black sea basin eni cbc programme 2014-2020 eni cbc - support to the preparation of programmes (spp)...

Black Sea Basin ENI CBC Programme 2014-2020

ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP)

Implemented by AETS and ParticipFunded by

the European Union

3rd JPC meeting – 15 November 2013Kavala, Greece

Socio-economic analysis – key points

Presentation overview

Socio-economic analysis thematic focus:

◦Territory and demography

◦Economy

◦Education and employment, R&D, research

◦Environment, health, safety and security

◦Energy, transport and communication networks

◦Culture, civil society and self-government

Implemented by AETS and Particip

Funded by the European Union


Data sources

Updated BSB excel data requested from participating countries

Former BSB excel data collected in 2006 (in order to identify trends/changes)

Available international data and reports (World Bank, WHO…) on BSB countries

EU data to allow comparison with EU averages







Territory & Demography - Overview

Overall BSB population increased (+2 Mon) but great regional disparities due to different fertility rates and migration flows

Strong population increase in regions of TR, AZ/Decrease in regions in RO, AM, BG, UA

Different age structures: young population (TR, AZ)/ageing (GR, BG)

Negative migration flows for most countries (esp. MD, GE) except RU, GR, AZ

Migration within BSB region is strong

Disparate BSB territory: large rural areas, 3 capital cities, megacity of Istanbul

Urbanisation process in all the regions

Seasonal (summer) increase of coastal population

Territory & Demography

Strengths Weaknesses

Young population (TR, AZ) Ageing population (GR, BG + UA, RO, GE): health, pension-financing

Young population (TR, AZ): education, integration into labour market

Strong urbanisation process (environmental, socio-economic challenges)







Territory & Demography

Opportunities Threats

Migration flows: potential for development of scientific, business and other types of networks with migrants from BSB region

Labour emigration towards better economic opportunities outside BSB region




Economy - Overview

Strong GDP average growth in most BSB countries (except GR) over 2006-2012 by far exceeds EU’s - esp. high AZ, MD, GE, AM

Growth based on FDI inflows, credit growth, increased domestic demand, investment, exports to EU

Short but severe recession following 2008 crisis for all BSB but AZ, in 2012 all seem on recovery path except GR (GE, AM >6% growth)

EU is main economic partner for BSB countries (trade, FDI)

FDI decreased after crisis (only GE, AZ, AM still >5% GDP)

Large flows of remittances (represent 23% GDP MD, 20% GDP AM)

Decline of agric. sector and rapid growth of services sector, still overall BSB larger shares of agric. and industr. sectors than the EU

SMEs 99% of all enterprises (but often low value added)

On average good international trade openness, but large discrepancies: BG, MD UA most integrated, RU, RO the least

Economy

Strengths WeaknessesConducive macro-economic envt. (GDP growth, low inflation) (except GR)

Strong regional disparities in growth rates and wealth

Improved competitiveness in most BSB countries

Corruption, lack of financing, administrative burden (esp. SMEs)

Improved business envt. in GE, AM Worse business envt in RO, RU, BG, UA

Reduced GDP per capita disparities within BSB and compared to EU average

GDP per capita still 4 times lower the EU average

Diverse economic structures in BSB (possible complementarity, incl. services)

Lack of diversification within national economies, still low value added sectors

Strong intra-regional trade growth (incl. agric. products)

Large discrepancies for integration in international trade and trade balance

Strong tourism sector and remaining potential

Low capacity for innovation, limited high technology exports

Potential for aquaculture Organic farming little developed







Economy


Remittances from BSB emigrants offset trade of balance deficit and can play a role in regional eco. devt.

EU recession/difficulties since 2008 crisis limits strong recovery in BSB

Increase in international tourists to BSB (esp. GE)

FDI: BSB region still suffers from broader risk aversion following the crisis

Tourism fast-growing econ. sector worldwide

High growth rates in organic agric. worldwide




Education, Employment, R&D, Research – Overview

High and increasing levels of education

Lack of skills remains a problem for enterprises (esp. UA, MD)

Disparities in employment distribution: mostly agric. for GE, AM, mostly services for all others

Wages considerably increased (x3 in AZ, GE, x4 in BG), except Greece decreased

Different unemployment challenges (AZ, MD, RO, some UA and TR regions low unemployment)

Rich scientific potential but difficulties in fostering research and innovation, and in keeping up with technological progress

