China: Adapting Grain Production to Climate Change

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Grain Production Adaptability to Climate Change in ChinaInternational Conference on Policies for Water and Food Security in Dry Areas24th to 26th of June, Cairo, Egypt

Liujing

1

Administrative regions: 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities (not including Hk,Macao and Taiwan) 2861 countiesThe number of total population is 1.370536875 billion(till 2010.11.1 00:00am including Hk,Macao and Taiwan)Land Characteristics by Topographic Feature

3Water Distribution

4Agricultural Characteristics in ChinaInternational Conference on Policies for Water and Food Security in Dry Areas 24-26 June, Cairo, Egypt5The percentage of sown area of major corps in 1990 and 2011Data: China Statistical Yearbook 201220032012 total grain output and cereal output per hectare International Conference on Policies for Water and Food Security in Dry Areas 24-26 June, Cairo, Egypt6Data: China statistical abstract 201310000 tonKg/ha20032012 rural and unban per capita income in ChinaInternational Conference on Policies for Water and Food Security in Dry Areas 24-26 June, Cairo, Egypt7RMB Yuan/per capitaData: China statistical abstract 2013Features of the case study International Conference on Policies for Water and Food Security in Dry Areas 24-26 June, Cairo, Egypt8Water crisis in north Chinas agricultural sectorIncreasing water scarcityCompetition between:-- farmers and others -- upstream and downstreamInefficient water use

International Conference on Policies for Water and Food Security in Dry Areas 24-26 June, Cairo, Egypt9Drought and agricultural productionYearDisaster-affected areas1000 hectaresDisaster areas1000 hectaresCrop failure areas1000 hectaresGrain loss100 million kgDifficult to access drinking water10,000 peopleLivestock difficult to access drinking water10,000 heads1950-198018790.97 6731.26 75.16 1981-200924805.28 12716.38 2739.55 252.88 2745.76 2139.14 1990-200924992.11 13182.10 2755.36 277.85 2745.76 2139.14 1950-200921697.89 9624.07 2739.55 161.06 2745.76 2139.14 19502009 Drought Statistics in ChinaSourceCalculated according to 2009 China Flood and Drought Bulletin

1950-1980 187967316101981-20092481127225301981-20091950-198011990-2009 2746 2744.1 200923415201010

The map of Grain yield and irrigation ratio

The distribution map of unit yield in Chinese counties in 2008The irrigation level distribution in Chinese counties in 2008Data source: 2008 Agricultural Statistics Resources in Chinese Counties (Cities)Cartographic software: ArcGIS 9.3

The map of Grain yield and stable-harvesting ratios

The distribution map of unit yield in Chinese counties in 2008The stable-harvesting level distribution in Chinese counties in 2008Data source: 2008 Agricultural Statistics Resources in Chinese Counties (Cities)Cartographic software: ArcGIS 9.3

The grain yield in most of counties is between 3500 kg/hectare and 7500 kg/hectareThe grain yield is positively related to the irrigation ratioSimilarly, the stable-harvest ratio is positively related to the grain yieldDescriptive Statistical AnalysisGrain yield, irrigation and stable-harvesting ratiosEmpirical Model and Results Equation

Data Resources The data is collected from unit yield panel data in all counties in 2007 and 2008. After compiling, 2008 effective sample counties with the unit yield and the irrigation ratio were selected. 1825 effective sample counties with the stable-harvesting ratio and unit yield were selected

Modeling

Results10% lowest grain yield counties25% lowest grain yield countiesCounties with the median grain yield75% highest grain yield counties10% highest grain yield countiesCurrent Situation of Irrigation Infrastructure in Rural Area

ConclusionFirstly, under other input factors unchanged, in all quantile regression models, the contribution coefficients of unit yield by the irrigation ratio and the stable-harvesting ratio are the significant positive at 5%.Secondly, for the lowest unit yield group (10% lowest unit yield group), improving the irrigation conditions and increasing irrigation areas and stable-harvesting areas have the most significant influences on increasing grain unit yield.Thirdly, the contribution ratios to the unit yield made by the stable-harvesting ratio are higher than the irrigation ratios.Thanks for listening Questions, comments and suggestions are welcome

