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BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

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Page 1: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

BIOMASS FUTURES:Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations

Brussels, 26 November 2010

Page 2: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

Contents • Objectives & main steps• Results: different supplies• Costs• Supply-demand• Further steps

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Page 3: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

Biomass categories included

• Biomass from agriculture– Dedicated cropping– Primary residues (straw, prunnings, manure)

• Biomass from forestry– Round wood production– Additionally harvested wood– Primary forestry residues– Secondary forestry residues

• Biomass from waste– Waste biomass– Primary, secondary, tertiary residues

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Page 4: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

Steps • Mapping (present) technical potential• Add cost information and derive cost-supply

relations• Add sustainability criteria and map the

environmentally constrained potential• Use potentials as a basis for further scenario-

modelling studies estimating future biomass supply-demand and related environmental impacts

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Page 5: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

Examples of mapped technical potentials

• Agricultural by-products• Dedicated cropping

Page 6: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

Manure

Factors determining potential:• Type and animal numbers (LSU/ha)• Manure surplus (in Nitrate Vulnerable areas

max 170 kgN/ha)• Source: Eurostat FSS, NVZ maps, own

elaborations

Page 7: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

Manure available (2005)

EU-Total: 1726 KTOE (1.4% of total potential)

EU-Total: 2724 KTOE (2.3% of total potential)

Page 8: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

Pruning material available (2005)

Page 9: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

Total pruning material (2005)

Total: 11424 KTOE

9% of the total present potential

Page 10: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

Straw

• JRC approach• Sources of straw: all cereals, maize (straw of

corn), rapeseed, sunflower• Sustainably harvested potential• Minus competing uses (animal bedding,

mushroom production)

Page 11: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

Straw

EU-total: 27948 KTOE 23% of total potential

EU-total: 47960 KTOE Based on CAPRI baseline scenario 2020

Page 12: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

Factors determining waste potential

• Number of inhabitants• Welfare level• Industrial development• Present collection activities

• Source of data: Eurostat waste statistics (year 2008). Bias towards countries with good collection and registration systems!

Page 13: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

Wastes

Page 14: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

Summary waste

Waste categoriesPotential

KTOE% of total potential

Present recovery

rate

Wood waste 32310.9 27

Very high in most

countries

Animal waste from food industry 2762.8 2

High in some countries

Organic waste from households and industry 25656.0 21

High in some countries

Paper cardboard 50413.4 42

Very high in most

countries

Common sludges 3699 3 Low

Page 15: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

Present recovery of which some going to bioenergy

Page 16: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

Verge grass

Total potential: 1856 KTOE

2% of total potential

Page 17: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

Dedicated cropping 2008 

Maize 2008

OSR 2008

Sugarbeet 2008

Sunflower 2008 Cereals

Perennials 2008 Total

AT 53.0 11.5 0.0 6.0 2.0 0.0 72.6

BG 0.0 0.0 0.0 243.5 0.0 0.0 243.5

BE 1.2 2.4 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.0 7.3

CZ 0.0 122.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 122.0

DE 399.5 1800.9 2.4 0.0 253.5 3.6 2459.8

DK 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 170.5 8.5 179.0

GR 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 0.0 0.0 9.3

ES 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.9 28.0 0.1 96.9

FI 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 79.2 80.3

FR 53.9 1378.1 52.4 68.2 622.6 14.9 2190.1

HU 0.0 11.8 0.0 12.8 0.0 0.0 24.5

IE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9 6.9

IT 0.0 5.3 0.0 54.0 0.0 73.6 132.9

NL 1.2 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7

PL 0.0 1477.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 117.6 1594.6

PT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

RO 0.0 13.8 0.0 493.3 0.0 0.0 507.0

SE 0.0 61.5 0.0 0.0 55.2 45.0 161.7

UK 0.0 427.2 0.0 0.0 32.9 21.7 481.8

Total 508.8 5318.6 54.8 955.8 1168.8 371.1 8378.1

% potential 0.4% 4.4% 0% 0.8% 1% 0.3% 6.9%

Page 18: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

Future dedicated cropping with perennials

• Based on land availability and cropping mix as predicted by CAPRI in baseline scenario

• 3 options:– High support for cropping, competes with arable crops on

good-medium productive arable lands– Some cropping support, is economic on fallow and former

olives and vineyards i.e. the lower productive lands– Some support for establishment and bringing back into

production of abandoned land in areas with large abandoned land resource

Page 19: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

On good-medium productive arable lands

• Assumption of 5% of 2020 good-medium quality land

• High yield per hectare• Very large indirect land

effects• Southern Europe large

pressure on scarce water resources

• Largest potential

Page 20: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

On low productive arable lands

• Assumption of 10% of 2020 fallow, olive and vineyards

• Medium-Low yield per hectare

• Limited indirect land effects

• Large adverse effects on biodiversity

• Lowest potential of 3 options

Page 21: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

On former abandoned lands

• Estimate was that in involved regions abandoned land share was 5%-10% of UAA. Of this 5% was used for dedicated biomass cropping

• Low yield per hectare• No indirect land effects• Some negative effects on

biodiversity• What is effect on soil-C?

