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Canadian Visits to Hawaii

January 2016

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Total Visits

• On a year-over-year basis, Canadian visits to Hawaii fell by 11.8% in January 2016.

• Canadians made almost 64 thousand visits to Hawaii during the month compared with 72 thousand in January 2015.

• Even though overall visitation declined, direct arrivals grew by 1.0% during the month.

• In contrast, indirect arrivals fell by almost one-half as less capacity was offered from Bellingham and other U.S. border cities, and fewer Canadians departed from an American airport.

• The share of direct arrivals has grown to 82% of total visits. This compares to 65% in 2013 when the loonie was at par with the greenback.

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36,239

45,293 48,006

43,881

51,853

58,773

64,063 67,323

71,167 72,343

63,798

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Canadian Visits to Hawaii January each year

-11.8%

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Hawaii Visits by Month

Source: Hawaii Tourism Authority

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 % change

January 58,773 64,063 67,323 71,167 72,343 63,798 -11.8%

February 58,598 65,031 65,290 66,233 65,255

March 68,356 72,882 74,685 74,311 77,237

April 44,482 45,937 42,605 49,548 45,422

May 23,591 22,951 29,465 29,769 26,459

June 16,159 16,025 18,097 18,132 18,715

July 25,467 25,394 26,777 24,643 26,989

August 27,458 27,232 28,222 25,924 28,214

September 19,664 19,145 19,622 19,685 20,504

October 29,565 28,592 30,596 30,001 29,395

November 40,008 44,357 45,528 45,358 43,197

December 65,445 67,535 68,800 69,794 63,508

TOTAL 477,566 499,144 517,011 524,565 517,239

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Canadian Visits by Hawaiian Island

Canadian Visits by Island (January each year)

2015 2016 % change

O’ahu 26,596 22,842 -14.1%

Kaua’i 11,178 9,754 -12.7%

Maui 37,438 33,780 -9.8%

Molokai 735 792 7.8%

Lanai 585 690 17.9%

Big Island 15,167 12,530 -17.4%

TOTAL 91,699 80,388 -12.3%

Compared to a year ago, visits to Molokai grew 7.8% in January 2016 while visits to Lanai were up 17.9%

Visits to O’ahu, Kaua’i and the Big Island fell by -14.8% during the month.

In addition, visits to Maui–the most visited Hawaiian island–decreased by -9.8% compared to January 2015.

Note: As visits to more than one island can be made during a single trip, the number of visits by island adds up to more than the overall number of visits made to Hawaii.

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Indirect Arrivals Fall Along with Canadian Dollar

$0.65

$0.70

$0.75

$0.80

$0.85

$0.90

$0.95

$1.00

$1.05

$1.10

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

indirect visits (January each year)

CAD/USD (January average)

• Compared to January 2015, arrivals via US airports fell by almost one-half while direct arrivals remained stable.

• In January 2016, just 18% of Canadian visitors arrived in Hawaii via the US compared with 28% one year ago.

• The loonie fell to a 13-year low in January, trading below 69 cents US.

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Percent of Visits via Canada and the US January each year

15% 14% 11%

18%

31% 33% 31%

42% 38%

32%

43%

34% 35% 34%

28%

18%

85% 86% 89%

82%

69% 67% 69%

58% 62%

68%

57%

66% 65% 66%

72%

82%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

% via US

% via Canada

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Most Canadians are Repeat Visitors

• Seven-in-ten (70%) Canadians who visited Hawaii in January 2016 were repeat visitors.

• In January 2007, 36% of Canadians to Hawaii were “first time visitors” compared with 30% in 2016.

• Repeat visits have grown due to an increase in the number of Canadians that own vacation property in Hawaii.

• Since 2007, January stays in condos and timeshares have grown by 86% and 157% respectively, while stays in hotels have increased by just 11%.

Photo credit: Hawaii Tourism Authority (HTA) / Tor Johnson

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First-Time vs. Repeat Visitors January

33.6

34.7

36.2

34.5

29.7

31.9

34.1

30.4

29.8

28.8

28.4

29.7

66.4

65.3

63.8

65.5

70.3

68.1

65.9

69.6

70.2

71.2

71.8

70.3

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

% First Time Visitors % Repeat Visitors

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18,206

10,820

2,295

20,266 20,114

5,896

Hotel only Condo only Timeshare only

YTD 2007

YTD 2016

86%

157%

Growth in Condo and Timeshare Stays January each year

(Number of Canadian Visits and % change by accommodation type)

11%

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Most Visitors Travel Independently

• Similar to previous months,

eight-in-ten Canadian visitors (82%) travelled to Hawaii independently.

