Climate Change: Implications for Fisheries and Aquaculture

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The Fifth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the most comprehensive and relevant analysis of our changing climate. It provides the scientific fact base that will be used around the world to formulate climate policies in the coming years. This document is one of a series synthesizing the most pertinent findings of AR5 for specific economic and business sectors. It was born of the belief that the fisheries and aquaculture sector could make more use of AR5, which is long and highly technical, if it were distilled into an accurate, accessible, timely, relevant and readable summary. Although the information presented here is a translation of the key content relevant to this sector from AR5, this summary report adheres to the rigorous scientific basis of the original source material. Grateful thanks are extended to all reviewers from both the science and business communities for their time, effort and invaluable feedback on this document. The basis for information presented in this overview report can be found in the fully-referenced and peer-reviewed IPCC technical and scientific background reports at: www.ipcc.ch

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<ul><li> 1. climateeveryonesbusinessClimateChange:Implica0onsforFisheries&amp;AquacultureKeyFindingsfromtheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeFi7hAssessmentReportMay2014</li></ul> <p> 2. climateeveryonesbusinessClimateChange:Physical&amp;ChemicalOceanChangesGreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsatcurrentratesareprojectedtoraiseglobalaveragesurfacetemperatureby2.64.8oCby2100.Climatechangeisalteringtheoceanecosystemsinprofoundways,withimpactsonmarineorganisms,biodiversity,fisheriesandaquaculture,coastalzonesandhumankind.Physicalandchemicalchangesintheoceanwillleadtoalossofmarinebiodiversity.Marinelifewillbedirectlyimpactedby:RisingwatertemperaturesRisinglevelsofcarbondioxide(CO2)Hypoxia(inadequateoxygen)Asseawaterabsorbsmorecarbondioxide,itbecomesmoreacidic.Warmerseawaterholdslessoxygen. 3. climateeveryonesbusinessClimateChange:RisingSeaLevels&amp;OceanAcidifica0onSealevelriskstolow-lyingcoastalregionsinclude: SaltandfreshwaterpondandlagoonzonesvulnerabletoinundaRon Sealevels0.450.82metreshigherthanpresent IncreasedseverityoftropicalstormsandoceansurgesOceanacidifica0onimpacts: ReducRonofanimalsabilitytoproduceshellsandskeletons,andinterferencewithfishnavigaRon Mussel,oysterandshellfishgrowthaffectedbyshell-thinningandincreasedmortality CoralreefdamagewillaffectfisheryproducRonintropicalregions 4. climateClimateChange:ImpactsonWildFisheveryonesbusiness Climatewillimpactfishmigra0on,breeding,spawningandfeeding FishRedistribu0on:FishpopulaRonsareshi7ingawayfromtropicallaRtudes,andtherewillbehighlocalexRncRonratesinthetropicsandsemi-enclosedseas. FishSize:Largefishwillhaveasmallermaximumbodysizeduetoreducedoxygencapacityofseawater. MoreDeadZones:AreasdepletedofoxygenwillbecomemorecommonduetostraRficaRonfromwarmingwater.paZerns.Notallfishwillbeabletoadapt,andsomestockswillpoten0allydieout.ClimatechangeandoceanacidificaRonwillbeexacerbatedbyotherstressors:OverfishingHabitatlossPolluRon 5. climateClimateChange:ImpactsonOceanEcosystemseveryonesbusiness Changesarealreadyaffec0ngthedistribu0onandabundanceofmarineorganismsintheoceans.ClimatewillimpactfisheriesandaquacultureproducRonfordecadestocenturies,accelera0ngaZer2050. Effectsonallmarineanimalsfrommicroscopicphytoplanktontolargepredatoryfishlikemarlinscouldseriouslydisruptfoodwebs. Rapidlyerodingreefhabitatsthreatencollapseforsomecoastalfisheriesandfishnurseries.Morethanhalftheworldscoralreefsareatmedium-orhigh-risk. Harmfulalgalbloomscouldcausemassdie-offsofwildandfarmedfish. 