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Bulgarian Market Bulgarian Market Access & Foreign Access & Foreign Trade Trade

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Page 1: Bulgarian Market Access & Foreign Trade. Preferential Market Access (1)  WTO membership since 1996  European Union Association Agreement  EFTA Agreement

Bulgarian Market Access Bulgarian Market Access & Foreign Trade& Foreign Trade

Bulgarian Market Access Bulgarian Market Access & Foreign Trade& Foreign Trade

Page 2: Bulgarian Market Access & Foreign Trade. Preferential Market Access (1)  WTO membership since 1996  European Union Association Agreement  EFTA Agreement

Preferential Market Access (1)Preferential Market Access (1)Preferential Market Access (1)Preferential Market Access (1) WTO membership since 1996WTO membership since 1996 European Union Association AgreementEuropean Union Association Agreement EFTA AgreementEFTA Agreement CEFTA membershipCEFTA membership Free Trade Area with TurkeyFree Trade Area with Turkey Effective Free Trade Agreements with Macedonia, Effective Free Trade Agreements with Macedonia,

Lithuania, Israel and EstoniaLithuania, Israel and Estonia Pending ratification of a Free Trade Agreement with Pending ratification of a Free Trade Agreement with

Latvia and FR YugoslaviaLatvia and FR Yugoslavia

Page 3: Bulgarian Market Access & Foreign Trade. Preferential Market Access (1)  WTO membership since 1996  European Union Association Agreement  EFTA Agreement

Free Trade Agreement With:

European UnionEFTACEFTAMacedoniaTurkeyEstoniaLithuaniaIsrael

Preferential Market Access (2)Preferential Market Access (2)Preferential Market Access (2)Preferential Market Access (2)

Page 4: Bulgarian Market Access & Foreign Trade. Preferential Market Access (1)  WTO membership since 1996  European Union Association Agreement  EFTA Agreement

Source: National Statistics Institute

55.754.851.352.150.444.240.139.3

7.2

4.64.6

7.27.9

7.78.3

10.8

4.29.0

17.9

6.1 5.812.4

17.619.3

5.33.9 3.5 3.2 4.9 4.4 4.0 4.8

14.714.315.212.412.113.611.511.9

12.918.8 17.9 16.7 15.5 14.1 12.5 11.7

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Other

Other from OECD

CEFTA

CIS

Balkan

EU

Exports (by Region, %, 1995- 11/2002)Exports (by Region, %, 1995- 11/2002)Exports (by Region, %, 1995- 11/2002)Exports (by Region, %, 1995- 11/2002)

Page 5: Bulgarian Market Access & Foreign Trade. Preferential Market Access (1)  WTO membership since 1996  European Union Association Agreement  EFTA Agreement

51.149.448.445.237.135.837.3

44.0

0.8

1.3

0.8

1.5

0.8 0.61.5

1.3

18.623.524.933.736.0

23.727.8

35.5

7.37.68.76.45.54.94.54.1

8.38.1 8.05.8 5.1 7.27.5 7.9

13.99.511.113.014.715.717.115.9

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Other

Other from OECD

CEFTA

CIS

Balkan

EU

Source: National Statistics Institute

Imports (by Region, %, 1995- 11/2002)Imports (by Region, %, 1995- 11/2002)Imports (by Region, %, 1995- 11/2002)Imports (by Region, %, 1995- 11/2002)

Page 6: Bulgarian Market Access & Foreign Trade. Preferential Market Access (1)  WTO membership since 1996  European Union Association Agreement  EFTA Agreement

Source: National Statistics Institute

2.93.1

4.54.85.4

9.39.59.6

15.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Italy Germany Turkey Greece France Belgium USA Spain UK

1999 2000 2001 2002

Exports (by Country, %, 1999-11/2002)Exports (by Country, %, 1999-11/2002)Exports (by Country, %, 1999-11/2002)Exports (by Country, %, 1999-11/2002)

Page 7: Bulgarian Market Access & Foreign Trade. Preferential Market Access (1)  WTO membership since 1996  European Union Association Agreement  EFTA Agreement

Bulgarian Export Growth (%)Bulgarian Export Growth (%)Bulgarian Export Growth (%)Bulgarian Export Growth (%)

Source: Bulgarian National Bank

5.2

5.7

-4.5

20.4

-5.6

2.6

-12.8

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Q1-Q3 2002

Page 8: Bulgarian Market Access & Foreign Trade. Preferential Market Access (1)  WTO membership since 1996  European Union Association Agreement  EFTA Agreement

