Grain Production Adaptability to Climate Change in China

International Conference on Policies for Water and Food Security in Dry Areas

24th to 26th of June, Cairo, Egypt

Liujing

Administrative

regions:

31 provinces,

autonomous

regions and

municipalities (not

including

Hk,Macao and

Taiwan) 2861

counties

The number of

total population is

1.370536875

billion(till

2010.11.1

00:00am

including

Hk,Macao and

Taiwan)

Land Characteristics by Topographic

Feature

Land Char act er i st i cs By Topogr aphi c

Feat ur e ( 9, 600, 000sq. km/ 100%)

33%

26%

19%

12%

10%Mount ai ns

Pl at eaus

Basi ns

Pl ai ns

Hi l l s

Water Distribution

Agricultural Characteristics in China

Inte

rnat

ion

al C

on

fere

nce

on

Po

licie

s fo

r W

ater

an

d F

oo

d

Secu

rity

in D

ry A

reas

–2

4-2

6 J

un

e,

Cai

ro, E

gyp

t

5

Grain, 76.5

Oil-bearing, 7.3

Cotton, 3.8

Sugar, 1.1

Vegetable, 4.3

Orchards, 3.5

1990 Unit: %

Grain, 68.1

Oil-bearing, 8.5

Cotton, 3.1

Sugar, 1.2

Vegetable, 12.1

Orchards, 7.3 2011

The percentage of sown area of major corps in 1990 and 2011

Data: China Statistical Yearbook 2012

Features of the case study

Inte

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ion

al C

on

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nce

on

Po

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s fo

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ater

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d F

oo

d S

ecu

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in D

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6 J

un

e, C

airo

, Egy

pt

8

Water crisis in north China’s agricultural sector

• Increasing water scarcity

• Competition between:

• -- farmers and others

• -- upstream and downstream

• Inefficient water use

Inte

rnat

ion

al C

on

fere

nce

on

Po

licie

s fo

r W

ater

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d F

oo

d

Secu

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in D

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reas

–2

4-2

6

Jun

e, C

airo

, Egy

pt

9

Drought and agricultural production

Year

Disaster-affected areas（1000 hectares）

Disaster areas（1000 hectares）

Crop failure areas（1000 hectares）

Grain loss

（100 million kg）

Difficult to access drinking water（10,000 people）

Livestock difficult to access drinking water

（10,000

heads））

1950-1980 18790.97 6731.26 75.16

1981-2009 24805.28 12716.38 2739.55 252.88 2745.76 2139.14

1990-2009 24992.11 13182.10 2755.36 277.85 2745.76 2139.14

1950-2009 21697.89 9624.07 2739.55 161.06 2745.76 2139.14

1950～2009 Drought Statistics in China

Source：Calculated according to 2009 China Flood and Drought Bulletin

The map of Grain yield and irrigation ratioThe distribution map of unit yield in

Chinese counties in 2008The irrigation level distribution in

Chinese counties in 2008

Data source: 2008 Agricultural Statistics Resources in Chinese Counties (Cities)Cartographic software: ArcGIS 9.3

The map of Grain yield and stable-harvesting ratios

The distribution map of unit yield in Chinese counties in 2008

The stable-harvesting level distribution in Chinese counties in 2008

Data source: 2008 Agricultural Statistics Resources in Chinese Counties (Cities)Cartographic software: ArcGIS 9.3

The grain yield in most of counties is between 3500 kg/hectare

and 7500 kg/hectare

The grain yield is positively related to the irrigation ratio

Similarly, the stable-harvest ratio is positively related to the grain

yield

Descriptive Statistical Analysis

——Grain yield, irrigation and stable-harvesting ratios

Empirical Model and Results

Equation

Data Resources

The data is collected from unit yield panel data in all

counties in 2007 and 2008. After compiling, 2008 effective

sample counties with the unit yield and the irrigation ratio

were selected. 1825 effective sample counties with the

stable-harvesting ratio and unit yield were selected

——Modeling

ititti

j

ijtjit SeirriIrriXYield lnln 0

实证模型及结果

——模型设定

Results

10% lowest grain yield counties

25% lowest grain yield counties

Counties with the median grain yield

75% highest grain yield counties

10% highest grain yield counties

Current Situation of Irrigation Infrastructure in Rural Area

Conclusion

Firstly, under other input factors unchanged, in all quantile regression

models, the contribution coefficients of unit yield by the irrigation

ratio and the stable-harvesting ratio are the significant positive at 5%.

Secondly, for the lowest unit yield group (10% lowest unit yield

group), improving the irrigation conditions and increasing irrigation

areas and stable-harvesting areas have the most significant influences

on increasing grain unit yield.

Thirdly, the contribution ratios to the unit yield made by the stable-

harvesting ratio are higher than the irrigation ratios.

Thanks for listening Questions, comments and suggestions are welcome