CLIMATE CHANGE AND STRATEGIES

FOR ADAPTATION OF RUBBER

PLANTATION

IN MALAYSIA

Presentation Overview

Climate change will affect rubber plantation?

Higher temperatures, less precipitation, more

variability

Likely negative effects: Where and how much?

Projected Results

Adaptation/resilience: Rubber will need

New varieties/clones, more infrastructure, changes in management

practices and policies

Conclusion

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE

CHANGE

ON RUBBER PLANTATION

RUBBER ZONE FOR PENINSULAR MALAYSIARUBBER ZONE FOR PENINSULAR MALAYSIA

State Rubber

Based on

Climate

Rubber

Based on

Topography

Rubber

Based on

Tradition

Total

(Hectare)

Rubber

Area 2004

(Hectare)

%Area of

Rubber

Zone

Perlis 9,528 - - 9,528 9,528 100

Kedah 78,218 24,786 13,362 116,366 128,959 90

Kelantan 55,232 64,971 - 120,204 143,218 84

N. Sembilan - 79,749 5,155 84,904 122,835 69

Selangor - - 11,954 11,954 37,868 32

Pulau Pinang - - 1,673 1,673 2,678 62

Melaka - - 31,246 31,246 49,200 64

Pahang - 241,351 - 241,351 275,784 88

Perak 10,199 90,977 31,656 132,832 151,088 88

Terengganu 23,780 - 18,920 42,700 58,011 74

Johor - 66,101 60,024 126,125 161,465 78

Total 176,957 567,935 173,991 918,883 1,140,634 81

Wan Noordin et al (2005)

Topography 567,935 ha

Tradition 173,991 ha

Climate 176,957 ha

Legend

RUBBER ZONE IN

PENINSULAR

MALAYSIA

PREDICTED

TEMPERATURE & RAINFALL

AND

PROJECTED GROWTH/YIELD

Prediction is based on:

1. Future Hydro Climate Database(Pangkalan Data Iklim Hidro Akan Datang)

Thanks to NAHRIM

2. Hevea Growth and Production Model

KEDAH

Topography 24,786 ha

Tradition 13,362 haClimate 78,218 ha

Legend

Rainfall (Kedah)

1906.11878.3

1779.9

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

P1984 P2025 P2050

Predicted year

mm

Temperature (Kedah)

25.3

27.4

28.3

23.0

24.0

25.0

26.0

27.0

28.0

29.0

1984 2025 2050

Year

Te

mp

era

ture

(0

C)

3. Rubber zone area

PERLIS

PULAU PINANG

Climate - 9,528 ha

Legend

Tradition 1,673 ha

Legend

Rainfall (Perak)

2796.1

2197.1 2284.5

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

P1984 P2025 P2050

Predicted year

mm

PERAK

Topography 90,977 ha

Tradition 31,656 ha

Climate 10,199 ha

Legend

Temperature (Perak)

28.0

28.6

29.0

27.0

27.5

28.0

28.5

29.0

29.5

1984 2025 2050

Year

Te

mp

era

ture

(0C

)

PAHANG

Topography 241,351 ha

Legend

Rainfall (Pahang)

2219.1

2301.6

2232.7

2000

2050

2100

2150

2200

2250

2300

2350

P1984 P2025 P2050

Predicted year

mm

Temperature (Pahang)

26.626.9

29.1

25.0

26.0

27.0

28.0

29.0

30.0

1984 2025 2050

Year

Te

mp

era

ture

(0

C)

KELANTAN

Topography 64,971 ha

Climate 55,232 ha

Legend

Legend

Climate 23,780 ha

Tradition 18,920 ha

Legend

Rainfall (Kelantan)

1901.8 1905.6

1803.6

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

P1984 P2025 P2050

Predicted year

mm

TERENGGANU

Temperature (Kelantan)

27.327.6

28.3

26.5

27.0

27.5

28.0

28.5

1984 2025 2050

Year

Te

mp

era

ture

(0C

)

