commodity research report 24 august 2015 ways2capital

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✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS

DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 31 AUG 2015 106 105 103 102 101 100 99 98 96

COPPER 31 AUG 2015 359 351 343 340 335 332 327 319 311

CRUDE OIL 19 AUG 2015 2964 2877 2790 2737 2703 2650 2616 2529 2442

GOLD 05 OCT 2015 28577

28098 27619 27429 27140 26950 26661 26182 25703

LEAD 31 AUG 2015 120 117 115 114 112 111 109 106 103

NATURAL GAS 25 SEP 2015 196 191 186 183 181 178 177 172 167

NICKEL 31 AUG 2015 738 716 694 684 672 662 650 628 606

SILVER 04 SEP 2015 39534

38430 37326 36763 36222 35659 35118 34014 32910

ZINC 31 AUG 2015 127 124 121 119 117 115 114 110 107

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 31 AUG 2015 108 106 103 102 101 100 99 96 94

COPPER 31 AUG 2015 369 357 345 340 333 328 321 309 297

CRUDE OIL 19 AUG 2015 3308 3125 2942 2848 2759 2665 2576 2393 2210

GOLD 05 OCT 2015 29583 28564 27545 27197 26526 26178 25507 24488 23469

LEAD 31 AUG 2015 127 122 117 114 111 109 106 101 96

NATURAL GAS 25 SEP 2015 204 197 190 187 183 180 176 169 162

NICKEL 31 AUG 2015 756 732 708 693 684 669 660 636 612

SILVER 04 SEP 2015 41294 39447 37600 36954 35753 35108 33906 32059 30212

ZINC 31 AUG 2015 132 127 123 120 118 116 113 108 103

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS

DAILY EXPIRYDATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 20 OCT 2015 584 580 576 573 572 569 568 564 560

SYBEANIDR 20 OCT 2015 3272 3225 3178 3151 3131 3104 3084 3037 2990

RMSEED 18 SEP 2015 4422 4375 4328 4306 4281 4259 4234 4187 4140

JEERAUNJHA 18 SEP 2015 18151 17541 16931 16563 16321 15953 15711 15101 14491

CHANA 18 SEP 2015 4882 4813 1744 4701 4675 4632 4606 4537 4468

CASTORSEED 18 SEP 2015 4264 4205 4146 4109 4087 4050 4028 3969 3910

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY EXPIRYDATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 20 OCT 2015 606 594 582 577 570 565 558 546 534

SYBEANIDR 20 OCT 2015 3407 3316 3225 3175 3134 3084 3043 2952 2861

RMSEED 18 SEP 2015 4619 4490 4361 4305 4232 4176 4103 3974 3845

JEERAUNJHA 18 SEP 2015 19638 18448 17258 16786 16068 15596 14898 13688 12498

CHANA 18 SEP 2015 5321 5108 4895 4794 4682 4581 4469 4256 4043

CASTORSEED 18 SEP 2015 4410 4313 4216 4155 4119 4058 4022 3925 3828

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

Gold falls by 0.2% on global cues✍

Gold prices fell by Rs 50 to Rs 25,958 per 10 grams in futures trade on Wednesday amid a weak global trend.

At Multi Commodity Exchange, gold for October contacts fell by Rs 50, or 0.19%, to Rs 25,958 per 10 grams in a business turnover of 354 lots.

On similar lines, the precious metal for delivery in December was trading down by Rs 43, or 0.16%, to Rs 26,171 per 10 grams in 32 lots.

Fall in gold futures to a weak global trend as investors await the release of Federal Reserve minutes which may give further clues on the timing of an interest rate increase.

Globally, gold was little changed at $1,117.71 an ounce in Singapore today.

Zinc falls by 0.2% on global cues✍

Zinc futures traded 0.21% lower at Rs 119.15 per kg on mondaty as speculators trimmedpositions, tracking a weak global trend.

Zinc for delivery in August declined by 25 paise, or 0.21%, to Rs 119.15 per kg at the MultiCommodity Exchange. It clocked business turnover of 417 lots.

