8/8/2019 Brief - Future Scenarios for Global Poverty 2010-2020

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International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC - IG)

Poverty Practice, Bureau for Development Policy, UNDP

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The views expressed in this page are the authors and not

necessarily those of the United Nations Development

Programme or the Government of Brazil.

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The International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth is jointly supported

by the Poverty Practice, Bureau for Development Policy, UNDPand the Government of Brazil.

August, 201

No. 114

What Are the Implications of the Global Crisisand Its Aftermath for Poverty Reduction,

20102020? by Andy Sumner, Institute of Development Studies;Joe Ballantyne and Andrew Curry, The Futures Company

Some major game changers beyond the recenteconomic crisis and food/fuel crisis will have an impact on the

Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to 2015 and beyond,

such as climate change, technological change and urbanization.

Scenariosmultiple coherent and plausible futuresserve

as a vehicle to act on possible future(s) and to interpret their

implications (such as those developed in the box) for the

prospects of reducing poverty in developing countries.

Reference:

What are the Implications of the Global Crisis and Its Aftermath for Developing Countries?,

IPC-IG Working Paper. Brasilia, International Policy Institute for Inclusive Growth.

Scenarios and Key Drivers

The Odd Couple: key drivers

! Development of minilateralism and protectionismin trade flows

! Steady increase in energy prices! A common regulatory framework for emission reductions! Continued internal polarisation of wealthy/poor

Big Dipper: key drivers

! Collapse of the US dollar! Bilateralism! Increased volatility in energy prices! Piecemeal/regionalised environmental

regulation mechanisms

Western (re)invention: key drivers

! Development of western multilateralism! Rejuvenation of western economies and maintenance

of their share of GDP

! Steady increases in energy price! Framework for emission reductions and asset transfer

from rich to poor countries via carbon credits

South-by-southeast:key drivers

! Minilateralism! Rapid shift in wealth from west to east! Sharp rise in energy prices! Low-income countries excluded from emissions

until thresholds reached

Code:"rising;# stagnating or declining.Green = positive prospects; Orange = mixed; Red = negative prospect

At a macro level, future outcomes for oil-exporting countries are

positive in all scenarios except Big Dipper, where they could be

unstable. Fuel-exporting countries generally produce good

outcomes at the level of the MDGs in the model, although there ar

risks in the distribution of benefits and governance becomes even

more important for these countries. In sharp contrast, outcomes

for net fuel importers are much more negative. Outcomes are

particularly poor for countries that are net fuel importers and

also dependent on primary commodity exports and aid. For thesecountries, concentration on delivery of essential aid to the poorest

will continue to be important, as will institutional capacity buildin

Summary of Implications for Poverty Reduction, 20102020

Scenarios Odd Couple Big DipperWestern

Reinvention

South by

Southeas

Likely Trends in Key Transmissions Variables

Fuel prices " " " "

Non-fuel commodity prices # # " "

Size of aid flows # # " #

Size of private capital flows # # " #

Prospects for MDGs and Medium-Term Poverty Reduction

Fuel exporters Green/Orange Green/Orange Green Green

Fuel importers

(non-dependent)Orange Red Green Green

Fuel importers that are

non-fuel commodity

export-dependent

Red Red Green Green

Fuel importers that are

non-fuel commodity

export- and aid-dependent

Red Red Green Orange/Red

http://www.ipc-undp.org/pub/IPCWorkingPaper68.pdfhttp://www.ipc-undp.org/pub/IPCWorkingPaper68.pdfhttp://www.ipc-undp.org/pub/IPCWorkingPaper68.pdfhttp://www.ipc-undp.org/pub/IPCWorkingPaper68.pdfhttp://www.ipc-undp.org/roller/blog/entry/what_are_the_implications_ofhttp://www.ipc-undp.org/pub/IPCWorkingPaper68.pdf