• Compared to January 2015, fewer Canadians (-16.1%) visited Hawaii as part of a package.

• During the month, the volume of non-package (independent) visits also declined compared to last

year (-10.8%) Photo credit: Hawaii Tourism Authority / Tor Johnson

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Package vs. Independent Visits January each year

Package and Independent Visits (January)

Package Independent

2009 10,335 33,546

2010 13,761 38,091

2011 14,807 43,966

2012 16,401 47,662

2013 14,842 52,480

2014 13,931 56,236

2015 13,623 58,719

2016 11,434 52,364

28% 24%

27% 25% 26% 22%

20% 19% 18%

72% 76%

73% 75% 74% 78%

80% 81% 82%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

% Package Visitors % Independent Visitors

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Meetings/Conventions/Incentives Other Business Visit Friends/Relatives

2009 2010 2011

2012 2013 2014

2015 2016

40,371 47,884

54,124 59,976

63,743 66,442 66,898 59,568

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Increase in MC&IT Visits

Canadians made almost

60 thousand pleasure

visits to Hawaii in

January 2016; a

decrease of -11.0%

In January, Canadian visits for

MC&IT purposes increased 23%,

while trips for other business

and VFR decreased 33.0% and

37.6%, respectively. Non-

pleasure trips accounted for

just 10% of total visits to

Hawaii during the month.

Pleasure Visits (January each year)

Non-Pleasure Visits (January each year)

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Winter Travel Outlook Nov 2014 - April 2015 Nov 2015 - April 2016 % change

SEAT CAPACITY 363,063 384,909 6.0%

via Canada 330,149 352,146 6.7%

via Bellingham 32,914 32,763 -0.5%

ARRIVALS 284,981 295,328 3.6%

via Canada 258,093 270,120 4.7%

via Bellingham 26,848 25,208 -6.1%

• Compared to last year, Canadian carriers plan to offer 22 thousand more seats to Hawaii during winter 2015-16, including 13 thousand additional seats out of Vancouver.

• In September, average airfare from Vancouver to Honolulu for the winter travel season was $595, or -29.9% less than the previous year. In February, airfares for the remaining winter months had increased to an average of $841 suggesting stable passenger demand.

• In the first half of the 2015-16 season, direct arrivals increased 3.6%. If carriers can achieve a minimum average load factor of 77%, direct arrivals are forecast to grow by more than 12 thousand during the winter travel season (4.7%).

• With capacity from ports such as Bellingham flat, and fewer Canadians driving to the U.S. to fly to their destination, indirect arrivals are expected to decline by up to one-third this winter.

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Seat Capacity Stable, but Load Factors Down

• Air Canada offered 51.1% more seats

from Toronto in January, which countered the carrier’s decline in service from Vancouver.

• During the month, WestJet also added more direct capacity from Toronto, as well as Calgary and

Edmonton.

• Together Air Canada and WestJet offered 2.3% more seats to Hawaii in

January 2016, but the overall load factor on the routes fell to 80.7%; down from 81.8% in 2015.

Number of Seats by City

January 2015 Air Canada WestJet Total

Calgary 3,587 6,132 9,719

Edmonton -- 2,847 2,847

Toronto 1,680 -- 1,680

Vancouver 17,855 30,756 48,611

Victoria -- 544 544

Total 23,122 40,279 63,401

January 2016 Air Canada WestJet Total

Calgary 3,798 6,736 10,534

Edmonton 3,612 3,612

Toronto 2,538 2,538

Vancouver 16,920 30,760 47,680

Victoria 520 520

Total 23,526 41,628 64,884

% change Air Canada WestJet Total

Calgary 5.9% 9.8% 8.4%

Edmonton 26.9% 26.9%

Toronto 51.1% 51.1%

Vancouver -5.2% -- -1.9%

Victoria -4.4% -4.4%

Total 0.6% 3.3% 2.3%

Source: OAG, US BTS

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195,831

234,904

266,824 296,544 298,914

321,032 298,914

321,032

353,412 353,113

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015 2016f

10.1% -0.1%

-6.9%

Direct Arrivals to Fall in 2016 • After increasing 7.4% in 2014, direct visitor arrivals grew by 10.1% in 2015.

