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<ul><li><p>Climate change,natural disasters anddisplacement: amulti-track approachto filling theprotection gapsVikram Kolmannskog and Lisetta TrebbiVikram Kolmannskog holds degrees in law (LL.M. from the</p><p>University of Oslo and LL.M. in human rights with distinction from the</p><p>London School of Economics and Political Science) and the humanities</p><p>(B.A. and Cand.mag. in history of ideas and Spanish from the University of Oslo).</p><p>He was previously the Norwegian Refugee Councils legal adviser on</p><p>climate change and displacement and is currently an independent scholar</p><p>and consultant. LisettaTrebbi holds a masters degree in human geography</p><p>from the University of Oslo, with specialization in development geography,</p><p>and she worked for ten years in the field of humanitarian preparedness-and-</p><p>response operations. She is climate-change adviser to the Norwegian</p><p>Refugee Council.</p><p>AbstractMillions are displaced by climate-related disasters each year, and this trend is set toincrease as climate change accelerates. It raises important questions about how wellexisting instruments actually protect people driven from their homes by climate changeand natural disasters. This article first examines current protection instrumentsand points out gaps in them. There follows an exploration of various proposals forfilling those protection gaps, with the focus on cross-border natural-disaster-induceddisplacement. A multi-track approach is recommended, including context-orientedand dynamic interpretation of existing law, and creation of new law. Adhering to theprinciple of non-refoulement, and focusing on whether return is possible, permissible,</p><p>Volume 92 Number 879 September 2010</p><p>doi:10.1017/S1816383110000500 713</p></li><li><p>or reasonable, could be a realistic way to begin developing protection regimes forvictims of natural-disaster-induced displacement.</p><p>In its fourth assessment report, published in 2007, the Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change (IPCC) established that human-induced climate change isaccelerating and is already having a severe impact, including an increase in certainnatural hazards.1 Furthermore, a study by the United Nations Office for theCoordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and the Internal DisplacementMonitoring Centre of the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) indicates thatmillions are already being displaced by climate-related natural disasters each year.2</p><p>This development raises important questions about how well existing law,as well as national, regional, and international regimes, protects people displacedby climate-related disasters in particular and natural disasters in general. In thisarticle, we identify the gaps in these protection regimes and discuss a range ofoptions for filling them. We conclude that a multi-track approach to exploringthose options and in particular to building on the concept of return may prove themost effective solution.</p><p>While recognizing that a continuum exists between voluntary andforced migration and that much of the human mobility in the context of climatechange may be considered voluntary (or at least in a grey zone between voluntaryand forced), we choose to focus on displacement and forced migration. Allmigrants have certain protection needs, but forced migrants have been considereda category apart in international law and in practical humanitarian work.3</p><p>Nonetheless, the continuum between voluntary and forced raises challenges such ashow to determine when a migrants leaving his or her home must be considered aforced action.</p><p>A focus on climate-change-related displacement can be justified in orderto establish climate change as a major cause of displacement, to identify thebroader responsibility for displacement, to mitigate its effects, and to fund thework needed for this mitigation. From a perspective of practical security andhuman rights, however, there is normally no compelling reason to distinguishbetween climate-related and other natural disasters. We have therefore shifted</p><p>1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: The Synthesis Report, p. 30, availableat: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm (last visited 20 September 2010).</p><p>2 Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and the Internal DisplacementMonitoring Centre (IDMC)/Norwegian Refugee Council, Monitoring Disaster Displacement in theContext of Climate Change, Geneva, 2009, p. 15.</p><p>3 See, for example, the definition of an internally displaced person as someone forced or obliged to flee orto leave their homes or places of habitual residence, in Report of the Representative of the Secretary-General, Mr. Francis M. Deng, submitted pursuant to Commission resolution 1997/39, Addendum: GuidingPrinciples on Internal Displacement, 11 February 1998, UN Doc. E/CN.4/1998/53/Add.2 (hereafter 1998UN Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement), Introduction: Scope and Purpose, para. 2.