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BNZ LTER Program Role in the National LTER Network LTER Network Decadal Plan 2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting

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Page 1: BNZ LTER Program Role in the National LTER Network LTER Network Decadal Plan 2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting

BNZ LTER Program Role in the National LTER Network

LTER Network Decadal Plan

2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting

Page 2: BNZ LTER Program Role in the National LTER Network LTER Network Decadal Plan 2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting

LTER Network Decadal PlanIntegrated Science for Science and the Environment

(aka ISSE)

Three Themes1. Land and Water Use Change – the dynamics of urban,

exurban, and working systems2. Climate Change, Variability, and Extreme Events3. Nutrient Mobilization and Species Introductions

Funding MechanismsNo ISSE ProgramULTRALTER Working Group Proposals (8) – CNHScience Council to develop cross network initiativesAugmentation of NSF LTER Budget

Page 3: BNZ LTER Program Role in the National LTER Network LTER Network Decadal Plan 2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting

ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

Regulating: Nutrient filtration, nutrient retention, C sequestration, disease regulation

Provisioning: food and fiber production,

Cultural: aesthetics & recreation

ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONFlux, transport, storage,

transformation, stoichiometry,

productivity

COMMUNITY STRUCTUREVegetation turnover time

Trophic structureMicrobial communities

PULSES: Fire, drought, storms; dust events, pulse nutrient inputs; fertilization

PRESSES: Climate change; nutrient loading; sea-level rise; increased human resource use

HUMAN BEHAVIOR

RegulationMarkets

MigrationInstitutional

Q4Q3

Q2Q1

HUMAN OUTCOMES

Exposure riskQuality of lifeHuman health

Perception and value

Q4b

Geophysical Template

Socio-cultural-economic Template

Q4a

Q5

External drivers earthquake, tsunami

Page 4: BNZ LTER Program Role in the National LTER Network LTER Network Decadal Plan 2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting

LTER Network Decadal PlanIntegrated Science for Science and the Environment

(aka ISSE)

Three Themes1. Land and Water Use Change – the dynamics of urban,

exurban, and working systems2. Climate Change, Variability, and Extreme Events3. Nutrient Mobilization and Species Introductions

Funding MechanismsNo ISSE ProgramULTRALTER Working Group Proposals (8) – CNHScience Council to develop cross network initiativesAugmentation of NSF LTER Budget

Page 5: BNZ LTER Program Role in the National LTER Network LTER Network Decadal Plan 2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting

2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting

Integrating Science and Society in an Ever-Changing World

September 14-16, 2009 at YMCA of the Rockies, Estes Park, Colorado

Important DatesMarch 4– second call, including preliminary program March 9 – Information to sites on funding March 22 – working group submission opens April 1 – housing reservations open May 1 – poster submission opens June 1 – meeting registration opens June 15 – housing reservations close; room block released July 1 –working group and poster submissions close August 15 – final program

Discussion IssuesGraduate Student Symposium on 13 SeptemberILTER Meeting on Ecosystem Services on 12 and 13 SeptemberSome funding for travel provided by the LTER Network OfficeWorking Groups

Page 6: BNZ LTER Program Role in the National LTER Network LTER Network Decadal Plan 2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting

BNZ LTER Synthesis Issue of Canadian Journal of Forest

Research (CJFR)

Title: The Dynamics of Change in Alaska’s Boreal Forests: Resilience and Vulnerability in Response to Climate Warming

Page 7: BNZ LTER Program Role in the National LTER Network LTER Network Decadal Plan 2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting

Climate Sensitivity and Resilience/Vulnerability

Response of White Spruce Growth to Climate (McGuire et al.)

Response of Stream Flow to Climate (Jones et al.)

Response of Permafrost and Effects of Ecosystems (Jorgensen et al.)

Changing Moss Communities (Turetsky et al.)

Climate Variability and Snow Shoe Hare Population Cycles (Kielland et al.)

