Carbon Sequestration in European Agricultural Soils by 2010 - Potential, Uncertainties, Policy Impacts Annette Freibauer [afreib@bgc-jena.mpg.de] Mark.

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<ul><li>Slide 1</li></ul> <p>Carbon Sequestration in European Agricultural Soils by 2010 - Potential, Uncertainties, Policy Impacts Annette Freibauer [afreib@bgc-jena.mpg.de] Mark D. A. Rounsevell Pete Smith Jan Verhagen UCL Slide 2 Vleeshouwers &amp; Verhagen, GCB 2002 C fluxes in SOC in the 1 st commitment period: BAU t C ha -1 y -1 Cropland mean flux: +0.83 (0.40) t C ha -1 y -1 (source) Total in EU-15: 77 (37) Tg C y -1 Grassland mean flux: -0.60 (0.65) t C ha -1 y -1 (sink?) Total in EU-15: -30 (32) Tg C y -1 Total agricultural soils Total in EU-15: 48 (37) Tg C y -1 (source) Slide 3 Most promising measures 1 Promote organic input on arable land instead of grassland (crop residues, cover crops, FYM, compost, sewage sludge) 2 Permanent revegetation of arable set-aside land (e.g. afforestation) or extensivation of arable production by introduction of perennial components 3 Biofuel production with short-rotation coppice plantations and perennial grasses on arable set-aside land 4 Promote organic farming 5 Promote permanently shallow water table in farmed peatland 6 Zero tillage / conservation tillage Slide 4 CroplandGrasslandPeatland Potential per unit area Uncertainty: spatial variability, soil and climate types; no human components Slide 5 Factors limiting carbon sequestration Sink saturation Non-permanence Availability of land and resources Adoption of measures / contiguous? Slide 6 Area and resources available total area limitationssuitable area million ha million ha Cropland 73 more organic input organic material ~60? reduced tillage climate, soil 63? extensification, perennials set-aside land 7.3 bioenergy crops set-aside land 7.3 organic farming now 2% of cropland 7 Grassland (in rotation) 8.4 longer duration of leys no need: set-aside 7.3 from leys to permanent grass no need: set-aside 7.3 Peatland in agriculture 3.6 restoration of drained soil highly productive Availability of land and resources / potential Soil carbon sequestration (Mt CO 2 y -1 ) Measure Limiting factor Theoretical Technical Economic? all agric. Given feasible land used limitation by 2012 Cropland Zero-tillage Suitable land = 63 Mha 10389.28 8.93 Reduced-tillage Suitable land = 63 Mha &lt; 103 -266 0 0 Slide 18 Availability of land and resources / potential Soil carbon sequestration (Mt CO 2 y -1 ) Measure Limiting factor Theoretical Technical Economic? all agric. Given feasible land used limitation by 2012 Farmed organic soils Protection and Assuming all cultivated restorationorganic soils are restored &gt;36 &gt;36 &gt;36 Avoid row crops and tubersNo incentive 0 GHG: 2 0? 0? Avoid deep ploughing No incentive 3 GHG: 3 0? 0? More shallow Possibly attractive on grass- water table land when new melioration is needed = 50 % of grass- 36 GHG: 36 15 15 land area = 1.5 Mha Convert arable to grassland No incentive 3 GHG: 3 0? 0? Convert arable Subsidies compensate income to woodlandlosses: adoption rate max. 2 GHG: 3 1 1 50 % of arable area = 0.3 Mha Slide 19 Non-CAP effects Technological change (plant &amp; animal breeding) World markets &amp; international trade agreements Changing consumer preferences less meat, shifts from olive to sunflower oil, etc. Opportunity costs of labour, i.e. competition with other sectors Land degradation (e.g. erosion) Irrigation water availability and quality Education and information dissemination </p>

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