breathing life back into our citiesStadtluft macht frei?

The best laid masterplansDo our visions create space for the unpredictable?

Beyond boom and bust?What kind of world will our children inherit?

Ready, willing and ableHow our cities can be prepared for an uncertain future

A pumping heartPutting the city centre back where it belongs

Events, dear boy, events...How far can we predict the pace and impact of change?

Never mind all that, what about the empty shops?The end of retail-led regeneration, and a new role for the market

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Remember it’s only 20 years since...The Maastricht Treaty paved

the way for the Euro

The Church of England voted

for women priests

The term ‘surfing the

internet’ was first recorded

Bob Dylan held his 30th

anniversary concert

It is the next generation and the one after that, not this one, that will judge the wisdom of the decisions we take for our cities

How will we see life today in 20 years?

‣ In 1992 there were 26 web servers online in the world. How digitally connected will we be in 2032?

‣ In 1992 London’s Baltic Exchange was bombed. What threats will we face in 2032?

‣ In 1992 Amazon.com didn’t exist. How will we shop in 2032?

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“We are probably nearing the limit of all we can know about astronomy.”

Simon Newcomb, astronomer, 1888

The best laid masterplansDo our visions create space for the unpredictable?

Beyond boom and bust?What kind of world will our children inherit?

Ready, willing and ableHow our cities can be prepared for an uncertain future

A pumping heartPutting the city centre back where it belongs

Events, dear boy, events...How far can we predict the pace and impact of change?

Never mind all that, what about the empty shops?The end of retail-led regeneration, and a new role for the market

1

2

3

4

5

6

Six steps to heaven (or, failing that, shopping and office nirvana)Urban renaissance: a guide for wishful thinkers

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Lament your city’s poor retail offer, old offices and derelict warehouses

Create funky public spaces with street art, fountains,

and bijou restaurants

Spend years seeking compulsory purchase of sites

you need to redevelop

Bring in a world-famous architect to design a masterplan (blobby buildings optional)

Do deals with global retail developers to create a shopping centre with big-name anchor tenants

Sit back and watch the market work its magic (having invested millions in public subsidy)

And here’s one they prepared earlier...Bradford: from vision to disappointment to...?

The best plans are skeletons. It is the people of the city, working together, who put flesh on the bones and bring them to life.

Without the people, the vision perishes

‣ Challenge 1: Investment. Is the old model of property speculation and rising land values broken?

‣ Challenge 2: Jobs. There are 17.4m jobseekers across the eurozone, with another 4.5m job losses predicted by the ILO.

‣ Challenge 3: Poverty. Patterns of deprivation in UK cities have proved resistant to successive interventions.

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“The government has made global change our ally...”

‘Prosperous Places’, DCLG, 2007

The best laid masterplansDo our visions create space for the unpredictable?

Beyond boom and bust?What kind of world will our children inherit?

Ready, willing and ableHow our cities can be prepared for an uncertain future

A pumping heartPutting the city centre back where it belongs

Events, dear boy, events...How far can we predict the pace and impact of change?

Never mind all that, what about the empty shops?The end of retail-led regeneration, and a new role for the market

1

2

3

4

5

6

Are we witnessing the first generation of children in the UK who have poorer life chances than their parents?

Civilisations don’t collapse, do they?

Pioneers and traders build settlements and markets, producing new goods and services through exchange and innovation

Empire builders use the advantages of power and resources to expand their operations, keeping competitors in client relationships

Consumers enjoy a standard of living created by their predecessors without renewing the resources they depend on. Production and innovation decline

Civilisations collapse from within, through loss of energy and resources; and without, as others take over territory and markets. What might be the triggers for us?

Pioneers Traders Empire builders Consumers Survivors?

Why we need to look beyond a narrative of deficit reduction5 risk factors facing our cities

Scarcity Climate change Demographics Capital flight Political unrest

85% of the world’s ocean fisheries are fully exploited, over-exploited or depleted

UK floods, 2007: 13 dead7,000 businesses affected48,000 homes flooded

By 2050, there will be more people over the age of 60 in the world than children under 15

5 October 2012: Greek prime minister compares effects of unemployment to 1930s Germany

Global investment decisions are shifting: 2 of the world’s top 5 sovereign wealth funds are Chinese

“Climate change is affecting the ocean in ways that we are only beginning to understand.”

World Bank, 2012

The best laid masterplansDo our visions create space for the unpredictable?

Beyond boom and bust?What kind of world will our children inherit?

Ready, willing and ableHow our cities can be prepared for an uncertain future

A pumping heartPutting the city centre back where it belongs

Events, dear boy, events...How far can we predict the pace and impact of change?

Never mind all that, what about the empty shops?The end of retail-led regeneration, and a new role for the market

1

2

3

4

5

6

Qualities for surviving and thriving in an unpredictable worldTowards a sustainable city

‣ Living within environmental limits AND

‣ Ensuring a strong, just and healthy society AND

‣ Achieving a sustainable economy AND

‣ Involving citizens in decision-making AND

‣ Using sound evidence to inform our plans and actions

Key principles:adaptable

productive

sustainable?

creative

stewarding

The city of the future is a city of social and functional integration, cultural

diversity, accessible education, resource conservation and regional dialogue.

(Freiburg Charter for sustainable urbanism)

“Human cleverness, desires, motivations, imagination and creativity are replacing location, natural resources and market access as urban resources.”

Charles Landry, The Creative City (2000)

The best laid masterplansDo our visions create space for the unpredictable?

Beyond boom and bust?What kind of world will our children inherit?

Ready, willing and ableHow our cities can be prepared for an uncertain future

A pumping heartPutting the city centre back where it belongs

Events, dear boy, events...How far can we predict the pace and impact of change?

Never mind all that, what about the empty shops?The end of retail-led regeneration, and a new role for the market

1

2

3

4

5

6

Creating space to breathe: the oxygen that keeps the city aliveHow the city centre can shape the future

Reviving the civic

Localising investment

Inspiring innovation

Prioritising production

Greening the economy

“High streets and town centres that are fit for the 21st century need to be multifunctional social centres, not simply competitors for stretched consumers.”

‘The 21st Century Agora’

The best laid masterplansDo our visions create space for the unpredictable?

Beyond boom and bust?What kind of world will our children inherit?

Ready, willing and ableHow our cities can be prepared for an uncertain future

A pumping heartPutting the city centre back where it belongs

Events, dear boy, events...How far can we predict the pace and impact of change?

Never mind all that, what about the empty shops?The end of retail-led regeneration, and a new role for the market

1

2

3

4

5

6

Do we put demand back in the economy, or demand a better economy?Can we shop our way to a better future?

Retail-led regeneration

is failing

Order can be the enemy of

activity

Resilience is the new

renaissance

Access is better than ownership

Time is more important

than money

“The soul of the city - the strength which makes it breathe, exist and progress - resides in each one of its citizens.”

Jaime Lerner, mayor of Curitiba, Brazil