July 23, 2009

Climate Change and Energy

National and Regional Perspective

Ken Mitchell, Ph.D.Energy and Climate Change CoordinatorU.S. EPA; Atlanta, Georgia

Global Climate Change

Some Key Messages: Human activities have led to large increases

in heat-trapping gases over the past century Global average temperature and sea level

have increased, and precipitation patterns have changed

The global warming of the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced increases in heat-trapping gases

Human “fingerprints” also have been identified in many other aspects of the climate system, including changes in ocean heat content, precipitation, atmospheric moisture, and Arctic sea ice

Global temperatures are projected to continue to rise over this century; by how much and for how long depends on a number of factors, including the amount of heat-trapping gas emissions and how sensitive the climate is to those emissions

US GCRP, 2009

Climate Change and Energy

An EPA Priority Reducing greenhouse gases is a top priority

for Administrator Jackson

Some key actions taken: Endangerment Finding Mandatory Reporting Renewable Fuels Standard

Proposed Endangerment Finding

Current and projected concentrations of the mix of key greenhouse in the atmosphere threaten the public health and welfare of current and future generations

carbon dioxide (CO2) methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2O) hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) perfluorocarbons (PFCs) sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)

Proposed Endangerment Finding

“Cause or contribute finding” The combined emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, and

HFCs from new motor vehicles and motor vehicle engines contribute to the atmospheric concentrations of these key greenhouse gases and hence to the threat of climate change

Federal Register notice 4/24/09

Comment period closed 6/23/09

Mandatory Reporting of GHGs

Required by FY08 omnibus appropriations legislation

Federal Register Notice 4/10/09

Comment Period Closed 6/09/09

Transportation28%

Industry19%

Agriculture7%

Commercial6%

Residential5%

Electricity Generation

34%

Inventory of U.S. GHG Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2007http://epa.gov/climatechange/

Covered Chemicals

Anthropogenic GHG emissions covered under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and other fluorinated gases

carbon dioxide (CO2) methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2O) hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) perfluorocarbons (PFC) sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) hydrofluorinated ethers (HFE)

Expressed in metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (mtCO2e)

Who Reports?

Primarily facility, with limited exceptions (e.g., fuel importers, vehicle and engine manufacturers)

Sector Reporters

Electricity Generation Power plants

Transportation Vehicle and Engine Manufacturers

Industrial All large industrial emitters, including those in the following industries:

Metals Iron and Steel, Aluminum, Magnesium, Ferroalloy, Zinc, and Lead

Minerals Cement, Lime, Glass, Silicon Carbide, Pulp and Paper

Chemicals

HCFC-22, Ammonia, Nitric Acid, Adipic Acid, SF6 from Electrical Equipment, Hydrogen, Petrochemicals, Titanium Dioxide, Soda Ash, Phosphoric Acid, Electronics, Titanium Dioxide

Oil and Gas Components of oil and gas systems, Underground coal mining

Other Landfills, Wastewater Treatment, Ethanol, Food Processing

Agriculture Manure Management

Upstream Suppliers*

Petroleum Refineries, Gas Processors, Natural Gas Distribution Companies, Coal Mines, Importers/Exporters, Industrial Gases (e.g., HFCs, N2O, PFCs, CO2)

*Some upstream suppliers will also be reporting their direct emissions (e.g., refineries)

Thresholds, Methods, and Frequency

Threshold Capacity-based threshold, where appropriate and feasible;

Emissions-based threshold of 25,000 metric tons of CO2e/yr for other sources

Methods Direct measurement, where available, and facility-specific

calculation for other sources EPA direct reporting system for fuel quantity and quality

information Frequency

Annually for New Reporters (facilities reporting quarterly for existing mandatory programs continue quarterly reports)

First reports submitted to EPA March 31, 2011 for CY2010 Engine manufacturers report for model year 2011

Proposed Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2)

Proposed revision to current RFS (RFS1) as required by the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA)

