cbre u.s. industrial marketview

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CBRE Global Research and Consulting U.S. Industrial MarketView Q2 2012 LEASE RATE $5.46 NET ABSORPTION 26.4 MSF THE FIGHT FOR CLASS A SPACE ACCELERATES CONSTRUCTION COMPLETIONS 5.2 MSF AVAILABILITY RATE 13.2% Executive Summary Despite a lackluster macroeconomic environment, industrial leasing velocity has improved as users try to lock-in currently favorable rent and lease terms. Industrial demand will soften over the next several quarters, in line with slowing U.S. and global growth, a faltering manufacturing sector and shrinking international trade. User demand for Class A space will continue to drive down availability rates, leading to upward pressure on lease rates. Construction activity is back, including both build-to-suit and speculative projects across some of the nation’s largest industrial markets. Low interest rates and the limited supply of Class A industrial product for sale will continue to drive cap rates down in the near term. Industrial real estate performance continues to recover as signaled by the NCREIF Property Index. Industrial real estate delivered an annualized total return of 13.4% during Q1 2012, in line with the overall index. INDUSTRIAL LEASING ACTIVITY: More active than underlying economic trends would suggest Despite a number of major global economic headwinds and a U.S. economy that is fast losing momentum, industrial leasing remained surprisingly active across most markets during the past quarter. The U.S. industrial market continued to show signs of recovery, with the national industrial availability rate dropping by 20 basis points (bps) to 13.2% in the second quarter of 2012. Occupiers have begun to move off the sidelines, seeking longer term leases to take advantage of lower competitive rents, which are expected to rise. “Extend and blend” user transactions continue, but landlords are getting pricing power back as industrial market conditions improve. A number of industrial users are also considering the ownership option given record-low interest rates. Warehouse demand was the main driver for spaces larger than100,000 sq. ft. Tenants are upgrading, relocating from Class B to Class A space, but options are getting tighter. Manufacturing space requirements were also on the rise, particularly in the southeastern and northeastern U.S. markets, due in part to the U.S. “manufacturing renaissance.” The prospect for industrial demand over the next few months will likely be flat, however, given weakening headline economic indicators. U.S. economic data has been disappointing, leading to further downward revisions to growth. The overall economy, consumer spending, international trade and the broader manufacturing sector are among the key drivers of industrial demand, with all pointing to a soft patch through at least the next quarter.

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Page 1: CBRE U.S. Industrial Marketview

CBRE Global Research and Consulting

U.S. Industrial MarketView Q2 2012

LEASE RATE $5.46

NET ABSORPTION26.4 MSF

THE FIGHT FOR CLASS A SPACE ACCELERATES

CONSTRUCTION COMPLETIONS5.2 MSF

AVAILABILITY RATE13.2%

Executive Summary

• Despitealacklustermacroeconomicenvironment,industrialleasingvelocityhasimprovedasuserstrytolock-incurrentlyfavorablerentandleaseterms.

• Industrialdemandwillsoftenoverthenextseveralquarters,inlinewithslowingU.S.andglobalgrowth,afalteringmanufacturingsectorandshrinkinginternationaltrade.

• UserdemandforClassAspacewillcontinuetodrivedownavailabilityrates,leadingtoupwardpressureonleaserates.Constructionactivityisback,includingbothbuild-to-suitandspeculativeprojectsacrosssomeofthenation’slargestindustrialmarkets.

• LowinterestratesandthelimitedsupplyofClassAindustrialproductforsalewillcontinuetodrivecapratesdowninthenearterm.

• IndustrialrealestateperformancecontinuestorecoverassignaledbytheNCREIFPropertyIndex.Industrialrealestatedeliveredanannualizedtotalreturnof13.4%duringQ12012,inlinewiththeoverallindex.

