Mankiw 5/e Chapter 4: Money and Inflation

CHAPTER THREE

Inflation and the Cost of Livingmacro 0Ive included a graph that unfolds over slides 27-31 that tells the same story as Figure 4-1 on p.86 of the text. If you prefer to show Figure 4-1, you can hide slides 27-31 and unhide slide 26.

Measuring the Cost of LivingInflation refers to a situation in which the economys overall price level is rising.The inflation rate is the percentage change in the price level from the previous period.1The Consumer Price IndexThe consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the overall cost of the goods and services bought by a typical consumer. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (or General Statistics Office in VN) reports the CPI each month.It is used to monitor changes in the cost of living over time.22slide 3The Consumer Price IndexWhen the CPI rises, the typical family has to spend more dollars to maintain the same standard of living.How the Consumer Price Index Is CalculatedFix the Basket: Determine what prices are most important to the typical consumer.The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) identifies a market basket of goods and services the typical consumer buys. The BLS conducts monthly consumer surveys to set the weights for the prices of those goods and services.44How the Consumer Price Index Is CalculatedFind the Prices: Find the prices of each of the goods and services in the basket for each point in time.55How the Consumer Price Index Is CalculatedCompute the Baskets Cost: Use the data on prices to calculate the cost of the basket of goods and services at different times.66How the Consumer Price Index Is CalculatedChoose a Base Year and Compute the Index: Designate one year as the base year, making it the benchmark against which other years are compared. Compute the index by dividing the price of the basket in one year by the price in the base year and multiplying by 100. 77How the Consumer Price Index Is CalculatedCompute the inflation rate: The inflation rate is the percentage change in the price index from the preceding period.88The Inflation Rate

The inflation rate is calculated as follows:9Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An ExampleStep 1:Survey Consumers to Determine a Fixed Basket of Goods

10Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example

Step 2: Find the Price of Each Good in Each Year11Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example

Step 3: Compute the Cost of the Basket of Goods in Each Year12Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An ExampleStep 4: Choose One Year as the Base Year (2001) and Compute the Consumer Price Index in Each Year

13Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example

Step 5: Use the Consumer Price Index to Compute the Inflation Rate from Previous Year14slide 15ACTIVE LEARNING 1:Your father graduated from school and took his first job in 1972, which paid a salary of $7,000. What is this salary worth in 2005 dollars?CPI in 1972 = 41.8CPI in 2005 = 195 Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: Another ExampleBase Year is 1998.Basket of goods in 1998 costs $1,200.The same basket in 2000 costs $1,236.CPI = ($1,236/$1,200) X 100 = 103.Prices increased 3 percent between 1998 and 2000.169GDP Deflator

The GDP deflator is calculated as follows:17Other Price IndexesThe BLS calculates other prices indexes: The index for different regions within the country.The producer price index, which measures the cost of a basket of goods and services bought by firms rather than consumers. 1811HousingFood/BeveragesTransportationMedical CareApparelRecreationOtherEducation andcommunicationWhats in the US CPIs Basket?40%16%17%6%5%6%5%5%1910slide 20Whats in the VN CPIs Basket?202010Ngun: Thanh nin, s 337 (4363), th 2: 3/12/2007slide 21U.S. inflation & its trend, 1960-2001

21In the short run, supply shocks and other factors can push inflation above or below its long-run trend. We study those factors in chapter 13 (on Aggregate Supply and the Phillips Curve).

In this chapter, we learn about the long-run trend behavior of prices and inflation.

