black sea container ports - european sea ports … · black sea container ports eero vanaale ......

Black Sea

Container Ports

Eero Vanaale Consultant

[email protected]

Varna

2013

© Drewry 2013

2 Drewry | ESPO Conference 2013

Agenda

Global Container market

Black Sea Container market

Black Sea Port market

© Drewry 2013


Global container port handling

Source: Drewry Maritime Research

14%

8%

4% 5%

2010 2011 2012 2013f

549

594

617

646

2010 2011 2012 2013f

Downside risks for Europe,

headhaul E-W trade growth

now slower, how will the

emerging trades perform?

Global port throughput (million teu)

Throughput annual growth (%)

© Drewry 2013


Historic throughput growth (teu)

20%

11% 11% 11%

9% 8%

5%

4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

E EUROPE AFRICA S ASIA MID EAST FAR EAST WORLD SE ASIA LATAMERICA

OCEANIA W EUROPE N AMERICA

CAGR 2000 – 2011


In 2012 growth of 8.6% – still world’s

fastest growing markets, but clearly

slowing

© Drewry 2013


2.3% 3.7%

2012 2013

N America

-0.3% -0.9%

2012 2013

W Europe

8.6% 7.3%

2012 2013

E Europe

5.6% 6.2%

2012 2013

Far East

4.4% 5.7%

2012 2013

L America

4.2% 5.6%

2012 2013

Mid-East

Regional container traffic growth

Drewry market outlook Dec-12 Mar-13 Market direction

Global container traffic growth 2013 4.6% 3.4% Downgraded

Global effective supply growth 2013 6.4% 4.8% Upgraded

Global supply/demand Index 2013 95.4 97.4 Upgraded

Asia-N Europe w/b demand growth 2013 0.7% 0.7% Flat


14.9%

8.2%

3.3%

4.5%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

2010 2011 2012 2013F

Traffic (mTeu)

% Growth

© Drewry 2013


Orderbook Influx of new and very large tonnage while demand is flat

Within 3 years, all Asia-North Europe

strings will be deploying 12,000 teu+ ships

Orderbook stands at 3.4

million teu

48% is for vessels of over

10,000 teu capacity

83% is for delivery by end

2014

59% for account of ocean

carriers

Orderbook is 21% of

existing fleet capacity

Largest vessels now

deployed across all

global trade lanes – there

will eventually be a

tipping point and scale

economies will diminish

© Drewry 2013


Cascading pressure on ports

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

No.wkly

svces

Avg

nominal

No.wkly

svces

Avg

nominal

No.wkly

svces

Avg

nominal

No.wkly

svces

Avg

nominal

Asia-N Europe 24 8,705 28 8,818 29 9,552 24 9,844

Asia-Med 16 6,102 21 6,199 18 6,848 16 7,999

Asia-USWC 37 5,948 46 6,021 40 6,380 42 7,018

Asia-ECSA 6 4,198 8 4,385 9 5,074 8 5,383

Europe-ECSA 9 4,466 9 4,465 10 4,476 6 6,132

Asia-WCSA 6 3,153 9 3,754 11 5,100 7 7,350

Asia-Mid-East 17 4,997 18 4,532 20 4,859 15 6,145

Ave nominal teu of

ships in Asia-N Europe

trade will reach 11,200

teu by end 2013.

Approx 40 x 8,000 teu

ships will be cascaded

this year.

Where will they go?

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

Asia-N Europe

Asia-Med

Europe-ECSA

Asia-WCSA

Asia-Mid-East

© Drewry 2013


Regional variations in outlook

Capacity expansion

Demand growth less

than capacity expansion

South Europe, South Asia

Demand growth =

capacity expansion

North Europe, Middle East, Africa

Demand growth more

than capacity expansion

North America, Far East, South

East Asia, Latin America,

Australasia, Eastern Europe

© Drewry 2013


Agenda




© Drewry 2013



Recession and austerity

Low demand for exports

No cash for imports

Container market just recovering

BUT

The region will recover

The crisis hit hard

.... very hard

© Drewry 2013


Black sea container market, 2012 (including t/s)


Ukraine 29%

Romania 26%

Russia 25%

Georgia 14%

Bulgaria 6%

Total

container

throughput

2.6 million teu

Key issues:

Economic dynamics

Liner network development

Turkey container ports:

7.3 million teu

Fewer direct services but

visible growth in

the average vessel size

© Drewry 2013


Economic recovery (real GDP in national currency)

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Georgia

Turkey

Azerbaijan

Russia

Ukraine

Bulgaria Romania

Source: IMF (GEO October 2012)

2008

=

100%

© Drewry 2013


Black sea region – post 2008 not all recovered

Georgia

Russia (Black Sea)

Bulgaria

Romania (excl. t/s)

Ukraine

Ukraine – the largest market suffered

most and is far from pre-crisis levels

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Total

2008

=

100%

© Drewry 2013


Ownership of major container terminals

Constantza

Odessa

Novorossiysk

Poti

Batumi

Georgia

APMT

ICTSI

Russia Romania

Ukraine

DPW

HHLA

CMA CGM

NCSP

NUTEP Black

Sea

Operational

Confirmed future investment

Unconfirmed future investment


Taman

NCC

© Drewry 2013


Container terminal operators, 2012

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

To

tal th

rou

gh

pu

t (t

ho

usan

d t

eu

)

+12%

+59% +61%

© Drewry 2013


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Forecast container demand growth 2012-2017 (average growth p.a.)