INDUSTRIAL LEASING ACTIVITY: More active than underlying economic trends would suggestDespiteanumberofmajorglobaleconomicheadwindsandaU.S.economythatisfastlosingmomentum,industrialleasingremainedsurprisinglyactiveacrossmostmarketsduringthepastquarter.TheU.S.industrialmarketcontinuedtoshowsignsofrecovery,withthenationalindustrialavailabilityratedroppingby20basispoints(bps)to13.2%inthesecondquarterof2012.Occupiershavebeguntomoveoffthesidelines,seekinglongertermleasestotakeadvantageoflowercompetitiverents,whichareexpectedtorise.“Extendandblend”usertransactionscontinue,butlandlordsaregettingpricingpowerbackasindustrialmarketconditionsimprove.Anumberofindustrialusersarealsoconsideringtheownershipoptiongivenrecord-lowinterestrates.

Warehousedemandwasthemaindriverforspaceslargerthan100,000sq.ft.

Tenantsareupgrading,relocatingfromClassBtoClassAspace,butoptionsaregettingtighter.Manufacturingspacerequirementswerealsoontherise,particularlyinthesoutheasternandnortheasternU.S.markets,dueinparttotheU.S.“manufacturingrenaissance.”

Theprospectforindustrialdemandoverthenextfewmonthswilllikelybeflat,however,givenweakeningheadlineeconomicindicators.U.S.economicdatahasbeendisappointing,leadingtofurtherdownwardrevisionstogrowth.Theoveralleconomy,consumerspending,internationaltradeandthebroadermanufacturingsectorareamongthekeydriversofindustrialdemand,withallpointingtoasoftpatchthroughatleastthenextquarter.

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Source: IHS Global Insight, Interim Forecast, July 2012 Source: IHS Global Insight, Interim Forecast, July 2012

Source: Institute for Supply Management

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TheU.S.economyandindustrialsectorhavebeguntofeelthebruntoftheslowdowninglobalgrowth,whichoriginatedinEuropebuthasnowspreadtoLatinAmericaandAsia.U.S.trade,whichisthesumofimportsandexports,slowedduringthesecondquarterandisexpectedtoactuallydeclineinthethirdquarter.

Figure 1: U.S. Economy Downshifts Figure 2: U.S. International Trade Activity

Figure 3: ISM Surprised to the Downside (ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index [Diffusion index, SA])

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facilitatethetransportationofoilandgasforexports.

Theexpansionofe-retailerscontinuestofueltheneedforwarehouseanddistributionspace.Amazon,theleaderine-retailing,continuestopushforlargerfacilitiesclosetolargemetropolitanareastodecreasedeliverytimes.Astraditionalretailersgrowtheire-retailerstrategies,itwilllikelyincreasedemandforwarehousespaceandshrinktheneedfortraditionalbricks-and-mortarretail,whichistypically10to20timesthecostofawarehousefacility.

TheISMmanufacturingindex,agreatdemand-sideproxyforindustrialrealestate,cameinwellbelowexpectations.TheJuneISMmanufacturingindexslumpedto49.7,thefirstsub-50readingsinceJuly2009.Theforward-lookingdetailsofthesurveywerealsoweak,withbothnewordersandexportorderscominginbelow50asglobalheadwindsappeartobeexertinggreaterpressureontheU.S.industrialsector.ThedipintheISMsuggeststhatthedownshiftinthemanufacturingsectormaybeaccelerating.Themanufacturingdatahadbeenweak,butuntilnowtheISMindexhadlookedbetterthaneithermanufacturingoutputordurablegoodsorders.TheISMsurvey’sdetailssuggestthatthefactoryslowdownwillcontinuethroughatleastthenextfewmonths.

Domesticdemandforlocalgoodshasalsodecreasedoverthepastfewmonthsduetothecontinuedstrugglesinthehousingsectorandweaker-than-anticipatedjobgrowth.AsilverliningforconsumerspendingandtheU.S.economy,however,hasbeenthedeclineincommodityandenergypricesglobally.IntheU.S.,itisestimatedthataone-centdeclineinretailgasolinepricesequatestoroughly$1billionineconomy-widetaxcuts.Thelowerpriceofoilwillprovideafloorunderconsumerspendingandlikelycausedomesticconsumptiontoincreasemoderatelyasconsumersnowhaveahigherlevelofdisposableincome.Thechallengeremainswithbothconsumerandbusinessconfidencelevels;thishasresultedincautiousspendingandinvestmentfrombothsides.