slide 22Problems in Measuring The Cost of LivingThe CPI is an accurate measure of the selected goods that make up the typical bundle, but it is not a perfect measure of the cost of living.Problems in Measuring The Cost of LivingSubstitution biasIntroduction of new goodsUnmeasured quality changes2313Substitution BiasThe basket does not change to reflect consumer reaction to changes in relative prices.Consumers substitute toward goods that have become relatively less expensive.The index overstates the increase in cost of living by not considering consumer substitution.2414Introduction of New GoodsThe basket does not reflect the change in purchasing power brought on by the introduction of new products.New products result in greater variety, which in turn makes each dollar more valuable.Consumers need fewer dollars to maintain any given standard of living.2515Unmeasured Quality ChangesIf the quality of a good rises from one year to the next, the value of a dollar rises, even if the price of the good stays the same.If the quality of a good falls from one year to the next, the value of a dollar falls, even if the price of the good stays the same.2616slide 27Unmeasured Quality ChangesThe BLS tries to adjust the price for constant quality, but such differences are hard to measure.Problems in Measuring the Cost of LivingThe substitution bias, introduction of new goods, and unmeasured quality changes cause the CPI to overstate the true cost of living.The issue is important because many government programs use the CPI to adjust for changes in the overall level of prices.The CPI overstates inflation by about 1 percentage point per year. 2818The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index Economists and policymakers monitor both the GDP deflator and the consumer price index to gauge how quickly prices are rising.There are two important differences between the indexes that can cause them to diverge.2919The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price IndexThe GDP deflator reflects the prices of all goods and services produced domestically, whereas...the consumer price index reflects the prices of all goods and services bought by consumers.3020The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price IndexThe consumer price index compares the price of a fixed basket of goods and services to the price of the basket in the base year (only occasionally does the BLS change the basket)...whereas the GDP deflator compares the price of currently produced goods and services to the price of the same goods and services in the base year.31201965Percentper Year1510501970197519801985199019952000CPITwo Measures of InflationGDP deflator322slide 33Real and Nominal Interest RatesInterest represents a payment in the future for a transfer of money in the past.Real and Nominal Interest RatesThe nominal interest rate is the interest rate not corrected for inflation. It is the interest rate that a bank pays.The real interest rate is the nominal interest rate that is corrected for inflation.Real interest rate = (Nominal interest rate Inflation rate)3430Real and Nominal Interest RatesYou borrowed $1,000 for one year.Nominal interest rate was 15%. During the year inflation was 10%.Real interest rate = Nominal interest rate Inflation= 15% - 10% = 5%35311965Interest Rates(percent per year)151050-51970197519801985199019951998Nominal interest rateReal interest rateReal and Nominal Interest Rates363slide 37Kinds of InflationModerate inflation: one-digit inflationGalloping inflation: from one to threedigit inflationHyperinflation: over four-digit inflation37Money and Prices During Four Hyperinflations(b) HungaryMoney supply19251924192319221921Price level100,00010,0001,000100Index (Jan. 1921 = 100)(a) Austria19251924192319221921100,00010,0001,000100Index (Jan. 1921 = 100)Price levelMoney supply38Stop hyperinflation stop printing moneyMoney and Prices During Four Hyperinflationsc) Germany1100 trillion1 million10 billion1 trillion100 million10,00010019251924192319221921Price levelMoneysupply d) PolandMoneysupplyPrice levelIndex (Jan. 1921 = 100)10010 million100,0001 million10,0001,00019251924192319221921Index (Jan. 1921 = 100)39The Costs of InflationShoeleather costsMenu costsRelative price variabilityTax distortionsConfusion and inconvenienceArbitrary redistribution of wealth40Shoeleather CostsShoeleather costs are the resources wasted when inflation encourages people to reduce their money holdings.Inflation reduces the real value of money, so people have an incentive to minimize their cash holdings. 41Shoeleather CostsLess cash requires more frequent trips to the bank to withdraw money from interest-bearing accounts.The actual cost of reducing your money holdings is the time and convenience you must sacrifice to keep less money on hand.Also, extra trips to the bank take time away from productive activities.42Menu CostsMenu costs are the costs of adjusting prices.During inflationary times, it is necessary to update price lists and other posted prices.This is a resource-consuming process that takes away from other productive activities.43Relative-Price VariabilityInflation distorts relative prices. Consumer decisions are distorted, and markets are less able to allocate resources to their best use.44Inflation-Induced Tax DistortionInflation exaggerates the size of capital gains and increases the tax burden on this type of income. With progressive taxation, capital gains are taxed more heavily.45Inflation-Induced Tax DistortionThe income tax treats the nominal interest earned on savings as income, even though part of the nominal interest rate merely compensates for inflation. The after-tax real interest rate falls, making saving less attractive.46How Inflation Raises the Tax Burden On SavingEconomy 1(price stability)Economy 2(inflation)Real interest rate4%4%Inflation rate08Nominal interest rate (Real interest rate + inflation rate)412Reduced interest due to 25 percent tax (.25 x nominal interest rate)13After-tax nominal interest rate (.75 x nominal interest rate)39After-tax interest rate(after-tax nominal interest rate - inflation rate)3=3-0147Confusion and InconvenienceWhen the Fed increases the money supply and creates inflation, it erodes the real value of the unit of account.Inflation causes dollars at different times to have different real values.Therefore, with rising prices, it is more difficult to compare real revenues, costs, and profits over time.48Arbitrary Redistribution of WealthUnexpected inflation redistributes wealth among the population in a way that has nothing to do with either merit or need.These redistributions occur because many loans in the economy are specified in terms of the unit of account money.49Ti phn phi ca ci. slide 50Inflation and nominal interest rates across countries

