climate change and its implications for coastal and marine ecosystems frank schwing bioforum -...
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Climate Change and its Implications for Coastal and
Marine Ecosystems
Frank Schwing
BioForum - Adapting to Climate Change: Challenges and Prospects
17 April 2010
The Challenge: Sustainable Management of an Ever-Changing Planet
The Challenge: Sustainable Management of an Ever-Changing Planet
Climate change is an environmental issue...Climate change is an environmental issue......and a developmental, economic, & ...and a developmental, economic, &
political issuepolitical issue
Climate change affects the ability of ecosystems Climate change affects the ability of ecosystems to to provide essential goods and servicesprovide essential goods and services
Adaptation can reduce adverse effects…Adaptation can reduce adverse effects………but not prevent all damagebut not prevent all damage
With consensus on global climate change, the With consensus on global climate change, the national national priority is evolving toward priority is evolving toward determining determining ecosystem impacts, and ecosystem impacts, and mitigation and adaptationmitigation and adaptation
U.S. — A “Perfect Storm” forClimate & Marine Ecosystems
Demand for seafood, economical and efficient fisheries
Protected areas must be sited & monitored with future change in mind
Conservation and recovery programs, marine spatial planning, ecosystem approaches to management…
Coastal human communities expect pristine environment, but stress coastal & ocean habitat, and are vulnerable to climate change
Recognition of changing ecosystems, better understanding of climate-ecosystem links
Reality of climate change
Ecosystems respond To climate change
(Frank Perry, SCNHM)
Climate Change = Ecosystem Change
Monterey Pine — range
Today Fossil
Large-ScaleCirculation:
The California Current,Part of the North Pacific
Ocean Circulation
(from Jack Barth, OSU)
Coastal upwelling
Satellitechlorophyll
andtemperature
(from Jack Barth, OSU)
Ocean physical changes (e.g., warming, currents)
Ocean acidification
Effects of global change vs. natural variation
Freshwater supply
Sea level rise
Loss of sea ice
Climate Change Issues for Coastaland Marine Ecosystems
Global Temperature TrendGlobal Temperature Trend
Global Warming Spatial PatternsGlobal Warming Spatial Patterns
California Marine Populations Shifting Northward
(from Union of Concerned Scientists)
Warmer Climate Favors Southern Intertidal Species
(from Berry et al., 1995)
Lower Production in 2005 & 2006due to Weak Springtime Upwelling
(from David Foley, NOAA NESDIS)
2005-2006 - worst years on record for Farallon Island auklets (42 km west of San Francisco)
Mean productivity = 0.70
From Sydeman and Bradley, PRBO
#you
ng/b
reed
ing-
pair
Nests abandoned due to delayed upwelling
Ocean AcidificationThat ‘other’ CO2 problem
Estimated aragonite saturation states of the surface ocean for the years 1765, 1995, 2040, and 2100 (Feely et al., submitted), based on the modeling results of Orr et al. (2005) and a business-as-usual CO2 emissions scenario.
As ocean calcium carbonate saturation state decreases, calcification rates by marine organisms can decline. - reduced extension rates - weaker skeletons/shells
pH
CO32-
CO2(aq)
Wolf-Gladrow et al., 1999
COCO22 and Ocean Acidification and Ocean Acidification
Ocean acidification effect on coral:(A) healthy coral with skeleton
(B) coral polyps unable to build reef
© Nancy Knowlton
Western Alaskan SockeyeBritish Columbia Sockeye
Central Alaskan PinkJapanese Chum
Pink salmon diet Predicted effect of climate change on pink salmon growth:
•10% increase in water temperature leads to 3% drop in mature salmon body weight (physiological effect).
•10% decrease in pteropod production leads to 20% drop in mature salmon body weight (prey limitation).
(Aydin et al. 2005)
Fishery Impacts of Ocean AcidificationFishery Impacts of Ocean Acidification
10% decrease in pteropod production leads to 20% drop in pink salmon body weight
INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY : Long-term Trends
• Station 93.30 at sigma-theta=26.4
• Representative of California Undercurrent Waters
• Long-term warming trend
• Increases in total nitrate and phosphate, but at different rates
• Long-term trend in N:P ratio
• Also trends in preformed andregenerated nutrients
• Possible shifts in source waters andecosystem structure
Bograd et al. (2005)
Changes in CA Current Source WaterChanges in CA Current Source Water
Low Oxygen Waters Spreadinginto the California Current
Figure: Barth & Shearman
Bottom trawl surveys, Pavlov Bay, AK
Lat
e 19
60’s
Lat
e 19
70’s
1980
’s
(from Anderson and Piatt, 1999)
Climate shifts perturb fisheries and have socio-
economic impacts
Lat
e 19
60’s
Lat
e 19
70’s
1980
’s
Climate shifts perturb fisheries and have socio-
economic impacts
Bottom trawl surveys, Pavlov Bay, AK(from Anderson and Piatt, 1999)
Lat
e 19
60’s
Lat
e 19
70’s
1980
’s
Bottom trawl surveys, Pavlov Bay, AK(from Anderson and Piatt, 1999)
Climate shifts perturb fisheries and have socio-
economic impacts
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
warm phase
Interdecadal climate variability (“regime shifts”) changes ecosystem structure and productivity
(from Nathan Mantua, U. Washington) (from Peterson and Schwing, 2003)
cool phase
zooplankton
OR coho
copepods
CA Sardine-Anchovy CyclesCA Sardine-Anchovy Cycles
Natural decadal cycles for at least Two Millenia off So. CA
Global Streamflow Projections Global Streamflow Projections
1961-1990Mean
2070-2099 Medium Warming/ Drier Climate
(from California Climate Change Center)
Decreasing Sierra SnowpackDecreasing Sierra Snowpack
Earlier California Seasonal Earlier California Seasonal Snowmelt and RunoffSnowmelt and Runoff
Global Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Change in CaliforniaSea Level Change in California
Golden Gate Water Level
SF Bay - 1m Sea Level Rise Projection SF Bay - 1m Sea Level Rise Projection
Sea IceSea Ice
Arctic Sea Ice National Snow and Ice Data Center
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/index.html
Sea ice extent continued to increase seasonally, but was near the historic low value in Feb 2010.
Climate Change Projected to ImpactCalifornia Current Ecosystem
• Warmer summer temperatures; greater ocean stratification, weaker upwelling (very likely)
• Warmer & wetter winters; greater freshwater inflow, coastal flooding (very likely)
• Higher coastal sea level (very likely)
• More extreme events; stronger storms, El Nino, hurricanes (likely)
• Delayed seasonal cycle; delayed upwelling (likely)
• Northward species shifts• Lower productivity & food• Exotic species introduced
• Reduced coastal water quality• Toxic blooms• Human health hazards
• Intertidal species displaced• Wetlands reduced
• Greater coastal erosion• Fisheries reduced & displaced• Warm-water fisheries available
• Delayed spring bloom• Reproduction, migration
impacted
Projected changes - 21st century
Examples of ecological impacts
Mitigate: avoid the unmanageable
Adapt: manage the unavoidable
SolutionsSolutions
Reduce other stresses that can be controlled• Reduce nutrient and chemical pollution• Manage fisheries conservatively• Control invasive species
Protect biodiversity & habitats • Maximize likelihood of adaption• Maximize population and ecosystem resiliency
Invest in scientific research, monitoring and education
SolutionsSolutions
Green Seas Blue Seas http://swfsc.noaa.gov/PG-Mural.aspx Consumer facts on safe, sustainable seafood FishWatch.noaa.gov