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By: Ramy Essam [email protected] Ramy Essam-APV June 18, 2014 1 Under Supervision of: Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

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Page 1: By: Ramy Essam - Uni Kassel€¦ · By: Ramy Essam ramy_essam@hotmail.com June 18, 2014 Ramy Essam-APV 1 Under Supervision of: Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

By: Ramy Essam [email protected]

Ramy Essam-APV June 18, 2014 1

Under Supervision of:

Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie

Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

Page 2: By: Ramy Essam - Uni Kassel€¦ · By: Ramy Essam ramy_essam@hotmail.com June 18, 2014 Ramy Essam-APV 1 Under Supervision of: Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

1. Introduction & Objective

2. Methodology & Procedure

3. Modeling

4. Simulation & Results

5. Conclusion

6. Future Recommendations

7. Summary

8. Questions & Answers

Ramy Essam-APV June 18, 2014 2

Outline

Page 3: By: Ramy Essam - Uni Kassel€¦ · By: Ramy Essam ramy_essam@hotmail.com June 18, 2014 Ramy Essam-APV 1 Under Supervision of: Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

Source: www.ise.fraunhofer.de

Definition:

Agro-photovoltaic (APV) is the concept of combining power generated from PV and to enhance Agriculture productivity simultaneously

Aim of work:

The PV integration on farm land concept is used to increase land productivity and economic profitability with minimal negative interactions and positive optimal interactions

Objective of the study:

Evaluation of technical and economical feasibility under Egyptian climate conditions

1. Introduction & Objective

Ramy Essam-APV June 18, 2014 3

Page 4: By: Ramy Essam - Uni Kassel€¦ · By: Ramy Essam ramy_essam@hotmail.com June 18, 2014 Ramy Essam-APV 1 Under Supervision of: Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

Identify the Problem & Search for

Solutions

1. Define Technical Model Variables

2. Classification of Plants

Run the Simulation

Interpretation of results & Conclusion

2. Methodology & Procedure

Ramy Essam-APV June 18, 2014 4

• History of APV applications

• Literature review

• Lessons learned: Fraunhofer ISE/In-house research

• Literature experimental shading studies

• Radiance Software

Page 5: By: Ramy Essam - Uni Kassel€¦ · By: Ramy Essam ramy_essam@hotmail.com June 18, 2014 Ramy Essam-APV 1 Under Supervision of: Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

Sources: 1- Fraunhofer ISE; 2- M. Guggenmos; 3- www.revolutionenergymaker.com; 4- University of Montpellier

Prof. A. Goetzberger (early 80s) published preliminary results of research. Putting it into practice:

Bavaria (since 2010):

Manfred Guggenmos: practical experiments for vegetables under PV.

Northern Italy (2011): three APV-prototypes have been installed, but no scientific support to date.

South of France (2009): University of Montpellier installed APV testing facility.

2.1. History of APV

Ramy Essam-APV June 18, 2014 5

2. Methodology & Procedure

Page 6: By: Ramy Essam - Uni Kassel€¦ · By: Ramy Essam ramy_essam@hotmail.com June 18, 2014 Ramy Essam-APV 1 Under Supervision of: Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

Source: www.ise.fraunhofer.de

Plant growth conditions are a subject to change with APV implementation

Evaluation according to ecological indicator values of plants.

Ecological indicators

Interpretation against field of reference

3. Modeling

Ramy Essam-APV June 18, 2014 6

3.1. Modeling- Agriculture Aspects

Page 7: By: Ramy Essam - Uni Kassel€¦ · By: Ramy Essam ramy_essam@hotmail.com June 18, 2014 Ramy Essam-APV 1 Under Supervision of: Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

Figure (1): Biomass Yield as a Function of Relative Light Availability (PAR)

Plants react differently on shading

Response to shading of crops in arid regions

3. Modeling

Ramy Essam-APV June 18, 2014 7

3.1. Modeling- Agriculture Aspects

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

Bio

mas

s yi

eld

[%

]

Photosynthetic Active Radiation (PAR) [%]

PLUS

ZERO

MINUS

Page 8: By: Ramy Essam - Uni Kassel€¦ · By: Ramy Essam ramy_essam@hotmail.com June 18, 2014 Ramy Essam-APV 1 Under Supervision of: Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

Figure (2): Classification of Egypt’s most relevant economic plants in agriculture

PLUS category: Shading tolerant, crops are benefited from shade

ZERO category: No significant effect on yield

MINUS category: Shading sensitive, crops are badly influenced by shade

3. Modeling

Ramy Essam-APV June 18, 2014 8

3.1. Modeling- Agriculture Aspects

Page 9: By: Ramy Essam - Uni Kassel€¦ · By: Ramy Essam ramy_essam@hotmail.com June 18, 2014 Ramy Essam-APV 1 Under Supervision of: Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