50slide 51U.S. inflation and nominal interest rates, 1952-1998Percent16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2Nominalinterest rateInflationrate19501955196019651970Year19751980198519902000199551The inflation rate in the US Economy

inflation & M growth rates10.23255813959.72222222226.81818181828.18181818189.09090909099.50226244349.90990990998.92857142867.01754385966.11353711794.76190476192.99145299151.26582278480.84388185651.70212765960.4201680672-0.4166666667-1.2396694215-2.868852459-2.868852459-2.4590163934-2.4691358025-2.0661157025-2.0746887967-2.0833333333-1.2552301255-1.2552301255-0.8368200837-0.418410041801.68776371312.10970464142.10084033613.37552742623.79746835445.93220338988.0851063839.32203389839.74576271199.28270042199.2436974798.36820083687.4688796687.02479338846.99588477376.93877551026.910569105764.33070866142.32558139531.93050193052.31660231661.92307692312.31660231663.08880308883.08880308882.30769230771.90839694661.52091254750.75471698110.37735849060.75757575760.75757575760.75471698110.75471698111.13207547170.37453183520.74906367041.12781954891.12359550560.74906367040.74906367041.12781954891.50375939851.12781954890.74906367040.74906367040.37313432840.37313432840-0.3717472119-1.1111111111-0.3717472119-0.3717472119-0.3717472119-0.7407407407-0.3717472119-0.3717472119-0.3717472119-0.7434944238-0.3717472119-0.74349442380.37313432840.37453183520.37313432840.373134328400.37313432840.37313432840.37313432840.74626865671.8726591761.86567164182.24719101121.85873605952.61194029852.23048327142.60223048333.35820895523.34572490713.7174721193.7174721193.70370370373.30882352943.29670329673.6630036633.28467153282.90909090913.27272727273.26086956523.24909747293.23741007193.58422939073.58422939073.21428571432.8469750892.48226950352.12014134282.12014134282.12014134282.11267605631.75438596491.39860139861.04529616720.34602076120.34602076120.34602076120.69204152251.03806228371.03806228371.3840830451.73010380621.37931034481.37931034481.37931034481.37931034481.37931034481.7241379312.06896551721.71821305841.36986301371.36986301371.0238907851.36054421771.36054421771.36054421771.36054421771.36054421771.36054421771.01694915250.67567567570.67567567571.01351351351.01351351351.35135135140.67114093960.67114093960.67114093960.67114093961.00671140941.34228187921.34228187921.34228187921.34228187921.00334448161.33779264211.33333333331.33333333331.33333333331.33333333331.33333333331.32890365450.99337748340.99337748340.99337748341.32450331131.65562913911.65016501650.98684210531.31578947371.31578947371.64473684211.64473684211.31147540981.31147540981.63934426231.63934426231.30718954250.97719869710.9740259741.30293159610.9740259741.29870129871.29449838191.29449838191.29449838191.29449838191.29032258061.61290322581.9354838711.9354838711.60771704181.60771704181.92926045021.92307692311.91693290731.91693290732.55591054312.8753993612.86624203822.85714285712.53164556962.84810126583.48101265823.79746835443.7854889593.45911949693.13479623823.13479623822.80373831782.48447204972.47678018582.16049382722.77777777782.76923076922.44648318042.43902439022.43161094223.03951367783.34346504563.64741641343.63636363643.93939393943.92749244714.22960725084.20420420424.49101796414.47761194034.46428571434.74777448074.42477876114.70588235294.69208211144.67836257315.24781341115.5232558145.50724637685.47550432285.44412607455.42857142865.6980056985.66572237965.93220338985.89887640456.1624649866.42458100566.09418282556.06060606066.0439560446.01092896175.70652173915.69105691065.66037735855.63002680975.65.57029177725.27704485494.72440944884.43864229774.15584415584.40414507774.3814432994.37017994864.3589743594.08163265313.8071065993.53535353543.26633165833.25814536343.75939849623.53.49127182043.22580645162.9629629632.95566502462.94840294843.18627450983.17848410763.41463414633.40632603413.6407766993.86473429954.83091787445.30120481935.52884615385.99520383695.74162679437.39856801917.36342042768.05687203798.25471698118.94117647069.60187353631010.138248847910.068649885610.706150341710.859728506811.538461538510.888888888911.946902654911.842105263212.200435729812.095032397411.752136752111.205073995810.46025104610.18711018719.25925925939.18367346949.53346855988.61723446897.90513833997.64705882357.37864077677.12909441236.69216061196.27376425866.06060606065.84905660386.21468926555.98130841125.55555555565.71955719565.49450549455.46448087435.06329113925.0359712235.19713261656.08228980326.42857142866.95187165786.73758865256.70194003536.66666666676.63176265276.42361111116.3903281526.71256454396.67808219186.81431005116.2394603716.37583892626.57.14285714297.43801652897.73026315797.85597381348.48287112568.92857142868.87096774198.98876404499.25039872419.841269841310.252365930610.485133020310.697674418611.076923076911.450381679411.836115326311.879699248112.071535022412.592592592613.254786450713.868613138714.16184971114.592274678114.589235127514.425770308114.265927977813.150684931512.890094979612.768817204312.632978723412.631578947412.353706111811.794871794911.392405063310.611735330810.13597033379.79192166469.69696969710.774818401910.817307692310.965435041710.27154663529.57943925238.9120370378.25688073397.61363636366.88487584656.62177328846.91192865117.1823204426.55737704925.96529284164.94092373795.03211991434.47761194033.8257173223.7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inflation rateinflation rate trend% per year