© Drewry 2013


Agenda




© Drewry 2013


Total port handling, 2012

Russia 42%

Ukraine 34%

Romania 12%

Bulgaria 6%

Georgia 6%

Moldova 0%

Total cargo

traffic

422 million

tonnes in

2012

Source: Port Authorities, Association of Russian Seaports, Drewry Research

Turkey ports total

traffic 380 million

tonnes

Key issues:

Global demand for

raw materials

Agricultural output

Inland transport

competitiveness

© Drewry 2013


Largest Black Sea ports Total traffic

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

To

tal th

rou

gh

pu

t (m

illio

n t

on

nes)

+28%

+10%

© Drewry 2013


Bulk cargo: key regional themes Selected Black Sea traffics, growth in 2012 over 2011

Source: Port Authorities, PG-online, Drewry Research

105 mt

22 mt

31 mt +56%

+24%

-2%

8 mt +5%

12 mt

49 mt -2%

+7%

Crude Oil

Grain

Ores, steel and metals

Coal and coke traffic

Overall, despite global markets for

these commodities, bilateral trade

between the region’s countries is the

key traffic driver.

On return flows – construction

materials and equipment from Turkey

to Russia, Ukraine and Caucasus

dominate.

Increasingly regional market

14 mt -14%

13 mt +32%

11 mt +19% 5 mt -1%

3.5 mt +11%

© Drewry 2013


Investing in ports

Port business fundamentals remain strong and attractive

Trading at more realistic price

Looking for quality

© Drewry 2013


Thank you!

Maritime research and publications

Bespoke consultancy

Investment advisory

Maritime Equity research

World Container Index

Our services include:

Providing maritime intelligence for over 40 years

Unique expertise of shipping industry senior executives and knowledge base

© Drewry 2012

23 Drewry | The Independent Maritime Advisor

Why Drewry Shipping Consultants? Drewry was established in 1970 and has built an unrivalled knowledge base

of the shipping industry

We are a leading global maritime research, publications and consultancy

firm with a strong reputation among shipowners, financial organisations and

other maritime industry stakeholders

We monitor and research continuously global shipping markets, publishing

authoritative analysis on a wide range of industry issues including demand

and capacity development and dynamics of freight rates

Our consultancy team contains senior executives who have wealth of hands-

own personal experience of all aspects of shipping its operations and finance

We have performed a variety of assignments for medium and large financial

institutions advising buy or sale side, performing market due diligence

and business plan validation tasks

© Drewry 2012


Our company

Since being established in 1970 Drewry has built an expertise and knowledge that is

unique within the maritime industry. With offices in London, Singapore, India and Shanghai

we offer a global perspective for clients.

We have worked with over 4,000 clients in more than 100 countries.

Our organisational structure means our expertise is always at the forefront of the maritime

industry. Each of our core businesses is constantly monitoring and analysing market

dynamics, providing key information for our ‘Drewry Knowledge Hub’. With cross sharing of

analysis throughout the business, our teams have the platform to launch a project that is

underpinned by extensive research.

Drewry is an internationally based research and consultancy firm providing

specialist services for the maritime industry

© Drewry 2012


Sector based experience

Over the years, Drewry has become a trusted adviser to CEOs and other senior

management of fleets, service and logistics companies and port authorities across the

world

Our team combines the necessary experience, knowledge and practical

understanding of maritime industry, its operations and financing

Expertise

Market

Commercial Supply

Chain

Benchmar-

king

Shipbuil-

ding and

repair

Due

diligence

Market

analysis

Oil tanker market

Dry bulk

Gas (LPG/LNG)

Chemical

Offshore

Container

Cruise/passenger/RoRo

Ports and terminals

© Drewry 2012


Drewry advisory services We have built a solid contact network, working with various participants in the

shipping market and financial institutions

Investment banks

Commercial banks

Private equity

Venture capitalists

Hedge funds

Private investors

Overview of our client base:

Logistics providers

Port operators

Manufacturers

Lawyers

National

governments

Industry and trade

institutions

Mining companies

Power and energy

companies

Commodity traders

Steel companies

Shipping

companies

Shipyards

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