brian fuchs, climatologist national drought mitigation center university of nebraska-lincoln drought...
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Brian Fuchs, Climatologist National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Drought Monitoring: Challenges in the Western United
States
The Climate Impacts GroupAnnual Fall Forecasting Meeting
October 22, 2009Boise, Idaho
The U.S. Drought MonitorSince 1999, NOAA (CPC and NCDC), USDA, and the NDMC have produced a weekly composite drought map -- the U.S. Drought
Monitor -- with input from numerous federal and non-federal partners
A partnership between the NDMC, USDA and NOAA’s CPC, NCDC, and RCC’s (authors)Incorporate relevant information and products from all entities (and levels of government) dealing with drought (RCC’s, SC’s, federal/state agencies, etc.) (experts)
The Drought Monitor is updated weekly and provides a general up-to-date summary of current drought conditions across the 50 states, Puerto Rico and the Pacific possessions
The Drought Monitor Concept
A consolidation of indices and indicators into one comprehensive national drought map
Trying to capture these characteristics:the drought’s magnitude (duration + intensity)
spatial extent
probability of occurrence
Impacts
Rates drought intensity by
Percentile Rankings
The Drought Monitor Concept
Original Objectives
“Fujita-like” scale
NOT a forecast!
NOT a drought declaration!
Identify impacts (A, H)
Assessment of current conditions
Incorporate local expert input
Be as objective as possible
Key Variables For Monitoring Drought
climate datasoil moisturestream flowground waterreservoir and lake levelssnow packshort, medium, and long range forecastsvegetation health/stress and fire danger
U.S. Drought Monitor Integrates Key Drought Indicators:
- Palmer Drought Index- SPI- KBDI- Modeled Soil Moisture- 7-Day Avg. Streamflow- Precipitation Anomalies
Growing Season:- Crop Moisture Index- Sat. Veg. Health Index- Soil Moisture- Mesonet data
In The West:- SWSI- Reservoir levels- Snowpack- Streamflow
Created in ArcGIS
Indices for“The West”
USGS Streamflow CPC Daily Soil Model
Satellite Veg Health
SPI Drought Index USDA Soil Ratings
Principal Drought Monitor InputsPrincipal Drought Monitor Inputs
Palmer Drought Index
Use of the DM in Decision Making
USDA Dried Milk Program 2002-03
USDA CRP Release hot spot trigger
Numerous states use as a drought trigger (Governor’s declarations)
2006 USDA Livestock Assistance
2006 IRS (tax deferral on livestock losses)
Challenges?
NRCS Data (RAWS & SNOTEL) Data Density
Basin DataSWSI not being calculated for all basins
State DataWell/Reservoir Data sets not centralized
Climate Change
Population Shifts
New Efforts ?California Drought Tracker
WASHINGTON –Secretary of the Interior Dirk Kempthorne has approved $9.2 million in Water 2025 Challenge Grants for water conservation projects across the West.
The grants will help fund 44 projects in 11 states. Including the matching contributions of non-federal partners, the selected projects represent a combined investment of more than $32 million in water management improvements.
July 26, 2007 www.doi.gov/water2025.
Stresses on Western Water
Population Projections (2000-2030)
Greatest increases expected in the driest states.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
NEEDS: FRESH WATER!
It’s all about the water!
National Drought Mitigation Centerhttp://drought.unl.edu/dm