Bulgarian ExportsBulgarian Exports(by Commodity Groups, 2001)(by Commodity Groups, 2001)

Bulgarian ExportsBulgarian Exports(by Commodity Groups, 2001)(by Commodity Groups, 2001)

Textile & leather materials, clothing,

footwear28%

Animal & vegetable products, food, drinks and tobacco products

9%

Wood, paper, earthenware and

glass products5%

Macnines, transport facilities, appliances

and tools12%

Chemical products plastics and rubber

12%

Mineral products and fuels16%

Base metals and their products

18%

Source: National Statistics Institute

Page 9: Bulgarian Market Access & Foreign Trade. Preferential Market Access (1)  WTO membership since 1996  European Union Association Agreement  EFTA Agreement

Bulgarian ImportsBulgarian Imports(by Commodity Groups, 2001)(by Commodity Groups, 2001)

Bulgarian ImportsBulgarian Imports(by Commodity Groups, 2001)(by Commodity Groups, 2001)

Chemical products plastics and rubber

12%

Macnines, transport facilities, appliances

and tools29%

Animal & vegetable products, food, drinks and tobacco products

6%

Base metals and their products

6%Wood, paper,

earthenware and glass products

4%

Textile & leather materials, clothing,

footwear16%

Mineral products and fuels27%

Source: National Statistics Institute

Page 10: Bulgarian Market Access & Foreign Trade. Preferential Market Access (1)  WTO membership since 1996  European Union Association Agreement  EFTA Agreement

Source: Governmental Sources and Bulgarian National Bank

-3.5-6.2-5.6-5.0

-0.5

10.1

1.7

-8.5

-11.7-9.3-8.3

-3.0

3.11.2

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002ECurrent Account Trade Account

Bulgaria

CEE Countries (2001)

-1.0-1.8

-3.9-4.8-4.8

-5.9-6.2-8.0

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

Slovakia Bulgaria Romania PolandCzech

Republic Croatia Slovenia Hungary

Current and Trade Account Deficit/Surplus (% GDP)Current and Trade Account Deficit/Surplus (% GDP)Current and Trade Account Deficit/Surplus (% GDP)Current and Trade Account Deficit/Surplus (% GDP)

Page 11: Bulgarian Market Access & Foreign Trade. Preferential Market Access (1)  WTO membership since 1996  European Union Association Agreement  EFTA Agreement

Current Account Deficit Largely Covered Current Account Deficit Largely Covered by FDI (USD m, 1998-2002)by FDI (USD m, 1998-2002)

Current Account Deficit Largely Covered Current Account Deficit Largely Covered by FDI (USD m, 1998-2002)by FDI (USD m, 1998-2002)

Source: Bulgarian National Bank

61

652702

842

131

537

1001

694

314

819

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1998 1999 2000 2001 Q1-Q3 2002

Current account deficit FDI

Page 12: Bulgarian Market Access & Foreign Trade. Preferential Market Access (1)  WTO membership since 1996  European Union Association Agreement  EFTA Agreement

Foreign Trade Projections Foreign Trade Projections Up to 2005Up to 2005

Foreign Trade Projections Foreign Trade Projections Up to 2005Up to 2005

Improving trade balance Improving trade balance – trade deficit to drop from USD1.3m in 2001 to USD0.9 trade deficit to drop from USD1.3m in 2001 to USD0.9

mm Exports will continue to grow, reaching a 46% increase Exports will continue to grow, reaching a 46% increase

compared to 2001compared to 2001 Imports will continue to grow, reaching a 26% increase Imports will continue to grow, reaching a 26% increase

compared to 2001compared to 2001 Exports/imports ratio will increase to 0.82 (from a current Exports/imports ratio will increase to 0.82 (from a current

value of 0.74)value of 0.74) No major changes in commodity groups’ relative shares of No major changes in commodity groups’ relative shares of

exports and importsexports and imports

Page 13: Bulgarian Market Access & Foreign Trade. Preferential Market Access (1)  WTO membership since 1996  European Union Association Agreement  EFTA Agreement

Trade Forecast - European UnionTrade Forecast - European Union(USD mln)(USD mln)

Trade Forecast - European UnionTrade Forecast - European Union(USD mln)(USD mln)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

exports imports

Source: Ministry of Economy