Longer-term,however,weexpectthedriversofindustrialdemandtoshifttoamorepositivetrajectorygivensecularchangesintheglobaleconomy.U.S.manufacturingcompaniescontinuetobenefitfromtherelativelylowervalueoftheU.S.dollar.AcceleratingwageratesinAsiaandhighertransportationcostsarealsofosteringa“manufacturingrenaissance”intheU.S.Overthepastfewmonthstherehavebeenafew

announcementsofnewmanufacturingplants,especiallyinthetransportationsector,inthesouthernU.S.markets.Thesecompanieshavebeendrawnbycompetitivelaborcosts,theavailabilityofrealestateatcompetitiverates,andtheavailabilityofaskilledandhighlyproductiveworkforce.Partofthere-shoringofmanufacturingtotheU.S.hasbeendrivenbytheneedsoftheconsumers,thetimelydeliveryofproducttotheconsumerandthedemandforcustomproductssuchasaspecificcolorordesign.Althoughwiththerecentincreaseindemand,manufacturerswillincreasetheutilizationratesofexistingfacilitiesbeforeseekingadditionalspace.Recentannouncementsinclude:

•Airbus’newassemblyplant—tobebuiltinMobile,Alabama—isscheduledtobecompletedin2015,a$600millioninvestment.

•Fordisadding1,800jobsinLouisville,Kentucky,addingathirdshiftinthefallof2012.

•MagnaSeatingofAmerica,Inc.isbuildinga140,000-sq.-ft.plantinShepherdsville,Kentucky,adding450newjobsin2012.

•AsahiForge,aJapaneseautomotivesupplier,isaddingasecondmanufacturingplantinRichmond,Kentucky,in2012.

•NissanwillincreaseproductionforthenewSentra,adding1,000newjobsinMississippi.

•GMtoadd800jobs,addingathirdshifttoitstruckplantinTexasin2012.

Thedomesticenergysectorishavingamarginalinfluenceontheindustrialsectoraswell,butthiswilllikelychangewiththefurtherdevelopmentinshale,asexistingplantsareadaptedtoaccommodatetheprocessingandtransportofthenewmaterials.Newplantsarealsobeingbuiltinportsto

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Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors

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Completions and Absorption (MSF) Availability Rate (%)

Completions (L) Absorption (L) Availability Rate (R)

Despitethelacklustereconomicenvironment,industrialspacedemandhasbeenrelativelystable.Industrialuserscontinuetofavorhigherquality,newerspacethatcanincreaseproductivityandlowertherealestatecost.Companiesarereviewingeverythingfromtheircurrentlocations,technology,andplantlayoutofequipmenttoincreaseproductionefficiencies.Insomecasesoccupiersaremovingintonewerfacilitiesandreducingspace,comparedtotheirpriorpremises,duetotheincreaseinstoragecapacitywithhigherstackingcapabilityandamoreefficientplantlayout.Thisisdrivingthedemandbytenantstotradeuptonewer,moremodernClassAindustrialfacilities.Thesebuildingstypicallyhavehigherceilings,super-flatfloorsandhavebeenbuiltinthelasttenyears.Evenwiththenationalindustrial

availabilityrateat13.2%,thescarcityofavailablespaceinsuchbuildingsmeansthatClassAindustrialavailabilitiescontinuetoshrink,insomecasesattheexpenseofolderindustrialbuildings.

