climate change adaptation position paper · 8 draft: climate change adaptation position paper:...

Rail Providing Solutions Today

Climate Change Adaptation Position Paper

Assessing the impact on rail infrastructure

Australasian Railway Association Inc.

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Draft: Climate change adaptation position paper: Australian Rail Infrastructure

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Contents

TABLE OF CONTENTS ...................................................................................................... 2

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................ 3

About this report ............................................................................................................ 7

1. Why is adaptation planning important for rail ........................................................ 8

Climate change variables and rail infrastructure planning ...................................................... 9

Rail in Australia ...................................................................................................................... 10

Longevity of rail infrastructure .............................................................................................. 11

Cost of mistakes ..................................................................................................................... 11

Continuity and cost-benefit ................................................................................................... 11

2. Climate change: Getting the basics right............................................................... 13

3. Climate risk assessments and adaptation planning .............................................. 18

Climate modelling and scenarios ........................................................................................... 18

Climate change data in Australia ........................................................................................... 19

Climate variables ................................................................................................................... 22

How Australia’s climate will change ...................................................................................... 24

4. Further actions ....................................................................................................... 32

References .................................................................................................................... 38

Appendix A – Detailed risks .......................................................................................... 40

Appendix B – Useful reference and data list ................................................................ 43


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Executive Summary

In December 2010 to January 2011, Queensland experienced some of the most destructive

extreme weather events in history. Extended periods of heavy rain caused massive flooding to

the South East and central Queensland. 35 people were killed. 200,000 people and over 70

towns were affected. Reconstruction costs have been estimated at $10bn1. Reconstruction

costs for the rail industry are estimated to be approximately $1bn.

There is some debate as to whether recent events such as the Queensland floods, Cyclone Yasi,

the 2009 Victorian heatwaves are a result of global warming. The policy and regulatory

landscape governing issues relating to climatic events are ever changing. New Australian

standards are being developed, the International Panel on Climate Change will provide updated

analysis on climate change in 2014, and the Productivity Commission

However the global scientific community is clear that climate change will impact extreme

weather events and for a large part of Australia, these events will become more severe2.

Warming and associated climatic changes will have serious consequences for Australia. Given

our coastal populations and fragile water and agricultural resources, the CSIRO believes

Australia to be one of the most vulnerable developed countries to climate changes. The primary

climatic change events include:

Increased average temperatures and increased numbers of extreme heat events;

Increased incidence of extreme precipitation and drought events;

Rising sea levels;

Changing humidity patterns; and

Increased incidence of weather events such as high winds.

These events will lead to greater flooding, water resource insecurity, bushfires and natural

disasters.

For the rail industry, climatic changes will impact rail infrastructure. Whilst the severity of these

impacts is not currently understood, the types of impacts include:

Track failures (buckling, mechanical, electrical failure) due to more extreme

temperature days

1 IBISWorld, Queensland Floods: Economic Impact, January 2011.

2 CSIRO, Adaptation science - Opportunities and responses to climate change impacts


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Increased risk of flood and storm damage to track infrastructure

Sea level rise flooding coastal tracks, yards and other infrastructure

Wind damage to overhead lines

Track failure due to decreased soil stability and increased erosion

Increased bushfire damage risk

Other climate change impacts which will have an indirect impact on rail operations (which are

outside the scope of this report), include:

Reduced grain crop leading to reductions in rural services and revenue

Decrease in rainfall in southern Australia leading to increases in dust and sand drifts

affecting services

Higher temperatures leading to increase in heat stress for outdoor workers and

passengers

Higher temperatures leading to increased costs of air conditioning in stations and on

passenger services (both capital and operating costs) and possible power overloads and

failures on operational systems

Climate change impacts could have catastrophic effects on rail infrastructure in Australia.

Events previously assumed to be ‘one hundred year’ events may now be more frequent and

more damaging.

Adapting large-scale infrastructure such as rail, to climate change, is a formidable challenge. Rail

infrastructure is vast, has an extremely long useful life and decisions made now will have impact

on whether or not future generations will be granted the same level of mobility and supply

chain efficiencies we now experience. Future proofing Australia’s rail infrastructure requires

time and resources.

The rail industry, like most industries in Australia and across the world, does not have a strong

understanding of its vulnerability to climate change events. There is certainly no systemic

industry approach in identifying and assessing climate change risks.

This initial analysis is the first step in adaptation planning for the rail industry. To succeed in

future proofing critical infrastructure, the industry will need to drive a long-term programme of

activities aimed at mitigating a select group of important risks. To achieve success in adapting

rail ageing infrastructure to Australia’s likely future climate, the industry will need to undertake

some further activities.


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This position paper includes recommendation on a structured framework and associated

guidance to promote good decision-making. This should enable the rail industry to recognise

and evaluate the risks posed by a changing climate, making the best use of available information

about climate change, its impacts and appropriate adaptive responses. The paper reviews

methods and techniques for climate risk assessment, and in particular gives guidance on the

appropriate use of climate change projections/forecasting and modelling. Using these methods

will be important in delivering adaptation responses that are successful in the face of an

uncertain future.

1. Agree to common baseline assumptions to be used as standard in the industry (subject to

change as climate data evolves and improves):

a. Climate scenario: Scenario to be used is A1F1 (see Section 2 for more details)

b. Variables to consider as a minimum:

i. Extreme temperature events

ii. Extreme rainfall events (flooding)

iii. Sea level rise

iv. Storm surge and storm tide

v. Storms

vi. Cyclones

vii. Fire danger index (relative humidity and drought conditions)

c. Data sources (see It is suggested that the rail industry use the data prepared by the

CSIRO and BoM as presented in the Climate Change in Australia – Technical Report and

OzClim.

It is suggested that the rail industry also use the data prepared by the relevant State agencies.

Where the data differs should be highlighted and provides critical sensitivity analysis for the

projections.

Other national and state based guidelines and standards should also be referenced such as for

flooding projections essential input will be the Engineers Australia Rainfall and Runoff Report

when it is made available. See relevant state agencies for advice on the most recent guidance

material.

It should be noted that the availability of granular data varies significantly between sources, and

in many

d. Table 2 for more details):


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i. Climate change in Australia – Technical report 2007

ii. OzClim

iii. Engineers Australia Annual Rainfall and Runoff (Revised version due 2014)

e. Minimum Risks to be analysed (see Table 10)

2. Industry to meet with key research organisations to confirm climate modelling data and

scenarios

3. Undertake organisational level risk assessments to determine key infrastructure vulnerability

to climate change and internally prioritise any adaptation actions

4. Collate industry wide comprehensive risk analysis of critical rail infrastructure

5. Form a working group comprised of industry and government to guide adaptation

prioritisation and a program of works to address critically important areas of rail

infrastructure

Future-proofing our rail infrastructure will be highly dependent on the involvement and

participation of key stakeholders. These include State and Commonwealth Governments,

climate scientists, research organisations, rail operators and customers. It will involve

embedding the concepts of adaptation and continuity into the planning, development,

maintenance and improvement programs of all the major rail infrastructure owners.

Climate change adaptation for Australia’s supporting infrastructure is a serious issue for both

industry and for government. Whilst the scale of the task is large, the risks associated with

inaction are considerable and potentially debilitating for some of Australia’s largest and most

profitable industries.


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About this report

The Rail Industry in Australia is committed to sustainability and as such has commissioned this

position paper on climate change adaptation. The paper has been developed through industry

consultation with major rail operators and infrastructure owners. This paper has also been peer

reviewed by Manidis Roberts Consultants.

The purpose of this report is to analyse the Rail industry’s vulnerabilities to climate change and

how these vulnerabilities may be managed into the future. This report outlinesas to the key

climate risks to rail infrastructure based on current climate change information and provides the

industry and government with a high-level view on where those vulnerabilities are and what

impact they could have on the industry and the economy.

