morality.” – Hinduism

“A state that is not pleasant or

enjoyable for me will also not be for

him; and how can I impose on another

a state that is not pleasant or

enjoyable for me?” – Buddhism

“None of you is a believer as long as

he does not wish his brother what he

wishes himself.” – Islam

“What you yourself do not want, do

not do to another person.” –

Confucianism

Source: Daniel Vallero, Socially

Responsible Engineering, 2007

Endless Respect


Principles of Graphical Excellence

Graphical excellence is:

• the well-designed presentation of

interesting data – a matter of substance,

of statistics, and of design.

• consists of complex ideas communicated

with clarity, precision, and efficiency.

• that which gives to the viewer the greatest

number of ideas in the shortest time with

the least ink in the smallest space.

• nearly always multivariate.

• requires telling the truth about the data.

www.edwardtufte.com


6 Principles of Graphical Integrity

1. The representation of numbers, as physically measured on the surface

of the graphic itself, should be directly proportional to the numerical

quantities represented.

2. Clear, detailed, and thorough labeling should be used to defeat graphical

distortion and ambiguity. Write out explanations of the data on the

graphic itself. Label important events in the data.

3. Show data variation, not design variation.

4. In time-series displays of money, deflated and standardized units of

monetary measurements are nearly always better than nominal units.

5. The number of information-carrying (variable) dimensions depicted

should not exceed the number of dimensions in the data.

6. Graphics must not quote data out of context.

Source: Tufte, The Visual Display of Quantitative Information


Essential Graphics When

Communicating to Decision Makers

• Pictures

• Geospatial Depictions

• Time Series Charts

• Tables

• Tornado Diagrams

• Guiding Graphics

Keep them simple and concise


Pictures and Thermography

Photos 2&3: The temperatures of gearbox are very high (200 degrees F on #6 and 193 degrees F on #2).

The temperature was far above the temperature of the other gearboxes. Oils tend to break down

quickly unless specifically designed to operating in extremely high temperature equipment.

Photo 1: Belt slippage and overheating


Tornado Diagram: Water Supply

Reservoir and WTP

There is not a “right” way or “wrong” way to communicate technical information.

Do what it takes to be truthful and effective.


Assessment of

Economic Development Project

Discounted Cumulative Cash Flow – Year 1 - 11

+$$

-$$

Increasing

Cumulative

Cash Flow

Breakeven Point

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Comparative Graphics can often be more efficiently understood by receiver


A Guiding Graphic Are Important

With Problems

Adaptive Management: “learn as you go”

So where are we? And where are we going?

Sender Must Reduce Noise


Burden is on the Sender

• Sender, Receiver, Message

• Burden is on the Sender

• Reduce Signal-to-Noise Ratio

• Endless Respect for your Audience

• Don’t theorize about mode of presentation production and need/IQ of audience

• Not about “right” or “wrong” in terms of types of presentations

• Graphics are not always needed


Forms of Communication

Sensory and Perceptual

Lay Public or General Population

Interpretive and Verbal

Attorneys and Policy Makers

Interpretive and Symbolic

Engineers, Scientists, Technologists

Source: Green, 1989; Myers & Kaposi, 2004; Vallero, 2007

Forms of Communication are one of four major sources of noise


Potential Sources of Noise

1. Forms of Communication

– Sensory and Perceptual

– Interpretive and Verbal

– Interpretive and Symbolic

2. Communication Forums

– Internal and External Team Meetings

– Public Speaking

– What the Media Wants

– What Elected Officials Want

3. Attempting to appeal too much to

sensory perceptions

– Colors as an example

4. Patterns of Communication

Group Effects


Personality Profiles

In workshops, we discuss four approaches and tools

1. DISC

2. Myers-Briggs

3. Handwriting Analysis

4. Neuro-Linguistic Programming (NLP)


Groups: Complex Decisions

Under Uncertainty

• There are compelling social reasons for group cooperation.

• Individuals also simply have too many information processing

biases and physical limitations to solve certain types of problems.

• We simply cannot avoid the reality that involving a cross-functional

group of experts is the best way to ensure quality decision making.

• Maybe less obviously, reinforcement through group involvement is

very important to most individual decision makers when coping with

uncertainty and complexity.

Source: Paul Shoemaker


Group Behavior: Loyalty

• The values and objectives that guide individual decision in organizations are largely the organizational values and objectives.

• It does not really matter whether these are expressed or implied.

• Initially, these are usually imposed by the exercise of authority on the individual.

• However, the values and objectives gradually become internalized and are incorporated into the psychology and attitudes of the individual participant.

• This conditioned loyalty becomes a hurdle for effective communications and decision making related to complex problems with uncertainty. – On one hand, it assures protection of the organization from outside forces.

– On the other hand, it is one reason why change is hard and good decisions related to complex problems are so difficult.

Source: Herbert Simon


Group Behavior: The Planning Fallacy

• Used to describe the plans, forecasts, and decisions made by groups that are unrealistically close to best-case scenarios

• Normally these could be improved by reviewing statistics of similar cases.

• The simple example in practice is despite the technical recommendations provided to the group, a project has a budget, schedule, and quality of deliverables that exceeds what has ever been delivered before.

• The group ignores the data and expert opinion and talks themselves into an overly optimistic and unachievable plan.

• The Planning Fallacy happens more often than not in all types of group settings.

• One solution is the “outside view”, but even then the group must listen.

Source: Kahneman


Group Behavior: Dialogue Decision Process

• Especially important for decisions with complexity and uncertainty

• Different than a traditional, and flawed, advocacy approach

• YOU may not be the best person to get the decision maker to the decision!

• No surprises! No Great Reveal!

Less is More


Talking Too Long

Presenting too much information that is not relevant to

decision maker

• Start with “abstract”

• Problem, who cares (relevance), what to do about it (action/solution)

• Know when it is time too leave; less is usually more

“John Thompson, hatter, makes and sells

hats for ready money”

Story told by Ben Franklin to Thomas Jefferson while

drafting the US Declaration of Independence


Handling Audience Questions

• Always repeat the question

• Watch your body language

• Break away from the questioner

• Stick with what you know

• Be brief

• Pass the buck when appropriate

• Stay on message

• Verify you answered the question

Empathy for Your Decision Maker


Empathy for Your Decision Maker

• Strategic decisions are characterized by high degrees of complexity and uncertainty

• Our decision makers believe that they are making the biggest decisions of their lives or careers

• It DOES NOT matter how simple, routine straightforward, or logical that the trusted advisor believes the decision is

• Success depends on finding empathy for the decision maker, and being able to communicate on those terms

It is about the decision maker. It is not about you.

Summary


Five Key Points

1. Communicating technical information is different than

communicating for marketing or political purposes

2. Have empathy for the decision maker

3. Have endless respect for the decision maker

4. Group effects are especially important for strategic

decisions with complexity and uncertainty

5. Less is more – its about the decision maker, not you


For More Information

• Webinars and Workshops:

1-hour, and 4- and 8-hour workshops

• Amazon.com:

Print or Kindle version of book

• Website: www.reliabilityriskresiliency.com

• Email

[email protected]

[email protected]

APWA NC

Leadership and Management Conference

August 3, 2018

J.D. Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP [email protected]

Communicating Reliability, Risk, and Resiliency

to Decision Makers

communicating reliability, risk, and resiliency to...

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