USERS UPGRADING SPACE

Figure 4: U.S. Industrial Supply and Demand

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Thelackofavailableproductrequiredbyusersisplacingupwardpressureonleaseratesforthebestspace;however,leaseratesforaverageproductremainflat.Inprimarymarkets,rentsfornewerfacilitiesareapproachingreplacementlevelsandspurringnewdevelopment.Newconstructioncontinuestoincreaseacrosskeymarketsduetothedropinavailabilityratesin2012andthelackofnewer,ClassAindustrialspace.Newconstructionfor2012hastotalednearly

11millionsq.ft.,andisontracktoexceedtheindustrialnewsupplycompletedin2011.MostofthisnewspaceconsistsofClassAdesign-buildprojects,althoughanincreaseinspeculativeconstructionprojectsacrossthecountryisemerging.PocketsofspeculativeconstructionactivityareoccurringinNorthernVirginia,Indianapolis,theInlandEmpire,OrangeCounty,SaltLakeCityandAtlanta.Manyofthesemarketshavesingle-digit

industrialavailabilityrates,withavailableClassAindustrialspacevirtuallynon-existent.Duetotheshortsupplyofnewproduct,manyoftheseprojectsareoftenpre-leased.InAtlanta,despitemanyavailablewarehouseoptions,anew630,000-sq.-ft.speculativeprojectisunderconstruction,underscoringthedemandforstate-of-the-artlargewarehouseanddistributionspace.

HERE COMES THE SUPPLY

ThePanamaCanalhasalsoimpactedtheU.S.industrialmarketwithrespecttocompetitionbetweenEastCoastversusWestCoastports.TheracecontinuesintheeasternU.S.gatewaymarketssuchasNewYork,NewJersey,Norfolk,andMiamitoinvestcapitalinpreparingforthecompletionofthePanamaCanalexpansion.Mostoftheinvestmentcontinuestobefordredgingprojects,whichwillallowtheportstoaccommodatelargershipsaswellastheneedtoincreasetheclearanceheightofbridges.Theonlyportthatcancurrently

accommodatethepost-panamaxshipisNorfolk.ThePortAuthorityofNewYorkandNewJerseyhascommitted$1billiontoraisetheBayonneBridge,whichconnectsBayonne,NewJersey,withStatenIsland,NewYork,by64feettoallowlargershipstopass.PortspendingwillincreaseaswenearthecompletionofthePanamaCanalexpansionin2014.

Theinvestmentbenefitsforeasternportswillbeminimalintheshortterm,asthetransportationinfrastructureforgoods

inlandremainsinwesternports.Inthenearterm,itremainsmorecosteffectiveandquickerforshipperstooffloadinwesternportsandtransportgoodsviarailtomajormarketssuchasChicago.EasternportswilllikelybenefitfromincreasedcontainertrafficfromshipsusingtheSuezCanalandexpandingmarketssuchasBraziltothesouth.

THE PANAMA CANAL FACTOR

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Source: Real Capital Analytics

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Domesticandcross-borderinvestorscontinuetocloselymonitorindustrialsectorfundamentalsgivenfavorableleasingvelocityandthelackofClassAoptionsfornewerspace.Strongerrentalrecoveryisbeingusedinunderwritingindustrialacquisitions.Risingsalesvolumereflectsthesurgeininvestorinterest.Theindustrialcapitalmarket

trendssignalimprovingtransactionvolume,accordingtoRealCapitalAnalytics.Overthefirstfivemonthsof2012,industrialtransactionstotaled$10.3billion,a13%increaseoveryear-agolevels.Interestinindustrialpropertyhasresurfaced,asinvestorsincreasinglyeyeportfoliotransactions.Institutionalinvestors,however,continue

tofocusonClassAand/orvalue-addpropertiesinprimarymarkets.Record-lowinterestrates,combinedwithgreaterinstitutionalcapitalthanavailablesupplyofpropertiesforsale,continuetodrivedowncaprates,especiallyforbetterassets.

IndustrialrealestateperformancecontinuestorecoverassignaledbytheNCREIFPropertyIndex.Industrialrealestatedeliveredanannualizedtotalreturnof13.4%duringQ12012,inlinewiththeoverallindex.Thiswasthesecondhighestreturn,trailingonlythemulti-housingsector.Muchofthereturnhasbeenduetoasurgeinappreciationreturnsthathavebeendrivenbycapratecompressionearlierthisyear.The

westernregionoftheU.S.alsodominatesthemarketvalueofindustrialpropertiesintheNPIandassuch,thesolidperformanceofindustrialmarketsinthewestcontinuetodriveoverallindustrialperformance.