The report provides recommendations for stakeholders to address these risks, provides a

common reference point for the rail industry on climate change data and other tools to be used

in organisation-level vulnerability assessments and outlines some of the current approaches to

infrastructure analysis and climate change adaptation assessments.

A detailed view of specific risks to key infrastructure and the implications for adaptation has

not been performed as part of this report. To date, no rail infrastructure organisation has

completed a full climate change adaptation vulnerability / risk assessment on their network

(however a number of assessments are planned or underway). Queensland Rail have recently

undertaken a geographically limited review of climate change adaptation risks in south east

Queensland, while other rail operators are also considering similar reviews.

The purpose of this report is to promote a basic framework for the Rail Industry in dealing

with climate change adaptation risks. The industry should consider extending the adaptation

effort to include detailed cost-benefit analysis of adapting specific and integral rail

infrastructure to ensure operational continuance in the event of climate hazards occurring

(see chapter 4).


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1. Why is adaptation planning important for rail

Adapting to future climate change is an important concept both on a national and global scale.

Both ecosystems and society will need to adapt to the new climatic conditions that global

warming will inevitably bring. Society will face significant challenges in adapting to global

warming. This is particularly true for those systems such as agriculture that are heavily

dependent on weather patterns. It also true for long-life infrastructure such as settlements or

cities and transport. Where a coal fired electricity plant may only have a effective life of 50-60

years, rail track well over 100 years old is still in operation in Australia and globally. Settlements

infrastructure such as sewage systems, bridges and buildings in many places around the world

are generations old. Assessing the risk of climate change on these assets and developing plans

to address these risks will become one of the most difficult challenges for both private sector

infrastructure owners and governments alike.

Adaptation to climate change in rail is important to both industry and government. Without

forward planning for adaption, the economy and the industry risk long delays in getting

important exports such as coal and iron ore to ports, major supply chain inefficiencies and

significant passenger disruption in large, population centres. Investment in climate change

adaptation should be considered a priority by both industry and government due to the

following reasons:

It is important to our economy: Rail transports more bulk iron ore and coal from mine to

port than any other mode of transport

Longevity: Rail infrastructure has an extremely long life where the full effects of climate

change will affect infrastructure already in place

Cost of mistakes: Getting the balance right between over-engineering and current

approaches is extremely important as cost implications for new works is significant

Industry suitability: There are only a small number of infrastructure owners and

stakeholders making the implementation of adaptation culture, technology and

processes less complex

Cost-benefit considerations: Rail has both public and private sector stakeholders. Where

public stakeholders are involved, the social benefits from adaptation will strengthen the


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cost benefit cases, improving the viability of safeguarding some of our most important

national assets

Climate change variables and rail infrastructure planning

For existing infrastructure, the industry’s approach is largely reactive with a proactive

component drawing in previous incidents as a guide to future incidents. Each owner has a long

term maintenance program which includes both preventative maintenance and an ‘events-

driven’ reactive maintenance process i.e. fixing faults, breakages etc. With regards to extreme

weather the general approach can be classified into the following three main courses of action.

Table 1 – Industry approach to extreme weather risk management

Event type Description Example Action

Repeat events Infrastructure is

affected by an

extreme event but

not damaged and

this causes a service

disruption

Fires causing

RailCorp’s South

Coast line

Water on track due

extreme rainfall

events

Decision is made to either upgrade

infrastructure or leave infrastructure

unchanged. Decision will be mainly

based on the frequency of events

experience (not forecasts due to lack of

data), the loss incurred through lack of

service and the cost of the upgrades

Damaged

infrastructure

Where a piece of

infrastructure is

damaged during an

extreme weather

event

Western Rail Line

(Queensland) near

Spring Bluff

Extreme Rainfal

Event

25m deep landslide

destroying track

Rebuild – decision to build to current

standards or to build to a new standard

intended to withstand extreme weather

event

Anticipated

event

Where an extreme

event is anticipated

and actions are

taken to avoid

damage

Maintaining fire

breaks and clear

areas around

stations

Some decisions will be made in

anticipation of events. Managing bushfire

hazards are one example of this practice.

However in general, this is not adopted

for flooding, cyclones, heatwaves or

storms as they are much more difficult to

predict and the cost of upgrading is

considerably higher

Due to the relative infrequency of extreme weather events, rail infrastructure risk planning and

maintenance has been more reactionary than precautionary. Scientific evidence linking climate


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change to increasingly severe weather events and a recent succession of unpredictably

destructive weather in Australia should provide a catalyst for this to change.

Rail in Australia

Australia’s economy relies heavily on our ability to leverage rail infrastructure, which accounts

for approximately 39% of the total freight task. Rail is of particular importance to transport of

bulk good such as coal and iron ore from the mine to the port where it is integral to almost all

export sales of these goods.

In our cities, 724.7 million passenger journeys were undertaken in 2008. Rail is an important

contributor to reducing congestion in our cities. A recent study by Deloitte Access Economics

estimated that each urban passenger journey would reduce congestion costs in our major cities

by between $2 and $7.

The North Coast line carries 11 million net tonnes of product annually, including containerised

freight, sugar, grain, minerals and cattle. In addition approximately 63% of Australia’s coal

exports are derived from Queensland mines, with 96% being exported from ports in cyclone

prone areas and being transported from the mine to the port via rail. More intense tropical

cyclones in this area of Australia, has the potential not only to impact the rail industry, but also

the mining industry. Black coal exports were worth approximately $43bn in 2010. It is the

second largest goods and services export in Australia.

Figure 1 – Coal exports by port (millions of tonnes, 09/10)


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Longevity of rail infrastructure

One of the major reasons why climate change is important to rail is that its infrastructure has an

extremely long life. Assets built today are required to operate for up to 100 years. According to

the analysis, the climate will change considerably in the next 100 years, and rail infrastructure

needs to account for that now.

One of the major difficulties with adapting rail infrastructure for climate change is the expected

life of these assets. In Australia we have rail track that is over 100 years old in some areas.

Flinders St Station which handles over 110,000 passengers per day, being the most used

metropolitan railway station in Australia was built in 1910.

Old track has been built to various standards as they evolved over a number of decades. The

track owners periodically maintain the track to current standards. No climate change

assumptions have been built into building standards to date. The predictions for climate change

include some significant increases in key variables over the next century with potential to

severely damage rail infrastructure. This is of particular concern to track owners as large

proportions of current track infrastructure are not expected to be replaced or materially

upgraded in the next 50-100 years.

Cost of mistakes

There is consensus by track owners that to build rail infrastructure that is more resilient to risks

associated with a changing climate will be considerably more expensive. Current engineering

standards and rainfall and runoff tables do not account for future changes in climate variables.

In some cases the financial benefits to track owners of this ‘over-engineering’ do not outweigh

the additional construction costs. This is compounded by the lack of accuracy (variable changes

and geographic impact) in data on climate change and extreme weather events (most

importantly flooding) that is not likely to satisfy the requirements of a financial business case.

Continuity and cost-benefit

Continuity is extremely important not only for rail industry, but also for those industries and

passengers that rely on rail services. A track owner may be able to sustain losses in the short

term due to an incident or extreme weather event, however small operators of organisations

that depend on rail may suffer significant damages to their operations.

In some competitive marketplaces where continuity of service and minimal service disruptions

can be a market differentiator, avoiding catastrophic risks such as extreme weather events may


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factor more significantly into the decision making process. However, in the delivery of rail

infrastructure in a highly regulated market, where operators drive for lower access fees and

passengers demand lower fares, the cost of managing extreme weather risks, in many cases,

does not have a strong financial case.

In extreme weather events, service disruptions also cause negative externalities on the local

economies through the loss of passenger mobility and goods transportation. These losses are

not usually quantified or included when business cases for developing or upgrading rail

infrastructure to account for extreme weather events are compiled.

IBISWorld estimate that lost revenue to rail during the Queensland floods in Jan 2011, to be

approximately $26m with a repair bill of over $1bn. The lost revenue to the mining industry was

over $2.5bn for that period due to weather affecting mining, rail and port infrastructure.