datacpi-data.xlsConsumer Price Index For All Urban Consumers:All Items1982-84=100, Seasonally AdjustedSource: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor StatisticsDATE CPIAUCSL(quarter over quarter at annualized rate)CPIinflation rate19471194721.5194721947.083333333321.6194731947.166666666722194741947.25229.3194751947.3333333333227.4194761947.416666666722.11.8194771947.522.23.6194781947.583333333322.47.3194791947.666666666722.812.71947101947.7522.912.61947111947.833333333323.112.51947121947.916666666723.410.519481194823.714.010.2194821948.083333333323.710.49.7194831948.166666666723.51.76.8194841948.2523.81.78.2194851948.3333333333245.19.1194861948.416666666724.211.99.5194871948.524.410.19.9194881948.583333333324.46.78.9194891948.666666666724.43.37.01948101948.7524.3-1.66.11948111948.833333333324.2-3.34.81948121948.916666666724.1-4.93.019491194924-4.91.3194921949.083333333323.9-5.00.8194931949.166666666723.9-3.31.7194941949.2523.9-1.70.4194951949.333333333323.90.0-0.4194961949.416666666723.90.0-1.2194971949.523.7-3.3-2.9194981949.583333333323.7-3.3-2.9194991949.666666666723.8-1.7-2.51949101949.7523.70.0-2.51949111949.833333333323.70.0-2.11949121949.916666666723.6-3.4-2.119501195023.5-3.4-2.1195021950.083333333323.6-1.7-1.3195031950.166666666723.60.0-1.3195041950.2523.73.4-0.8195051950.333333333323.83.4-0.4195061950.416666666723.95.10.0195071950.524.16.81.7195081950.583333333324.26.72.1195091950.666666666724.36.72.11950101950.7524.56.63.41950111950.833333333324.66.63.81950121950.91666666672511.55.919511195125.414.78.12.7195121951.083333333325.819.59.32.6195131951.166666666725.914.49.72.5195141951.2525.97.99.32.4195151951.3333333333263.19.22.3195161951.416666666725.90.08.42.2195171951.525.90.07.52.1195181951.583333333325.9-1.57.01.9195191951.6666666667261.57.01.81951101951.7526.24.66.91.81951111951.833333333326.36.26.91.71951121951.916666666726.57.76.01.619521195226.54.64.32.02.3195221952.083333333326.41.52.31.92.2195231952.166666666726.4-1.51.91.82.2195241952.2526.50.02.31.82.1195251952.333333333326.51.51.91.82.1195261952.416666666726.51.52.31.82.0195271952.526.73.03.11.82.0195281952.583333333326.73.03.11.71.9195291952.666666666726.61.52.31.71.91952101952.7526.70.01.91.71.81952111952.833333333326.70.01.51.71.81952121952.916666666726.71.50.81.71.819531195326.6-1.50.41.81.8195321953.083333333326.6-1.50.81.91.8195331953.166666666726.