Figure (3): APV System Technology

1 = PV module

2 = foundation of intermediate supports

3 = foundation at the edge of the field

α = surface azimuth angle

b = module width

d = row spacing

d’ = distance between supports

L= modules length

h = clear height underneath the panels

Ramy Essam-APV June 18, 2014 9

3. Modeling 3.1. Modeling- Technical Aspects

Page 10: By: Ramy Essam - Uni Kassel€¦ · By: Ramy Essam ramy_essam@hotmail.com June 18, 2014 Ramy Essam-APV 1 Under Supervision of: Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

Figure (5): Simulation of Irradiance on Ground

Inclination Angle (15°, 25°)

Height of Installation (2m, 4m & 6m)

Orientation Angle (0°, 45°)

Row Spacing Distance (1.5-6.5m)

4. Simulation & Results

Ramy Essam-APV June 18, 2014 10

Figure (4): Side View of an APV Module System Structure

4.1. Technical Variables

Page 11: By: Ramy Essam - Uni Kassel€¦ · By: Ramy Essam ramy_essam@hotmail.com June 18, 2014 Ramy Essam-APV 1 Under Supervision of: Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

Figure (6): Global Horizontal Irradiation underneath Different Installation Heights.

Increasing height shows higher uniformity of solar irradiation distribution on ground.

Installation height of 4 m is to be considered for the upcoming calculations.

Ramy Essam-APV June 18, 2014 11

4. Simulation & Results 4.2. Technical Results

4.2.1. Global Horizontal Irradiation vs Height

Page 12: By: Ramy Essam - Uni Kassel€¦ · By: Ramy Essam ramy_essam@hotmail.com June 18, 2014 Ramy Essam-APV 1 Under Supervision of: Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

Figure (7): Global Horizontal Irradiation underneath Different Orientation of Arrays.

Optimal module orientation towards South results in heterogeneous distribution of radiation on ground level.

Orientation towards 45° South-west provides homogeneously distributed Irradiation.

Conclusion: Homogeneity of radiation is very important for crop cultivation ( simultaneous ripening, etc.) therefore, modules should have to be installed:

High

Not towards South

Ramy Essam-APV June 18, 2014 12

4. Simulation & Results 4.2. Technical Results

4.2.2. Global Horizontal Irradiation vs Orientation angle

Page 13: By: Ramy Essam - Uni Kassel€¦ · By: Ramy Essam ramy_essam@hotmail.com June 18, 2014 Ramy Essam-APV 1 Under Supervision of: Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

Figure (8): Photovoltaic Electric Yield

𝑷𝑽𝑬𝒓𝒆𝒍 𝐝; 𝜶 =𝐆𝐭

𝐝;𝜶 ∗𝐃 (𝐝𝐞𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞)

𝐆𝐭 𝟏.𝟓;𝟎 ∗𝐃 (𝐎𝐏𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐀𝐋 𝐝𝐞𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞)

∗ 𝟏𝟎𝟎

Orientation of array in an APV system towards 45° south-west. Electricity yield decreases by less than 5 % due to this suboptimal orientation.

Ramy Essam-APV June 18, 2014 13

4. Simulation & Results 4.2. Technical Results

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

PV

E [

%]

Row Spacing Distance [m]

Summer-South Winter-South

Summer-Southwest Winter-Southwest

4.2.3. Photovoltaic Electric Yield

Page 14: By: Ramy Essam - Uni Kassel€¦ · By: Ramy Essam ramy_essam@hotmail.com June 18, 2014 Ramy Essam-APV 1 Under Supervision of: Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

Figure (9): Photosynthetically Active Radiation on Ground between modules

𝑷𝑨𝑹𝒓𝒆𝒍 𝒅 =𝐆𝐡𝐨𝐫

𝐝;𝛂;𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝒎𝒐𝒅𝒖𝒍𝒆

𝐆𝐡𝐨𝐫 𝐮𝐧𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝒂𝒓𝒆𝒂

∗ 𝟏𝟎𝟎

Photosynthetic active radiation in winter South-west oriented is higher than in South oriented.

Ramy Essam-APV June 18, 2014 14

4. Simulation & Results 4.2. Technical Results

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

PA

R [

%]

Row Spacing Distance [m]

Summer-South Winter-South

Summer-Southwest Winter-Southwest

4.2.4. Photosynthetic Active Radiation

Page 15: By: Ramy Essam - Uni Kassel€¦ · By: Ramy Essam ramy_essam@hotmail.com June 18, 2014 Ramy Essam-APV 1 Under Supervision of: Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

Figure (10): Biomass Yield of APV south and 45°-Southwest oriented modules

45° South-west facing system and 25° inclination angle is a good regime to measure the effect of changing row spacing distance on the three categorized crops.

Slight differences, but only for winter crops.

