Can Renewable Can Renewable Electricity Electricity Generation Scale?Generation Scale?

Choices and Challenges for the Choices and Challenges for the Current CenturyCurrent Century

Three Main Challenges Electricity Production: per capita

consumption is increasing faster than energy efficiency

Developing Nations: 2 Billion humans are still without electricity

Electricity Distribution: Aging grid already at capacity; can’t easily accommodate new sources of generation

Production and Consumption on the Century Timescale

A Century of Change A Century of Change (1900 (=1) vs 2000)(1900 (=1) vs 2000)

• Industrial Output: 40

• Marine Fish Catch: 35

• CO2 Emissions: 17

• Total Energy Use: 16

• Coal Production: 7

• World Population: 4

No More Fish by

2100 at this rate

of Consumption

Electricity Demand ScalingElectricity Demand Scaling

• 1890 – 1955: D P1.6

• 1955 – 2005: D P3.5 (!)

• US Nameplate Electricity Gen: 1.4 TW

• World 4 +/- 0.5 TW (China Uncertainty)

• 2050 Estimate by Pop Scaling: 12-16 TW

• 2050 Estimate including improvements in electricity generating efficiency: 8- 12 TW

Why China is Such A ConcernWhy China is Such A Concern

Factor 16 Growth (4 doubling times) in 35 years!

International Energy Outlook International Energy Outlook 20102010

4 TW

But this is Net Generation: Divide by 0.4 (40%) to Get to Nameplate

World Energy Use 2050World Energy Use 2050

Energy = electricity + transport + heatEnergy = electricity + transport + heat Electricity Production: 30% of total EnergyElectricity Production: 30% of total Energy So we need approximately 35 TW of Power So we need approximately 35 TW of Power

in 2050in 2050 Assume that as the annual average over Assume that as the annual average over

2000-21002000-2100 We need energy source with 3500 TWyrsWe need energy source with 3500 TWyrs Make an Inventory of Energy sourcesMake an Inventory of Energy sources

Ultimately Recoverable Ultimately Recoverable ResourceResource

Conventional Conventional Oil/GasOil/Gas

Unconventional OilUnconventional Oil CoalCoal Methane ClathratesMethane Clathrates Oil ShaleOil Shale Uranium OreUranium Ore Geothermal Steam Geothermal Steam

- conventional- conventional

1000 TWy (1/4 1000 TWy (1/4 need)need)

20002000 50005000 20,000 20,000 30,00030,000 2,0002,000 4,0004,000

Non Fossil FuelsNon Fossil Fuels

Hot Dry RockHot Dry Rock Sunlight/OTECSunlight/OTEC Wind EnergyWind Energy Gulf StreamGulf Stream Global BiomassGlobal Biomass

1,000,000 TWyrs1,000,000 TWyrs 9,000,0009,000,000 100,000 - 200,000*100,000 - 200,000* 140,000140,000 10,00010,000

In Principle, Incident Energy is Sufficient but how to recover and distribute it in the most cost effective manner?

1.5 MW harvest devices

Radiative transfer theory

Not Considering Nuclear As Not Considering Nuclear As ScalableScalable

Current timescale from design Current timescale from design through approval, construction and through approval, construction and turn on for a typical 1200 MW reactor turn on for a typical 1200 MW reactor is 16 years !is 16 years !

Insufficient Uranium OreInsufficient Uranium Ore Thorium reactors are certainly better Thorium reactors are certainly better

but special handling conditions are but special handling conditions are required for Thorium and we have required for Thorium and we have zero infrastructure for thiszero infrastructure for this

Scaling now becomes critical

Which renewable energy technologies scale the best in terms of unit yield, production timescales and material costs?