</p><p>714</p><p>V. Kolmannskog and L. Trebbi Climate change, natural disasters, and displacement: a multi-trackapproach to filling the protection gaps</p></li><li><p>between discussing climate change in particular and natural disasters morebroadly.</p><p>Linking climate change and displacement</p><p>There are major methodological challenges involved in establishing the linkbetween climate change and displacement. People leave their homes for a complexset of reasons,4 and there is multi-causality even in forced migration. Nevertheless,while examining some of the current and predicted effects of climate change, anumber of researchers and international institutions have arrived at the conclusionthat climate change will probably contribute to major forced displacements overtime.5</p><p>One major impact of climate change is the increased frequency and severityof certain hazards, as well as changes in their time-frame and location.6 Hazards cancombine with human vulnerability to produce disasters, such as floods anddroughts. In other words, there is a crucial human element involved in the occur-rence of natural disasters. We can call them climate-related disasters since climatechange can influence their frequency, severity, time, and location; storms, floods,and droughts all belong to this category. All natural disasters can potentially resultin forced displacement. The number of recorded natural disasters has doubled fromapproximately 200 to over 400 per year over the past two decades.7 The majority areclimate-related disasters. According to the UN Emergency Relief Coordinator, thissituation of more frequent and severe disasters may be the new normal.8</p><p>Although there is broad acceptance that voluntary and forced migration islikely to increase as a consequence of climate change, it is difficult to estimate thescale. In 2009, OCHA worked with the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centreof the NRC in a first attempt to assess the degree of displacement due to sudden-onset natural disasters. They found that as many as thirty-six million people hadbeen displaced by such disasters in 2008, over twenty million by climate-relatedsudden-onset disasters alone.9 Estimating displacement due to slow-onset disasterssuch as drought and sea-level rise is much more challenging because it has a more</p><p>4 The concept of environmental refugees or climate refugees has been criticized by migration academics.This is mainly because climate change, migration, and displacement are not phenomena with only onecause. Moreover, the refugee concept has a restricted definition, focusing on persecution as the maingrounds for fleeing, and is limited to individuals who have crossed an internationally recognized border.The limited nature of the refugee concept in itself makes the term climate refugee somewhat unsuitable.</p><p>5 David Hodgkinson, Tess Burton, Heather Anderson, and Lucy Young, Copenhagen, climate changerefugees and the need for a global agreement, in Public Policy, Vol. 4, No. 2, 2009, p. 159.</p><p>6 IPCC, above note 1, p. 30.7 See Emergency Event Database, available at: http://www.emdat.be/natural-disasters-trends (last visited</p><p>20 September 2010).8 OCHA, Opening remarks by Sir John Holmes, Under-Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs and</p><p>Emergency Relief Coordinator at the DIHAD 2008 Conference, 8 April 2008, available at: http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900sid/YSAR-7DHL88?OpenDocument (last visited 20 September 2010).</p><p>9 OCHA and IDMC/NRC, above note 2, p. 15.</p><p>715</p><p>Volume 92 Number 879 September 2010</p></li><li><p>complex set of causes and because there is a continuum between voluntary andforced migration.10 Nevertheless, the numbers quoted above give an indication ofthe scale of displacement caused by climate-related disasters today. While offeringits own estimate, the Stern Review points out that the number of displaced peoplewill depend on the level of investment, planning and resources.11</p><p>In the near future at least, displacement is likely to go on being mostlyinternal, and in some cases regional.12 All countries will eventually be affected byclimate change, but some are more immediately and directly exposed than others.In its report, the IPCC highlights dangers associated with the Arctic, Africa, smallislands, and the Asian and African mega-deltas, while recognizing that withinother areas, even those with high incomes, some people (such as the poor, youngchildren and the elderly) can be particularly at risk, and also some areas and someactivities.13 Much sudden-onset, natural-disaster-induced displacement is tem-porary if there is effective rehabilitation and recovery, but some displacementbecomes permanent.14</p><p>This research on climate change, disasters, and displacement raises centralquestions about the need to protect displaced individuals and entire populations.The protection needs of people displaced by natural disasters have not yet beenfully explored and understood. However, one of the main ideas behind the 1998UN Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement was that, regardless of the reasonfor displacement, the people concerned often have a particular set of needs.15 Whilerecognizing that much work is needed to identify protection needs, we thereforefeel justified in examining more generally the current protection regime, identi-fying gaps and looking at possible solutions for filling those gaps in the context ofclimate change.