NEGERI SEMBILAN

SELANGOR

Tradition 11,954 ha

Legend

Topography 79,749 ha

Legend

Tradition 5,155 ha

Rainfall (Negeri Sembilan)

2276.1

1904.41683.8

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

P1984 P2025 P2050

Predicted year

mm

Temperature (Negeri Sembilan)

27.0

27.7

28.5

26.0

26.5

27.0

27.5

28.0

28.5

29.0

1984 2025 2050

Year

Te

mp

era

ture

(0

C)

Tradition 31,246

Legend

Topography 66,101 ha

Legend

Tradition 60,024 ha

JOHOR

MELAKA

Rainfall (Johor)

1704.7 1740.12054.4

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

P1984 P2025 P2050

Predicted year

mm

Temp

27.8

28.4

29.1

27.0

27.5

28.0

28.5

29.0

29.5

1984 2025 2050

Year

Te

mp

era

ture

(0

C)

Projected Results Northern area ( Perak, Kelantan gain less rain -

120mm ) & Negeri Sembilan gains less rainfall (- 600

mm/year)

Temperature rise in the range of 1 2.2o C

Due to increased water stress, therefore projected

results:

delayed immaturity period up to 4 months (Kedah &

Kelantan) & 6 months (Negeri Sembilan)

reduce of production up to 18 % ( Kedah & Kelantan )

while 20 % for Negeri Sembilan

Impact on production

State Zone area Mature area Production Projected Less Value at

(Ha) (Ha) - 70% Production RM5000/tonne

(tonne) (tonne) (tonne)

Kedah 116366 81456 114039 93512 20527 $102,634,812

Kelantan 120204 84143 117800 96596 21204 $106,019,928

N. Sembilan 84904 59433 83206 66565 16641 $83,205,920

TOTAL 321474 225032 315045 258337 56708 $283,540,068

Assumption:

70% area under tapping

Average yield - 1400kg/ha/year

Challenges to all !!!

and

adaptation needed

Adaptation in rubber plantation is

essential and to do that;

Good development policy is important first step to ensure higher incomes from rubber areas,

- do we need to revise our rubber zone

- if not, do we need to expand our plantation area to meet our national

production

- suitable planting systems for rubber i.e.

monocrop or agroforestry

use sustainable, provide resilience program/TOT

program in the face of climate change

participatory identification of current vulnerabilities and

risk reduction

reduction activities (e.g. national and sub-national early

warning systems);

strengthening capacity of communities to manage their

resources (e.g. savings )

raising awareness of farmers and building capacities

Location, location, location

Climate change effects vary across the landscape

Whats needed?

- Location-specific analysis

- Location-specific programs and policy measures

Adaptation needs

Time and also fund available for research to

improve our understanding of the interactions

between climate change and rubber

- different variety/clone or species;

- new crop varieties (rubber agroforestry)

- adaptive management with suitable species

and silvicultural practices

Increased research in suitable up-to-date

technology

- Higher spatial resolution and more relevant outputs from climate models

- better integration of rubber into integrated

assessment models

- better biophysical and socioeconomic modeling

of climate change-rubber interactions

Increased research in soil conservation, water

storage and management

- promotes low tillage and maintenance of

permanent soil cover that can increase soil organic

matter and reduce impacts from drought, flooding,

erosion, or heavy rain

- efficient fertiliser program for rubber, integrated fertiliser

management

Policy improvements associated with

environmental services

- credit schemes, agricultural inputs, agricultural production, land use, etc.);

- enhancing the use of technological options to

manage climate variability (compounding, properties

of rubber)

Conclusions

Adaptation to Climate Change in rubber plantation,

should highlight the needs for action in the

following priority areas

methods and tools

data and observations

climate modelling, scenarios

climate related risks and extreme events

socio-economic information

adaptation planning and practices

research and

technologies for adaptation

Lastly

Year 2025 in only one cycle of rubber plantation

Year 2050 is plus another cycle of rubber plantation

Are we ready for that?

Thank you