Climate Change Impacts and Adapting to Change

Impacts of a Changing Climate

• The changing climate impacts society and ecosystems in a broad variety of ways.

• climate change can:– increase or decrease rainfall– influence agricultural crop yields– affect human health– cause changes to forests and other ecosystems – impact our energy supply.

Impacts in the Northeast

• Northeast: includes dense cities and sparsely populated towns from the coast to inland plateaus and mountains. Climate varies as much as geography.

• Climate changes: – since 1970 average temperature has risen 2 degrees F and

average winter temp has risen 4 degrees F– Heavy precipitation events increased in magnitude and

frequency– Winter precipitation now occurs mostly as rain rather than

snow

Precipitation and Sea Level Rise

• Increase in heavy precipitation will likely be accompanied by a sea level rise

• Less precipitation in the form of snow will likely result in more frequent, damaging floods (especially Virginia Beach/Norfolk/Hampton Roads region)

• Sea level rise, storm surges, erosion, and the destruction of important coastal ecosystems will likely contribute to an increase in coastal flooding events

• Damages to coastal property and infrastructure could impact the insurance industry; many insurers refuse to insure coastal residences and businesses

Past and projected global average sea level. The gray shaded area shows the estimates of sea level change from 1800 to 1870 when measurements were not available. The

red line is a reconstruction of sea level change measured by tide gauges with the surrounding shaded area depicting the uncertainty. The green line shows sea level

change as measured by satellite.

Hurricanes and Extreme Storms in Virginia

• As they generate power from warm, moist air over warm ocean waters, hurricanes are becoming more intense as climate change continues to increase ocean temperatures

• The frequency of the most intense Category 4 and 5 storms would be expected to increase by 80 percent by 2080

• Historically, no Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane has ever struck in Virginia but climate change is making it more likely that one will eventually do so.

Impacts on Human Health

• Ozone and smog formation is likely to increase In areas that currently face problems with smog; inhabitants are likely to experience more days that fail to meet air quality standards

• More frequent heat waves and lower air quality can threaten the health of vulnerable people

• Big cities are likely to experience some of the highest numbers of heat-related illnesses and deaths

Impacts on Human Health cont. • Extreme precipitation events

could increase the risks of waterborne illnesses caused by sewage overflows and pollutants entering the water supply

• Increase in heavy rains creates favorable conditions for the breeding of mosquitoes that carry West Nile and warmer weather favors ticks that carry Lyme disease

• Extreme storms can damage dams, levees and bridges which could result in fatalities

Impacts on Agriculture and Food Supply

Types of Crops• Northeast may become

unsuitable for growing some fruits (apples, blueberries), grains & soybeans

• Cranberries, a staple in some areas, may no longer grow and maple syrup production may not be possible

Cranberry Harvest in New Jersey

Impacts on Agriculture and Food Supply

Dairy Production• Important to Northeast’s

agricultural economy• Increased temperatures will

reduce milk yields and slow weight gain in dairy cows

• Cows could experience heat stress as nights get warmer and loss of cattle could result

Impacts on Virginia’s Natural Environment

• The Chesapeake Bay and other estuaries are incredibly valuable recreational and economic resources in Virginia (fisheries, recreational uses, ecological functions)

• Over the course of this century, scientists predict that the CO2 content of Bay waters will increase by 50-150 percent, leading to higher acidity

• Water temperatures will rise by two to six degrees C and water levels will increase by 0.7 to 1.6 meters and possibly much more if emissions grow rapidly.

• Storm intensities in the watershed and some seasonal inflows from higher precipitation and runoff are likely to increase as well.

• More than 50 percent of estuarine beaches and 25 percent of ocean beaches on Virginia’s eastern shore will disappear

• Consequences:– Loss of nesting areas (endangered sea turtles)– Loss of wetlands and marshes (66% of fish species

rely on these for nursery and spawning grouds)– Sport-fishing industry (generates 1.5 billion per

year)– Salinity levels will increase and affect many species– Intense storms will wash more non-point pollution

into the Bay (eutrophication)

Impacts on Tourism in Virginia

• An important sector of the economy that will suffer from these environmental impacts is the tourism and travel industry

• This is Virginia’s 5th largest employer Jamestown

Island could be

completely inundated

Virginia Tourism

• The industry generated 287,700 jobs in 2010

• Total expenditures by tourists in 2010 exceeded $31 billion

• This industry is at risk as climate change threatens many vacation destinations

Virginias Action Plan

• In 2007 Climate Change Commission was formed to consider the potential impacts of climate change on the state and to recommend specific actions both to mitigate and to adapt to those impacts

• They put forward a Climate Change Action Plan in December 2008

• It contained many recommendations for cost-effective actions to:

• improve energy efficiency• mitigate and sequester greenhouse gas emissions• promote effective adaptation

Virginias Action Plan Cont’d

• The Action Plan recognized that despite these opportunities for action within Virginia, climate change is a problem that requires national and international action as well as state and local participation

• The rising risks to Virginia’s economy, its people and its irreplaceable natural resources cannot be avoided