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Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources
Case study:Water availability in Northern India
“Regional climate and impact modelling, combined with effective engagement can help inform adaptation policy ranging from flood management to drought alleviation.”
Dr Andy Wiltshire, Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Manager, Met Office
ChallengeNorthern India’s hydrological system, also known as the ‘Water Tower of Asia’, is made up of the summer monsoon precipitation and the growth and melt of the snow and ice cover in the Himalayas. Projected population growth and the currently unsustainable consumption of groundwater across the north and east of India make this region particularly vulnerable to climate change. This is expected to greatly affect available water resources and, as a result, the agricultural economy on the Indian peninsula.
SolutionsA European Union project was created with the aim to assess the impact climate change will have on water resources and agriculture in Northern India and to provide recommendations for appropriate and efficient response strategies.
The project involved the Energy and Resources Institute (India), University of Salford (UK), Alterra (the Netherlands), the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi (India), the University of Fribourg (Switzerland), the Max Planck Society (Germany), Nagoya University (Japan) and the Met Office. Both environmental and socio-economic data was used to develop knowledge on water availability.
The Met Office’s regional climate model and existing climate and hydrological data were used to produce climate projections up to 2100. The model was run for various climate change scenarios and the anticipated impacts on water resources were analysed, with particular focus on changes in snow and glacier melting and monsoon patterns.
BenefitsWith increased knowledge of climate impacts, project partners were able to work with associates to investigate adaptation options based on sound science.
The climate projections helped to inform recommendations for short-and long-term adaptation strategies to cope with extreme hydrological events. A summary of major findings and recommendations was published to provide information to policymakers.
The findings of the research have already enabled communities to prioritise adaptations with immediate benefits. Current risks such as the increased flow of rivers due to the melting of snow and glaciers have also been addressed.
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