Page 8: BNZ LTER Program Role in the National LTER Network LTER Network Decadal Plan 2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting

Long term response of stream flow to climatic warming in headwater streams of interior Alaska (Jones and Rinehart)

Overview:

• With climatic warming and permafrost thaw, flowpaths through watersheds underlain by permafrost will likely change

• Predicted shift towards greater base flow contributions to stream flow and less flashy storm hydrographs

• Objectives of research to synthesize patterns in stream flow hydrographs over 29 year record for three headwater streams draining watersheds with varying extents of underlying permafrost.

Page 9: BNZ LTER Program Role in the National LTER Network LTER Network Decadal Plan 2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting

Factors Affecting Permafrost Degradation

Topography• Insolation• Runoff• Lapse Rate• Snowfall

Surface Water• albedo• convective heat

Ground Water• advective heat

Soil Texture• Peat vs Gravel vs Silt• Drainage• Moisture• Thermal properties

Vegetation• Albedo• Shading• Insulation• Snow Interception

Loess

Perm

afro

st

Gravel RiverbedThick Peat

Retransported Silt

Bedrock

Stratified Silt and Sand

Thaw Lake

Ground Ice• Thaw settlement

Page 10: BNZ LTER Program Role in the National LTER Network LTER Network Decadal Plan 2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting

Consequences of Permafrost Degradation

• Hydrologic reorganization• Stream export changes (sediment, DOC)• Soil carbon sequestration or loss• Trace gas emissions• Habitat shifts• Habitat use and wildlife abundance• Infrastructure Damage• Overland transport

Approximately 70% of Interior Alaska susceptible to permafrost loss

Page 11: BNZ LTER Program Role in the National LTER Network LTER Network Decadal Plan 2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting

1) Use meta-analysis to address key assumptions about moss and boreal ecosystem

• Moss vs. vascular NPP• Moss vs. vascular decomposition• Changing moss abundance with N, temp, fire

2) Apply insight to understand implications of changing moss abundance across LTER sites

Goals for synthesis chapter

Page 12: BNZ LTER Program Role in the National LTER Network LTER Network Decadal Plan 2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

De

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ty (

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res

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-1)

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6

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10

Hare cycle on Riparian trap grid BNZ LTER 1998-2008

0

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Jun Aug Nov

Po

pu

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on

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SpruceM0

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0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

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0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Su

rviv

al

Rip(S)

Spruce(S)

Kaplan-Meier survival estimatesRemains of lynx-killed snowshoe hare

Page 13: BNZ LTER Program Role in the National LTER Network LTER Network Decadal Plan 2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting

Disturbance, Successional Dynamics in Resilience/Vulnerability

Changing Plant Communities in Floodplain Turning Points (Hollingsworth et al.)

Forest Growth Dynamics in Upland and Floodplain Turning Points (Yarie et al.)

Spatial and Temporal Structure of Fungal Communities (Taylor et al.)

Alaska’s Changing Fire Regime (Kasischke et al.)

Fire and Resilience (Johnstone et al.)

Fire, Trees, and Nitrogen (Mack et al.)

Insect and Pathogen Disturbance Regimes (Juday et al.)

Page 14: BNZ LTER Program Role in the National LTER Network LTER Network Decadal Plan 2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting

Research Questions (Hollingsworth)

• Are there identifiable understory turning points that mirror the overstory changes in succession?

• Have changes in climate been manifested in unexpected understory vegetation changes?

MethodsIntroductionResults:

CoverResults: Composition

Conclusions

Page 15: BNZ LTER Program Role in the National LTER Network LTER Network Decadal Plan 2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting

a

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Cu

mu

lati

ve B

as

al

Are

a G

row

th (

cm2

)

0

20

40

60

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Sugar

Control

Sawdust

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Drought

}}

= 8.3970 *X

= 5.18616 * X

= 3.7290 * X

FP3 – White Spruce

Page 16: BNZ LTER Program Role in the National LTER Network LTER Network Decadal Plan 2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting

Concluding remarks (Taylor et al.)