Likewise, the metal for delivery in the September contracts softened by 15 paise, or 0.12%, toRs 120 per kg in 12 lots.

Weakness in zinc at futures trade was mostly attributed to a weak trend in copper and otherbase metals in the global markets as investors await US manufacturing, inflation and housingdata this week that may give more clues on the timing of a Federal Reserve rate rise.

Base metals hit multi year low on Chinese demand concerns✍

Base metals hit multi-year lows on the London Metal Exchange (LME) due to heightening riskof a demand slowdown from China, the world’s largest producer and consumer. The recentdevaluation of the Chinese yuan will make base metals’ costlier and poses a risk to theirimports into China.

Copper slipped below the psychological barrier of $5,000 a tonne before recovering to settle at$5,007 on Wednesday. The metal had touched this level last in July 2009 following the crash infinancial markets after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Metals are falling in anticipation of falling consumption and swelling supply as globalproducers have not announced any major output cuts despite incurring losses at prevailingprices. Oversupply of most base metals is likely, resulting in a further fall in prices.

China is the primary factor contributing to base metals fall. The last stimulus by the Chinesegovernment pulled back markets. Then the devaluation followed. More than China’sweakening economy, the devaluation of the yuan pressured metals.Following copper, aluminium prices also fell to $1,522, their lowest level since June 2009.Aluminium has declined 17 per cent this year. Zinc and nickel also settled at $1,776 a tonneand $10,330 a tonne on the LME, their lowest levels since August 2012 and April 2009,respectively. While copper reported a 21 per cent decline, zinc and nickel have plunged 18 percent and 31 per cent, respectively, in 2015.

Growing risk that copper prices would fall further because of a Chinese hard landing. Itsbaseline scenario was for China’s growth to slow to 6.8 per cent and copper consumption toease to 4 per cent

Copper up on positive global cues✍

Copper futures on Thursday rose by 50 paise to Rs 328.85 per kg on the back of pick up in spotdemand and positive cues from overseas markets.

At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in August was trading higher 50 paiseto Rs 328.85 per kg with a turnover of 1,402 lots.

Similarly, the metal for delivery in far-month November was up 45 paise to Rs 335.05 per kgwith a trade volume of 20 lots.

Globally, copper for three-month delivery added as much as 0.5% to $5,018 a tonne on theLondon Metal Exchange (LME).

Analysts attributed the rise in copper at futures trade to a firming trend on the LME where itsnapped a five-day decline as weaker-than-expected inflation figures from the US trimmed betson a September interest rate increase and the dollar weakened.

Besides, pick-up in spot demand at domestic markets supported the upside, they said.

Lead falls by 0.4% on weak global cues✍

Lead fell 0.45% to Rs 109.75 per kg in futures trade on Wednesday after participants reducedexposure amid a weak trend overseas and sluggish domestic demand.

At Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in current month contract was trading 50paise, or 0.45%, down at Rs 109.75 per kg in a business turnover of 949 lots.

Metal for delivery in September fell by a similar margin to trade at Rs 110.85 per kg in 42 lots.

Besides weak demand from battery-makers in the domestic spot market, weakness in basemetals at the London Metal Exchange on concern that demand may falter in China as an equityrout resumed weighed on lead futures here.

Oil rebounds from 6-yr low✍

Crude oil rebounded from the lowest level in more than six years, as investors cut bets for a USinterest-rate increase in September, sending the dollar lower.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose as much as 1.3 per cent, as the falling US currencyincreased the appeal of commodities as a store of value. Slower global economic growth mightcause the US Federal Reserve to delay a move, as the minutes released on Wednesday showedofficials were concerned about low inflation. Oil has traded in a bear market since July on signsthe oversupply will be prolonged and as concern grows that emerging economies will weaken.US crude supplies are almost 100 million barrels above the five-year seasonal average, whilesome leading members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are maintainingnear-record production.