Page 22: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

Main observations regarding supplies

– Largest supply in industrial and municipal waste, however many alternative uses

– Most by-products still under-utilised– Present dedicated cropping potential

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Page 23: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

Elasticity price FR

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500

Cost-supply France

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FRANCE

price (Euro/KTOE

) Kton priceCum. Kton

animal waste -42 1594 -42 1594

Organic waste Industry+HH -42 4885 -42 6478

common sludges -42 1326 -42 7805

wet manure 0 17138 0 24943

Verge grass 21 719 21 25662

paper cardboard 21 10993 21 36655

wood-waste 39 8610 39 45265

OSR 2008 50 2634 50 47899

Sunflower 2008 50 130 50 48029

straw_2020 75 22269 75 70298

dry manure 84 224 84 70522

straw_2004 100 8920 100 79441

prunings 123 2911 123 82352

Perennials 2008 130 31 130 82384

Maize 2008 214 351 214 82735

Cereals 411 1936 411 84671

Sugarbeet 2008 415.9 1150.2 416 85821

Page 24: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

Cost-supply Netherlands

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Elasticity price NL

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

-100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

NETHERLANDSprice

(Euro/KTOE) Kton priceCum. Kton

animal waste -42 507 -42 507

Organic waste from

industry+HH -42 10253 -42 10760

common sludges -42 669 -42 11429

dry manure -21 404 -21 11833

wet manure 0 24834 0 36667

verge grass 21 136 21 36804

paper cardboard 21 3632 21 40435

wood-waste 27 2113 27 42548

OSR 2008 50 12 50 42561

prunings 126 40 126 42601

straw_2004 130 99 130 42700

straw_2020 136 136 136 42836

Maize 2008 300 8 300 42844

Sugarbeet 2008   0   42844

Sunflower 2008   0   42844

Cereals   0   42844

Perennials 2008   0   42844

Page 25: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

Cost-supply Germany

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Germany

price (Euro/KTOE

) Kton priceCummulative Kton

animal waste -42 333 -42 333

bmw -42 10792 -42 11126

common sludges -42 529 -42 11655

dry manure 0 88 0 11743

wet manure 0 13785 0 25528

bermgras 21 675 21 26202

paper cardboard 21 22602 21 48804

OSR 2008 50 3442 50 52246

wood-waste 64 9473 64 61719

straw_2004 93 13142 93 74861

straw_2020 98 15559 98 90420

prunings 110 417 110 90836

Perennials 2008 148 8 148 90844

Maize 2008 218 2601 218 93444

Cereals 416 788 416 94233

Sugarbeet 2008 562.4157549 52.689 562 94285

Sunflower 2008   0   94285

Elasticity price DE

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Page 26: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

Elasticity price PL

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Cost-supply Poland

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POLAND

price (Euro/KTOE

) Kton priceCummulative Kton

animal waste -42 2138 -42 2138

bmw -42 20103 -42 22241

common sludges -42 571 -42 22812

dry manure 0 2 0 22814

wet manure 0 363 0 23177

wood-waste 18 5319 18 28496

paper cardboard 21 9407 21 37903

bermgras 21 206 21 38109

prunings 47 668 47 38777

OSR 2008 50 2823 50 41600

straw_2020 100 8719 100 50319

straw_2004 105 4830 105 55150

Perennials 2008 148 248 148 55397

Maize 2008   0   55397

Sugarbeet 2008   0   55397

Sunflower 2008   0   55397

Cereals   0   55397

Page 27: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

Total cost-supply EU 2008

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Elasticity of biomass price in EU27

0

200000

400000

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500

Price (€/KTOE)

Cu

mu

lati

ve

am

ou

nt

of

bio

ma

ss

(k

ton

/ye

ar)

-Very large potential at very low price:

1)>50% Industrial + household wastes, but now mostly NOT used at all or not for bioenergy generation

2) By-products agriculture (straw, prunings)

Page 28: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

Conclusions

• Largest cheap potential in waste. Improved organisation of collection, treatment, logistics will improve access to this resource

• By-products from agriculture also have important potential, now still under-utilised.

• Forestry potential should be included. Will certainly add importantly.

Page 29: BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

Future work – Draft results need further critical review and improvements

– Scenario application to extrapolate present potentials to future technical-economic and sustainable potential

– Forestry potential still to be included

– Cuttings/pruning from landscape elements, recreational and nature conservation areas should still be mapped. But difficult.

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