6. climateClimateChange:ImpactsonAquaculture(1/2)everyonesbusiness Threebillionpeoplerelyonfishfor~20%oftheiranimalprotein.400millionpeopledependcriRcallyonfishforfood.Demandislikelytoincrease.Climatechangethreatenscurrentandfutureproduc0onlevels,foodsecurity,andfisheriesindustryemployment. Inabilitytocatchsufficientfeed-fish LowercatchesimpacRngfishmealandfishoilproduc0on AcidicwateraffecRngshellfishgrowth Increasingfloodriskstofishandshrimpponds Coastalspeciesatincreasedriskofex0nc0on Algalbloomscausingpossiblemassdie-offsinfarmedfish Increasingillegal,unreported,orunregulated(IUU)fishingShiZingfishstocksininterna0onalwatersmaypresentissuesforgovernmentsaZempRngtoreachfishingagreements. 7. climateClimateChange:ImpactsonAquaculture(2/2)everyonesbusiness GlobalfisherieslossesareesRmatedat$17-41billionby2050,withEastAsiaandthePacificmostaffected.InthePacificalone,producRonofreeffishcoulddecreasebyupto20%by2050.Small-scalefisheriesaccountfor~56%ofthecatchand91%offisheryworkersintheCentralandWesternEquatorialPacific,MicronesiaandMelanesia,andSoutheastAsia.AdeclineinglobalshellfishproducRonisprojectedbetween2020and2060.Asfisheriesproduc0ondecline,commodiReswillincreaseinprice.Posi0veeffectsofclimatechangeforaquacultureandfishinginclude:Fastergrowthrates;Fasterfoodconversionefficiency;Longergrowingseasons;Rangeexpansion;Newfishingareasavailablefromdecreasesinicecover 8. climateClimateChange:Resilienceeveryonesbusiness Naturalandfishingindustryabili0estoadaptarelimited.SomeadaptaRonchoicesarecomplex.Therearelikelytobesitua0onswhereadapta0onisimpossible.Technicalmeasuresalreadyfamiliartofishersandfishfamersare:SelecRvefishinggearPlannedmovestonewfishinggroundsAquacultureexpansiontocompensateforfishandshellfishdeclineAdapta0onwillbecomemoredifficultasclimatechangeprogresses. 9. climateClimateChange:Mi0ga0onPoten0al(1/2)everyonesbusiness OpportuniRestoreduceGHGemissionsforthefishing,aquacultureandseafoodindustriesare,ingeneral,notspecifictotheIndustryisdependentonfossilfuelsfortransportinfishingvesselsTransport: Improvingthesector.energyefficiencyofvehicles Switchingtolesscarbon-intensivefuels,e.g.,biofuels Movingtoelectricvehicles Changingthemodeofcarriage,e.g.,fromairtosea Reducingtheoverallnumberofjourneysandincarryingproducetomarket.PoliciesaimedatreducingGHGemissionsacrossthewidereconomycouldberelevanttothisindustry. 10. climateClimateChange:Mi0ga0onPoten0al(2/2)everyonesbusiness ThefishingindustrycanconsiderwaystomiRgateecosystemimpacts:Fishredistribu0on: Undertakevulnerabilityassessments Strengthencoastalzonemanagement ReduceaquaculturedependenceonfishmealOxygen-depleteddeadzones: Reassessandreinforcemarineprotectedareas Protectmangroveforests,seagrassbedsandsaltmarshesShellfishgrowthandproduc0on: Reducenon-climatestressors,e.g.,polluRonCoralreefsatrisk: Createnewhabitatssuchasar0ficialreefstoactasfishnurseriesinareaswherecoraldestrucRonoccurs 11. climateClimateChange:Conclusioneveryonesbusiness Fisheriesandaquaculturearedirectlyimpactedbyclimatechangeeffectsonthephysical,chemicalandbiologicalcomposiRonofoceans.Thesesectorsarealsobecomingmorevulnerabletonon-climatestressorssuchaspolluRonandover-fishing.Acertainlevelofimpactisinevitable.Improvedpolicies,managementandmonitoringsystemsmayhelpadapttoclimatechange.Uncheckedimpactswillacceleratefrom2050,possiblyforcenturies.MeasuresthatquanRfybluecarbonandallowbluecarboncredittradingoninternaRonalcarbonmarketscouldfundpreservaRonprojectsandhelpbuildtheoceansresiliencetoclimatechangeimpacts.BluecarbonCarboncapturedbytheworldsoceansandcoastalecosystems.Thecarbonisstoredintheformofbiomassandsedimentsfrommangroves,saltmarchesandsegrasses. 12. Formoreinforma0onCambridgeInsRtuteforSustainabilityLeadershipipcc@cisl.cam.ac.ukBlakeLee-Harwood,SustainableFisheriesPartnershipblake.lee-harwood@sustainablefish.orgEuropeanClimateFoundaRonAR5@europeanclimate.orgwww.cisl.cam.ac.uk/ipccwww.sustainablefish.orgwww.europeanclimate.org </p>

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