Education, Employment, R&D, Research

Strengths WeaknessesHigh level of education of BSB worforce overall Regional disparities of levels of education

Gap in average wages among BSB regions has considerably reduced

Wage and salary earners only represent 40% of all workers in GE and AZ (majority is self-employed, in low-productive agric. or small-scale informal activities)

Large numbers of universities and research centers

Education systems need to adapt their training to match changing needs of the economy

Collaborative work on marine environment notably involves 43 research centres and universities in BSB countries

AM, GE, both GR regions and the BG region of Zeveroiztochen have high unemployment rates > 15%

Youth unemployment acute issue for all regions, reaching 24% on average

Female unemployment higher in AM,AZ, GR and most TR regions

Low R&D expenditures







Education, Employment, R&D, Research


Emigration reduces pressure on unemployment

Brain drain from BSB countries and brain/skill waste (when highly educated migrants work in low-skill jobs)

Research and networking in science and technology: variety of European and Black Sea initiatives and organisations (especially in maritime, environmental, energy and transport areas)




Environment, Health, Safety & Security – Overview

Black Sea ecosystem vulnerable, affected by agricultural, urban and industrial discharges as well as oil pollution (in particular along major shipping routes) and invasive species

Pollution in BSB is sometimes an issue for drinking water

The need to promote sustainable energy development remains

Great inequalities in life expectancy at regional level, ranging from 64.4 years in Donetsk oblast (Ukraine) to 78.2 in Greece for men, and for women from 75 years in Moldova and Odeska oblast (Ukraine) to 82.9 years in Greece

Environment, Health, Safety & Security

Strengths (1) Weaknesses (1)Black Sea ecosystem known to be rich and diverse; 4 UNESCO biosphere reserves

Small terrestrial and marine protected areas. Lack of effective management plans & infrastructure for nature reserves

Large cities outside the coastal zone mostly have full and sufficiently efficient biological treatment of wastewater

Wastewater treatment often not sufficient in rural areas and coastal cities (overloaded in summer)

BSB region generally well provided with freshwater resources

Access to safe drinking water sometimes problematic (esp. rural areas). Usage of groundwater for drinking purposes is not possible everywhere

Hydropower is the most widespread source of renewable energy (strong in GE)

Black Sea low renewal rate and very prone to eutrophication

Renewables sources other than hydropower increased over the last few years

Significant pressure from land-based pollution (large catchment area, garbage accumulated on some beaches)

Exploitation of renewables sources other than hydropower still in its early stages





Strengths (2) Weaknesses (2)Life expectancy has increased more quickly in BSB than in the EU

BSB people live on average 7 years less than in the EU; great regional disparities

Tuberculosis prevalence and mortality rates both decreased over the last few years

Mortality, particularly from diseases of the circulatory system and cancer remains high (various preventable factors)

External causes of death (injury): high disparities at country level

High HIV rates in UA and MD

Health systems face serious challenges dealing with large poverty and social exclusionHigh (though decreasing) infant mortality rate; High and in some countries increasing female maternal mortality

Gender inequalities reflected in reproductive health and parliamentary representation

Persistent conflicts and bilateral disputes between some BSB countries








Opportunities ThreatsNutrient pollution from Danube likely to continue to decrease due to the implement. of EU environmental policy

Don and Dnipro may continue to carry heavy nutrient loadings into Black Sea northwestern part and Azov Sea

Massive growth in wind power seen globally

Oil pollution enters the sea as a result of operational discharges by vessels and due to accidents

BSEC promotion of Green Energy investments

Transport of oil and gas across the Black Sea is a major activity

Pollution of rivers has led to sharp decline in access to safe drinking water resources

Emigration affects notably doctors and skilled medical workforce in MD and BG

Human trafficking




Energy, Transport & Communication Networks – Overview

Transport of oil and gas across the Black Sea is a major activity, mainly via tankers but also via a network of pipelines (expected to expand)

Economic development in BSB countries, in particular rising foreign trade, gave a great push to the organization and development of a regional Black Sea transport system

Even for Black Sea Basin land-locked countries, maritime transport provides access to the Mediterranean Sea and to ocean transport shipping routes i.e. for intercontinental trade links

The Trans-Black Sea inter-modal transport network is also gaining more importance with sea ports playing an essential role in connecting land transport lines with maritime lines

