An inconvenient truth! The Hell Niño in South Africa

Coleen VogelGlobal Change and Sustainability Research Institute

University of the Witwatersrand

Projected change in annual average temperature (°C) under a high climate change scenario, for the time period 2021–2050 (top) and 2071-2100 (bottom) relative to 1961–1990. The median of an ‘ensemble’ of six climate model projections are shown in each case. Source: Francois Engelbrecht, CSIR

Projected change in total annual rainfall (mm), under a high climate change (i.e., low mitigation) scenario, for the time period 2021–2050 (top) and 2071-2100 (bottom) relative to 1961–1990. The maps show the median of an ensemble of six climate models. Source: Francois Engelbrecht, CSIR

© CSIR 2007 www.csir.co.za

Annual change in extreme rainfall events over southern Africa (2070-2100 vs 1975-2005)

• Units: change in the annual number of events per grid box

• Extreme rainfall events are projected to increase over most of southern Africa

• More intense thunderstorms projected to occur over eastern SA

Engelbrecht et al. (2010)

Science – society interactions: The case of South Africa

• Long and extensive science on climate change and climate variability

• Strong policy focus (dating back to early 1900s)

• Interesting ‘policy context’ (in early 1990s) that had the potential to fundamentally shift ‘science imaginaries’ on drought.

Major climate / policy efforts in South Africa (after: Vogel, Colvin and Scharfetter, 2014)

Science – society interactionsNational Consultative Forum on Drought• Severe and extreme ENSO in region early 1990s• ‘Perfect storm’ – co-occurring political change and

climate stress• CODESA (Convention for a Democratic South

Africa) national-level process influenced by strong activists shaping the Drought Forum

• Evolution:• Drought forum – rural development forum –

reconstruction and development action.

Examples of various documentary records of the Drought Forum(Source: Various)

Fast forward to 2014-2016

1. Knowledge about climate change science and climate variability strong (e.g. science knowledge).

2. Generation and use of such knowledge - the roles of scientists, policy makers, practitioners, civic society and ‘brokers’ in research, adaptation and planning still located in silos of action

3. “Linear model” – business as usual (see Appendix 1 of paper).

Example of current response(extract from SAWS/ACCESS response, Nov.

2015).

Policy & decision-making

Climate Change

research

Policy & decision-making

Climate Change

research

Policy & decision-making

Climate Change

research ?After Bradshaw and Borchers, 2000

Transdisciplinary Co-design & Co-production Model

(After: Future Earth and Cornell et al., 2013)

Messy reality needing variety of engagement processes (courtesy J. Colvin)

Multiple stakeholders, actors and stake/actor holdings

Controversy of knowledge claims

Complexity of ecological – societal

relationshipsUncertainty about current

state and predictions

Recognising the ‘messiness’ and complexity of situations:

“The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes, but in having new eyes” Marcel Proust

Acknowledgements

• Various inputs e.g. IPCC scientists• Various inputs local scientists, activists and

government actors from the past and present!• Thanks to Scholes et al and various others for

graphics and figures.