INDUSTRIAL CAPITAL MARKETS

Figure 5: Institutional Capital Targeting Industrial Assets

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87Source: CBRE Research

Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and

completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of the CBRE Global Chief Economist.

SEATTLE249,079 SF10.3%$6.49

SAN JOSE243,759 SF13.5%$11.42

PHOENIX275,326 SF15.0%$6.84

DENVER223,929 SF7.8%$6.21

CHICAGO1,188,170 SF9.7%$3.99

COLUMBUS208,190 SF12.6%$3.04

INDIANAPOLIS238,848 SF9.1%$4.28

DETROIT511,766 SF11.9%$4.47CLEVELAND290,783 SF8.3%$4.59

MILWAUKEE226,563 SF

11.8%$3.76

ST. LOUIS222,407 SF

14.9%$4.34

ATLANTA551,590 SF18.8%$3.29

NEW JERSEYCENTRAL395,459 SF10.4%$4.37

PHILADELPHIA401,433 SF12.5%$3.86

BALTIMORE153,169 SF15.5%$4.79

NEW JERSEYNORTHERN409,442 SF10.1%$6.11

MIAMI211,710 SF9.3%$4.68

HOUSTON448,767 SF9.2%$3.91

SAN DIEGO200,759 SF

15.0%$10.32

LOSANGELES

993,073 SF6.8%$6.52

INLANDEMPIRE403,354 SF11.8%$4.08

ORANGECOUNTY252,457 SF7.4%$7.56

DALLAS/FT. WORTH721,121 SF13.4%$3.70

KANSASCITY233,654 SF12.3%$4.53

MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL

326,839 SF10.2%$4.70

CINCINNATI267,221 SF9.5%$3.79

SEATTLE249,079 SF10.3%$6.49

SAN JOSE243,759 SF13.5%$11.42

PHOENIX275,326 SF15.0%$6.84

DENVER223,929 SF7.8%$6.21

CHICAGO1,188,170 SF9.7%$3.99

COLUMBUS208,190 SF12.6%$3.04

INDIANAPOLIS238,848 SF9.1%$4.28

DETROIT511,766 SF11.9%$4.47CLEVELAND290,783 SF8.3%$4.59

MILWAUKEE226,563 SF

11.8%$3.76

ST. LOUIS222,407 SF

14.9%$4.34

ATLANTA551,590 SF18.8%$3.29

NEW JERSEYCENTRAL395,459 SF10.4%$4.37

PHILADELPHIA401,433 SF12.5%$3.86

BALTIMORE153,169 SF15.5%$4.79

NEW JERSEYNORTHERN409,442 SF10.1%$6.11

MIAMI211,710 SF9.3%$4.68

HOUSTON448,767 SF9.2%$3.91

SAN DIEGO200,759 SF

15.0%$10.32

LOSANGELES

993,073 SF6.8%$6.52

INLANDEMPIRE403,354 SF11.8%$4.08

ORANGECOUNTY252,457 SF7.4%$7.56

DALLAS/FT. WORTH721,121 SF13.4%$3.70

KANSASCITY233,654 SF12.3%$4.53

MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL

326,839 SF10.2%$4.70

CINCINNATI267,221 SF9.5%$3.79

1,000,000,000 SF

200,000,000 SF

MARKETSTOCK (SF x 1000)AVAILABILITY RATENNN ASKING RENT

*The arrows indicate a trend and do not represent a positive or negative value for the underlying statistic (e.g., net absorption could be negative, but still represent a positive trend over the time period).

Figure 6: 25 Largest Industrial Markets - Q2 2012

The national availability rate masks regional performance. According to second quarter figures, west coast markets such as Los Angeles (6.8%) and Orange County (7.4%) are reporting lower industrial availability rates than any other market. By contrast, east coast markets such as Stamford (25.9%), Boston (20.9%) and Atlanta (18.8%) report among the highest industrial availability rates in the nation. Industrial markets in older east coast cities suffer from a higher degree of older and obsolete product.