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2. Climate change: Getting the basics right

Australia’s climate is likely to change due to global warming. These changes will include higher

temperatures, altered rainfall patterns, higher sea levels and more frequent or intense extreme

events such as heatwaves, droughts, storms and cyclones. These changes will not be uniform

across Australia and will impact Australia’s regions and the rail industry in different ways.

The CSIRO has summarised the following key findings:

Australia is likely to become warmer, with uncertain rainfall changes in the north, and less

rainfall and more droughts in the south.

Heat waves and heavy rain events are likely to become more frequent worldwide, with less

snow, more fires, more heavy rainfall events and more intense cyclones.

Sea-ice and snow cover are projected to shrink.

Rainfall is very likely to increase in high latitudes and likely to decrease in most sub-tropical

and temperate land areas.

The area affected by droughts is likely to increase and tropical cyclones are likely to become

more intense.3

These projected changes from global warming are likely to impact the way we live over the next

century. Increased droughts will affect food production. Heavy rains will increase flooding

affecting housing and basic infrastructure. Sea level rise and storm surges will put low-lying

infrastructure and residential populations at risk.

Climate Variables

Estimates of future climate – usually called climate change projections or scenarios are very

important in assisting in identifying possible impacts of climate change on an area or project.

Climate change projections for Australia are developed by CSIRO from the International Panel

on Climate Change (IPCC) global climate change projections, which are based upon a range of

3 CSIRO website http://www.csiro.au/resources/Climate-Change-Continues.html


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computer-based models of global climate and future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.

Projections for climate change variables for 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100 are widely used. For

each of these future timeframes the projections cover three greenhouse gas emissions (GHG)

scenarios – High, Medium and Low.

In many instances State governments have also produced refined down-scaled or regional

catchment based projections. Because there are a range of uncertainties around these there

are varying levels of confidence regarding estimates of future trends in key climate parameters.

The nature, rate and extent of climate change will differ across a State or region and down-

scaled projections have a reduced range of uncertainty associated with them. Where possible

State produced catchment level projections should be used.

As a general guideline, the key climate variables (e.g. temperature, sea level rise etc) and

associated climate change impacts (e.g. increased storms, bushfire etc) are illustrated in the

following diagram Figure 5.

The relationship between a climate variable, the projection of change to the climate variable

and a climate change impact are illustrated in Figure X below.

Figure 6 Linkage between the climate change and risk


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Assessing vulnerability to current climatic variability will make it easier to consider how future

climate change might affect the project.

Assessing climate change impacts from climate change variables has it complexities as the

variable will impact differently across different regions and over time. Some impacts will have a

strong geographic variation, while others, such as heat waves, will be felt almost equally. Some

will have important implications for the location of various land uses (e.g. cyclones, storm surge,

flooding), whilst others will have less implications (e.g. increasing temperatures). For instance

the topography of the local area is an important factor influences the climate change variable –

sea level rise– particularly for low lying coastal areas and areas susceptible to flooding.

It is expected that some variables such as sea level will rise gradually over many years. Changes

to the natural environment such as species and ecosystems may be gradual as to be almost

imperceptible. Assessment will need to accommodate these gradual, incremental changes.

On the other hand the climate change impacts such as storms, cyclones and heat waves are

highly visible, sudden, and extreme events that require disaster planning. For example, the

assessment will need to take account of average climate changes, such as seasonal temperature

increases, as well as changes in extreme climatic conditions, such as heatwave events. While

extreme climatic events are by definition rare, they often have the most significant impacts.

Unfortunately, they are also difficult to predict, so information on climate extremes is more

uncertain.

Understanding how this variation applies is useful for making assessments and planning

effective adaptation measures.

Vulnerability

Vulnerability are important considerations in climate change impact assessment. Vulnerability

is a function of project’s sensitivity to climatic variability, the exposure to climate risk, and the

inherent capacity to adapt. It is helpful to identify how particular types of weather have affected

assets and services in the past, and what the consequences of those weather events were.

Where possible, critical thresholds will need to be identified, which when exceeded, brought

unacceptable losses or infrastructure breakdown – alternatively this could have opened up a

new opportunity. There is also a need to think about how much risk the client is prepared to

tolerate, as this will inform the extent of assessment and ultimate adaptation needed.


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Vulnerability to changes in mean climate may be less obvious, and therefore more difficult to

foresee than vulnerability to changes in climate extremes. Changes in the frequency and

magnitude of extreme values of climate variables are also more difficult to predict, and more

uncertain, than changes in mean values.

Risk Assessment

To date most climate change assessments have used the Australian Standard for Risk

Management AS 4360: 2004, recently replaced by AS/NZS ISO 310000-2009 Risk Management -

Principles and Guidelines risk management framework,. To guide this work the Australian

Greenhouse Office (AGO), now the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency

(DCCEE) has also developed a generic methodology based on the original risk standard AS 4360:

2004 for assessing climate change risks and developing an adaptation action plan (Climate

Change Impacts and Risk Management: A Guide for Business and Government, AGO 2006).

In the rail sector, changes to key climate variables are likely to impact rail track, overhead lines,

stations, bridges, yards, tunnels and other infrastructure. Likely causes of increased risk will be

increased flooding, storm surges, cyclones, heatwaves and bushfires. To adapt to these changes

in climate variables, Australia’s rail industry and government need to understand how they are

expected to change over the 50-100 years. It also will need to agree to a common set of

assumptions to be used by the industry in developing approaches to adaptation.

It is important for the rail industry to agree on various common parameters and assumptions to

be used in climate change adaptation assessments. This will enable more effective national level

analysis and prioritisation of adaptation activities.

Developing a common set of climate assumptions for the rail industry to use is complicated by

the following key issues which will be outlined in this section:

Multiple scenarios: The IPCC has developed multiple global scenarios that are based on

assumptions on population growth, predominant energy sources, global

interconnectivity etc. Each model has different resulting degrees of global warming.

Multiple models: When developing the IPCC 4th Assessment Report, climate scientists

utilised data from 23 different climate change models. Each of these models address


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different combinations of variables. In addition no scenario and model should be

analysed for more than one variable4.

Diversity of Australian Climate: Australia is a large country with considerable

differences in climate from region to region. These range from tropical and semi-

tropical regions in the north to enormous regions of arid land in the centre and west of

Australia.

Table of variables: Rail infrastructure will be affected by changes in a number of climate

variables. These variables have interdependencies and also have the potential to affect

different types of rail infrastructure in various ways.

Changing nature of climate science: Climate science is constantly being updated with

more up to date data (climate variables are constantly monitored) and up to date

models. Difficulties arise in developing static assumptions to be used in decision making

for long life assets.

4 www.ozclim.csiro.au


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3. Climate risk assessments and adaptation planning

This paper suggests using the following climate parameters for the purposes of climate risk

assessments and adaptation planningl. As climate science and data is being constantly updated,

these should be viewed as point in time recommendations. They should be reviewed

periodically as new data is released through the IPCC, CSIRO and other notable scientific

organisations. These assumptions are outlined in more detail in this section of the report.

Key adaptation assessment climate assumptions:

1. Climate Scenario: A1F1 - rapid economic growth, global population reaching 9 billion

then gradually declines, income and way of life converging between countries and

regions and emphasis on fossil fuels

2. Data:

a. Climate Change in Australia – Technical Report 2007 (CSIRO / BoM)

b. OzClim – Climate Change Scenario Generator (CSIRO)

c. Engineers Australia – Rainfall and Runoff Revision Report (due 2014 – although

some information may be available sooner)

3. Variables

Primary variables

a. Increased precipitation

b. Increased average temperature

c. Changing patterns of humidity

d. Increased incidence of extreme weather events

Secondary variables that are dependent on primary variables

a. Fire danger index

b. Storm surges and storms tide

c. Flooding, drought condition, wind, storms, extreme heat

Climate modelling and scenarios

All climate models are developed using baseline scenarios developed by the IPCC. Climate

Change in Australia (BOM and CSIRO, 2007) developed a series predictions for 23 climate

variables, utilised 23 climate models and six climate scenarios (IPCC 2007 Scenarios). This


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analysis is contained in the Climate Change in Australia 2007 Technical Report. The scenarios

outlined represent the main scenarios used in policy analysis:

1. A1 – More integrated world:

rapid economic growth

global population reaching 9 billion then gradually declines

quick spread of new and efficient technologies

income and way of life converging between countries and regions

2. A1B – As above with a balanced emphasis on fossil and non-fossil energy sources

3. A1F1 – As above with emphasis on fossil fuels

4. B1 - world more integrated, and more ecologically friendly.

Rapid economic growth as in A1, but with rapid changes towards a service and

information economy.