• Fungal diversity in soil is staggering

• We cannot yet fully capture fungal diversity

• Taxa that appear to be rare at a given sampling time and place are not necessarily regionally rare or unimportant

• Boreal forest fungal diversity has strong patchiness at multiple spatial scales, moderate seasonal dynamics, and yet unexpected inter-annual stability

• Soil horizon is an over-riding factor in fungal niche partitioning

• Relating all this diversity to function will be a gargantuan but exciting and worthwhile undertaking

Page 17: BNZ LTER Program Role in the National LTER Network LTER Network Decadal Plan 2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting

Key questions (Johnstone)

• How well do these conceptual models fit our understanding of forest dynamics in Alaska?– Evidence for stable cycles?– Evidence for feedback mechanisms that

generate these cycles?– Evidence of fire generating threshold

responses?

Page 18: BNZ LTER Program Role in the National LTER Network LTER Network Decadal Plan 2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting

Fire, nitrogen loss, and nitrogen availability in black spruce forests of

Interior Alaska

Michelle C. Mack1, Leslie A. Boby1, Edward A.G. Schuur1, Jill F. Johnstone2, Teresa N. Hollingsworth3 and F.S. Chapin, III3

1 University of Florida2 University of Saskatchewan

3 University of Alaska Fairbanks

Page 19: BNZ LTER Program Role in the National LTER Network LTER Network Decadal Plan 2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting

Regional Syntheses of Resilience/Vulnerability

Climate Feedbacks of Alaska’s Boreal Forests (Euskirchen et al.)

Resilience of Human Communities in interior Alaska (Kofinas et al.)

Overall Synthesis of Resilience/Vulnerability

Vulnerability and Resilience of Alaska’s Boreal Forest to Climate Change: A Synthesis of Bonanza Creek LTER Research (Chapin et al.)

Page 20: BNZ LTER Program Role in the National LTER Network LTER Network Decadal Plan 2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting

1. What are the feedbacks to climate in Alaska’s boreal forest?

2. What can we say about the magnitude of these climate feedbacks, both historically and in the future?

3. What are the primary unknowns in obtaining a better understanding of these feedbacks, and what role can earth system models play in helping us better understand these feedback?

The changing effects of Alaska boreal forests on the climate system

E. Euskirchen, A.D. McGuire, F.S. Chapin III, T.S. Rupp

Key Questions:

Page 21: BNZ LTER Program Role in the National LTER Network LTER Network Decadal Plan 2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting

Important Dates for Special Issue

November – Titles

January – Outlines (haven’t received one outline) February 20th – Powerpoint presentations of progress

(haven’t received two)

April 17 – Rough Drafts to Terry, Roger, and myself

May 1 – Feedback from Terry, Roger, and myself

June 1 – Submission of manuscript to me

June 8 – Send all manuscripts to CJFR on CD

Page 22: BNZ LTER Program Role in the National LTER Network LTER Network Decadal Plan 2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting

Breakout Groups

• Biophysical changes in the boreal forest: permafrost and climate feedbacks (Jorgenson, Euskirchen)

• Climate sensitivity of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems (Jones, McGuire)

• Changing community dynamics of mosses, vascular plants (Turetsky, Hollingsworth)

• Microbial and pest response to climate change (Taylor, Juday)

• Changing fire regime and its impact on nitrogen and resilience (Kasischke, Johnstone, Mack)

• Changing animal dynamics and ecosystem services (Kielland, Kofinas)

Page 23: BNZ LTER Program Role in the National LTER Network LTER Network Decadal Plan 2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting

Charge to Breakout Groups

• Within Paper Coordination

• Across Paper Coordination

• Papers need to be frame in Resilience/Vulnerability framework – Introduction, Discussion, Conclusion.

• 8000 words maximum

• Different perspectives of co-authors are fine. Key thing is for paper to clarify these different perspectives and outline how we move forward to reconcile the perspectives.