Building Resilience to Disasters in Building Resilience to Disasters in Western Balkans and Turkey Western Balkans and Turkey

Task 6: Kick-off meetingTask 6: Kick-off meetingSkopje, 29-30 May 2013Skopje, 29-30 May 2013

D. Ivanov, WMO Regional Office for EuropeD. Ivanov, WMO Regional Office for Europe

Focus on SE Europe

WMO implemented, in collaboration with UNDP and other partners, the Action: “Regional cooperation in SEE for meteorological, hydrological and climate data management and exchange to support Disaster Risk Reduction” during the period April 2009 – October 2011.

(IPA/2009/199-922)

All materials available on: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/d rr/projects/SEE/SEE_en.html

The new Project – WMO Focus areas

Enhance the regional risk assessment and mapping capacities through improved capacity of beneficiaries in hazard analysis and mapping

Enhance IPA beneficiaries’ capacity to forecast hazardous meteorological and hydrological phenomena and deliver timely warnings to support DRR

Develop capacity needed to support climate risk management and climate change adaptation into a national and regional DRR agenda

Design a regional Multi-Hazard Early Warning System composed of harmonized national Early Warning Systems within a regional cooperation framework

IPA2012 Project – Work Packages (WMO)

How to improve our warning services

Warnings are requisite services for any NMHS:

WMO Convention (preamble): the mission of NMHSs is to provide services in support of:

A) Protection of life and property

The Mission statement of any NMHS should include this requisite service

Historically, the first meteorological forecasts were of warning type – Admiral Fitzroy in the 1860s tried to issue warnings for shipping to prevent damage caused by storms

Warning type of service has been developed for different users, e.g., aviation, where SIGMET is “warning for hazardous en-route conditions”; agriculture – frost warnings, etc; building construction – wind; etc.

How to improve our warning services

The main type of warning service is related to disaster risk reduction (DRR)

Some inherent characteristics of hydrometeorological warnings and how to measure performance:

Essentially, the warning information for DRR is a forecast or a “nowcast” (we make it possible to be “early”)

It deals with rare events, or high impact events, or weather extremes

Hydrometeorological warning information is provided as an input to the Early Warning System; it triggers a decision-making process, which involves different “actors”

The quality of this “input” is essential for the effectiveness and efficiency of the life- and property-saving action and is directly related to the total loss reduction or risk reduction

Simplified (static) model

Warning

ObsYES NO

YES Hit (occur.) Miss

NO False Alarm Hit (non-occur.)

Simplified (static) model - effects

Lifesaving

Econ. losses

Credibility VisibilityCost/benefit

note

Hit (occ.) +++ ++ +++ +++ +++

High impact events – high public attention

Hit (non-occ.)

0 0 + 0 0

May create wrong judgment on overall quality

Miss - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Worst case;High liability

False alarm

0 0 - - - - - - - Bad case;Some liability

Simplified (static) model

With regard to warning product, the ultimate goal for the NMHS should be:

• Maximize the Hits

• Minimize the Misses

• Reduce the False Alarms as much as possible (even though, a tendency for “overforecasting” exists)

• Evaluate performance with account of impact

Simple Dynamic model

The uncertainty is function of time – when we come closer to the occurrence of a severe event, uncertainty is reduced (e.g., tornado warnings in US)

The system should allow for quick assimilation of new information and issuance of updates/amendments

E.g., in aviation a wrong forecast is not penalized if an amended forecast is issued on time

Thus, the performance can be improved with a continues data assimilation and forecasting process with information from different sources

Adaptive decision-making process

Complex model

The user comes into the system

The ultimate goal becomes not our own performance but the decision-making process and related action

The concept of value chain (Adriaan Perrels, RA VI TT on SEB)

The potential value of weather/warning information service is filtered through several steps:

• attained accuracy• customer/user orientation• access to information• comprehension of the information• ability to respond timely and effectively• actual effectiveness of respond action• cost/benefit of response

Complex model – other considerations

• Quality Assurance

• Liability

• Competition

• Funding opportunities

• Regionalism

Complex model – other considerations

• Quality Assurance/Management

WMO has developed a Quality Management Framework (QMF) as part of the Technical Regulations

Aviation service providers have a mandatory requirement for a QMS; it is recommended to implement ISO 9000 set of standards (currently ISO 9001:2008)

QMS in aviation is part of a broader Safety Management System (ICAO)

QMS is strongly recommended for any service with inherent liabilities

QMS ensures clear, optimized and standardized processes and procedures (minimizes “improvisation”)

QMS ensures customer focus, continues improvement, performance-based evaluation

Complex model – other considerations

• Quality Assurance/Management

• Hypothetical case:

Two forecasters Ivan and Milan – slightly different level of experience and skill (Ivan > Milan)

The attained level of performance of the forecasting system is 87%

Ivan adds value of 3%; Milan maintains the attained performance of 87%

QMS should ensure that: 1) the attained performance is sustainable; 2) the added value of Ivan is studied and considered in the continues improvement process

Complex model – other considerations

• Quality Assurance/Management

• RA VI Study 2013:

QMS for aviation is implemented in more than 90% of RA VI Members

Almost 50% of Members achieved QMS ISO certification for the NMHS as a whole, including some IPA beneficiaries – Turkey, Serbia; Croatia is close to certification

The 16th Session of RA VI (September 2013) may recommend more “aggressive” QMS by NMHSs in all areas or service, in particular, services for DRR (to become a WMO regulatory requirement)

IPA Project QMS training – 8-10 July 2013, Zagreb

Complex model – other considerations

• Liability

Can a forecaster or a NMHS be sued for wrong information?

Who is accountable for the “Misses” and “False alarms”, knowing that the warning products are science based with inherent uncertainties

These are still “gray areas”

However, there have been cases of legal actions against “negligence” – non provision of information which was possible to provide

Insurance towards such liabilities is important

Very important – inform authorities of your current capabilities – system-wise

Complex model – other considerations

• Competition

WMO has the position for NMHS as “single authoritative voice” for warning information

However, such “monopoly” situation is not favored by EU

More and more, services are open to competition; EU data policy allows engagement of private service providers; technology is available

Nevertheless, NMHSs should strive to keep the position of “authority”; to be defended through quality and excellence, as well as support from other DRR stakeholders

Complex model – other considerations

• Competition and funding opportunities

Other type of competition is for public funding

In the heavy economic situation most of the W Balkan countries are, NMHSs are in competition for public funding with other crucial sectors – health, education, security, etc.

The case of NMHSs should be defended through demonstration of socio-economic benefits, building partnerships, visibility, relevance to development agenda

The need for sustaining and modernizing infrastructure, information technology, human resources need to be continuously demonstrated and advocated

Pro-active management approach is vital!

Complex model – other considerations

• Competition and funding opportunities

Most of the successful large-scale modernization projects in the region have been through external funding: Albania and Moldova – World Bank; Slovenia – EU cohesion funds

Smaller scale projects have been funded by USAID, GIZ

Preparation of acceptable project proposals and finding the appropriate external funding mechanisms with governement support is vital

Complex model – other considerations

• Regionalism

SEEDRMAP and IPA Phase One project strongly recommended regional approach to DRR

The exact modalities and practical solutions of such regional approach are yet to be determined and developed

Extended regionalism becomes a common tendency; EU is strongly behind such approach as a cost-effective solution to common problems (e.g., MIC, EFAS, Copernicus)

Technology to support regional service provision exists

Political will and institutional framework need to be built

THANK YOU!