Chart2132025018011595

Land Characteristics By Topographic Feature (9,600,000sq.km/100%)

Engle Coef.10-2 Per Capita Annual Income and Engle Coefficient of Urban and Rural HouseholdsPer Capital Annual Net Income of Rural HouseholdsPer Capital Annual DisposableIncome of Rural HouseholdsIncome of Urban HouseholdsEngle Coefficient ofEngle Coefficient ofYearValue (yuan)IndexValue (yuan)IndexRural HouseholdsCity Households(%)(%)Per Capital Annual Net Income of Rural HHPer Capital Annual Disposable Income of Urban HH1978133.6100.0343.4100.067.757.51980191.3139.0477.6127.061.856.91985397.6268.9739.1160.457.853.31989601.5305.71373.9182.554.854.51990686.3311.21510.2198.158.854.21991708.6317.41700.6212.457.653.81992784.0336.22026.6232.957.653.01993921.6346.92577.4255.158.150.319941221.0364.43496.2276.858.950.019951577.7383.74283.0290.358.650.119961926.1418.24838.9301.656.348.819972090.1437.45160.3311.955.146.619982162.0456.25425.1329.953.444.719992210.3473.55854.0360.652.642.120002253.4483.56280.0383.749.139.420012366.4503.86859.6416.347.738.220022475.6528.07702.8472.146.237.720032622.2550.78472.2514.645.637.1

Engle Coef.000000000000000000000000000000000000

Rural Households (%)City Households (%)YearEngel CoefficientEngle Coefficient of Urban and Rural Households

Composition of GDP000000000000000000000000000000000000

Per Capital Annual Net Income of Rural HHPer Capital Annual Disposable Income of Urban HHyuan/personPer Capita Annual Income

GDP Trend3-2 Composition of Gross Domestic ProductData in this table are calculated at current prices.YearGDPPrimary IndustrySecondaryIndustryTertiaryIndustry1978100.028.148.223.71979100.031.247.421.41980100.030.148.521.41981100.031.846.421.81982100.033.345.021.71983100.033.044.622.41984100.032.043.324.71985100.028.443.128.51986100.027.144.028.91987100.026.843.929.31988100.025.744.130.21989100.025.043.032.01990100.027.141.631.31991100.024.542.133.41992100.021.843.934.31993100.019.947.432.71994100.020.247.931.91995100.020.548.830.71996100.020.449.530.11997100.019.150.030.91998100.018.649.332.11999100.017.649.433.00.02000100.016.450.233.40.02001100.015.850.134.12002100.015.350.434.30.00.00.02003100.014.652.233.20.00.00.0

GDP Trend000

Composition of GDP,1978

Government Revenue000

Composition of GDP,2003

Ratio of Gov. Revenue3-1 Gross Domestic ProductData in this table are calculated at current prices.(100 million yuan)#Transport,Per Capita GDPYearGrossGrossPrimarySecondaryIndustryConstrucTertiaryPost and#Wholesale,NationalDomesticIndustryIndustry-tionIndustryTelecommuni-Retail TradeIncomeProductcation& CateringServicesServices19783624.13624.11018.41745.21607.0138.2860.5172.8265.537919794038.24038.21258.91913.51769.7143.8865.8184.2220.241719804517.84517.81359.42192.01996.5195.5966.4205.0213.646019814860.34862.41545.62255.52048.4207.11061.3211.1255.748919825301.85294.71761.62383.02162.3220.71150.1236.7198.652519835957.45934.51960.82646.22375.6270.61327.5264.9231.458019847206.77171.02295.53105.72789.0316.71769.8327.1412.469219858989.18964.42541.63866.63448.7417.92556.2406.9878.4853198610201.410202.22763.94492.73967.0525.72945.6475.6943.2956198711954.511962.53204.35251.64585.8665.83506.6544.91159.31104198814922.314928.33831.06587.25777.2810.04510.1661.01618.01355198916917.816909.24228.07278.06484.0794.05403.2786.01687.01512199018598.418547.95017.07717.46858.0859.45813.51147.51419.71634199121662.521617.85288.69102.28087.11015.17227.01409.72087.01879199226651.926638.15800.011699.510284.51415.09138.61681.82735.02287199334560.534634.46882.116428.514143.82284.711323.82123.23090.72939199446670.046759.49457.222372.219359.63012.614930.02685.94050.43923199557494.958478.111993.028537.924718.33819.617947.23054.74932.34854199666850.567884.613844.233612.929082.64530.520427.53494.05560.35576199773142.774462.614211.237222.732412.14810.623028.73797.26159.96054199876967.278345.214552.438619.333387.95231.425173.54121.36579.16308199980579.482067.514472.040557.835087.25470.627037.74460.36910.36551200088254.089468.114628.244935.339047.35888.029904.65408.67316.07086200195727.997314.815411.848750.042374.66375.433153.05968.37918.876512002103935.3105172.316117.352980.245975.27005.036074.86420.38476.782142003116603.2117251.917092.161274.153092.98181.338885.76715.69238.19101a) Since 1980, the difference between the Gross Domestic Product and the Gross National Income (formly, the Gross National Product) has been thenet factor income from abroad.

