black rain rumor 20130627

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presented at IAMCR2013, Dublin, on 2013/6/27

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  • 1. Evolution of Spreading Rumors in Social Media: And Its Implication to Social Risk Communication June 27, 2013 IAMCR2013 Hiroshi YAMAGUCHI Komazawa University

2. Explosion at Cosmo Oil LPG tanks exploded after the 3.11 Earthquake No official info provided due to confusion Rumor on black rain emerged 2 Cosmo Tokyo Bay Tokyo Chiba City Ichihara City 3. Twitter Data Great East Japan Earthquake Big Data Workshop Project 3.11 Obtained tweet data during the period Extracted 187,202 tweets quoting Cosmo Manually identified the rumor tweets Sorted as 4 Chains of rumor 3 4. Cosmo Tweets 4 5. Seed Tweet (7 RTs) First chain of rumor Implied the solution is toxic Instructed specific actions Not so much diffused 5 2011-03-11 18:00:26 Aqueous solution is floating in the air due to the fire at the Cosmo Refinery in Ichihara. Do not touch the rain. Put on a flu mask. Shinkansen express trains will not run today. 6. Original Tweet (1,700 RTs) Added a message to raise awareness Referred to rain Area expanded to Chiba Instructed more specific actions 6 2011-03-11 18:43:40 [plz RT] [plz RT] Beware! Poisonous substance by the explosion at Cosmo Oil Refinery contaminates clouds, and falls with the rain. Those who live near Chiba City should bring your umbrella or oilcoat when you go out. Do not touch the rain!!! 7. Quoting Tweet (18,600 RTs) 7 2011-03-11 20:46:55 RT @XXXXX: [from mixi] Those who live near Chiba City! Poisonous substance by the explosion at Cosmo Oil Refinery contaminates clouds, and falls with the rain. Bring your umbrella or oilcoat when you go out. Do not touch the rain!!! Plz let people know!! Quoting previous rumor and added comments Referring to mixi, the source of info Added a message to expand the rumor 8. Modified Tweet (17,200 RTs) Modified to show the source of information to add credibility Area further expanded to Tokyo 8 2011-03-12 14:57:19 Personnel at Cosmo Oil notified my acquaintance. For those who live in Chiba and other part of Tokyo metropolitan area: the rain contaminated with some chemical substance due to the explosion at Cosmo may fall. It is really dangerous. Plz use umbrella or oilcoat! 9. Evolution of the Rumor 9 4 Chains of Rumor Seed Tweet Original Tweet Quoting Tweet Modified Tweet 10. They knew it might not be true People share rumors not because they believe to feel ease To recover control on situation To contribute to community 10 2011-03-11 21:51:59 Not sure if it's true or not, but for prevention: Poisonous substance by the explosion at Cosmo Oil Refinery contaminates clouds, and falls with the rain. Those who live near Chiba City should bring your umbrella or oilcoat when you go out. Do not touch the rain. 11. Vaccines take time . . . 11 Info from trustworthy source did not reach people in the midst of diffusion NHK news reports 12. Lessons Learned Let them go and wait Do not try to suppress or eliminate Faster than mass media Let other users do Diffusion of rumors depends on architecture Power of open networks May need assistance for users of closed networks 12 13. Rumor and Action to be Taken Trust related to the action Trust in info Trust in source Cost of action Tweet instructing immediate evacuation from National Diet member was retweetd 700 times 13 011-03-11 17:20:13 Those who live nearby should evacuate immediately RT @XXXXX : @XXXXX A big explosion at Cosmo Oil at Ichihara, Chiba prefecture. Flame is turned up! http://twitpic.com/48e em8 14. Activity-Based Trust Formation Hierarchy of effect model for social media era Information sharing to develop conviction Necessary level of conviction relies on the cost of action 14 Attention Interest Sharing Conviction Action 15. Cost of Actions Affect Trust? 15 Survey on 580 twitter users Asked how they evaluate info/how they act based on different sources of info High cost action require high trustworthiness 16. Conclusion Analysis of a rumor in twitter revealed a pattern like evolution of life Info flow in social media is faster than that from mass media Potential of social risk communication Activity-Based Trust Formation Model needs further research 16