Climate Change & Agriculturein Uzbekistan

Awareness Raising and Consultation Workshop

May 19, 2010 Tashkent

Dr. William R. Sutton Senior Agricultural EconomistEurope & Central Asia Region

The World Bank

Why Should You Care about Why Should You Care about Climate Change?Climate Change?

• Climate change is already happening in Uzbekistan

• Climate change in Uzbekistan will accelerate in the future

• “Business as usual” approach will have negative impacts for agriculture

• Now is the time to start developing and implementing adaptation responses

Uzbekistan’s Climate Is Already Changing

Source: www.climatewiz.org

Increasing Frequency and Severity of Increasing Frequency and Severity of Extreme EventsExtreme Events

•Uzbekistan’s climate is highly variable from month to month and year to year•Frequency and severity of extreme events shows an increasing trend, especially high temperature days.

Number of Days with Maximum Temperatures Higher than 38oC

The Adaptation DeficitThe Adaptation Deficit

Mean Yields in Uzbekistan and China for Cotton Seed and Wheat: 1992-2008

• The productivity gap between potential yields and actual yields is significant for Uzbekistan

• Countries/regions that have opportunities to benefit from climate change are poorly positioned to do so

Source: www.faostat.fao.org

Wheat Yield Potential Above 7t/ha

Why Should You Care About Why Should You Care About Climate Change?Climate Change?

Climate change in Uzbekistan will Accelerate in the Future

Temperatures are Projected to Increase Temperatures are Projected to Increase SignificantlySignificantly

Precipitation is Projected to Precipitation is Projected to Increase Moderately Increase Moderately

Aridity is Projected to Increase SignificantlyAridity is Projected to Increase Significantly

Summer Temperature

s

Summer Precipitation

“Business as usual” will result in missed opportunities and

negative impacts for agriculture

Why Should You Care About Why Should You Care About Climate Change?Climate Change?

Uzbekistan Is Vulnerable on a Number of

Fronts Uzbekistan’s climate change vulnerability exceeds the ECA region average for a number of factors

Sources: World Development Indicators 2008; FAO AGL 2005; Baettig, M. et al., 2007., ECA Databank.

Enhancing Adaptive Capacity and Reducing Sensitivity Are Critical to Reducing Vulnerability

Source: Fay and Patel, 2008.

Some Agro-ecological Zones and Production Systems Are More Vulnerable than Others

Countrywide•More risk for agricultural production, and increased moisture deficits, especially during summer.•Increased risk of heatwaves, drought and other extreme events•Longer growing season could provide new crop opportunities in suitable areas.

Agro-ecological Zone (AEZ) Climate Change Implications

Desert and Steppe AEZ•Reduced crop and livestock productivity•Increased risk of aridity, desertification and salinization •Increased risk of heatwaves, drought and water scarcity

AEZ Climate Change Implications

Piedmont AEZ•Longer growing season could provide new crop opportunities•Reduced crop and livestock productivity, especially over summer•Increased risk of frosts on early flowering perennials•Increased risk of aridity, desertification and salinization

AEZ Climate Change Implications

Highland AEZ•Longer growing season could increase pasture productivity.•Increased risk of agricultural pests, diseases and weeds.•Increased rate and change in timing of snow melt, leading to different stream flow regimes in the lower catchment

Wheat Yields are Projected to Decline, whilst Results for Maize Yields are Mixed

Source: Fischer, G., et.al. 2007.

No Adaptation = Reduced Water for Irrigation No Adaptation = Reduced Water for Irrigation

•Agriculture ≥ 90% of water withdrawals•With no adaption, water demand will increase, secured supplies will decrease•Result = 500% increase in projected water deficit by 2050 •Opportunities for substantial improvements in water use efficiency

Source: Adapted from Centre of Hydrometeorological Service, Cabinet of Ministers, 2008. Second National Communication of the Republic of Uzbekistan under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Tashkent

Now is the time to start developing and implementing

adaptation responses

Why Should You Care about Why Should You Care about Climate Change?Climate Change?

Initial Steps Already Taken, But More to Do

• First National Communication, 1999;

• Second National Communication, 2008;

• Uzhydromet Study: Climate Change and its Impact on Hydrometeorological Processes, Agro-Climatic and Water Resources, 2007.

Uzbekistan needs a consolidated strategy and a comprehensive action plan to meet the climate

challenges facing the crop and livestock sectors

.

There is Increasing Global Focus on the Development of National Adaptation Strategies

• Uzbekistan is a party to Article 4 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that stipulates:

“All Parties shall formulate and implement measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change”

• The 2008 Second National Communication of Uzbekistan to the UNFCCC highlights:

“Vulnerability assessment and selection of adaptation measures for the agroindustrial complex is of a

specific importance for food security”

• establish a cross-ministerial or cross-sectorial council for adaptation to climate change

Adaptation has Long Investment Horizons – Action is Needed Now

Varieties, planting times, spacing, livestock vaccination,

tillage practices, water and nutrient management

Climate ready germplasm, index insurance

irrigation infrastructure, hydromet services

farm subsidy and water pricing reform

Transformation of landuse or distribution change

New products such as ecosystem services

Climate change

Ben

efit

fro

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adap

tati

on

Incr

easi

ng c

ompl

exity

,

cost

and

risk

Source: Adapted from: Howden et al. 2007.

Why Should You Care about Climate Why Should You Care about Climate Change?Change?

• Uzbekistan is one of most vulnerable countries to climate change in the Europe and Central Asia Region

• Climate variability and change are already impacting Uzbekistan and will accelerate in the future

• Business as usual approach will result in missed opportunities and negative impacts for agriculture

• Now is the time to start developing and implementing adaptation responses

• Focus on “win-win” or “no regrets” solutions, and mitigation opportunities

• The World Bank has a program to support you in this

Thank You!