From a regional perspective, the largest increases in absorption occurred in Chicago, the Inland Empire and New Jersey, respectively, and were mostly driven by the demand in Class A industrial warehouse and distribution space.

REGIONAL OVERVIEW: SUPER-REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION CENTERS OUTPERFORM

Q2 2012 Current QoQ YoY

Availability Rate 13.2% i i

Lease Rate $5.46 h h

Net Absorption* 26.4 MSF i i

Construction Completions 5.2 MSF i i

NATIONAL QUICK STATS

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IndustrialavailabilityinCentralNewJerseyremainedflatat10.4%,whereasavailabilitydecreased40bpsto10.1%inNorthernNewJerseyduringthesameperiod.TheaverageaskingleaserateforindustrialpropertyinNewJerseyincreasedduringthesecondquarterforthefirsttimeinthepastfouryears.Thestate’saskingleaserateisstill$1.07belowitspeakratesetinQ22008,althoughthatgapisexpectedtotighten,especiallyforClassAindustrialspace.

CentralNewJerseycontinuestoattractthemajorityofdemandfornewspace,mostlyconsistingofthirdpartylogisticsaswellasconsumerproductscompanies.ActivityattheportsofNew

Threenewconstructionprojectsamountingto1.17millionsq.ft.brokegroundduringQ22012.Morethanhalfofthesenewstartsarebeingbuiltonspeculativedevelopmentandtherecentincreaseinnewconstructionispushinglandpriceshigher.

YorkandNewJerseyremainsstrong,addingtothedemandforwarehouseanddistributionspace.InthenorthernportionofNewJersey,theMeadowlandssubmarketcontinuestoattractsignificanttenantdemandwithitshighconcentrationofindustrialspaceincloseproximitytoNewYorkCity.

Ascomparedtojustafewquartersago,industrialconstructionactivityinNewJerseyispickingup,duetoincreasingdemandandlimitednumberofoptionsforlarge,modernindustrialusers.FourindustrialbuildingswerecompletedinQ22012:threebuild-to-suitprojectstotaling652,155sq.ft.andone101,600-sq.-ft.speculativeproject.

NEW JERSEY

GREATER LOS ANGELES

TheGreaterLosAngelesindustrialavailabilityratefellto6.8%,a10bpsdecreasefromthepreviousquarter;thisrepresentsoneofthelowestratesintheU.S.Theincreasedvolumeofportactivityhascreatedanevengreaterneedfordistributionspaceforlargerandmoremoderndistributionfacilitiesofover100,000sq.ft.Inaddition,therehasbeenanincreaseindemandforindustrialspaceunder50,000sq.ft.,mainlycomingfromsmallstart-upcompanies.

TheInlandEmpireisdominatingmarketactivityinSouthernCalifornia,aslarge

ClassAdistributioncentersareinhighdemandbylogisticscompaniesandretailerslookingtoexpanddistributioncapabilities.Activitylevelsareveryhighinthe100,000-sq.-ft.category.ThebulkofconstructionactivityinSouthernCaliforniaisalsooccurringintheInlandEmpire,with7.3millionsq.ft.currentlyunderconstruction(thehighestfiguresincepre-recession),ofwhich38%—or2.8millionsq.ft.—isspeculativeconstruction.

InLosAngelesCounty,Commerce,SouthBayandSanFernandohavebeenparticularlystrong,withdemandfrom

bothmanufacturingcompaniesandwholesalers.Themostactivesizerangeisbetween50,000sq.ft.and75,000sq.ft.—infact,approximately63%ofQ22012activitywasbetween10,000sq.ft.and100,000sq.ft.AlthoughconstructionisfairlyactiveinLosAngelesCounty,with1.8millionsq.ft.,themarkethasnotexperiencedthesamegrowththattheInlandEmpireiswitnessing.However,duringthenextsixto12months,thelackofClassAindustrialspacewilllikelyspuranincreasedvolumeofconstruction,includingspeculativeprojects.