Significant increase in renewables to displace petroleum consumption

Lifecycle analysis for GHGs

www.epa.gov/OMS/RENEWABLEFUELS

Volume Changes Over Time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Year

Bil

lio

n G

allo

ns

Advanced Biofuel: Unspecified

Advanced Biofuel: Biomass-Based Diesel

Advanced Biofuel: Cellulosic Biofuel

Conventional Biofuel

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Thresholds

Required GHG reduction thresholds for the various categories of fuels

Evaluated over the full lifecycle

Compared to the lifecycle emissions of 2005 petroleum baseline fuels

Lifecycle GHG Thresholds Specified in EISA

(percent reduction from 2005 baseline)

Renewable fuela  20%

Advanced biofuel *50%

Biomass-based diesel  50%

Cellulosic biofuel  60%

a The 20% criterion generally applies to renewable fuel from new facilities that commenced construction after December 19, 2007. * EPA is proposing to exercise the 10% adjustment allowance provided for in EISA for the advanced biofuels threshold to as low as 40%

Preliminary Emissions Impacts

Pollutant Change in total U.S. inventory1 in 2022 in comparison to RFS1 mandate

NOx 2.5 to 3.0%

HC 0.6%

PM10 1.0%

PM2.5 0.3%

CO -3.1 to -5.8%

Ethanol 29 to 33%

Acetaldehyde 28 to 38%

Benzene -1.5 to -3.5%

GHG -150 to -160 million tons per year on average (over 30 to 100 years respectively)

1 Includes all upstream and downstream emissions

What about Region 4?

Some key facts about Region 4….

Home to 20% of the population (with a large EJ component)

We generated about 24% of electricity in U.S. (burning coal is a primary fuel source) in 2007

Responsible for about 24% of U.S. CO2 emissions (from power production) in 2007

We use more fuel and drive more miles than any other Region

Energy Information AdministrationFederal Highways AdministrationU.S. Census Bureau

VMT by region

0100,000

200,000300,000400,000500,000

600,000700,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

VMT

(mill

ions

)

R1

R2

R3

R4

R5

R6

R7

R8

R9

R10

2007 CO2 Emission from Power Generation in R4 States

Source: Energy Information Administration

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

140,000,000

AL FL GA KY MS NC SC TN

To

ns

20%

2007 Electricity Generation (Electric Power Industry) in R4 States

Source: Energy Information Administration

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

AL FL GA KY MS NC SC TN

Me

ga

wa

tts

23%

Energy Efficiency

Reduce energy use in buildings Energy Star Green Buildings

Connection to water WaterSense Energy efficient infrastructure

Connection to materials management WasteWise

Green remediation opportunities

Promote more fuel efficient vehicles/fuels, better transit options, and smart planning and growth

BioEnergy

Southeast could dominate this industry

Some activities to promote bioenergy production and use in the SE

Southeastern Diesel Collaborative

Biodiesel production in communities and technical training for schools

Agriculture and other Waste-to-Energy projects

Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts

Many concerns for the Southeast….

Most coastline in the lower 48 states

Large at-risk population Prone to frequent natural

disasters Significant forestry, agriculture,

infrastructure, and ecosystem resources

Adaptation planning underway and transportation will be an important consideration

Ocean surface temperature during the peak hurricane season, August through October, in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes. Higher sea surface temperatures in this region of the ocean have been associated with more intense hurricanes. As ocean temperatures continue to increase in the future, it is likely that hurricane rainfall and wind speeds will increase in response to human-caused warming.

US GCRP, 2009

What about air quality?

Potential impact of climate change on: Ozone Particulate

matter Toxics Pollen

Courtesy of Sustaining the Environment and Resources for Canadians

Questions?

Ken Mitchell, Ph.D.

Energy and Climate Change Coordinator

U.S. EPA; Atlanta, Georgia

404-562-9065

mitchell.ken@epa.gov

www.epa.gov/CLIMATECHANGE

www.epa.gov/CLEANENERGY

www.epa.gov/OMS/RENEWABLEFUELS