Ramy Essam-APV June 18, 2014 15

4. Simulation & Results 4.2. Technical Results

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

BM

E [

%]

Row Spacing Distance [m]

PLUS-Summer

PLUS-Winter

ZERO-Summer

ZERO-Winter

MINUS-Summer

MINUS-Winter0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1 2 3 4 5 6 7B

ME

[%

]

Row Spacing Distance [m]

PLUS-Summer

PLUS-Winter

ZERO-Summer

ZERO-Winter

MINUS-Summer

MINUS-Winter

Standard Orientation: South Standard Orientation: 45° South-west

4.2.5. Biomass Yield

Page 16: By: Ramy Essam - Uni Kassel€¦ · By: Ramy Essam ramy_essam@hotmail.com June 18, 2014 Ramy Essam-APV 1 Under Supervision of: Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

Figure (11): Land Equivalent Ratio

𝐋𝐄𝐑 =𝑩𝑴𝑬𝐀𝐏𝐕

𝑩𝑴𝑬𝒎𝒐𝒏𝒐+

𝑷𝑽𝑬𝐀𝐏𝐕

𝑷𝑽𝑬𝒎𝒐𝒏𝒐

It is a quantitative approach for determining productivity of APV, it measures the total output per unit area.

LER for summer crops of PLUS category increased by 80 % productivity at optimum row spacing of 2.9 m.

LER for the other two categories are in the range of 30 to 60 % higher in productivity compared to mono-cultivation.

Ramy Essam-APV June 18, 2014 16

4. Simulation & Results 4.2. Technical Results

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

LE

R

Row Spacing Distance [m]

PLUS-Summer PLUS-Winter

ZERO-Summer ZERO-Winter

4.2.6. Land Equivalent Ratio

Page 17: By: Ramy Essam - Uni Kassel€¦ · By: Ramy Essam ramy_essam@hotmail.com June 18, 2014 Ramy Essam-APV 1 Under Supervision of: Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

Ramy Essam-APV June 18, 2014 17

4. Simulation & Results 4.3. Technical & Economical Input Parameters

Technology Parameters Unit PVoff APVoff APVon

Operating Lifetime [a] 25 25 25

Surface Area [ha] 0.5 0.5 0.5

Investment Cost * [€/kWp] 1,210 1,700 1,700

Module Width [m] 1 1 1

Row Spacing Modules [m] 1.5 2.5 2.5

Rated Capacity of Module [W/m2] 2054 2054 2054

Installed Capacity ** [kWp] 676.5 410 410

Power Generation Yield *** [kWh/m2.a] 1,7901 1,7001 1,7001

PV System Power Generation [kWh/a] 1,210,935 697,205 697,205

Financial Parameters

Debt Percentage [%] 90 90 90

Equity Percentage [%] 10 10 10

Loan Repayment Time 5 [a] 10 10 10

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) [%] 7.23 7.79 7.51

Cost of Equity [%] 31.75 37.38 34.56

Beta Factor [-] 2 2.5 2.25

Annual Current Output Reduction [%] 0.21 0.21 0.21

Price of Electricity [€/kWh] 0.146 0.146 0.0697

Annual Operating Expenses

(as a percentage of investment)

[%] 21 21 21

Leased Land [€/a] 0 0 0

Agricultural Income [€/a] 0 6888 6888

Table (1): Input Technical and Financial Parameters for Economic Feasibility

Page 18: By: Ramy Essam - Uni Kassel€¦ · By: Ramy Essam ramy_essam@hotmail.com June 18, 2014 Ramy Essam-APV 1 Under Supervision of: Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

Ramy Essam-APV June 18, 2014 18

4. Simulation & Results 4.4. Economical Results

Results Unit PVoff APVoff APVon

Lifetime [a] 25 25 25

Total Investment Cost 10 [€] 818,565 697,000 697,000

Total Power Generation 11 [kWh] 29,557,833 17,018,146 17,018,146

Revenue on Sale of

Electricity

[€] 4,138,096 2,382,540 1,174,252

Maintenance Cost 12 [€] 409,282 348,500 348,500

Net Income Electricity [€] 2,910,249 1,337,040 128,752

Net Income Agriculture [€] 0 32,836 32,836

Total Net Revenue [€] 2,910,249 1,369,876 161,588

Present Value (PV) [€] 1,716,588 904,040 383,961

Weighted Average Cost of

Capital (WACC)

[%] 7.23 7.79 7.51

Net Present Value (NPV) [€] 898,023 207,040 -313,038

Internal Rate of Return

(IRR)

[%] 18.22 10.92 1.37

Electricity Generation Costs

(LCOE)

[€/kWh] 0.07 0.114 0.111

Table (2): Results of the Investment Analysis of an APV System in comparison with a Conventional PV System

Page 19: By: Ramy Essam - Uni Kassel€¦ · By: Ramy Essam ramy_essam@hotmail.com June 18, 2014 Ramy Essam-APV 1 Under Supervision of: Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

Ramy Essam-APV June 18, 2014 19

4. Simulation & Results 4.5. Sensitivity Analysis-Investment Cost

Figure (12): The influence of Investment cost on the NPV and IRR for APV off-grid scenario.