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*Percentage point change Source: CBRE Research

DALLAS

CHICAGO

ATLANTA

TheindustrialavailabilityrateremainedflatinDallasat13.4%forQ22012.Mostoftherecentdemandhasbeenfromretailersforwarehouseanddistributionbuildings.HomeDepotrecentlyoccupiedalargeblockofspace,andKohl’swillbeopeningafacilitylaterthisyear.Themostactivesubmarket,GreatSouthwest/Arlington,postedthelargestamountofabsorptioninthefirsthalfof2012,at2.8millionsq.ft.total.

Chicago’sindustrialmarketcontinuestorecover,withtheavailabilityratedecreasingto9.7%,achangeof40bpsfromthepreviousquarter.Threeoutofthetop10dealswerepaper-relatedcompanies(KimberlyClarkat716,318sq.ft.;DomtarPaperwith453,364sq.ft.;andInternationalPaperat316,000sq.ft.).Machinery,metalanddurablegoodsalsohadstrongshowingsduringthesecondquarter.TheFarSWsuburbanmarketinChicago(alsoknownastheI-55corridor)dominatedleasingactivityduringQ22012,withmorethan1.7millionsq.ft.ofactivity.Thisaccountedfor24%ofallleasingactivitythatoccurredinQ22012.Thissubmarkethasnewerbigboxproduct,lowerleaseratesandeasyaccesstoexpressways,whichwillkeepitintenants’favorfortheforeseeablefuture.

TheindustrialavailabilityrateinAtlantaincreasedto18.8%,adifferenceof20bpsfromthepreviousquarter.Demandforwarehouseanddistributionspacefromthird-partylogisticsfirmshasincreased.BulkwarehouseClassAspaceinthecoresubmarketsofNortheastandSouthAtlantacontinuestobethemostsought-after.Thedemand

Leaseratesarestartingtoincrease,primarilyduetoashrinkingavailabilityofspace.Mostnewconstructionhasconsistedofbuild-to-suitactivity.Twospeculativeprojectswererecentlyannounced:approximately661,000sq.ft.inSouthDallasfromProLogis;and529,000sq.ft.inNorthwestDallasfromIDI.

Fornewindustrialsupply,twoprojectsbrokegroundinthesecondquarter:a239,000-sq.-ft.build-to-suitforFedEx,anda604,000-sq.-ft.speculativeproject,bothofwhichareintheFarSWsuburbansubmarket.Inaddition,therearesixprojectscurrentlyunderconstructiontotaling1.9millionsq.ft.,ofwhichtwoarespeculativeprojectswhiletheotherfourarebuild-to-suit.ThelasttimeChicagohadthismuchspeculativeconstructionwasin2008.AnincreaseindemandiscausingrentalratestoincreasemarginallywhilelandlordsareofferinglesstenantincentivesandmovingrentsupforClassAindustrialbuildings.

formodernindustrialbuildingshascausedolderproductintheFultonindustrialmarkettolagduetotheageandobsolescenceofolderindustrialbuildings.Newconstructionhasbeenlimiteduntilnow,withmostlybuild-to-suitactivitytakingplaceinsouthAtlanta.

Figure 7: Industrial Market Snapshot

Lowest Availability Rates (%)LOS ANGELES METRO 6.8ORANGE COUNTY 7.4WESTCHESTER COUNTY 7.7DENVER 7.8CLEVELAND 8.3

Highest Availability Rates (%)STAMFORD 25.9BOSTON 20.9AUSTIN 19.4ATLANTA 18.8WALNUT CREEK 18.5

Figure 8: Largest Quarterly Decreases and Increases*

Decreases in AvailabilityCOLUMBUS -2.9DETROIT -1.9ORLANDO -1.8HARTFORD -1.0BALTIMORE & STAMFORD -0.9

Increases in AvailabilityWESTCHESTER COUNTY 1.7WALNUT CREEK 1.3SAN ANTONIO 1.2JACKSONVILLE 1.0LONG ISLAND 0.8

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* Maryland Suburban and Virginia Northern represent Washington, DC area.U.S. national figures provided by CBRE Econometric Advisors (CBRE EA), all other figures compiled by CBRE Research