</p><p>Gaps in protection for people displaced in connection withclimate change and natural disasters</p><p>Typology of climate-change effects, displacement, and protection</p><p>Setting out the various types of climate change, the main effects, and the dis-placement that results from them is a useful starting point for an overview ofpossible protection regimes, as well as the gaps associated with climate change and</p><p>10 When is the land so degraded that we consider the small-scale farmer to have been forced to leave it and not merely to have chosen to leave it for a better life elsewhere? Is the degradation mainly due toclimate factors or to land use, poor irrigation, economics, and governance?</p><p>11 UK Treasury, Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,2005, p. 112.</p><p>12 See, for example, Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC), Climate Change, Migration andDisplacement: Who will be affected?, Working paper submitted by the informal group on Migration/Displacement and Climate Change of the IASC, 31 October 2008, p. 1.</p><p>13 IPCC, above note 1, p. 52.14 See, for example, IASC, above note 12, p. 1.15 See 1998 UN Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement, above note 3.</p><p>716</p><p>V. Kolmannskog and L. Trebbi Climate change, natural disasters, and displacement: a multi-trackapproach to filling the protection gaps</p></li><li><p>natural disaster.16 The situations described may have more than one cause, andthere are situations in which several of these scenarios may overlap.</p><p>Scenario 1: Climate change increases the frequency and/or severity ofsudden-onset natural disasters and perhaps their time-frame andlocation</p><p>In this scenario, it is assumed that displacement will mostly be internal and tem-porary, depending on the effectiveness of humanitarian response and the speed ofrecovery. The 1998 UN Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement (a soft-lawinstrument) should therefore be examined to see whether they offer protection.Since the Guidance Principles recognize disaster-induced displacement, protectionand assistance should be provided in accordance with these principles.17</p><p>The situation differs for those who cross a border. Article 1A of the 1951Convention relating to the Status of Refugees, as modified by the 1967 Protocol,does not clearly apply to people driven from their homes by natural disasters, sincerefugee status is linked to a well-founded fear of persecution for certain specificreasons. However, contextual and dynamic interpretations explored later in thisarticle show that some of those who are displaced across borders could qualify forrefugee status and protection.</p><p>Scenario 2: Climate change increases the frequency and/or severity ofslow-onset natural disasters and perhaps changes their time-frame andlocation</p><p>In this scenario, part of the population may decide to migrate to other parts of thesame country. Some may also migrate abroad. Later, conditions may deteriorate toa point where it becomes impossible for people to remain in their homes and theyare actually displaced.</p><p>The 1998 UN Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement could be ap-plied in some cases where it is established that a drought or similar event hasdisplaced people. However, it has been argued that the Guidance Principles werenever meant to meet, and cannot really meet, the particular needs of people dis-placed by slow-onset disasters such as droughts.18 Furthermore, it is difficult to</p><p>16 The typology is based on that presented in IASC, above note 12, pp. 23; and Vikram Kolmannskog, Thepoint of no return: exploring law on cross-border displacement in the context of climate change, inRefugee Watch, Vol. 34, December 2009, pp. 2742.</p><p>17 See 1998 UN Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement, above note 3, Principle 2.18 One case study indicated that the protection challenges are more similar to those faced by migrants than</p><p>displaced persons. For example, drought is often characterized by family separation, with the male headof the household leaving in search of work, while in conflicts and sudden-onset disasters, entire familiesare often forced to move. A senior staff member of an international humanitarian agency has suggestedthat the term distress migration is more appropriate than displacement. Perhaps the tipping point iswhen the entire family leaves, i.e. when there is no longer any possibility of survival at home. Then wecan speak of forced displacement. See Vikram Kolmannskog, Climate Change, Disaster, Displacement and</p><p>717</p><p>Volume 92 Number 879 September 2010</p></li><li><p>establish the link between drought and displacement, as the movement is likely to beslow and in phases; it may be seen as voluntary, and the decision to finally leave theplace of origin will b...</p></li></ul>

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