Population rising to 9 billion in 2050 and then declining as in A1.

Reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient

technologies.

An emphasis on global solutions to economic, social and environmental

stability.

The other scenarios include heavy reliance on alternative energy (A1T and B2) and a divergent

world (A2 and B2). They are not outlined in Table 3.

There is no mandated position on which climate scenario to use when attempting to analyse

climate variables. A recent study into inland flooding in Queensland concluded the A1F1

scenario should be used. This was on the basis that emissions are tracking at above the rates in

this scenario (a high emissions scenario)5. It is suggested that the rail industry adopt this

approach on this basis.

Climate change data in Australia

Based on the assumptions and overall global forecasts contained in the Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report and various other recognised global

climate forecasting models the CSIRO, other research agencies and government departments

have committed considerable resources to forecasting climate change impact.

5 Increasing Queensland’s resilience to inland flooding in changing climate: Final Scientific Advisory Group report


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It is suggested that the rail industry use the data prepared by the CSIRO and BoM as presented

in the Climate Change in Australia – Technical Report and OzClim.

It is suggested that the rail industry also use the data prepared by the relevant State agencies.

Where the data differs should be highlighted and provides critical sensitivity analysis for the

projections.

Other national and state based guidelines and standards should also be referenced such as for

flooding projections essential input will be the Engineers Australia Rainfall and Runoff Report

when it is made available. See relevant state agencies for advice on the most recent guidance

material.

It should be noted that the availability of granular data varies significantly between sources,

and in many

Table 2 - Key Australian climate change data sources

Data source Description

Climate Change in Australia –

Technical Report 2007

CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology technical paper and data on climate change

impacts in Australia.

OzClim – Climate Change Scenario Generator

An online climate change scenario developer. It allows users to : generate climate change scenarios

explore climate scenarios from 2020 to 2100

be guided through the process of generating your own climate scenarios

download maps and projections data for non-commercial research

Engineers Australia – Revised

Rainfall and Runoff report

(not yet available)

Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR) is a national guideline document for the

estimation of design flood characteristics in Australia. The current 1987/1999 is now

being revised and updated with new data including climate change projections.

Indian Ocean Climate

Initiative

A partnership of the State, CSIRO, and the Bureau of Meteorology, formed by the

Western Australian Government to support informed decision-making, on climate

variability and change in WA. Research is themed into the following categories:

WA climate baseline

Current and future climate of north-west WA

Very high resolution climate projections for South-West WA

NSW Climate impact Profile

Future climate information on NSW State Plan regions, covering the likely changes in

climate, including:


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Data source Description

temperature, rainfall and evaporation by 2050

physical consequences of these climate changes (rise in sea level and changes

in run-off, flooding behaviour and fire regimes), and

the subsequent impacts of projected climate change and associated changes in

physical processes on:

lands (soils and soil processes)

– settlements (storm and flood damage),and

ecosystems (biological communities, individual species and ecological

processes).

Queensland Office of Climate

Change

Various climate change adaptation publications and case studies on adaptation

planning and strategies

Queensland Department of

Environment and Resources

Coastal Plan

The Plan provides guidance on climate hazard assessments and mitigation strategies

as it relates to the changing coastal environment.

Increasing Queensland’s

resilience to inland flooding

in a changing climate: Final

Scientific Advisory Report

Scientific study into the climate parameters that Queensland’s policy makers should

be using in relation to inland flooding. Main findings were:

an increase in rainfall intensity is likely

the available scientific literature indicates this increased rainfall intensity to be

in the range of 3–10% per degree of global warming

more detailed analysis is required to firmly establish such a figure and this

work will be undertaken as part of the review of Australian Rainfall and Runoff.

Climate Futures for Tasmania Climate change projections at a local scale for Tasmania. Is based on detailed

modelling using dynamic downscaling from the global climate model to 10km

simulations using the CSIRO’s Conformal Cubic Atmosphere Model (CCAM)

Tasmania has undertaken one of the most detailed downscaling of climate models in

Australia.

South Australian Research

and Development Institute’s

Regional Climate Change

Projections

Regional projections for various climate variables in South Australia. No additional

downscaling (using Climate Change In Australia – Technical Report 2007 as basis).

Table 2 is an example of the level of detail contained in the Climate Change in Australia –

Technical Report 2007. The data is for scenarios A1B, B1 and A1F1 and in a low (10th percentile),

most likely (50th percentile) and high (90th percentile) range.


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Table 3 - Climate Change in Australia variable prediction under climate scenarios A1B, B1, A1F1 for Sydney, NSW

Variable Season 2030 A1B 10

th

2030 A1B 50

th

2030 A1B 90

th

2070 B1 10

th

2070 B1 50

th

2070 B1 90

th

2070 A1F1 10

th

2070 A1F1 50

th

2070 A1F1 90

th

Temperature

(ºC) Increases

Annual 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.6 2.2 2.1 3.0 4.3

Summer 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.6 2.5 2.1 3.1 4.7

Autumn 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.0 1.5 2.3 1.9 3.0 4.3

Winter 0.6 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.4 1.9 1.8 2.4 3.7

Spring 0.7 1.0 1.5 1.2 1.7 2.5 2.2 3.3 4.8

NO. of days over

35ºC (currently

3.5)

Annual 4.1 4.4 5.1 4.5 5.3 6.6 6.0 8.2 12.0

Rainfall (%) Annual -9 -3 +3 -14 -4 +5 -25 -8 +10

Summer -7 +1 +9 -12 +1 +14 -21 +2 +28

Autumn -10 -2 +6 -16 -3 +11 -29 -6 +21

Winter -15 -5 +4 -23 -9 +6 -40 -16 +12

Spring -16 -6 +4 -25 -9 +6 -44 -17 +12

Potential

Evaporation (%)

Annual +2 +3 +5 +3 +5 +8 +5 +9 +15

Summer +1 +3 +5 +2 +5 +8 +4 +9 +15

Autumn +2 +4 +6 +3 +6 +11 +7 +12 +20

Winter +2 +5 +9 +3 +8 +15 +6 +16 +20

Spring 0 +2 +4 0 +3 +7 +1 +6 +13

Wind Speed (%) Annual -5 0 +4 -8 0 +6 -15 -1 +12

Summer -5 +3 +11 -9 +4 +19 -16 +8 +36

Autumn -9 -2 +4 -14 -3 +7 -27 -5 +14

Winter -7 -1 +5 -12 -2 +8 -23 -3 +16

Spring -8 0 +6 -14 -1 +10 -26 -1 +19

Relative

Humidity (%)

Annual -1.3 -0.4 +0.4 -2.1 -0.6 +0.7 -4.0 -1.2 +1.3

Solar Radiation

(%)

Annual -1.0 +0.3 +1.9 -1.6 +0.5 +3.1 -3.2 +0.9 +6.0

Climate variables

Most analysis has focussed on variables such as average temperature increases and average

rainfall increases. These are modelled and available for Australia as part of the OzClim project.

Data for other variables including relative humidity, solar radiation, sea surface temperatures,

wind speed change and potential evaporation is also available.


23


The highlighted variables in Table 3 will impact rail infrastructure. Table 3 also details how the

various climate change variables have been modelled / analysed to form projections for the

Australian climate and what projection timeframes are currently available for each variable.

