bioenergy scenarios that contribute to a sustainable energy future in the eu27

Correspondence to: Ayla Uslu, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands, Petten, the Netherlands. E-mail: [email protected]

164 © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Modeling and Analysis

Bioenergy scenarios that contribute to a sustainable energy future in the EU27Ayla Uslu and Joost van Stralen, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands, Petten, the Netherlands Berien Elbersen, Alterra, Wageningen, the Netherlands Calliope Panoutsou, ICCEPT, Imperial College, London, UK Uwe Fritsche, IINAS, Darmstadt, Germany Hannes Böttcher, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

Received August 1, 2012; revised and accepted January 7, 2013 View online at Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com); DOI: 10.1002/bbb.1395; Biofuels, Bioprod. Bioref. 7:164–172 (2013)

Abstract: Three scenarios are developed to illustrate the likely impacts of sustainability criteria on bio-mass supply and demand within the Biomass Futures project. This paper presents the rationale behind these scenarios. The reference scenario re-analyzes the NREAP bioenergy demands based on the EU Renewable Energy Directive sustainability criteria targeted to biofuels for transport. It provides a refi ned basis for assessing sustainable bioenergy supply curves. As such, it is expected that this scenario pro-vides member states with direct input to update their National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) templates and to benchmark the available information with a coherent, harmonized approach of estimat-ing the biomass role in the different markets (heat, electricity, and transport) for each member state. The sustainability scenario, on the other hand, expands its coverage to electricity and heat production and applies the sustainability criteria to all bioenergy sectors. Additionally, it considers more stringent green-house gas (GHG) mitigation criteria for all bioenergy carriers (70%). A high biomass scenario focuses on stronger policy ambitions. The objective of this scenario is to analyze the role of biomass in view of the quite large amount of unutilized biomass potential in the EU, even when the sustainability criteria are included in analyzing the potential. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Keywords: bioenergy; scenario; biomass; biofuels

Introduction

Biomass is a key renewable energy source, represent-ing more than 65% of the total renewable energy consumption in Europe. Th e National Renewable

Energy Action Plans (NREAPs) suggest that, compared to

2010, the energy production from biomass will be 1.5 times higher in 2020.

One of the most important arguments for using bioen-ergy is that it can avoid greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. On the other hand, there is an ongoing debate concerning the environmental and socio-economic consequences of

© 2013 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Biofuels, Bioprod. Bioref. 7:164–172 (2013); DOI: 10.1002/bbb 165

Modeling and Analysis: Bioenergy scenarios that contribute to a sustainable energy future in the EU27 A Uslu et al.

biomass use for energy purposes. Th e Renewable Energy Directive (RED) includes sustainability criteria for biofuels to tackle these concerns. However, it remains questionable to what extent the NREAPs recognize the implications of sustainability criteria for supply and demand.

Bioenergy studies generally develop scenarios to esti-mate the global production potential of biomass for energy systems.1–4 Th ey include the impacts of scenarios of future land use and yield improvements for bioenergy and available land under diff erent sustainability assump-tions. However, they do not specifi cally focus on Europe. Moreover, none of them can account for the sustainability criteria laid down in the new RED.

Th e Biomass Futures project, funded by the Intelligent Energy Europe Programme of the European Commission, aimed at identifying the role that biomass can play to meet the 2020 renewable energy targets. Th e project defi ned the key factors that are likely to infl uence biomass supply, demand, and uptake over the next 20 years: the European heat, electricity-combined heat and power (CHP) and transport markets; supply and demand dynamics; and the eff ects of indirect land-use change (iLUC), water use, and social aspects on future biomass supply. In the framework of this project, it was deemed useful to analyze scenarios and sensitivity cases to address the question ‘how and to what extent biomass can contribute to a sustainable energy future without causing negative impacts’. Th e main objec-tives of the scenario formulation are the renewable energy and the GHG emission targets that the EU is committed to.

Th e purpose of this paper is to set the scene by describ-ing the scenarios defi ned in the Biomass Futures project. As such, the paper is limited to presenting scenario storylines and the methodology to run these scenarios. Detailed results and the conclusions are presented in the following papers in this issue.

