Climate ChangeD McRae 14 October 09

Climate forum

• Our climate is always changing and is influenced by both natural variability and human induced changes

Natural Variability Includes• The annual cycle • El Nino/Southern Oscillation, Pacific

Decadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation

• Volcanic eruptions• Fluctuations in solar output • Orbital Cycles• Ocean and Polar Ice Variations

Human Influences Include

• Changing land use• Changing urban climates • Anthropogenic sources of greenhouse

gases (increase in CO2, methane etc = increase in temperature)

• Aerosols and other pollutants

Greenhouse gases• Did not arrive with the last federal election

cycle• Svante Arrhenius

– 1903 Nobel Laureate in Chemistry– Combined existing research on greenhouse effect

(Fourier 1827) with work suggesting the burning of fossils fuels could alter the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (Hogbom 1894) to be the first to calculate greenhouse warming associated with carbon dioxide (1896) and predict possibility of man made global warming

Observations of recent change

Observations of recent change

The future - rainfall

• Already highly variable• No obvious climate change signal at

present• Annual rainfall is projected to decrease by

one percent by 2030• The largest seasonal decrease (six

percent) is projected for spring

The future - temperature• Average annual temperature in the Gulf region

has increased by 0.2oC over last decade (from 26.6oC to 26.8oC)

• Projections indicate a further increase of 1.0oC by 2030 (4.4oC by 2070)

• The number of hot days (>35oC) per year at Burketown is expected to increase from 102 to 138 per year by 2030 (222 per year by 2070)

The future - sea level rise

• A projected sea level rise by 0.8m by 2100 is currently being used by the Qld Government to inform policy e.g. Coastal Management Plan

• Qld Gov is currently developing DEM for entire Qld coastline

• Allow for better understanding of the impacts of sea level rise, storm surge, salt water intrusion on coastal communities

The future - cyclones

• Complex and area of on-going research

• Some mixed results

• However expected total number of cyclones to decrease but number of long lived and severe cyclones to increase

Adaptation strategies

• Should be focused on– Increasing long term profitability– Increasing long term sustainability (or

best practice)– Increasing business and community

resilience

Adaptation strategies

• Grazing industry– (Declining pasture quality & quantity due to increased

CO2 concentration, evaporation, and decreased rainfall, difficulty supplying water to meet demand)

– Changes in grazing systems from set grazing rates to more variable rotational/cell/spell grazing systems

– Changes in production system– Change in species– Changes in breeding cycles – Changes in enterprise structure

Adaptation strategies

• Crop/horticultural industries– Variety and planting date changes – Species change – Changes in metabolism (photosynthesis,

respiration, growth and tissue composition) in plants

– Changes in crop management– More opportunity cropping– Increase risk of soil erosion due to higher

rainfall intensity– Improvement in infrastructure

Adaptation strategies

• All communities– Changes in range of weeds, invasive species,

pests and diseases– Management of pest and disease– Business size/structure/location– Increased public and political pressure on the

use of resources– Increased frequency and intensity of fire– Water use efficiency, access to water and

water management

Adaptation strategies

Four key questions to finish with • What can go wrong (or right)?• How and why can it happen?• What is the likelihood of it happening?• What is the consequence of it happening?• What can we do about it?

Further reading

• Baum et al., 2009, Climate Change, health impacts and urban adaptability: Case study of Gold Coast City, Griffith University, available free at www.griffith.edu.au/urp

• Sustainable tourism CRC, 2009, The impacts of climate change on Australian tourism destinations – developing adaptation and response strategies, available free at www.crctourism.com.au

• Climate Q• Qld Government 2008, What is the science telling us,

available at www.derm.qld.gov.au • The Rangeland Journal www.publish.csiro.au/journals/trj