Table 4 - Climate Change in Australia - Availability of modelling and forecasts for variables

Variable Year Models Scenarios 2030 2050 2070

Average Temperature* X X X 23 {all in Table 4.1} 6

Hot days X X 23 {all in Table 4.1} A1B, B1, A1F1,

Warm nights X X x 9 {4,7,8,13,14,16,19,21,20} A2,A1B,B1

Extreme temperature host x 10{2,4,5,7,8,11,14,16,18,19} and downscaling A2,B1

Average Precipitation x x x 23{all in Table 4.1} 6

Precipitation intensity x x x 9 {4,7,8,13,14,16,19,21,20} A2,A1B,B1

Dry days x x x 9 {4,7,8,13,14,16,19,21,20} A2,A1B,B1

Extreme daily precipitation

x 13{2,3,4,5,7,9,12,13,14,15,17,18,19,20,21} B1,A1B,A1F1

Snow x 9 {a} B1, A1F1

Relative humidity* x x X 14{2,3,5,6,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,19,20} 6

Solar radiation* x x x 20{1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10,11,12,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23

6

Potential evaporation x x x 14{2,3,5,6,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,19,20} 6

Drought x x 2{0} B1,A1F1

Average wind* x x x 19{2,3,4,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,22,23}

6

Extreme daily wind 4 {7,13,18,19}

Fire x 2 {5,6} B1,A1F1

Sea level rise Literature review

Ocean thermal expansion x x x 17{1,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,14,15,16,17,18,19,22,23} A1B

Oceanic storm surges Literature review

Sea surface temperature* x x x 12 {2,3,5,9,10,11,13,17,19,21,22,23} 6

Ocean acidification x 1{5} A2

East Australian Current Literature review

Tropical Cyclones x x 1 {5} and downscaling (RAMS) A2

Tornadoes Literature review

Hall X x 1{5} A2

East coast laws Literature review

ENSO 1{5} B1,A1B1A2

Southern Annular Mode Literature review

Southern storm tracks Literature review


24


How Australia’s climate will change

``Key vulnerabilities and exposure for rail assets to climate change (ASRC 2009)

Hazard Vulnerability Exposure

Increase in extreme rainfall (flooding)

Inundation of assets.

Track and other infrastructure integrity.

Electrical inundation and failure.

Isolated staff and commuters.

Landsides.

Low lying track and electrical equipment.

Stabling yards.

Level crossings.

Low lying and inundation prone stations.

Multiple points of network cut off.

Inland inundation from sea level rise (SLR)

Reduction in track integrity.

Asset inundation.

Asset, staff and community isolation.

Storm drain inundation.

Permanent low lying coastal and inland asset inundation.

Advanced corrosion of infrastructure.

Temporary inundation of low-lying assets (storm surge).

Increase in frequency and severity of heat waves

Track buckling.

Power integrity (brownout and blackout).

Commuters and staff.

Transmission line feed in from high impact point of temperature rise.

Solar radiation impacts on a variety of assets, staff and commuters.

Climate change and extreme weather events

The difficulty for climate risk assessment and adaptation planning in infrastructure is that most

important variables relate to extreme weather events and not average temperature or rainfall

increases. The inherent complexity in predicting extreme weather events is in the fact that they

are not caused by one single factor. Whilst there is data relating to number of days expected

above 35ºC, forecasts for other information such as flooding, extreme storms and extreme wind

events are not yet readily available. There are however some estimates published by the

Australian Government and the CSIRO that may assist the rail industry to understand any

increases in risk as a result of climate change. In some case detailed and recent climate

modelling and or impact modelling, such as flooding, can be sourced from State agencies or

research bodies such as the Bushfire CRC. Where available this modelling should be accessed

and cross-referenced to provide greater confidence in the assessment results. This will be

particularly important for assets and services in areas thought to be particularly vulnerable to

known current climatic conditions.

Extreme temperature events


25


Extreme temperature events are measured in days per year, over or under certain temperature

thresholds. In Australia, with relevance to rail, the key concern is extremely high temperature

days, where tracks can buckle and/or mechanical or electrical systems can fail. A recent

example where this occurred was during Melbourne’s heatwaves in January 2009 where several

tracks experience some buckling, causing delays and urgent remediation.

Table 5 - expected number of days over 35ºC for major Australian cities.

Variable Current number

2030 A1B 10

th

2030 A1B 50

th

2030 A1B 90

th

2070 B1 10

th

2070 B1 50

th

2070 B1 90

th

2070 A1F1 10

th

2070 A1F1 50

th

2070 A1F1 90

th

Sydney 3.5 4.1 4.4 5.1 4.5 5.3 6.6 6.0 8.2 12.0

Melbourne 9.1 10.6 11.4 12.8 11.9 13.6 16.8 15.4 19.8 25.9

Brisbane 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.1 3.0 4.6 4.0 7.6 20.6

Perth 28.1 33.1 35.3 38.7 36.2 40.5 46.2 44.1 53.8 67.4

Adelaide 17 21.3 23 25.5 24 26.4 30.6 28.9 35.6 46.6

Canberra 5.4 6.9 7.9 9.9 8.1 10.5 13.0 11.8 16.9 24.7

Darwin 10.8 27.9 44.0 68.8 49.0 89.4 153.1 140.6 226.8 308.3

Hobart 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.4 3.4

Further data on regional areas is available through the www.climatechangeinaustralia.com.au.

This data should be used as the basis of any risk analysis on the effect of extreme temperature

on rail infrastructure6.

Extreme rainfall events (flooding)

Most floods in Australia are a result of extreme sustained rainfall or coastal storm surges caused

by severe sea storms or tropical cyclones. Flooding can affect rail infrastructure in the following

ways:

Water covering tracks

Track damage and landslides

Overhead line damage

Bridge log jams and damage

Electrical damage to control units and switches

Yard damage

6 It is understood that the temperature threshold of 35ºC may not be the right threshold for rail applications. Climate

projections are improving rapidly and information on high thresholds may become available through CSIRO, BOM or other organisations


26


Station damage

Flood risk is typically based on analysis of past historical data. Organisations usually make

infrastructure decisions based on historical data and flood modelling if available. Key indicators

include Annual Exceedence Probability (AEP) and often a risk of 1% AEP (i.e. there is a 1%

chance that a flood of this size will occur every year). Climate change analysis has concluded

that the size of the 1% AEP will be increased from its current level due to global warming.

The magnitude of the increases and their impact on flooding on a region-by-region basis may be

slightly more difficult to forecast. The main source of flooding data is the Engineers Australia

Rainfall and Runoff data and flood frequency analysis methodology. This report however has not

been updated for 23 years and does not account for any climate changes due to global warming.

Currently this it being updated, however it will not be available until 2014. It will include

consideration for climate change and the resulting impact on rainfall levels in different parts of

the country7.

Climate Change in Australia have modelled the high level indicator, daily precipitation intensity

(rain per rain day).

An increase in daily precipitation intensity (rain per

rain day) and the number of dry days is likely.

Extreme daily precipitation (highest 1%) tends to

increase in the north and decrease in the south with

widespread increases in summer and autumn, but not

in the south in winter and spring where there is a

strong decrease in mean precipitation”

Following the Queensland floods in January 2011, the Queensland government commissioned a

report titled Increasing Queensland’s resilience to inland flooding in a changing climate: Final

report on the Inland Flooding Study. It concluded that policy makers in Queensland should use

a 5 per cent increase in rainfall intensity for each degree of global warming. This should be

7 Engineers Australia, Australian Rainfall and Runoff, Revision Projects and Document Updating

Figure 2 - 2080-2099 minus 1980-199 in precipitation intensity (mm.day) for the A1B scenario (Climate Change in Australia - Technical Report 2007)


27


incorporated into the Q100, Q200 and Q500 AEP. This should also be updated as soon as the

Engineers Australia Annual Rainfall and Runoff Revision Project is finalised.