This need to properly scale is now coming at a time when civilization has essentially exhausted about 70% of available earth resources

More Earth LimitationsMore Earth Limitations

Total fuel cell production limited by Total fuel cell production limited by amount of accessible platinum on the amount of accessible platinum on the planet; 500 million vehicles planet; 500 million vehicles lithospheric lithospheric exhaustion in 15 yearsexhaustion in 15 years

Higher efficiency PVs limited by accessible Higher efficiency PVs limited by accessible amounts of rare materials (e.g. Tellurium, amounts of rare materials (e.g. Tellurium, Sellenium, even Cooper)Sellenium, even Cooper)

Conventional Transmission media limited Conventional Transmission media limited by available new Copperby available new Copper

Clear need for Carbon based materials Clear need for Carbon based materials (fiber, nanotubes) to overcome this.(fiber, nanotubes) to overcome this.

This Decade (2010-2020) is This Decade (2010-2020) is Crucial: We must do much better Crucial: We must do much better

than the Last Decadethan the Last Decade

1998

1% PER DECADE SUCKS1% PER DECADE SUCKS

Evaluation Rubric For All forms of Evaluation Rubric For All forms of RenewablesRenewables

1. MW output per surface area (MW/KM1. MW output per surface area (MW/KM22)) 2. MW output per material use (MW/Ton)2. MW output per material use (MW/Ton) 3. MW output per job created (Jobs/MW)3. MW output per job created (Jobs/MW) 4. MW output versus production time scale 4. MW output versus production time scale

to bring on line (months/MW)to bring on line (months/MW) 5. Capital cost per MW ($/Watt)5. Capital cost per MW ($/Watt) 6. Realistic Levelized Cost (cents per 6. Realistic Levelized Cost (cents per

KWH)KWH)

Dollars Per Megawatt per unit Dollars Per Megawatt per unit Land use per unit Material UseLand use per unit Material Use

20 KW power buoy 20 KW power buoy 5 MW Wind Turbine5 MW Wind Turbine LNG closed cycleLNG closed cycle Wind Farm (3Dx6D)Wind Farm (3Dx6D) Solar TroughSolar Trough Pelamis FarmPelamis Farm

850 Tons per MW850 Tons per MW 100 Tons per MW100 Tons per MW 1500 MW sq km 1500 MW sq km 50-60 MW sq km 50-60 MW sq km 20-25 MW sq km20-25 MW sq km 30-35 MW sq km30-35 MW sq km

To Evaluate Competing Electricity Generating Technologies Develop an internally consistent indexing

system for the 6 attributes listed previously (the dow jones is an index)

Use real world data and real world physics to best determine the values

Weight the indexes appropriately (real world cares about $/Watt and Jobs Created)

Choose Baseline – we will use Solar in the following exercise

Indexing – Solar Troughs

1. Land ~20 MW/km (over 24 hour day) = 1 2. Materials ~3 tons per kw = 1 3. Jobs ~3 jobs per MW 4. Time ~10 MW per month 5. Capital ~3$ per watt real facility cost 6. Levelized 10 cents per KWH

IndexIndex SolarSolar WindWind WavesWaves BiomassBiomass

LandLand 11 2.52.5 11 .2.2

MaterialMaterial 11 33 .2.2 11

JobsJobs 11 11 11 55

TimeTime 11 33 .5.5 .5.5

CapitalCapital 11 2.52.5 .5.5 .5.5

LevelLevel 11 33 .75.75 11

Cumulative Index = 1+2+(1.5)3+4+1.25(5)+1.25(6)

Highest Index is Best

Relative RankingRelative Ranking

Solar = 7Solar = 7Waves =4.75Waves =4.75Biomass =11 (because of jobs created)Biomass =11 (because of jobs created)Wind = 17 (lower material intensity and Wind = 17 (lower material intensity and

low Levelized costs)low Levelized costs) In general, wind is more scalable than In general, wind is more scalable than

Solar and wind always beats Solar PVSolar and wind always beats Solar PV

Scalability of WindScalability of Wind

Thinking Real Big – Gulf CurrentThinking Real Big – Gulf Current

Gulf Current Total Yield Ocean currents have approximately 830 times the

energy density of moving air (i.e. wind). For a 2 m/sec current, the power density is 4 KW per square meter.