0

2

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10

12

14

16

18

20

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800

IRR

[%

]

NP

V [

*10

00

€/h

a]

Investment cost [€/kWp]

NPV

IRR

Page 20: By: Ramy Essam - Uni Kassel€¦ · By: Ramy Essam ramy_essam@hotmail.com June 18, 2014 Ramy Essam-APV 1 Under Supervision of: Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

Ramy Essam-APV June 18, 2014 20

4. Simulation & Results 4.6. Sensitivity Analysis-Electricity Cost

Figure (13): The influence of Electricity cost on the NPV and IRR for APV on-grid scenario.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

0 0,02 0,04 0,06 0,08 0,1 0,12 0,14 0,16

IRR

[%

]

NP

V [

*10

00

€/h

a]

Electricity cost [€/kWh]

NPV

IRR

Page 21: By: Ramy Essam - Uni Kassel€¦ · By: Ramy Essam ramy_essam@hotmail.com June 18, 2014 Ramy Essam-APV 1 Under Supervision of: Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

APV off-grid Technology is Technically and Economically fesible.

APV off-grid scenario can compete with PV scenario by decreasing the investment cost and for APV on-grid by increasing the price of electricity (Feed-in Tariff).

In the off-grid scenario, reducing the investment cost due to relying on local material of construction. Result in APV-off grid technology could still compete with a PV system.

Coexisting of PV and plant cultivation is “theoretically” feasible in Egypt and “practically” proven elsewhere (e.g. France and Italy)

(In Egypt: only if economic framework will be established)

5. Conclusion

Ramy Essam-APV June 18, 2014 21

Page 22: By: Ramy Essam - Uni Kassel€¦ · By: Ramy Essam ramy_essam@hotmail.com June 18, 2014 Ramy Essam-APV 1 Under Supervision of: Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

P = Surface area ∗ PAPV,ha

APV-Potential in Egypt equals 123-246 GWp.

APV-Potential in Minya equals 14-29 MWp.

Ramy Essam-APV June 18, 2014 22

6. Future Recommendations 6.1. APV Potential-Case Study in Minya

Potential Restriction 𝐏𝐀𝐏𝐕,𝐡𝐚 Surface Area P

[kWp/ha] [ha] [MWp]

Theoretical Agriculture Land 820 420 344

Technical Plants of Categories

PLUS and ZERO

820 350 287

Technical Assumption:

Sustainability of 5-10 %

of the area

820 17.5-35 14-29

Table (3): Assessment of Theoretical and Technical Potential of APV in Minya

Sekem and Fraunhofer ISE intend to kick-off a pilot project in Egypt

Page 23: By: Ramy Essam - Uni Kassel€¦ · By: Ramy Essam ramy_essam@hotmail.com June 18, 2014 Ramy Essam-APV 1 Under Supervision of: Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

Recommended to Calculate:

Amount of irrigation water savings .

GHG emissions due to the replacement of APV-electricity to diesel generators in off-grid regions.

Ramy Essam-APV June 18, 2014 23

6. Future Recommendations 6.2. Recommendation for Action

Source: Green Valley Farm, SEKEM.

Page 24: By: Ramy Essam - Uni Kassel€¦ · By: Ramy Essam ramy_essam@hotmail.com June 18, 2014 Ramy Essam-APV 1 Under Supervision of: Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

Some results of the present study based only on theoretical assumptions, their validation is still pending. The three dominant uncertainties that should be examined are:

Data basis for assessing the shade tolerance of crops

Yield models of the three plant categories

Boundary conditions of the economic analysis

Ramy Essam-APV June 18, 2014 24

6. Future Recommendations 6.3. Uncertainties and Future Work

Source: Green Valley Farm, SEKEM

Page 25: By: Ramy Essam - Uni Kassel€¦ · By: Ramy Essam ramy_essam@hotmail.com June 18, 2014 Ramy Essam-APV 1 Under Supervision of: Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

Finally, the use of APV still appears to be a significant and purposeful approach to enhance the productivity of the same land area between agriculture and energy sector.

7. Summary

Ramy Essam-APV June 18, 2014 25

Source: www.google.de/images

Page 26: By: Ramy Essam - Uni Kassel€¦ · By: Ramy Essam ramy_essam@hotmail.com June 18, 2014 Ramy Essam-APV 1 Under Supervision of: Prof. Dr. Mohammed Fawzy Elrefaie Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

Thank you very

much for your attention…

8. Questions & Answers

Ramy Essam-APV June 18, 2014 26