brunei’s energy future - asia inc forum...jul 01, 2010 · ex : planned heat recovery and...

National Environment Conference, 01 July 2010, The Empire Hotel and Country Club

Brunei’s Energy Future:a Global Perspective

Yves GrosjeanGeneral Manager

Total E&P Borneo

2 - Brunei’s Energy Future: a Global Perspective – Yves Grosjean – National Environment Conference, 01 July 2010, The Empire Hotel and Country Club

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Global Energy demand

2030 forecast



Global energy demand growth

OECD Non-OECD

Energy demandGDPPopulation

Energy demand growth driven by demography

and economic development in Non-OECD countries

50

150

250

350

1980 2005 2030(e)

Mboe/d

1.2%

1.8 %

1.8 %

0.4 %

Trillions

$ 2005

50

100

150

200

1980 2005 2030(e)

3.6 %

5.3%

2.0%

Average growth per year

2005-2030(e)

1 %

2

4

6

8

10

1980 2005 2030(e)

Billions

1.1 %

0.3 %

(purchasing power parity)

Sources : Total estimates

1.5 %

1.8 %

0.5 % 3%

3.7%

3.3 %

2.6%

1.4%

5 - Brunei’s Energy Future: a Global Perspective – Yves Grosjean – National Environment Conference, 01 July 2010, The Empire Hotel and Country Club5

0

100

200

300

400

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Fossil energies to represent 75% of energy supply in 2030

World energy supply 2005 – 2030

Source: Total estimates. * Million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Mboe/d*

81% Fossil:

34% Oil

21% Gas

75% Fossil:

30% Oil

22% Gas

Efficient CO2 emissions management and

diversification of energy supply are key issues

Solar, Wind, other renewable energies Hydro

Biomass excluding biofuels

Nuclear

Coal

Gas

Biofuels

Oil


Oil and gas demand driven respectively by transportation and power generation

Industrial -3%

Petrochemicals +47%

Transportation +23%

Residential -1%

Power generation -33%

30(e)

100

Mb/d

50

09(e) 15(e)

Oil will remain the energy of choice for Transportation

Gas preferred to Oil or Nuclear for Power Generation

Power generation +65%

Bcf/d

Industrial +34%

Residential +10%

09(e) 30(e)

+1.6%/y

15(e)

400

200

Oil demand by sector Gas demand by sector

+0.7%/y

Total estimates


Global Energy supply

52% Oil & Gas in 2030



Significant hydrocarbon resources yet to be produced

Total estimates

Oil resources Gas resources

With advanced technology and large scale investments hydrocarbons

will remain the dominant fuel source for the next decades

~3,000 Bboe

Unconventional resourcesoil shale, shale gas, coal bed methane, tight gas

Heavy oil

New discoveries and increased recovery rate

Identified resources33 years of production

at current pace

50 years

100 years

70 years

>2,000 Bboe

55 years of production at current pace

80 years

125 years

Already produced


2010 Breakeven Price (10% IRR) per class of Oil Resource:Higher revenue to the producer unlocks additional Oil

Billions of barrels

80

60

40

1000 2000 3000

20OPEC

Middle East

Other

Conventional

Deep

water

Ultra

deepwater

EnhancedRecovery

Extra

Heavy

oil

Oil shales

100

Arctic

Billions of barrels

80

60

40

1000 2000 3000

20OPEC

Middle East

Other

Conventional

Deep

water

Ultra

deepwater

EnhancedRecovery

Extra

Heavy

Oil

Oil shales

100

Arctic

$/bbl

Sources: IEA, CERA, Total


Renewable energies will grow but not enough

+ 1.7 %

+ 8.3 %

+ 7.6 %

+ 2.5 %

Biofuels (incl BtL)

Solar, wind, etc

Hydroelectric power

Biomass (incl. forest use in developing countries)

1924

28

364

5

7

10

3

9

2

3

1

1990 2005 2015 2030

24

31

58Mboe/d

Estimates

41

Annual growth2005 - 2030

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook , Alternative Policy Scenario


Oil products: 82.5% Taxes – 17.5% Costswhat more can we do to help the development of alternative energy ?

(in the EU)


Climate Change:the limiting factor

how to reduce GHG emissions ?



Limiting greenhouse gas emissions is needed for sustainable growth according to scientists

source : IEA 2008

All technologies needed to reach CO2 concentration targets

High costs to implement required GHG reductions

All countries must be involved, including non-OECD countries

In any case, end-use efficiency is by far the greatest contributor

GHG* emissions

Bt/y

International Energy Agency climate scenarios

CCS*** in power

generation

Renewables

Nuclear

CCS in industry

Biofuels

Electricity end-use

efficiency

End-use efficiency


TOTAL reduces flaring : no flaring on new projects and flaring reduction on existing fields

Flaring reduction target : -50% in 2014 vs 2005

Flaring reduction technologies :

Valorization of associated gas through LNG

Increase reinjection

Associated gas treatment without flaring :

On new projects

Currently producing : Girassol, Dalia and Akpo

Ongoing projects : Pazflor, Usan, Egina

On existing fields

Abu Al-Bu Koosh (Abu Dhabi)

Nkossa (Congo)

Amenam (Nigeria)

Maharaja Lela (Brunei)