Ratio of Gov. Revenue00000000000000000000000000

Per Capita GDPYear(yuan/person)Trend of Per Capita GDP

Ratio of Expenditure8-1 Government Revenue and Expenditure and Their Increase Rates(100 million yuan)(100 million yuan)Increase Rates (%)GovernmentBalancePercentage ofYearGovernmentGovernmentGovernmentGovernment RevenueGovernment Expenditure(100 million yuan)RevenueExpenditureRevenue to GDP (%)19781132.261122.0910.1729.533.031.219801159.931228.83-68.901.2-4.125.719852004.822004.250.5722.017.822.419892664.902823.78-158.8813.113.315.819902937.103083.59-146.4910.29.215.819913149.483386.62-237.147.29.814.619923483.373742.20-258.8310.610.513.119934348.954642.30-293.3524.824.112.619945218.105792.62-574.5220.024.811.219956242.206823.72-581.5219.617.810.719967407.997937.55-529.5618.716.310.919978651.149233.56-582.4216.816.311.619989875.9510798.18-922.2314.216.912.6199911444.0813187.67-1743.5915.922.113.9200013395.2315886.50-2491.2717.020.515.0200116386.0418902.58-2516.5422.319.016.8200218903.6422053.15-3149.5115.416.718.0200321715.2524649.95-2934.7014.911.818.5a) Government price subsidies were listed as negative revenue items prior to 1986, but they have been listed as expenditure items in governmentaccounts since 1986. For comparison purpose, budgetary price subsidies before 1985 were adjustedand listed as expenditure items.b) Government expenditures include the payment for interest of domestic and foreign debts from 2000, and other tables which concern the governmentexpenditure of the central government are consistent with this definition.

Ratio of Expenditure000000000000000000000000000000000000

Government RevenueGovernment Expenditure100 million yuanGovernment Revenue and Expenditure

Per Capita A. NI of Rural HH8-16 Government Revenue and Ratio of the Central and Local GovernmentRatio (%)TotalYearRevenueCentralLocalCentralLocal(100 million yuan)GovernmentGovernmentGovernmentGovernment19781132.26175.77956.4915.584.519801159.93284.45875.4824.575.519852004.82769.631235.1938.461.619892664.90822.521842.3830.969.119902937.10992.421944.6833.866.219913149.48938.252211.2329.870.219923483.37979.512503.8628.171.919934348.95957.513391.4422.078.019945218.102906.502311.6055.744.319956242.203256.622985.5852.247.819967407.993661.073746.9249.450.619978651.144226.924424.2248.951.119989875.954892.004983.9549.550.5199911444.085849.215594.8751.148.9200013395.236989.176406.0652.247.8200116386.048582.747803.3052.447.6200218903.6410388.648515.0055.045.0200321715.2511865.279849.9854.645.4a) The revenue of the central and local governments refers to revenue actually collected by the central and local governments.b) Revenue in this table does not include revenue from domestic and foreign borrowings.