28


Sea level rise

Sea level is almost certain to rise between now and 2100. Global estimates range from 18cm to

59cm. Some CSIRO analysis has indicated that sea levels along the east coast may rise by an

additional 10cm over the global average due to the strengthening of the East Australian Current.

Table 6 - IPCC Fourth Assessment Report estimates of global Average sea level rise by 2100, Relative to 1990(from IPCC (2007a) Table SPM-3} for six IPCC emissions scenarios.

Emissions scenario Central estimate Estimate range

B1 28 cm 18-38 cm

A1T 33 cm 20-45 cm

B2 32 cm 20-43 cm

A1B 35 cm 21-48 cm

A2 37 cm 23-51 cm

A1F1 43 cm 26-59 cm

Sea level rise may impact track and yards that service ports. Australia has several of these low

lying sections of rail, the majority of which carry bulk cargo such as coal and iron ore for export.

Sea level rise, combined with increases in storm surges will have a significantly detrimental

effect on rail infrastructure.

Storm surge and storm tide

“A storm surge is a rise above the normal water level along a shore that is the result of strong

onshore winds and / or reduced atmospheric pressure. Storm surges accompany a tropical

cyclone as it comes ashore. They may also be formed by intense low-pressure systems in non-

tropical areas” Bureau of Meteorology.

Storm surges are most damaging when combined with high tides. These are often called storm

tides. Recent storm surges occurred during cyclone Yasi in north Queensland and caused

significant damage to the city through flooding and inundation.


29


Climate change impacts such as increases in storm intensity and sea level rises have the

potential to increase these storm surge inundations across Australia. Two recent studies,

outlined in Climate Change in Australia – Technical Report 2007 reinforces this view.

Table 7 - 100-year return levels of storm tides for selected locations along the eastern Victorian coast under current climate and 2030 and 2070 low, mid and high scenarios for wind speed and sea level rise as given in Table 5.10 {from McInnes et al. 2005n}.

Location Current Climate

2030 2070

Low Mid High Low Mid High (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) (m)

Port Welshpool

1.65 1.67 1.75 1.84 1.69 1.92 2.21

Port Franklin 1.87 1.88 1.98 2.07 1.90 2.15 2.48

Port Albert 1.75 1.77 1.87 1.96 1.79 2.04 2.36

Lakes Entrance

0.98 1.00 1.09 1.17 1.02 1.25 1.56

Metung 0.59 0.61 0.70 0.78 0.63 0.86 1.16

Paynesville 0.35 0.37 0.45 0.53 0.40 0.61 0.88

The inundation produced by the top 5% of

storm surge simulations (100-year return

period and greater) under current climate

conditions and conditions assuming a 10%

increase in tropical cyclone intensity by 2050.

The road network of Cairns is shown in black to

highlight the urban impact of the inundation

(Source: McInnes et al 2003)

Storm surges can have a devastating impact on rail infrastructure, particularly yard and tracks

close to ports in Queensland and Western Australia where tropical cyclones are more prevalent.

Figure 3 – Cairns storm surge example


30


Cyclones

There is likely to be an increase in the proportions of cyclones in the more intense categories,

but a possible decrease in the total number of cyclones (Climate Change in Australia – Technical

Report 2007). A recent CSIRO study indicated that the number of tropical cyclones would

decrease by 44% and 9% in Western Australia and Eastern Australia respectively. It also showed

that a 140% increase in storm intensity of the most severe storms by 2070 was likely. The study

also indicated a shift in latitude for these storms of approximately 105km south was also likely.

Simulated change in annual average

tropical cyclone occurrence in the

Australian region for 40-year time slices

centred on 2030 and 2070. Blue regions

indicated a decrease in tropical cyclone

occurrence and red region indicate an

increase in occurrence. Results are from

CCAM Mark3 simulations forces with the

SRES A2 scenario presented in Abbs et al

2006. (Source: Climate Change in

Australia – Technical Report 2007)

Topical cyclones can be extremely destructive to rail infrastructure. In January 2011, Cyclone

Yasi caused significant damage to tracks, signals and signage from Townsville to Cairns (the

North Coast line). This line was closed for 24 days following the cyclone.

Figure 4 – Changes in cyclone patterns


31


Bushfire risk

“A substantial increase in fire weather risk is likely at most sites in south-eastern Australia.

Such a risk may exist elsewhere in Australia, but this has yet to be examined” Climate Change

in Australia – Technical Report 2007.

In certain areas of Australia the risk of bushfires affecting services and damaging critical rail

infrastructure will increase. In many of these areas, bushfire risk is taken into account, however

this significant increase in risk in some areas may require some actions such as fuel reduction,

development of fire breaks, additional equipment at stations and/or increased site

maintenance.

Table 8 - Annual average number of days when the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFD) rating is very high or extreme under present conditions {1974-2003} and for the years 2020 and 2050 for locations in south-east Australia

8 using CSIRO CCAM Mark 3 model

Site Present 2020 low 2020 high 2050 low 2050 high

Canberra 23.1 26.0 28.6 28.9 38.3

Bourke 69.5 73.9 80.3 80.6 98.2

Cabramurra 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.0

Cobar 81.8 86.6 92.8 93.0 108.6

Coffs Harbour 4.4 4.7 5.6 5.6 7.6

Nowra 13.4 14.2 15.6 15.6 19.9

Richmond 11.5 13.1 14.3 14.4 19.1

Sydney 8.7 9.5 11.1 11.3 15.2

Wagga 49.6 52.8 57.4 57.7 71.9

Wildertown 16.4 17.3 19.4 19.4 23.6

Bendigo 17.8 19.7 21.9 22.00 29.8

Laverton 15.5 16.6 17.8 17.8 22.3

Melbourne 9.0 9.8 11.1 11.2 14.7

Mildura 79.5 84.6 90.7 90.9 107.3

Sade 8.7 9.6 10.7 10.8 14.0

Hobart 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5

Launceston 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.9 3.1

8 The low and high values for each year reflect the low and high IPCC {2001} global warming values for that year.

{Source: Hennessy et al.2006.}


32


4. Further actions

This initial analysis is the first step in adaptation planning for the rail industry. To succeed in

future proofing critical infrastructure, the industry will need to drive a long-term programme of

activities aimed at mitigating a select group of important risks. This will require extensive

consultation and assistance from Government, climate scientists, research organisations, rail

operators and customers. It will involve embedding the concepts of adaptation and continuity

into the planning, development, maintenance and improvement programs of all the major rail

infrastructure owners.

Alternatively, the rail industry may decide to plan and adapt to climate change at the

organisational level with little cooperation between companies. This approach allows each

individual organisation to develop plans for adaptation including approaching government

stakeholders for additional funding if required.

This section outlines an approach based on industry-wide collaboration on climate change

adaptation.

Table 9 - Overview of possible future adaptation actions for rail industry

Stage Description

1. Agree level of commonality in climate change adaptation approaches at organisational level

Confirm industry acceptance regarding plan for climate change and agree on key assumptions to be used in organisational level analysis:

Climate change scenario

Climate change variables and data sources

Risks to be considered (minimum).

2. Confirm climate assumptions with key Australian research organisations

Industry to meet with CSIRO, BoM and Engineers Australia to confirm the climate change assumptions and data to be used in organisational risk assessments.

3. Undertake organisational level risk assessments

Infrastructure organisations to undertake internal risk assessment using the common key assumptions, AS/NZS ISO 31000 and the draft Standards Australia standard Climate change adaptation for settlements and infrastructure (DR AS 5334).

Organisation should ensure that adaptation plans are developed for high risk areas and that those plans are costed within a range of costs and benefits.


33


Stage Description

4. Collate industry wide comprehensive risk analysis of critical rail infrastructure

Gather selected information from rail infrastructure organisations on high-risk infrastructure. Collate information and confirm costs and benefits of adaptation.

5. Form working group comprised of industry and government

Form an industry/government (State and Commonwealth) working group to guide the evaluation and prioritisation of adaptation plans and oversee their implementation.