Internet has now become a widespread tool in BSB

Energy, Transport & Communication Networks


Total cargo turnover for the ports of BG, GE, RU, RO and UA between 2000 and 2007 increased more than twice; Around50,000 ships sail through the Bosporus every year including at least 10,000 oil tanker

Challenging issues and requirements concerning maritime infrastructure, fleet renewal, quality of the services in the seaport, market access to the port services, adjustment to the international environmental standards and improvement of regulations and legislation related to the sea ports

Overall quality of ports infrastructure around the Black Sea good in GR, TR, GE

Quality of ports infrastructure around the Black Sea assessed as rather poor overall in MD and RO. EU has only one major port for oil (Constanta)

Both mobile and internet access increased by > 200% since 2005 in all BSB countries

Internet use overall still lagging behind EU average

The digital gap that existed among BSB countries has considerably narrowed







Energy, Transport & Communication Networks


The ports of the Black Sea region serve commodity turnover between the Asian-Pacific region and Europe

Motorways of the Sea (MoS) have been identified for transnational multimodal axis including the BSB region, as an extension of the Trans-European Transport Networks (TEN-T) to EU Neighbouring countries

Calls for a more efficient EU energy policy towards the Black Sea




Culture, Civil Society & Self-Government – Overview

BSB has a rich and diverse cultural heritage that needs to be preserved

Growing civil society influence

Developing BSB inter-regional cooperation at the levels of local/regional authorities and NGOs

Culture, Civil Society & Self-Government


BSB rich cultural heritage and strong cultural assets in architecture, archeology, arts, music, literature, theatre and cinematography

NGOs often remain poorly anchored in society, with low membership and volunteering levels

Outstanding universal value recognised by UNESCO for 18 cultural places in BSB area (historical cities, religious architecture and archeological sites)

NGOs often remain organization-centered rather than joining forces in coalitions and networks around issues

Wealth of cultural variety, with numerous traditional craftmanship and other intangible cultural assets listed as heritage of humanity

Black Sea Euroregion still gathers limited membership

NGOs number increased; Civil society and civic movements, mostly informal, have been particularly active (GE, UA, MD)

Black Sea Forum for Dialogue and Partnership affected by regional tensions

Creation of Black Sea Euroregion (2008)

Black Sea NGO forum meets regularly







Culture, Civil Society & Self-Government

Opportunities ThreatsCoE Congress of the Local and Regional Authorities, Assembly of European Regions (AER), as well as more recently EU Committee of the Regions Conference of the Regional and Local Authorities for the Eastern Partnership (CORLEAP) provide platforms for dialogue and cooperation

Black Sea Basin ENI CBC Programme 2014-2020


Implemented by AETS and ParticipFunded by

the European Union

3rd JPC meeting – 15 November 2013Kavala, Greece

SWOT Analysis & Proposed Thematic Objectives

Support for Thematic Objectives

SWOT analysis:

◦ Number of elements

◦ Categories covered

Questionnaire country representatives

◦ Measures 2007-2013 programme

◦ Expected overarching ENI-CBC objectives

◦ Cross-cutting issues

◦ Additional fields

Mapping awarded projects first two calls




Support for TO1Implemented by AETS and Particip



Concluding: Proposed TOs

TO4 (Promotion of social inclusion and fight against poverty)◦ Development and/or access to social services

◦ Integration of immigrants and vulnerable groups

TO6 (Environmental protection, climate change adaptation and disasters)◦ Environmental protection

◦ Energy efficiency

◦ Sustainable waste / waste water management

TO7 (Accessibility to the regions, development of transport and communication networks and systems)◦ Transport services (and small scale infrastructure)

◦ ICT infrastructure




Possible alternative TOs

TO1 (Business and SME development)

◦ Specific sectors (tourism, agriculture); Entrepreneurship

TO2 (Education, research, technology and innovation)

◦ Promotion of and support to research and innovation; Life-long learning

TO3 (Local culture, historical heritage)

◦ Promoting local culture and history

TO5 (Support to local & regional good governance)

◦ Capacity of local & regional authorities and communities; regional integration

TO8 (Common challenges in safety and security)

◦ Development of and access to health services




black sea basin eni cbc programme 2014-2020 eni cbc - support to the preparation of programmes (spp)...

Documents

bsb increase

bsb countries trade

bsb emigrants

bsb countries eu data

bsb countries corruption

growth eu

strong disparate bsb

gdp growth