Bizarre  Economic Indexes Economists  have  been  way  off  with  their  forecasts  during    the  last  few  years.    Making  sense  of  the  latest  economic    indicators  has  become  less  science  and  more  gut.  

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[ Super Bowl Indicator ] A Super Bowl win for a team from the old AFL (AFC division) foretells a decline in the stock market for the coming year. A win for a team from the old NFL (NFC division) means the stock market will be up for the year.

Concept

Proof The accuracy rate of this index !since its inception in 1967.!

80%

The S&P 500 average gain for the three years (’67, ‘96, ’10) that the Green Bay Packers have won the Super Bowl. !

15.82% [An old NFL (NFC division) team]

[ The Aspirin Indicator ]

Sales of aspirin and other headache !medications are expected to increase !as the economy heads toward rough !times, and more people feel the stress. !

Concept

Proof

The % that Advil sales went up in 2008 at the height of economic uncertainty.!

2%

[ Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue Indicator ]

An American model !appearing on the cover !suggests that the S&P !500 will generate a return !above its historical average, !while a non-American leads !to under-performance. !

Concept

Proof

2011 Irina Shayk

Russian-born

2010 Brooklyn Decker American-born

S&P 500

0.00% change 13%

[ Cardboard Box Indicator ]

A sharp decline in the usage of cardboard means a recession is !on the horizon, while an increase indicates expansion.!

Concept

Proof

Much of the world's goods are shipped in cardboard containers. When cardboard box sales increase, it means companies are shipping a greater number of goods to sell, and therefore employing more people. Smurfit Kappa, Europe’s largest producer of cardboard boxes, saw results fall by $269.9 million in 2008 from a year earlier, as operating profits declined 50%.!

[ Coupon Redemption Index ]

When the economy slips, consumers turn to coupons !to cut costs on things like detergent, toothpaste, and groceries.!

Concept

Proof Rise in coupon use during the !second quarter of 2011.!

2%

Number of coupons redeemed in 2009 as!consumers looked to save more at the market.! 3.3 Billion

Two indicators: First, men will buy ties to appear that they're working harder during difficult economic times. Second, ties get slimmer during bad times and brighter when the economy starts to recover.!

Concept

Proof

In the U.K., with news that layoffs could be coming in 2007, sales of ties spiked as men tried to show employers that they came to do work. Width of the ties narrowed due to austerity measures during past wars. Current production abilities seemed to have put that indicator on hold. But anyone who has spent time in lower Manhattan will tell you that skinny ties are back.!

[ Skinny Tie Indicator ]

The intensity of Marine Corps ads evolve with !hiring trends. During tough times, civilians who !can't get work are more likely to enlist. But if too !many people sign up, the Marines toughen up their videos to scare off potential recruits. !

Concept

[ Marine Advertisement Intensity Index ]

Proof

Past commercials displayed a young !recruit rock climbing sans gear – !illustrating the army as exercise and a !fun new adventure. Recent commercials !depict war – highlighting the commitment !and danger of joining the marine corps. !

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