6. Develop national program of works with industry and government program management responsibilities

Working group to oversee the development of a national program of works, with program and funding timeline.

7. Undertake program of works

Adaptation activities to be managed by each individual infrastructure owner and reported on to Working group.

8. Monitor and review of program

Develop process for ongoing monitoring of progress through the working group and independent reviews schedule.

1. Agree level of commonality in climate change adaptation approaches at

organisational level

The industry should agree to certain level of commonality in relation to climate change context,

key risks and overall approaches organisational level climate change adaptation risks

assessments / vulnerability assessments. This will ensure that any attempt in the future to

analyse critical risks to transport infrastructure by the industry or government, can be

completed without major rework of organisational level analysis and outputs.

f. Climate scenario: Scenario to be used is A1F1 (see Section 2 for more details)

g. Variables consider as a minimum: Extreme temperature events

viii. Extreme rainfall events (flooding)

ix. Sea level rise

x. Storm surge and storm tide

xi. Storms

xii. Cyclones

xiii. Fire danger index

h. Data sources (see Table Table 10 for more details):

iv. Climate change in Australia – Technical report 2007

v. OzClim

vi. Engineers Australia Annual Rainfall and Runoff (Revised version due 2012)


34


i. Minimum Risks to be analysed (this is not a comprehensive list but only the minimum to

be agreed on):

Table 10 – Minimum risk guidance

Variable Risk Infrastructure categories

Extreme rainfall events

Increased flood damage Track (including culverts), signalling, overhead, bridges, tunnels, rail yards, stations

Increase in lost services due to water covering tracks or low adhesion

Track (including culverts), signalling, overhead, , tunnels, rail yards, stations

Increases in landslides Track bridges, tunnels

Extreme temperature events Increased track buckling Track (including culverts)

Sea level rise Increased flood damage

Track (including culverts), signalling, overhead, bridges, tunnels, rail yards, stations

Storm surge and storm tide Increased flood damage Track (including culverts), signalling, overhead, bridges, tunnels, rail yards, stations

Storms

Increased wind/lightening damage

Overheads

Increases in debris delaying services

Track, overheads

Cyclones


Increased wind/lightening damage

Track (including culverts), signalling, overhead, bridges, tunnels, rail yards, stations

Increases in debris delaying services

Track, overheads

Bushfires

Increased fire damage Track (including culverts), signalling, overhead, bridges, tunnels, rail yards, stations

Increases to fires or smoke

delaying services

N/A


35


2. Confirm climate data and assumptions

Industry to meet with CSIRO, BoM and Engineers Australia to confirm the climate change

assumptions and data to be used in organisational vulnerability assessments. Research

organisations requested to comment on approach and provide suggestions on the use of

climate data and assumptions

3. Undertake organisational level risk assessments

All infrastructure owners are planning to or are already undertaking a climate change

adaptation risk/vulnerability assessment for their networks. Infrastructure owners are

encouraged to undertake these assessments according to their own internal risk

management approaches with the following considerations:

Utilise the minimum assumptions as outlined in the report. They relate to:

Climate change scenario

Minimum variables to consider

Main data sources to be utilised

Minimum risks to be analysed and assessed

Align programs with draft Standards Australia standard Climate change adaptation for

settlements and infrastructure (DR AS 5334).

4. Ensure that adaptation plans are developed for high risk areas and that those plans are

costed within a range of costs and benefits.

5. Involve scientific advice where possible and feasible. The science around climate

change is constantly changing. Currently it is one of the most heavily researched areas

in the scientific community. Eminent organisations such as CSIRO and BOM are

updating their research on a continual basis. In addition various scientific advisory

groups are being created nationwide, performing targeted research on particular

climate change variables and regions9.

9 For an example, see the Increasing Queensland’s resilience to inland flooding in a changing climate: Final Scientific

Advisory Group report


36


6. Form working group comprised of industry, State and Commonwealth

stakeholders

It is widely accepted that adaptation planning for large infrastructure networks requires a

holistic approach. The combination of national interest, significant interdependencies

between operators and the scale of adaptation that may be necessary, requires a

nationwide approach to reviewing the climate change induced vulnerabilities in rail.

To facilitate this, a specific working group should be commissioned to guide a nationwide

approach to adaptation planning for rail. This group should be comprised of industry,

government (both State and Commonwealth) and eminent researchers in climate change

and adaptation.

The working group’s objective should be to guide the development and implementation of

a national approach climate change adaptation for Australia’s Rail network.

7. Collate industry wide comprehensive risk analysis of critical rail

infrastructure

Leveraging each individual climate change adaptation infrastructure risk assessment, the

working group should oversee the collation of these assessments into a National Climate

Change Adaptation Assessment for Rail Infrastructure. This report would include:

1. Detailed risk assessment identifying specific track locations, stations, bridges etc. that

are considered above a predetermined risk threshold

2. Adaptation plans for these ‘at risk’ infrastructure including:

a. Costs and benefits (both financial and economic)

b. Timing

c. Interdependencies

d. Funding propositions

e. Key assumptions

3. Prioritised schedule of adaptation activities

8. Develop national program of works with industry and government program

management responsibilities

Infrastructure owners to develop detailed adaptation plans for specific infrastructure in

partnership with the working group. The adaptation plans should include:


37


1. Justification for selecting an option

2. Key assumptions

3. Accountabilities and responsibilities

4. Infrastructure remediation/action description

5. Detailed costs and benefits schedule including resource requirements

6. Key performance indicators

7. Reporting and review process

8. Detailed project plan

9. Undertake program of works

Organisations to undertake adaptation actions and report regularly to the working group

on progress. This stage is highly dependent on the types of adaptation activities that are

chosen to be undertaken.

10. Monitor and review of program

It is better practice for potentially large program of works with public and private

stakeholders to have rigorous monitoring, review and evaluation process. This process may

include:

An independent program risk advisor

Mid term project review

Checkpoint/milestone reviews

Post-implementation review


38


References

Australian Green Infrastructure Council (AGIC), AGIC guidelines for climate change adaptation,

2010,

http://www.agic.net.au/agic_climate_change_adaptation_guideline_for_infrastructure.pdf

CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation), 2007: Climate change in

Australia – Technical report 2007,

http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.com.au/technical_report.php

CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation), 2011, Ozclim: Climate

scenario generator, http://www.csiro.au/ozclim/home.do

Clark A, Barratt D, Munro B, Sims J, Laughlin G, Poulter D, 2006, Climate change: Adaptation in

agriculture, Australian Government, Bureau of Rural Sciences and Department of Agriculture,

Fisheries and Forestry

Council of Australian Governments, 2010, Commonwealth national climate change adaptation

Ffamework, http://www.coag.gov.au/coag_meeting_outcomes/2007-04-

13/docs/national_climate_change_adaption_framework.pdf

Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, 2011, Climate change risks to coastal

buildings and infrastructure: A supplement to the first pass national assessment,

http://www.climatechange.gov.au/~/media/publications/coastline/riskscoastalbuildings.pdf

Garnaut, A, 2011, The Garnaut review 2011: Australia in the global response to climate change ,

http://www.garnautreview.org.au/update-2011/garnaut-review-2011/summary-20June.pdf

Government of South Australia, South Australian Research and Development Institute (SARDI),

2010, Regional climate change projections, http://www.sardi.sa.gov.au/climate/publications

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007, IPCC fourth assessment report:

Climate change 2007,

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.shtml

Network Rail, 2010, Interim climate change adaptation report,

http://www.ukcip.org.uk/wordpress/wp-content/PDFs/RP_Network_Rail.pdf

NSW Government – Department of Water and Energy, 2008, Future climate and runoff

predictions (-2030) for New South Wales and Australian Capital Territory,

http://www.water.nsw.gov.au/Water-management/Modelling/Climate-change/Climate-

change/default.aspx

Queensland Office for Climate Change, 2010, Climate Change in Queensland: What the science is

telling us, http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/climate-change-in-queensland-2010.pdf

http://www.agic.net.au/agic_climate_change_adaptation_guideline_for_infrastructure.pdf

http://www.coag.gov.au/coag_meeting_outcomes/2007-04-13/docs/national_climate_change_adaption_framework.pdf

http://www.coag.gov.au/coag_meeting_outcomes/2007-04-13/docs/national_climate_change_adaption_framework.pdf

http://www.climatechange.gov.au/~/media/publications/coastline/riskscoastalbuildings.pdf

http://www.garnautreview.org.au/update-2011/garnaut-review-2011/summary-20June.pdf

http://www.sardi.sa.gov.au/climate/publications

http://www.ukcip.org.uk/wordpress/wp-content/PDFs/RP_Network_Rail.pdf

http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/climate-change-in-queensland-2010.pdf


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Queensland Government, 2011, Increasing Queensland’s resilience to inland flooding in a

changing climate: Final report on the inland flooding study,

http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/inlandfloodstudy.pdf

Queensland Government, 2011, Increasing Queensland’s resilience to inland flooding in a

changing climate: Final Scientific Advisory Group (SAG) report – Derivation of rainfall intensity

figure to inform an effective interim policy approach to managing inland flooding risks in a

changing climate, http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/sag-report.pdf

Rail Safety and Standards Board, 2010, Tomorrow’s railway and climate change adaptation:

Phase 1 report,

http://www.rssb.co.uk/SiteCollectionDocuments/pdf/reports/Research/T925_rpt_phase1.pdf

Standards Australia, Climate change adaptation for settlements and infrastructure (draft), 2011

Steffen, W, 2009, Climate change 2009: Faster change and & more serious risks, Department of

Climate Change, http://www.climatechange.gov.au/~/media/publications/science/cc-

faster_change.pdf

UK Climate Impacts Program (UKCIP), 2004 Costing the impacts of climate change:

Implementation report, http://www.ukcip.org.uk/wordpress/wp-

content/PDFs/Costings_Implementation.pdf

UK Climate Impacts Program (UKCIP), 2003, Climate adaptation: Risk, uncertainty and decision-

making, http://www.ukcip.org.uk/wordpress/wp-content/PDFs/Risk.pdf

Westra, S, 2011, Implications of climate change on flood estimation (discussion paper),

Engineers Australia,

http://www.ncwe.org.au/arr/Website_links/CC_Workshop_DiscussionPaper_Final.pdf

http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/inlandfloodstudy.pdf

http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/sag-report.pdf

http://www.rssb.co.uk/SiteCollectionDocuments/pdf/reports/Research/T925_rpt_phase1.pdf

http://www.climatechange.gov.au/~/media/publications/science/cc-faster_change.pdf

http://www.climatechange.gov.au/~/media/publications/science/cc-faster_change.pdf

http://www.ukcip.org.uk/wordpress/wp-content/PDFs/Costings_Implementation.pdf

http://www.ukcip.org.uk/wordpress/wp-content/PDFs/Costings_Implementation.pdf

http://www.ukcip.org.uk/wordpress/wp-content/PDFs/Risk.pdf

Appendix A – Detailed risks

Variable Risk Infrastructure categories Data required

Extreme rainfall events


Detailed track maps and topography

Historical track damage information

Revised Rainfall and Runoff tables / adjusted rainfall intensity table

Increase in lost services due to water covering tracks or low adhesion

Track (including culverts), signalling, overhead, tunnels, rail yards, stations


Historical track outage information

Revised Rainfall and Runoff tables / adjusted rainfall intensity table

Increases in landslides Track bridges, tunnels


Past landslides data

Bedrock data

slope steepness data

hydrologic data (if applicable)

Revised Rainfall and Runoff tables /


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adjusted rainfall intensity table

Extreme temperature events

Increased track buckling Track (including culverts)


Historical buckling data

Temperature and solar radiation data

Track material data

Sea level rise Increased flood damage Track (including culverts), signalling, overhead, bridges, tunnels, rail yards, stations


Sea level rise forecast data

Storm surge and storm tide Increased flood damage Track (including culverts), signalling, overhead, bridges, tunnels, rail yards, stations


Sea level rise forecast data

Storm surge forecast data

Storms

Increased wind/lightening damage Overheads


Historical storm damage data

Storm activity forecast data

Increases in debris delaying services Track, overheads


Historical storm-caused delay data

Storm activity forecast data


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Cyclones




Cyclone forecast data

Increased wind/lightening damage Track (including culverts), signalling, overhead, bridges, tunnels, rail yards, stations




Increases in debris delaying services Track, overheads


Historical cyclone-caused delay data


Bushfires

Increased fire damage Track (including culverts), signalling, overhead, bridges, tunnels, rail yards, stations


Historical bushfire data

Forest Fire Danger Index forecast data

Increases to fires or smoke delaying

services

N/A Detailed track maps and topography

Historical bushfire-caused delay data Fire Danger Index forecast data

Appendix B – Useful reference and data list

General climate change

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change.

Website contains the benchmark “4th Assessment Report” as well as the recent “Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation”

http://www.ipcc.ch/#

World Meteorological Organisation

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is an agency of the United Nations dedicated to meteorology (weather and climate), operational hydrology (water) and other related geophysical sciences such as oceanography and atmospheric chemistry.

The website contains data on climate change as well as information on climate risk management.

http://www.wmo.int/pages/index_en.html

Department of Climate Change (Australia)

The Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency’s main tasks are to reduce Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions, adapt to inevitable changes in climate and assist in creating a global climate solution.

The website contains Australian climate and climate adaptation policy and guidance as well as information on grants and assistance.

http://www.climatechange.gov.au/

Climate Change in Australia

A collaborative effort between the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, the CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology to provide key climate change data for use by Australian policy makers and organisations.

http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.com.au/

United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme

UKICP provides tools and resources for government and organisations to use in adapting to climate change.

This website provides useful guidance and tools on assessing climate change risk and planning adaptation. The site also contains many UK specific climate change adaptation case studies,

http://www.ukcip.org.uk/




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including rail-specific and transport case studies.

Adaptation guidance and methodologies

Draft climate change adaptation for settlements and infrastructure (Standards Australia DR AS 5554)

This draft (for comments) standard:

“Provides principles and generic guidelines on the identification and management of risks that settlements and infrastructure face from climate change; and

describes a systematic approach to planning the adaptation of settlements and infrastructure based on the risk management process.”

Not yet publically available

Australian Green Infrastructure Fund (AGIC) guideline for climate change adaptation

Guidance on adaptation considerations for infrastructure. Includes an adaptation performance rating scheme for existing and new infrastructure.

http://www.agic.net.au/agic_cca_guideline_v2.1_final_22_12.pdf

Adapting to Climate Change – An Australian Government Position Paper

Details a high level vision for the Government’s approach to adapting to climate change

http://www.climatechange.gov.au/~/media/publications/adaptation/gov-adapt-climate-change-position-paper.pdf

United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme

This website contains specific tools and methodologies for assessing climate change risks and opportunities for various organisations.


United Nations Framework convention on climate change

Details on global adaptation frameworks, national strategies and case studies.

http://unfccc.int/adaptation/items/4159.php

Guidelines on developing climate change impact statements – Queensland Government

Guidance on how to consider adaptation at the business case stage of a project. This can be adapted to rail infrastructure.

http://www.premiers.qld.gov.au/publications/categories/policies-and-codes/handbooks/cabinet-handbook/assets/ccis-guidelines.pdf

Climate change data (Australia specific)

Ozclim Generation of climate data and climate scenarios for specific variables

http://www.csiro.au/ozclim/home.do






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Climate change in Australia

Climate data forecasts for several major variables and scenarios


Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Historical climate data

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation

Climate research and data

http://www.cmar.csiro.au/research/climate.html

Australian Online Coastal Information

Costal mapping an topography http://www.ozcoasts.gov.au/