• Assessing the eff ect of stricter sustainability criteria on EU biomass crop potential.5

• Th e role of biomass in the heat, electricity and trans-port markets in EU27 under diff erent scenarios.6

Scenario set-up

Th e Biomass Futures scenarios are designed according to two important aspects: sustainability concerns with regard to the production and use of biomass resources, and the policy ambitions of the member states. Figure 1 illustrates the scenarios developed to carry out the bioenergy mod-eling of the Biomass Futures project.

Sustainability dimension

Sustainability issues with regards to biofuels have been heavily debated for many years and the EU policy direc-tive has recognized the need to demonstrate the sustaina-bility of biomass for energy. Th e EU RED adopted in 2009 establishes sustainability criteria for biofuels for trans-port.7 Th e Commission also recommends that member

Figure 1. Illustration of the scenarios.

166 © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Biofuels, Bioprod. Bioref. 7:164–172 (2013); DOI: 10.1002/bbb

A Uslu et al. Modeling and Analysis: Bioenergy scenarios that contribute to a sustainable energy future in the EU27

states that either have or introduce national sustainability schemes for solid and gaseous biomass used in electricity and heating and cooling, should ensure that, in almost all respects, these schemes are the same as those laid down in the RED.

Th e biofuels must be sustainable in order to be counted toward the mandatory renewable energy targets and to be eligible for ‘fi nancial support’. Article 17 of the Directive defi nes two sets of sustainability criteria, which must be fulfi lled cumulatively: greenhouse gas (GHG) emission savings and land use requirements.

GHG emission savings

In comparison to the use of fossil fuels in the transport sec-tor, biofuels shall have a minimum GHG emission saving rate of 35%. However, there is a grace period for installa-tions that were in operation before January 23, 2008. From January 1, 2017, the GHG emission saving from the use of biofuels and bioliquids shall be at least 50% and from 1 January 2018 the threshold will increase to 60%, but only for installations that started operating in 2017 or later.

While the GHG emission calculation methodology includes all stages of biofuel production (extraction and cultivation of raw materials, land-use change, processing, and transport and distribution) the land-use requirements do not consider so-called iLUC eff ects. However, the European Commission is committed by the RED to review the potential impact of GHG emissions from iLUC and, if appropriate, to develop a methodology to address iLUC emissions.

Land-use requirements

According to Article 17 (3) of the Directive, biofuels shall not be made from raw material obtained from land with high biodiversity value, which includes primary forest and other wooded land, areas designated for nature protec-tion or the protection of rare, threatened or endangered ecosystems or species, and highly biodiverse grasslands. According to Article 17 (4), biofuels shall not be made from raw material obtained from land with high carbon stock, namely wetlands, continuously forested areas, or land spanning more than one hectare with a certain mini-mum canopy cover. Article 17 (5) states that biofuels shall not be made from raw material obtained from peatlands, unless evidence is provided that the cultivation and har-vesting of that raw material does not involve drainage of previously undrained soil. However, the implications of sustainability criteria for the supply of biomass and the associated costs are unknown.

EU member states’ policy ambitions

NREAPs indicate that by 2020 the production of energy from biomass sources will have increased by around 60% compared to 2010, and thus contribute to approximately 12% of the fi nal energy demand in 2020. Biomass elec-tricity is expected to double, while renewable heating and cooling from biomass sources is assumed to increase with approximately 60% compared to 2010 and to cater for 81% of the renewable heating and cooling by 20208. Table 1 presents the bioenergy targets set by the member states.

In their NREAPs, the member states also present how they plan to support energy production from biomass resources. Th e policy support measures consist of vary-ing combinations of feed-in tariff , feed-in premium, quota obligation, investment grants, tax incentives, and other fi scal incentives.

Scenarios

Reference scenario re-analysis of bioenergy contributions to national renewable energy targetsWhile the implications of sustainability criteria for bio-mass supply and the associated costs are unknown, there is a signifi cant demand for these resources driven by current policies. Th is scenario aims to re-analyze the contribution

Table 1. EU member states bioenergy targets (based on NREAPs).

Country AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK

Biomass electricity (GWh)

5 11 871 143 6 49 9

Biomass heat (ktoe) 4 2 1 30 3 11 3

Country EE EL ES FI FR HU IE


354 1 10 13 17 3 1


Country IT LT LU LV MT NL PL


19 1 334 1 136 17 14


Country PT RO SE SI SK UK EU27


4 3 17 676 2 26 232




of bioenergy in reaching the national renewable energy targets. In their NREAPs, member states illustrated the total contributions expected from bioenergy to electricity, heating and cooling, and transport up to 2020. However, it was uncertain to what degree they had incorporated the sustainability criteria for biofuels into their estimates. Th erefore, the objective of this scenario is to provide a refi ned basis for assessing sustainable bioenergy supply-based energy demand per member state. Table 2 presents the sustainability criteria considered in this scenario.