Assume underwater array of 3 blade turbines with blade length of 2 meters. That means 50KW unit capacity.

Build a 1 km leg with turbines spaced by 4 meters. Each leg then has 250 units x 50 kw = 12.5 MW per km.

Build parallel legs over a 10 km wide section which each leg separated by 100 meters 1.25 GW in this 1x10 x-section

Now repeat this over 100 km of Gulf stream and you have 125 GW. Repeat this over 1000 km and you have 1.26 TW (or equivalent of US Total nameplate capacity) Gee, Isn't this a solution?

Scalability in the Real World

Energy Payback Times (EPT) Material supply chain limitations Good current example – Lithium for Li-

Ion batteries. 1 Kg per laptop (200 million per year)

250 KG per EV

Supply Chain LimitationsSupply Chain Limitations

All Supply Chains can reach All Supply Chains can reach physical saturation limitsphysical saturation limits

Historical Growth PatternsHistorical Growth Patterns

Sustaining high growth is hardSustaining high growth is hard

Where is the wind going? US has Where is the wind going? US has biggest 1 year gainbiggest 1 year gain

Current World Build OutCurrent World Build Out

Annual Growth Rate is 22%

Looks Good but .6 TW by 2020 will only be Looks Good but .6 TW by 2020 will only be about 10% of total nameplate productionabout 10% of total nameplate production

Wind RealityWind Reality 144,000 MW installed capacity is about 144,000 MW installed capacity is about

44,000 MW real produced (capacity factor 44,000 MW real produced (capacity factor of 0.31) of 0.31) about 1% of global now about 1% of global now

A 10% goal can reached in 2018 but would A 10% goal can reached in 2018 but would require production to be 5 times higher require production to be 5 times higher than nowthan now

Its unclear at the moment, which aspect of Its unclear at the moment, which aspect of wind turbine construction can’t scale to wind turbine construction can’t scale to meet this goalmeet this goal

Transmission line limitations, may be the Transmission line limitations, may be the limiting factor unless we start using limiting factor unless we start using HYDROGEN as the energy carrierHYDROGEN as the energy carrier

Real World Wind Real World Wind Example:Example:

3600 turbine blades per year 3600 turbine blades per year Requires 2500 workersRequires 2500 workers Requires 2 x 400,000 sf facilities.Requires 2 x 400,000 sf facilities. 1200 2.5 MW wind Turbines per year1200 2.5 MW wind Turbines per year 3000 MW per year 3000 MW per year 115 yrs to replace 115 yrs to replace

340,000 MW of Coal (NP)340,000 MW of Coal (NP) Need to ramp this up by a factor of 6 to Need to ramp this up by a factor of 6 to

replace all Coal (NP) by 2030replace all Coal (NP) by 2030

Solar: Harvesting a Vastly Solar: Harvesting a Vastly distributed Resourcedistributed Resource

A Large Scalability Challenge

Wind vs SolarWind vs Solar

Wind has a materials only supply chainWind has a materials only supply chain Solar PV has a chemical processing Solar PV has a chemical processing

componentcomponent

Solar Trough Supply ChainSolar Trough Supply Chain

Is mostly in materials, similar to wind Is mostly in materials, similar to wind supply chain process:supply chain process:

Solar GrowthSolar Growth

29% annual growth rate

Reality: SolarReality: Solar

18000 annual MW of Peak is closer to 18000 annual MW of Peak is closer to 3000 MW of average annual3000 MW of average annual

Current Global is ~4.8 TW or 1600 Current Global is ~4.8 TW or 1600 times largertimes larger

Supposed Global electricity growth is Supposed Global electricity growth is 2.5%2.5%

By 2027 10% electricity would come By 2027 10% electricity would come from PVs which would now be produced from PVs which would now be produced at the rate 60 times greater than now at the rate 60 times greater than now in just 17 years! in just 17 years! not possible not possible