6-1.50.82.01.8195341953.2526.71.50.82.11.9195351953.333333333326.71.50.82.11.9195361953.416666666726.83.01.12.11.9195371953.526.81.50.42.11.9195381953.583333333326.93.00.72.12.0195391953.666666666726.91.51.12.22.01953101953.75273.01.12.22.11953111953.833333333326.90.00.72.22.11953121953.916666666726.90.00.72.22.219541195426.9-1.51.12.32.2195421954.0833333333271.51.52.32.2195431954.166666666726.90.01.12.32.2195441954.2526.90.00.72.32.2195451954.333333333326.9-1.50.72.32.3195461954.416666666726.90.00.42.32.3195471954.526.90.00.42.22.3195481954.583333333326.90.00.02.22.3195491954.666666666726.8-1.5-0.42.22.31954101954.7526.7-3.0-1.12.12.31954111954.833333333326.8-1.5-0.42.12.21954121954.916666666726.80.0-0.42.02.219551195526.81.5-0.41.92.2195521955.083333333326.80.0-0.71.82.1195531955.166666666726.80.0-0.41.62.0195541955.2526.80.0-0.41.52.0195551955.333333333326.80.0-0.41.51.9195561955.416666666726.7-1.5-0.71.51.8195571955.526.80.0-0.41.51.8195581955.583333333326.7-1.5-0.71.51.7195591955.666666666726.93.00.41.51.71955101955.7526.80.00.41.51.61955111955.833333333326.93.00.41.51.61955121955.916666666726.90.00.41.41.519561195626.80.00.01.41.5195621956.083333333326.90.00.41.31.4195631956.166666666726.90.00.41.31.4195641956.2526.91.50.41.31.4195651956.3333333333271.50.71.31.4195661956.416666666727.24.51.91.31.4195671956.527.35.91.91.31.4195681956.583333333327.34.42.21.31.4195691956.666666666727.42.91.91.31.31956101956.7527.52.92.61.31.31956111956.833333333327.52.92.21.31.31956121956.916666666727.62.92.61.31.319571195727.72.93.41.31.3195721957.083333333327.84.43.31.31.3195731957.166666666727.94.33.71.41.3195741957.2527.92.93.71.41.3195751957.3333333333282.93.71.41.3195761957.416666666728.12.93.31.41.3195771957.528.24.33.31.31.3195781957.583333333328.34.33.71.31.3195791957.666666666728.32.83.31.31.41957101957.7528.31.42.91.41.41957111957.833333333328.41.43.31.31.41957121957.916666666728.52.83.31.31.419581195828.64.23.21.31.4195821958.083333333328.74.23.21.41.4195831958.166666666728.95.63.61.41.4195841958.2528.94.23.61.41.4195851958.333333333328.92.83.21.41.4195861958.416666666728.90.02.81.41.4195871958.528.90.02.51.41.4195881958.583333333328.90.02.11.51.4195891958.666666666728.90.02.11.51.41958101958.7528.90.02.11.51.41958111958.8333333333291.42.11.51.41958121958.9166666667291.41.81.61.5M2M2 growth 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