New Flash-Gas Compressor at OPP


15The CO2 pilot at Lacq – N. AIMARD –

March 2009Lacq deep gas reservoir

OxygenProduction Unit

Lacq gas production

1

Natural gasinlet

2

gas treatmentplant

3

Commercial gas

4Utilities

Boiler oxycombustion

5

CO2

6

CO2 Transportation

7

Compression

8CO2 injection

9

CO2 storage

10

4000 m

4500 m Natural gas

SteamCO2 purification

/ dehydration

Compression

Rousse reservoir

CO2 injection

CO2 transportation

CO2 capture

Gas production

CO2 Capture and geological Storage: a Reference Project by Totalopening the way to 7000 large industrial sites worldwide (IPCC)

The Lacq pilot is ...• 1/10th of future facilities

• 120 k t CO2 injected in 2 yrs (2010 – 2011)

• 5 yrs storage monitoring

• 60 M€ covered by Total only


TOTAL Energy Efficiency Program

Operational optimization including monitoring,

reliability and maintenance

Ex : furnaces and boilers

from 0.5% to 4% of site Energy Efficiency Index gain

More energy efficient new projects

Ex : planned heat recovery and Packinox exchanger

from 0.8% to 3% of site Energy Efficiency Index gain

Sharing best practices and technologies

R&D partnerships :

Capital investment

100 M€ for a 5-year program to promote efficient technologies

for small and medium enterprises

Targets for optimization : -1% per year for Refining and

-2% per year for E&P and Petrochemicals


Capitalizing on our industrial assets, R&D and partnerships

2005 2030(e)

Solar, wind, other renewablesHydro

Biomass, excluding biofuels

Nuclear

Coal

Gas

Biofuels

Oil

Global energy mix by 2030(e)*

75% fossil fuel

30% oil

22% gas

Low-CO2 energies : main axes selected by Total

* Total estimates

Developing low-CO2 energies to meet the climate challenge

Strengthening industrial and downstream integration Photovoltec, Tenesol, Abu Dhabi solar project

Technological differentiation (JVs and partnerships for R&D) IMEC (crystaline PV), LPICM (thin films), Konarka (organic

PV), MIT (batteries), AE Polysilicon (polysilicon for PV)

Solar : integration and advanced R&D

8.33% interest in Penly project

Developing projects in countries where the Group

has a presence

Nuclear : acquiring expertise

R&D on thermochemical processes BioTfuel pilot (gasifying biomass)

R&D on biotechnological processes Futurol pilot (lignocellulose)

Gevo (sugars g isobutanol)

Academic partners (CNRS,…)

Biomass : R&D for advanced biofuels and green chemicals

Mboe/d

350

250

150

50

17 -June 2010


Brunei’s Energy Future: a Global Perspective

High stakes: meeting Energy Demand and Protecting the Climate

Oil & Gas likely to account for >50% of world primary energy consumption by 2030

→ frontier exploration is critical to make new resources available (HPHT, Deep Water)

Develop technical solutions like CCS to limit related emissions

Improve efficiency and Diversify the Energy mix

Necessary development of alternative energy options

→ Nuclear, Biomass, Photovoltaics and Other Renewables to secure the Future

The best alternative of all = End-Use Efficiency → combined cycle, co-generation, …

High Challenges

Mandatory investments upfront (efficiency or exploration) ↔ high reward for Brunei

Proficient workforce ↔ will fuel the growth in other sectors

Mandatory technological innovations ↔ available via partnerships

Not to forget: Deforestation is the second most important source of GHG emissions (after Coal)

National Environment Conference, 01 July 2010, The Empire Hotel and Country Club

Terima kasih


Energy Supply and Climate Change

the TOTAL commitment


21 - Brunei’s Energy Future: a Global Perspective – Yves Grosjean – National Environment Conference, 01 July 2010, The Empire Hotel and Country Club21

Anticipating the future energy demand

Supporting growth potential in oil and gas through new technologies

Improving industrial and product efficiency and reducing environmental impact

Accelerating the development of core competencies in new energies

Increasing leverage to R&D

Environmental performance : 10%

Air, water, biodiversity

CO2 capture and storage

Resources : 35%

Exploration efficiency

EOR

Oil sands

Photovoltaic, biomass

Innovative technologies & process optimization : 20%

Asset efficiency and reliability

Conversion, X-to-Ys pilots

Products : 35%

Competitiveness

New markets

Environmental impact

Energy efficiency for customers

7.1 B$

2009-2014(e)

R&D investment in 2009 : 0.9 B$

-June 2010


Low CO2 intensity

Limited potential

Environmental impact (population

displacement…)

Low CO2 intensity expected

from 2nd generation biofuels

Complementary source for liquid fuels

Competition with food security for

1st generation biofuels

Costs, global analysis

(water…)

Low CO2 intensity

Limited technological progress

High costs

Acceptability

Variable peak rate

Unlimited supply

Strong potential for efficiency

and cost improvement

Access to electricity in remote areas

High costs in early stages

Variable peak rate

Renewables Pros and Cons

Solar : very high rate of growth but still a limited part of the power mix in 2030

Biofuels : development favored by availability of 2nd generation fuels

Rate of growth pa. 2010 - 2030 (%) Pros Cons

Total estimates

5 10 15 20

Solar

Wind

Biofuels

Hydro

%


Implementing innovative solutions for end-users

Excellium premium engine fuels launched in 2005

New “Total Ecosolutions” program launched in 2009

More energy efficient and environment-friendly

products and services

Labeling process

ISO 14021 principles

External audits

12 products already labeled

Total Ecosolutions products avoid up to 500 kt/y CO2

Heating systemsPackagingLubricants

brunei’s energy future - asia inc forum...jul 01, 2010 · ex : planned heat recovery and...

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