Figure 9: Industrial Availability - Q2 2012

NNN Asking Rate ($) Availability Rate (%)Market Region Size Rank Q2 12 Q2 12 Q1 12 Q2 11BALTIMORE 29 4.79 15.5 16.4 17.8BOSTON 30 6.45 20.9 21.3 23.1HARTFORD 41 4.76 14.9 15.9 17.2LONG ISLAND 44 8.39 14.3 13.5 15.0MARYLAND SUBURBAN* 39 8.06 15.6 16.2 16.8NEW JERSEY CENTRAL 10 4.37 10.4 10.4 12.1NEW JERSEY NORTHERN 7 6.11 10.1 10.5 10.0NORFOLK 38 4.53 12.6 12.7 11.4PHILADELPHIA 9 3.86 12.5 12.7 12.7STAMFORD 50 7.00 25.9 26.8 21.1VIRGINIA NORTHERN* 42 10.22 15.3 14.7 15.9WESTCHESTER COUNTY 51 10.74 7.7 6.0 4.5East 12.9 13.2 13.7CHICAGO 1 3.99 9.7 10.1 10.5CINCINNATI 14 3.79 9.5 10.1 10.2CLEVELAND 12 4.59 8.3 8.5 9.9COLUMBUS 24 3.04 12.6 15.5 16.1DETROIT 5 4.47 11.9 13.8 15.1INDIANAPOLIS 18 4.28 9.1 9.3 10.9KANSAS CITY 19 4.53 12.3 12.3 12.3MILWAUKEE 20 3.76 11.8 11.1 12.1MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL 11 4.70 10.2 10.9 11.5ST. LOUIS 22 4.34 14.9 15.1 15.0Midwest 10.7 11.3 12.0ATLANTA 4 3.29 18.8 18.6 19.2AUSTIN 43 6.84 19.4 19.1 22.0DALLAS/FT. WORTH 3 3.70 13.4 13.4 14.7FT. LAUDERDALE 37 6.63 11.6 11.1 13.4HOUSTON 6 3.91 9.2 9.3 10.3JACKSONVILLE 36 3.98 16.5 15.5 14.7MIAMI 23 4.68 9.3 9.2 10.5NASHVILLE 28 3.78 15.6 15.3 15.1ORLANDO 34 5.00 17.5 19.3 19.5PALM BEACH 45 6.44 12.8 13.3 13.7SAN ANTONIO 48 4.88 16.7 15.5 17.8TAMPA 32 5.02 13.4 13.5 13.3South 14.0 13.9 14.9ALBUQUERQUE 46 6.50 12.0 11.7 11.4DENVER 21 6.21 7.8 8.4 9.2INLAND EMPIRE 8 4.08 11.8 12.5 12.2LAS VEGAS 35 5.74 13.5 13.2 11.4LOS ANGELES METRO 2 6.52 6.8 6.9 7.4OAKLAND 31 5.28 9.2 9.4 10.3ORANGE COUNTY 15 7.56 7.4 7.8 8.5PHOENIX 13 6.84 15.0 15.4 16.2PORTLAND 26 4.44 9.7 9.6 10.5SACRAMENTO 27 5.16 16.8 16.7 16.0SALT LAKE CITY 33 4.80 8.7 9.4 9.3SAN DIEGO 25 10.32 15.0 15.4 16.2SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA 40 18.12 9.5 9.9 9.3SAN JOSE 17 11.42 13.5 13.7 15.2SEATTLE 16 6.49 10.3 10.7 11.8TUCSON 47 6.65 15.5 15.5 12.7WALNUT CREEK 49 7.20 18.5 17.2 17.5West 10.4 10.6 11.1UNITED STATES 13.2 13.4 14.0

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Global ReSeaRch and conSUltInG This report was prepared by the CBRE U.S. Research Team which forms part of CBRE Global Research and Consulting – a network of preeminent researchers and consultants who collaborate to provide real estate market research, econometric forecasting and consulting solutions to real estate investors and occupiers around the globe.

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Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we

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Edward J. Schreyer, SIOR Executive Managing Director Brokerage Services, Americas CBRE t: +1 214 863 3042 e: [email protected]

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