As this scenario looks at the current policy proc-ess, sustainability criteria are only applicable to bio-fuels for the transport sector. An important dilemma within the sustainability criteria is not tackled: the iLUC issue. Estimating the GHG impact due to indirect land use change is rather complex. It requires projecting of impacts into the future, which is inherently uncertain.9 A number of modelings have been conducted to estimate the iLUC.10–13 However, the diffi culties associated with the uncertainties in these studies made it very challenging for the policy makers to respond to the concerns regard-ing iLUC. Recently, the European Commission issued a proposal, which aims to limit the contribution that con-ventional biofuels (with a risk of ILUC emissions) make toward the targets in the RED. Th is Directive also aims to improve the GHG performance of biofuel production by increasing GHG saving threshold for new installations;

encourage a greater market penetration of advanced bio-fuels; and improve the reporting of GHG emissions.14 However, these aspects have not been included in the ref-erence scenario as the biomass Futures project scenario analysis was conducted in 2011.

Policy context

Th e European Commission requested member states to submit a report on the realized progress in the promotion and use of energy from renewable sources by December 31, 2011, and every two years thereaft er. Th is scenario is expected to be of immediate relevance to policy makers in assessing these reports and to member states providing direct input to update their NREAP templates. Moreover, the results can be used for benchmarking the available information with a coherent, harmonized approach of estimating the role of biomass in the diff erent markets (heat, electricity, and transport) for each member state.

Sustainability scenario

Th e reference scenario involves a risk of pushing the less sustainable and cheaper resources to the electricity and heat sector, leading to increased unsustainable biomass utilization. Th erefore, this storyline considers a more sus-tainable energy system in which binding biomass sustain-ability criteria cover all energy sectors (electricity, heating and cooling, and transport sectors) and biofuel imports.

Contrary to the reference scenario, this storyline fore-sees higher GHG mitigation targets, increasing to 80% by 2030. Furthermore, it presents a future in which the indirect land use change implications of the biofuels are to some degree compensated through crop-specifi c iLUC factors.

Crop-specifi c iLUC factors are derived from the EEA/ETC-SIA study15 and introduced in Table 3.11,15–24 Table 4 shows the sustainability criteria applied in this scenario.

Policy context

In its 2010 communication,9 the European Commission stated that EU-wide harmonized legislation on the sustain-ability of biomass for electricity and heat sector was unnec-essary at that time. However, this communication did include the recommendation that member states wishing to introduce a scheme at the national level should use the sustainability criteria that are in line with the binding cri-teria for biofuels for the transport sector. One of the main reasons behind this decision was that the binding criteria may impose substantial costs on the economic actors.

Table 2. Sustainability criteria applied to EU domestic biomass potential (REF).

2020 2030

GHG mitigation criteria

Applied only to bio-fuels and bioliquids consumed in the EU.

Biomass supply is calculated using a GHG mitigation of 50% as compared to fossil fuels.Compensation for iLUC related GHG emissions are excluded.

Applied only to bio-fuels and bioliquids consumed in EU.

Biomass supply is calculated using a GHG mitigation of 50% as compared to fossil fuels.Compensation for iLUC related GHG emissions are excluded

Other sustainabilityconstraints

Limitations on the use of biomass from biodiverse land or land with high carbon stock are applied to biofuels and bioliquids for transport.

Limitations on the use of biomass from biodiverse land or land with high carbon stock are applied to bio-fuels and bioliquids for transport.



Th e Commission stated that by December 31, 2011 it would report on whether national schemes have suf-fi ciently and appropriately addressed the sustainability related to the use of biomass from inside and outside the EU. However, there has been no such report so far. Based on this it will, inter alia, consider if additional measures such as common sustainability criteria at the EU level are appropriate or not.