Real WorldReal World Hard to predict how scalable an industry really isHard to predict how scalable an industry really is Averaged over next 25 years solar is likely to be Averaged over next 25 years solar is likely to be

around 15% due to various material limitationsaround 15% due to various material limitations Wind is likely to be only 10% due to material Wind is likely to be only 10% due to material

limitations and production physical space and limitations and production physical space and transportation/distribution constraintstransportation/distribution constraints

With these rates by 2035 and a 9 TWe planetWith these rates by 2035 and a 9 TWe planet Solar = 8%Solar = 8% Wind = 50%Wind = 50% So 2050 Renewable Energy Planet is possible if So 2050 Renewable Energy Planet is possible if

one includes the gulf current projet.one includes the gulf current projet.

Energy Pay Back Times

Energy Payback Time the timescale over which the total supply chain energy of manufacturing is paid back by harvested energy from the device.

EPBT for Solar PV at best is 2.5 years: This depends primarily on PV efficiency and PV insolation

EPBT for Wind Turbine is now at about 3-4 months: This depends mostly on turbine capacity. The energy required to make a 3 MW turbine is a lot less than 2 times the energy it takes to make a 1.5 MW wind turbine.

The bottom line here is that, in every way measureable, Wind is more scalable than Solar PV.

But, the energy payback times of concentrating solar power systems (e.g. solar troughs) is comparable to wind energy (5-8 months) because that technology has a similar material supply chain it just doesn't have the land use scalability of wind.

The Need for the Hydrogen Nano Battery

Molecular Storage Containers

Current best molecule is Ca32C60Molecular weight is high so addition of H

does not increase weight significantly

Major Physics Problem:

You can put the Hydrogen in But you can’t get it out Fast enough to Power a Fuel Cell

Time to Think of Big Projects

Thinking Big -Solar

Sonoran Desert Project:

300,000 square km @ 2% coverage yields 100,000 MW

10% coverage yields 500,000 MW

Thinking Big - Wind

Lake Michigan Wind project down North South Axis: Populate 400 x 30 km box with 30 legs each containing 1200 5 MW turbines: 180,000 MW

Thinking Real Big - Wind

Great Prairie Wind Farm with 100 MW vertical Wind Turbines: Construct 10,000 of these (Space Needle Size) @1 per 125 square km. This produces 1TW of electricity and effectively replaces all other forms of electricity generation in the US.

Thinking Real Big – Aleutian Wind Wall

TW wind power scale incident on the Archipelago (nearly constantly) (wind power density averages 600-700 watts per sq. meter – twice as high as typical wind farm.

Use this wind energy to produce Hydrogen (can annually fuel at least 100 million vehicles should they exist)

The Necessary Smart GridThe Necessary Smart Grid

Route electricity like IPRoute electricity like IP Each node on network can buy, sell, Each node on network can buy, sell,

or store electricityor store electricity 100 million network nodes – each 100 million network nodes – each

home is a power planthome is a power plant SMS messaging on system state; poll SMS messaging on system state; poll

once every 2 minutes once every 2 minutes 4 Terrabits 4 Terrabits per secondper second

SummarySummary

• Yes this is a big infrastructure challenge. Need to install 50,000 MW per year for 20-30 years. This is not physically impossible. Big infrastructure can be built if you put enough resources into it:

The Interstate Highway SystemThe Depression Era Federal Hydroelectric Projects (45% green)Going to the Moon in 10 years

• Think seriously about using Hydrogen as a proxy for transmission of electricity within the new smart grid

• No one technological solution (e.g. fusion) yet exists need Network of regionally based alternative energy facilities

2010 Realities2010 Realities

• The Obama Unit: (780 Billion dollars) insufficient renewable energy infrastructure investment

• New (post 2006) domestic Natural gas discoveries are moving the market back towards fossils and away from renewables

• BAU depletes most planetary resources at the 90% level by 2030 Chinese Sledgehammer

• We are in a collective stupor on all of these issues; if we don’t prioritize the long term, then we will become stone aged in the short term.