climdev-africa dinner dialogue science for development: can africa sustain its transformational...
TRANSCRIPT
ClimDev-Africa Dinner Dialogue
Science for development: Can Africa Sustain its Transformational
Development Without Investing in Climate Science?
Outline
Climate Science– Situation– Objectives & experience of pilot projects of ClimDev-
Africa/ACPC– Advancing knowledge and research priorities for users
The Dinner Dialogue Questions
Discussions
Climate Impacts
Loss in production, infrastructure, and increased poverty
Impact of rainfall variability on GDP and Agricultural GDP growth
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
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86
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89
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90
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92
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95
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96
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97
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99
20
00
year
%
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
rainfall variability
GDP growth
Ag GDP growth
MADAGASCAR:
In Feb 2012 Cyclone Giovanna killed 10 people
MOZAMBIQUE Flood 40 people died, 150,000 people fled in Chokwe town, and surroundings (Jan 2013)
SOUTH AFRICA: 6 died when the Limpopo river burst its banks (Jan 2013)
Climate Science Situation• Meteorological & hydrological data are basis for knowledge,
decision making & actions • Application fields include DRR, water management,
agriculture, aviation, transport, risk management, etc
DataObservations, climate models, time series, trends, projections, event frequency, ….
InformationMeasures of vulnerability and risk, impacts, uncertainty and confidence, variations, …
KnowledgeUnderstanding consequences, evaluating responses, informing decision making, …
DecisionStrategic, policy, investment, new research avenues, response frameworks, …
Delivery of science Societal and developmental needs
Focus
• There are about 1152 meteorological stations in Africa (GTS)
• It is 8 times lower than WMO recommendations
• Most of the stations are confined along the roads, cities or airports
• Satellite information is widely used for weather and climate monitoring activities
Climate Science- Data SituationAfrican climate stations network
Air quality or greenhouse gases monitoring stations in Africa
Air quality monitoring
Not responded (18)No air quality stations (27)Have air quality stations (10)
Climate Science- Prediction Situation
Predictions and related data and information– Most of the prediction
information comes from the developed country prediction center (ECMWF, NCEP,..)
– Satellite information is quite useful in real time data monitoring and early warning activities
• Modeling in Africa is at infant stage– Lack of trained man power– Lack of computing facilities
Climate Research Gaps in Africa-SituationKnowledge Gap in Climate
Science
– Scientific research is very weak at all levels (NMHS, RCC, Universities)
– Chronic lack of investment in postgraduate education and research infrastructure
– Less priority is given to climate issues relative to other pressing problems The comparison of African Authors with
others (data from Washington et al)
• Poor network of first class met stations• Existing synoptic stations should be fully
operational• Absence of upper-air stations• Water flow measurement technology is not up-
to-date including collection and recording• Current data transmission is by mail. There is a
need to automate the using real time data collection platform such as SMS, GMS, and GPRS needed.
• Database servers have capacity limitation. Should be maintained by qualified information technology personnel.
ACPC Pilot Projects- Needs AssessmentEthiopia, Rwanda and The Gambia
3. Project Interventions• Rescue meteorological data
• Procure and establish upper air observing station, automatic weather stations, barometers, water level recorders with telemetry, facilities, etc
• Establish early warning system for selected River basin and enhance flood forecasting capacity at the Ministries
• Provide training on hydro-meteorological instrumentation, data base management and information communication
• Establish information systems to provide real time climate and river flow information to decision makers and a database management system
• Establish a map room to provide information on the water resources for the general public and a wide area network (WAN) between central and regional offices
Other Examples of Science to Use Addressing the Climate Vulnerability of African
Infrastructure• Estimate the impacts of CC on the
performance of infrastructure• Develop and test a framework for the
planning and design of infrastructure investment that can be “robust” under a wide range of climate outcomes;
• Enhance “investment readiness” of African countries to use climate finance resources geared at increasing their resilience to climate variability and change
• Irrigation, HP, Power Pools, Urban Water & Roads
West Africa TB Aquifers Dialogue• Analysis on scientific and technical
knowledge• major environmental, social and economic
challenges for GW: CC, WS, Irrigation• Institutional, legal and political framework
for the basins• A dialogue on national and transboundary
priorities • Building and strengthening of capacities
Nile
Congo
Zambezi
Niger
Orange
Volta
Senegal
Africa Climate Conference - ACC 2013• Process: Mapping African climate researchers and
institutions, established scientific steering committee• 300+ of world’s best Africa climate researchers facing users• Task: Identify priorities to advance frontiers of African
climate research to address urgent societal needs, based on:• State of knowledge• Current Gaps• Concrete Proposals to overcome knowledge gaps and
deliver operational climate services• Over 700 abstracts received on call for papers
Africa-wide ACC2013 Steering Committee
Africa Climate Research For Development Agenda
3. Scientific and Institutional
Capacity Development
Scientific Steering Committee
1. Co-designed multi-disciplinary climate
research
2. Improved Observation System and
Delivery
4. Mainstreaming Cimate Services
and User Intreface Platform
Coordination Platform
Understanding underpinning drivers of climate variability in
Africa
Towards Robust Climate change projections over Africa
Integrated climate and impacts research (across four priority
GFCS sectors- DRR sector, health, water and agriculture)
Africa Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project
Multi-disciplinary validation of forecast skill (including impacts
skill)
1. Co-designed multi-disciplinary research for improving climate forecast skill and reliability, across temporal and spatial scales(towards operational user-relevant seamless forecast products)
Proposed pan-African Research Programs to address User-Driven Priorities for Climate Research in
Africa
3. Scientific and Institutional
Capacity Development
2. Improved Observation System
and Delivery
4. Mainstreaming Cimate Services
and User Intreface Platform
Building African Capacity in Climate Science & Communication for Linking Climate Knowledge with Action
Nurturing African intellectual leadership in Climate Research for Development
African research nodes of excellence
Mainstreaming training curricula for a changing climate
From Global to Local: Linkages across prediction centers for delivery of operational climate services
Filling the Data Gap- Multidisciplinary data sets(for both climate and sector-specific vulnerability datasets) Integrated Africa Climate Data Information Systems
Future Risk Profiles for Major African Cities
Framework for Co-producing Climate Services and Integrating Knowledge for Action Building the Interface: Multi-Stakeholder Platforms for Dialogue
Co-producing climate knowledge with local stakeholders – the End of End-users Supporting Adaptation under deep uncertainty- adaptation scenarios addressing envelope of uncertainty, across timescales
Proposed pan-African Research Programs to Address User-Driven Priorities for Climate Research in Africa
The Dialogue Questions
1. How do we strengthen the capacities of the National Hydrological and Meteorological Services to enhance delivery of climate services? – Delivery and utility of data and information for researchers, policy makers, farmers, and
others
2. How can we influence the discourse on climate change finance in order to leverage resources for climate science, data and information needs?– Sources of finance, access, and investment for climate science
3. How do we enhance partnerships across institutions in integrating climate services for development as part of their long term strategy?
– Institutional collaboration in data generation, planning and end use
4. What role can ClimDev-Africa play in popularizing the climate science narrative in Africa? – Key recommendations for ClimDev-Africa to enhance climate science delivery