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April 11, 2011 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 1 | Long Term Growth In Support for Legalization

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Page 1: Cannabis & Politics

April 11, 2011

Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 1 |

Long Term Growth In Support for Legalization

Page 2: Cannabis & Politics

April 11, 2011

Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 2 | Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 2 |

Page 2

Different Rates of Change by Cohort

Older cohort is slow to change

Baby boomers are rapidly becoming

supportive

Page 3: Cannabis & Politics

April 11, 2011

Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 3 | Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 3 |

California Proposition 19 (2010): Poll ResultsAllows people 21 years old or older to possess, cultivate, or transport marijuana for personal use. Permits local governments to regulate and tax commercial production and sale of marijuana to people 21 years old or older. Prohibits people from possessing marijuana on school grounds, using it in public, smoking it while minors are present, or providing it to anyone under 21 years old. Maintains current prohibitions against driving while impaired.

Page 4: Cannabis & Politics

April 11, 2011

Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 4 | Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 4 |

Nearly Half of CA Voters Still Supported Legalization

46 4954

41

0

20

40

60

80

100

Yes/Favor

No/Oppose

Regardless of how you feel about Proposition 19, do you think the use of marijuana should be made legal or not? OR Regardless of how you feel about Proposition 19, do you think marijuana should be legalized?

Proposition 19(Based on election results)

Support for Legalization(Based on GQRR post-election survey)

-8 +8

Source: California post-election study

Page 5: Cannabis & Politics

April 11, 2011

Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 5 |

Would Have Been Much Closer in Presidential Year

46 4954 51

0

20

40

60

80

100

Yes/Favor

No/Oppose

Regardless of how you feel about Proposition 19, do you think the use of marijuana should be made legal or not? OR Regardless of how you feel about Proposition 19, do you think marijuana should be legalized?

Proposition 19(Based on election results)

Proposition 19(Re-weighted to reflect presidential year

turnout)

-8 -2

Source: California post-election study

Page 6: Cannabis & Politics

April 11, 2011

Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 6 |

Colorado Time Series

Medical MJ Medical MJ ballot but not ballot but not

countedcounted(1998)(1998)

Yes on Legalization Ballot

Support Medical Marijuana

Support for Legalization

PassedPassedMedical MJMedical MJ

(more liberal)(more liberal)(2000)(2000)

RejectedRejectedLegalization Legalization

InitiativeInitiative(2006)(2006)

*Note: The original medical MJ initiative was placed on the ballot but votes were not counted b/c a state court ruled that

not enough signatures had been collected for it to qualify for the ballot.

Passed Passed Dispensaries Dispensaries (2010)(2010)

Page 7: Cannabis & Politics

Defining Terms

“Public Education” seeks to change views about social or political issues

It is similar to marketing, except the product here is an idea rather than a tangible good

Because we are seeking to change voter opinion about a specific policy change in advance of an election, a more precise term might be “advance voter education”

Page 8: Cannabis & Politics

WHY VOTER EDUCATION?We have run 24 marijuana initiatives in recent years, with the result

split evenly between 12 wins and 12 losses.

EVERY marijuana victory began at or near 60% support CA 1996, AZ 1996, OR 1998, WA 1998, NV 1998, AK 1998, ME 1999, CO 2000, MT 2004, MI 2008, MA 2008, AZ 2010

Where support began below 60%, we lost EVERY time NV 2002, 2006; CO 2006; SD 2006, 2010; WA 1997; AK 2000, 2004; OR 2004; CA 2010

Even with support starting at 60%, we lost on occasion OH 2002, OR 2010

Today, NO initiative states have 60% support for legalization or decrim, and very few have such support medical marijuana

But, a handful of states are near the threshold of support for significant reforms

Public Education is necessary to change the ground before the campaign begins

Page 9: Cannabis & Politics

Our Goal

Change voter opinion about a specific policy reform in a particular state

NOT improving general attitudes about marijuana or marijuana policy

NOT speaking to a general audience NOT speaking to a national audience

Page 10: Cannabis & Politics

Public Education vs. Political Campaign

Takes place 1-2 years BEFORE election

Targets swing voters Message = indirect or

informative, making swing voters more comfortable

Activities include (1) identify targets, (2) test messages, (3) paid communications, (4) measure result in changed opinion

Outcome: shift overall opinion among a discrete group by 5-10 points and build intensity of support

Takes place mainly in the 6 month lead up to the election

Targets supportersMessage = remind supporters

why they agree with us and ask them to vote YES

Activities include (1) draft ballot measure, (2) collect signatures, (3) build coalition and grassroots, (4) generate earned media, (5) advertise on eve of election, (6) mobilize supporters to vote

Outcome: maximize YES votes on election day

Page 11: Cannabis & Politics

April 11, 2011

Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 11 |

How to Talk About This Issue

Consistently and across multiple states, two arguments emerge as the most convincing;

— Legalizing and taxing marijuana would allow state and local governments to generate millions of dollars a year in additional tax revenue and help pay for things like public education, health care, law enforcement and drug treatment prevention

— Legalizing marijuana for adults would free up millions of dollars in law enforcement resources, allowing police and prosecutors to go after violent criminals. It would also free up jail space so that we can keep violent offenders in prison

It is important to recognize that most voters are hostile to marijuana and believe it is a social toxin; in the near-term, the key is convincing voters who do not like the drug to support it anyway.

Voters need to believe a new marijuana distribution system will be controlled.

Need to provide reassurances on driving issues (“driving while high”), access to children and work place safety.

Page 12: Cannabis & Politics

61

8 110

20

40

60

80

More Likely Less Likely (No Difference/DK/Ref)

78

12

Strongest Response: “same way alcohol is regulated” (CO)

Much More/Less LikelySomewhat More/Less Likely

I am going to read you specific provisions that could be included in ballot language for a measure to reform marijuana laws in Colorado in some way. For each one, please tell whether it would make you more likely to support a measure reforming marijuana

laws in Colorado, less likely to support a measure reforming marijuana laws in Colorado or if it would make no difference either way?

Net: +66

Regulates marijuana the same way that alcohol is regulated, such as no marijuana can be sold to minors, only licensed distributors can sell marijuana at state regulated stores, strong penalties for driving under the influence of marijuana and maintaining the right of employers

to fire employees who come to work impaired.

*Data From Colorado Survey

Page 13: Cannabis & Politics

April 11, 2011

Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 13 |

Writing Good Ballot Language

Even when supporting reform, voters want to hear some reassurance that the distribution system will be controlled.

Using language that treats marijuana "like alcohol" proves very effective (and familiar) in reassuring voters. This is one of the most important findings of the Colorado work.

Most important is language around keeping marijuana away from children.

Voters want marijuana to be taxed, but not the degree that it is counterproductive. A $50 tax, for example, seems punitive and counter productive because it will create the same black market and crime problem that legalization is supposed to reduce.

Voters are more ambiguous about protecting the rights of legal marijuana users, particularly child custody rights.

Language allowing home cultivation of marijuana is an overall liability, but the base react strongly to home cultivation prohibition.