car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering lloyds register-fairplay research car...

Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market founderingLloyd’s Register-Fairplay Researchwww.lrfairplay.com/research

Car industry crash & vehicle Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market founderingshipping market foundering

””Crash boom bang” Crash boom bang”


AgendaAgenda

Status right nowStatus right now

Background and LV forecastsBackground and LV forecasts

Supply of shipsSupply of ships

The balanceThe balance

ConclusionsConclusions


Port calls –rapid declinePort calls –rapid decline

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2006 2007 2008 2009

Week

Index J

an

uary

20

07

=1

00

, 6

week a

vera

ge

Vehicle roro


Ships laying idleShips laying idle

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

January February March

Source: AIS-Live

Sh

ips

bei

ng

id

le (

les

s th

an

100

nm

in

th

irty

day

s) %

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Sh

ips

be

ing

id

le (

les

s t

ha

n 1

00

nm

in

th

irty

da

ys

)

% idle, # % idle, ceu No ships, right hand axis


Production of cars, per regionProduction of cars, per region

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Pro

du

cti

on

per

reg

ion

, mill

ion

ve

hic

les

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Pro

du

ctio

n,

tota

l ve

hic

les,

mil

lio

ns

Asia N America West Europe East Europe S America Africa Total production, right axis

Forecast as of 2009-03

Source: IHS Global Insight


Sales of cars, per regionSales of cars, per region

0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Sal

es p

er r

egio

n,

mil

lio

n v

ehic

les

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Sal

es,

tota

l ve

hic

les,

mil

lio

ns

Asia N America West Europe East Europe Middle East

C America, Caribbean Other S America Africa Total sales, right axis




Production – sales, per regionProduction – sales, per region

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Pro

du

cti

on

re

du

ced

wit

h s

ales

, mill

ion

ve

hic

les

Asia Americas Europe Middle East Other



+ 100% + 100% in 7 years in 7 years

!!!!


Ordering behavior, 1970 - 2008Ordering behavior, 1970 - 2008

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006

Vih

icle

ca

rrie

rs, C

on

trac

tin

g,

Nu

mb

er o

f S

hip

s

South Korea Japan China Other Asia Europe Americas Rest of World2009-04

1999-20031999-2003

191 ships191 ships

avg: 4,764 ceuavg: 4,764 ceu

2004-20082004-2008

451 ships451 ships

Avg: 5,307 ceuAvg: 5,307 ceu


0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Veh

icle

Car

rie

r D

eliv

eri

es,

MC

EU

0

1

2

3

4

5

Veh

icle

Car

rie

r F

lee

t D

evel

op

me

nt,

MC

EU

In Service Removed Orderbook

Cancelled Fleet Development

OrderbookOrderbook

1.2M ceu =1.2M ceu =

38% fleet38% fleet

9.3% pa2004-2008

Vehicle carrier fleet changes Vehicle carrier fleet changes (register data)(register data)


0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Ve

hic

le C

arr

ier

De

liv

eri

es

, M

CE

U

0.0

0.8

1.6

2.4

3.2

4.0

4.8

Ve

hic

le C

arr

ier

Fle

et

De

ve

lop

me

nt,

MC

EU

In Service Removal Forecast Removed Late Deliveries Delivery Forecast

New Order Moved Cancellations Fleet Development

Vehicle carrier fleet forecastVehicle carrier fleet forecast

5.3%forecast

2009-2013

2004-20082004-2008

Fleet growth Fleet growth 9.3 % yearly9.3 % yearly

FORECASTFORECAST

2009-20132009-2013

Removals 647k Removals 647k ceu (+1,575%)ceu (+1,575%)


0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

7.5

9.0

10.5

12.0

13.5

15.0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Lig

ht

ve

hic

le p

rod

uc

tio

n r

ed

uc

ed

wit

h s

ale

s,

mil

lio

n v

eh

icle

s

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Ve

hic

le c

arr

ier

fle

et

Mil

lio

n C

EU

Asia (Production - Sales) Vehicle carriers


Source: Light vehicle, IHS Global Insight: AutoInsight

Vehicle carrier, Supply vs Demand,Vehicle carrier, Supply vs Demand, the Asia Indicatorthe Asia Indicator

-32% +15%

+18%The Asia The Asia Indicator Indicator illustrates the illustrates the base demand base demand for vehicle for vehicle carriers carriers capacity over capacity over timetime


Vehicle carrier, Supply vs Demand,Vehicle carrier, Supply vs Demand, the Asia Indicator, seaborne tonnes carsthe Asia Indicator, seaborne tonnes cars

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

7.5

9.0

10.5

12.0

13.5

15.0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Lig

ht

veh

icle

pro

du

cti

on

re

du

ced

wit

h s

ale

s, m

illi

on

veh

icle

s

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Veh

icle

ca

rrie

r fl

eet

Mil

lio

n C

EU

Asia (Production - Sales) Total tonne index Vehicle carriers


Source: Light vehicle, IHS Global Insight: AutoInsight


ConclusionsConclusions

– Average annual net fleet capacity Average annual net fleet capacity growth 2009-2013: growth 2009-2013: 5.3%5.3%

– Average annual demand growth Average annual demand growth 2009-2013: 2009-2013: 2.9%2.9%

– Vehicle carriers (and terminals) under Vehicle carriers (and terminals) under threat from containerizationthreat from containerization

– Can take cargo from conventional Can take cargo from conventional roro and general cargororo and general cargo

– Turning point: Late-2010 for cars, Turning point: Late-2010 for cars, earlier for project cargoes – modest earlier for project cargoes – modest levels to 2013levels to 2013


Thank you!Thank you!

Niklas BengtssonNiklas [email protected]@lrfairplay.com

car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering lloyds register-fairplay research car...

Documents

ceu slide

vehicle carriers capacity

vehicle carrier fleet

vehicle carrier fleet

time slide

data slide

idle slide

fleet growth