Per Capita A. NI of Rural HH000000000000000000000000000000000000

Central GovernmentLocal Government%Ratio of the Central and Local Government Revenue

Birth Rate8-17 Government Expenditure and Ratio of Central and Local GovernmentRatio (%)TotalYearExpenditureCentralLocalCentralLocal(100 million yuan)GovernmentGovernmentGovernmentGovernment19781122.09532.12589.9747.452.619801228.83666.81562.0254.345.719852004.25795.251209.0039.760.319892823.78888.771935.0131.568.519903083.591004.472079.1232.667.419913386.621090.812295.8132.267.819923742.201170.442571.7631.368.719934642.301312.063330.2428.371.719945792.621754.434038.1930.369.719956823.721995.394828.3329.270.819967937.552151.275786.2827.172.919979233.562532.506701.0627.472.6199810798.183125.607672.5828.971.1199913187.674152.339035.3431.568.5200015886.505519.8510366.6534.765.3200118902.585768.0213134.5630.569.5200222053.156771.7015281.4530.769.3200324649.957420.1017229.8530.169.9a) The expenditure of the central and local governments refers to expenditure actually collected by the central and local governments.b) Expenditure in this table does not include the payment of the principal and interest of domestic and foreign debts and the expenditure for capitalconstruction using foreign loans.

Birth Rate000000000000000000000000000000000000

Central GovernmentLocal Government%Ratio of Central and Local Gov. Expenditure

Land10-20 Per Capita Annual Net Income of Rural Households(yuan)Item20031990199520002002Net Income2622.24686.311577.742253.422475.63By SourceWages Income918.38138.80353.70702.30840.22Net Income from Household Business1541.28518.551125.791427.271486.54Farming885.70344.59799.44833.93866.67Forestry29.287.5313.5222.4425.53Animal Husbandry245.6896.81127.81207.35210.62Fishery34.927.1115.6926.9532.17Industry60.499.1513.6352.6763.29Construction48.1212.1834.5346.7345.28Transport, Post and68.9113.4527.7663.6369.38Telecommunication ServicesWholesale and Retail Trade and89.0512.6934.2678.5485.56Catering ServicesSocial Services30.976.5517.1828.0931.36Culture, Education and Health Care8.766.867.99Others39.388.4941.9760.0848.68Transfer Income and Property Income162.5828.9698.25123.85148.87

Land000

Composition of Per Capita Annual Net Income of Rural HH,1990

000

Composition of Per Capita Annual Net Income of Rural HH,2003

4-2 Birth Rate, Death Rate and Natural Growth Rate of PopulationBirthDeathNaturalYearRateRateGrowthRate197818.256.2512.00198018.216.3411.87198120.916.3614.55198222.286.6015.68198320.196.9013.29198419.906.8213.08198521.046.7814.26198622.436.8615.57198723.336.7216.61198822.376.6415.73198921.586.5415.04199021.066.6714.39199119.686.7012.98199218.246.6411.60199318.096.6411.45199417.706.4911.21199517.126.5710.55199616.986.5610.42199716.576.5110.06199815.646.509.14199914.646.468.18200014.036.457.58200113.386.436.95200212.866.416.45200312.416.406.01

000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Birth RateDeath RateNatural Growth RateBirth Rate, Death Rate and Natural Growth Rate of Population

1-4 Land CharacteristicsItemAreaPercentage toTotal AreaTotal Land Area (10 000 sq.km)960100.00By Topographic Feature (10 000 sq.km)Mountains32033.33Plateaus25026.04Basins18018.75Plains11511.98Hills959.90By Altitude (10 000 sq.km)Under 500m241.725.18500-1000m162.516.931000-2000m239.924.992000-3000m67.67.04Above 3000m248.325.86By Land Use (10 000 hectares)Cultivated Land1300413.54Forests1589416.56Water Area in Land17471.82Area of Grassland4000041.67Useable Area3133332.64Others2535526.41a) Most figures in this table were obtained from surveys in previous years.

32025018011595

Land Characteristics By Topographic Feature (10 000 sq.km)

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