• Air Canada and WestJet are reporting capacity of 467 thousand seats in 2016; almost 13 thousand seats more than in 2015, however load factors are expected to be lower than in the past.

• If carriers can maintain an average annual load factor of 76%, they will deliver the same volume of passengers as in 2015.

7.4%

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Direct Arrivals from Canada

Source: Hawaii Tourism Authority, OAG, US BTS, CBoC estimates.

2015 Seats 2016 Seats 2015 PAX 2016 PAX PAX % change (2016 vs 2015)

January 63,401 64,884 51,842 52,347 1.0%

February 56,832 62,987 45,471 48,500 6.7%

March 63,868 71,061 51,682 54,717 5.9%

April 56,093 57,008 35,559 37,055 4.2%

May 21,908 19,158 14,925 12,453 -16.6%

June 17,800 18,540 12,812 12,978 1.3%

July 19,164 19,158 16,315 15,326 -6.1%

August 19,732 19,158 16,150 14,943 -7.5%

September 18,096 17,364 13,134 12,155 -7.5%

October 21,238 19,705 18,021 16,158 -10.3%

November 37,363 37,340 30,217 29,125 -3.6%

December 58,843 60,712 47,284 47,355 0.2%

TOTAL 454,338 467,075 353,412 353,113 -0.1%

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Arrivals from Bellingham

Source: US BTS, OAG, CBoC estimates.

2015 Seats 2016 Seats 2015 PAX 2016 PAX % change (PAX) (2016 vs 2015)

January 5,216 5,379 4,026 4,034 0.2%

February 4,564 4,564 3,562 3,423 -3.9%

March 7,335 6,846 6,069 5,135 -15.4%

April 5,379 4,564 3,652 3,423 -6.3%

May 4,908 4,238 3,817 3,179 -16.7%

June 978 652 382 326 -14.7%

July -- -- -- -- --

August -- -- -- -- --

September -- -- -- -- --

October -- -- -- -- --

November 4,890 4,238 3,803 3,179 -16.4%

December 6,520 6,357 5,390 4,768 -11.5%

TOTAL 39,301 36,838 30,701 27,466 -10.5%

Total passenger arrivals from Bellingham, WA declined by 39% in 2015 as Alaska Airlines

delivered almost 20 thousand fewer seats during the year.

With only Alaska Airlines servicing the route and a Canadian dollar that doesn’t support cross-

border departures, overall arrivals via Bellingham are expected to fall by -10.5% in 2016.

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Airfare Outlook (Airfares from Vancouver to Honolulu: March 2016)

Source: Carrier websites as of March 11, 2016. Airfares represent the lowest-priced round-trip departing on the second Friday of each month for two weeks. *Average is of the airfare snapshot presented, not all fares available during the period.

Month Carrier Base Fare Taxes & Fees Total % change

(2016 vs. 2015)

May Air Canada $404 $131 $535 22.4%

WestJet $549 $145 $694 38.5%

June Air Canada $440 $131 $571 27.2%

WestJet $440 $145 $585 -11.6%

July Air Canada $588 $131 $719 35.4%

WestJet $568 $145 $713 7.7%

August Air Canada $608 $131 $739 23.0%

WestJet $568 $145 $713 -29.3%

September Air Canada $568 $131 $699 51.6%

WestJet $568 $145 $713 -5.9%

Air Canada Average* $522 $131 $653 31.6%

WestJet Average* $539 $145 $684 -4.8%

Overall Average* $530 $138 $668 10.1%

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Winter Travel Outlook Nov 2013 – April 2014

Nov 2014 – April 2015

% change

SEAT CAPACITY 343,607 364,152 6.0%

via Canada 289,111 330,429 14.3%

via Bellingham 54,496 33,723 -38.1%

ARRIVALS 282,533 295,077 4.4%

via Canada 237,350 266,552 12.3%

via Bellingham 45,183 28,252 -36.9%

• Compared to last winter, Canadian carriers plan to offer 41 thousand more seats to Hawaii during winter 2014/15. Air Canada’s addition of 36 thousands seats counter-balances the 38% decline in seats out of Bellingham.

• If carriers can maintain an 80% load factor, direct arrivals are forecast to grow by 12.3% during the winter season.

• Indirect arrivals are forecast to decline significantly due to a reduction in seat capacity from Bellingham and other US gateways.

• Total direct and indirect winter arrivals are forecast to grow 4.4% to reach 295 thousand.

Photo credit: Hawaii Tourism Authority / Tor Johnson

Aloha!