A perspective about the near future

Antonio J. Díaz Mora – Dic2011

CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL

DISASTERS

This slideshow has been

made in order to present

some of the possible

consequences found by the

scientific community in

relation to the global

temperature increase of the

earth.

INTRODUCTION

• Earthquakes, floods, drought and other natural

hazards cause tens of thousands of deaths,

hundreds of thousand injuries and billion of dollars in

economic losses each year around the world.

• About 600 disasters are globally recorded each

year by the Centre of Research on the

Epidemiology of Disasters in Brussels.

• The reported number of natural disasters worldwide

has been increasing, from fewer than 100 in 1975 to

more than 400 in 2005.

HAZARDS

• Cyclones.

• Drought and

desertification.

• Wild land fires.

• Floods.

• Mud floods.

• Storms and hailstorms.

• Earthquakes.

• Volcanoes.

• Landslides.

• Ice avalanches.

For instance:

More than 1,600 storm

tracks are dated for the

period 1 January 1980

through 31 December

2000. It supposes more

than 80 each year.

Not all these hazards are

directly related with

climate change, but the

possible relations between

each other, and natural

disasters could increase

enormously the

vulnerability of

populations of all kind of

successes.

INTERACTIONS CHAIN

Greenhouse gasses emissions

Global warming. Wind and rain

patterns.

Rising sea levels. Storms, cyclones

and others.

Coast lost, soil erosion

Less agricultural productivity. Changes in ecosystem and

biodiversity.

Migration patterns, biodiversity lost, genetic

resources.

NUMBER OF DISASTERS

A SAMPLE OF INTERACTION: ARTIC GRACIER RETREAT

• For the last two years, we are undergoing severe cold weather episodes in north America, northern Europe and eastern Asia. The effects are not only the loos of ice sheets but also changes in wind patterns.

• The surface temperature in the Artic sea is even more higher than we expected, because of a phenomenon called ‘Artic Amplification’. Is is believed to be caused by the change in energy absorption, i.e., the darker surface of the sea without ice absorbs more solar energy than the reflective ice.

HOW CLIMATE IS AFFECTED BY GLOBAL

WARMING

Climate alteration

Sea temperature

Oceanacidification

Glacier disappearance and sea level.

Oxygen depletion

Changes in tropical storm frequency, intensity and tracks, that interact with coastal development in urban and rural areas.

Agricultural areas already under pressure from urbanization and other land use changes will become more susceptible to drought, severe weather or floods.

WHAT WE CAN EXPECT

Source: NASA

REFERENCES

• Natural Disaster Hotspots: a global

risk analysis. March 2005. United

Nations. Framework Convention on

Climate Change.

• Centre for Research on the

Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED).

• Development Actions and the Rising

Incidence of Disasters. Evaluation

Brief 4. Independent Evaluation

Group. World Bank.