WTI for September delivery, which expires on Thursday, rose 23 cents, or 0.6 percent, to nearly$41 a barrel at 11:59 am on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It earlier fell to $40.21, thelowest since March 2009. The volume of all futures traded was 25 per cent above the 100-dayaverage. The more-active October contract increased 21 cents to $41.5. Brent for Octobersettlement declined nine cents to nearly $47 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europeexchange. It reached $46.3, the lowest level since January 14.

The European benchmark crude traded at a $5.59 premium to the October WTI contract.

WTI dropped 4.3 percent Wednesday after U.S. crude supplies expanded by 2.62 millionbarrels last week, the most since April, according to Energy Information Administration data.Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI futures and the biggest U.S.oil-storage hub, rose by 326,000 barrels to 57.4 million through Aug. 14,

A disruption at BP Plc's Whiting plant in Indiana meant about 1.5 million barrels of oil didn'tget consumed last week. Inventories at Cushing may expand further as refiners performseasonal maintenance.

✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

Progressive monsoon to push jeera sowing✍

A normal progressive monsoon has increased the possibility of better sowing and higherproduction of jeera (cumin) for the next season of 2015-16. Good availability of water mightincrease sowing area in the next season, thereby pushing up jeera production if all goes wellduring growing period.

Sowing of jeera takes place during October-November, while harvest starts from March. Sincejeera, which is sowed mostly in Gujarat and Rajasthan, is a rabi crop, monsoon plays a crucialrole in the crop’s overall success. South-west monsoon has been near-normal so far withsowing of most of the kharif crops being higher than last year. “Farmers have received goodprices for jeera and this may encourage them to sow more in the upcoming sowing season.Moreover, good rains have enhanced irrigation scenario which may further improve jeeraacreage on an average by 20 per cent as against last year.

Ample showers received in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the main jeera growing area, during Juneand July, might ensure good sowing of jeera. Moreover, normal rains during August andSeptember, too, will influence sowing progress of jeera in non-irrigated fields.

“In the current scenario, a better picture of monsoon has emerged and we expect jeeraproduction to be around 400,000 tonnes for 2015-16.According to Gujarat government data, till recently, jeera sowing acreage had declined 42 percent to 264,000 hectares against 454,000 hectares last year. Similarly, in Rajasthan, the areadeclined by 10-15 per cent during this rabi season.

According to Angel Commodity report, uptrend in jeera prices in domestic market has beenobserved since November 2014 on account of lower and delayed sowing due to poor monsoonand lower price realisation by the farmers last year. In the current year, on expectation of loweroutput and export demand, spot and futures prices had touched all time high of Rs 18,538 aquintal and Rs 18,700 a quintal, respectively, in May.

After attaining highest levels, prices have been in downward trend now. Jeera prices havecorrected by 14.4 per cent to Rs 15,862 a quintal in spot and by 21.6 per cent to Rs 14,660 aquintal in futures. Despite the fall, jeera prices have ruled at 39 per cent and 30 per cent levelshigher in spot and futures markets, respectively, than what they were at the start of the jeerasowing season in November last year, the Angel Commodity report stated.

According to the Spices Board, India exported 155,500 tonnes of jeera in 2014-15, 28 per centhigher than last year's exports of 121,500 tonnes. India mainly exports jeera to Vietnam, theUS, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Nepal, Spain, Brazil and the UK. Jeera is the second largestspice exported from the country after chilli.

Chana up 1% as spot demand picks up✍

Chana rose further 1.04 per cent to Rs 4,779 per quintal in futures trade on wednesday astraders widened their holdings, triggered by rising demand at the spot markets.

Moreover, restricted supplies from producing belts coupled with lower estimated output toosupported the uptrend.

At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chana for August delivery rose by Rs49, or 1.04 per cent, to Rs 4,779 per quintal, with an open interest of 3,750 lots.

Similarly, chana for delivery in September was higher by Rs 42, or 0.89 per cent, to Rs 4,769per quintal, with an open interest of 1,58,120 lots.

Rising demand at domestic spot markets mainly supported the upside in chana futures here.

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