However, the vast majority of the respondents (90%) to a stakeholder consultation on this topic indicated that a

sustainability scheme for biomass for electricity and heat-ing purposes is needed and that an exclusive limitation to sustainability criteria for transport purposes is not reasonable. Many stakeholders called for consistency with the biofuels for transport sustainability scheme to prevent adverse eff ects for biodiversity and the wider environment.

Th e European Commission is also expected to tackle another policy challenge, including iLUC eff ects of biofu-els, by means of an impact assessment study, followed by a legislative proposal.

Table 3. iLUC factors applied in this study. In the EEA/ETC-SIA-ACC study15 an inventory was made of the following studies:1. IFPRI study: ‘Global trade and environmental impact study of the EU biofuels mandate’16.2. ADEME study: Analyses de Cycle de Vie appliquées aux biocarburants de première generation consommés en France 17.3. E4tech study: ‘A causal descriptive approach to modelling the GHG emissions associated with the indirect land use impacts of

biofuels’18.4. PBL study: Identifying the indirect effects of bio-energy production19 anda. ‘The contribution of by-products to the sustainability of biofuels’20.b. ‘Indirect land-use change emissions related to biofuel consumption in the EU based on historical data’21.5. CARB study: Proposed Regulation to Implement the Low Carbon Fuel Standard Volume I. Staff Report: Initial Statement of Reasons22–23.6. JRC study: Indirect Land Use Change from increased biofuels demand11.7. Oeko-Institut: The ‘iLUC Factor’ as a means to hedge risks of GHG emissions from indirect land use change24.Emission factors derived from these studies and the median from these average values are presented below.

Type of biofuel Minimum iLUC emission factor (g CO2eq./MJ)

Maxim iLUC emission factor (g CO2eq./MJ)

Median from average values (g CO2eq./MJ)

Biodiesel based on rapeseed from Europe –33 80 80 800 77

Ethanol based on wheat from Europe –79 79 –8 329 73

Ethanol based on sugar beet from Europe 13 33 65 181 85

Biodiesel based on palm oil from South-East Asia –55 45 34 214 77

Biodiesel based on soy from Latin America 13 67 75 1380 140

Biodiesel based on soy from US 0 11 100 273 65

Ethanol based on sugar cane from Latin America –1 48 19 95 60

Bioelectricity based on perennial on arable land 32 32 75 75 56

Table 4. Sustainability criteria applied to EU domestic biomass potential (SUS).

2020 2030

GHG mitigation criteria • Applicable to all bioenergy consumed in EU.• Biofuel/bioliquids: 70% mitigation as compared

to fossil fuel (comparator EU average diesel and petrol emissions 2020).

• Bioelectricity and heat: 70% mitigation as com-pared to fossil energy (comparator country spe-cifi c depending on 2020 fossil mix).

• Includes compensation for iLUC related GHG emissions.

• Applicable to all bioenergy consumed in EU.• Biofuel/bioliquids: 80%mitigation as compared

to fossil fuel (comparator EU average diesel and petrol emissions 2030).

• Bioelectricity and heat: 80% mitigation as com-pared to fossil energy (comparator country spe-cifi c depending on 2030 fossil mix)

• Includes compensation for iLUC related GHG emissions

Other sustainabilityconstraints

• Applicable for all bioenergy consumed in EU.• Limitations on the use of biomass from biodiverse

land or land with high carbon stock.

• Applicable for all bioenergy consumed in EU.• Limitations on the use of biomass from biodi-

verse land or land with high carbon stock.



Taking all these aspects into consideration, the sustain-ability scenario is very relevant for the current policy proc-ess. Comparing the sustainability scenario to the refer-ence scenario will provide insight into the implications of expanding the criteria to the electricity and heat sector.

High biomass scenario

While the reference and sustainability scenarios aim to analyze the biomass role defi ned by the NREAPs, this sce-nario focuses on stronger policy ambitions. Th e objective of this scenario is to analyze the role of biomass in view of the quite large amount of unutilized biomass poten-tial in the EU. As a starting point, 25% higher targets for bioelectricity and heat (in comparison to NREAP fi gures) are set. As a next step it is assumed that the EU member states are willing to pay the required policy costs, as they will replace fossil-fuel-based conventional energy systems, improve their security of energy supply and at the same time combat climate change. Moreover, they will benefi t from increased employment opportunities.

Th is scenario builds on the bioenergy potentials of the reference scenario and applies national policy measures that are stronger than the current ones. Th us, the sustain-ability criteria in line with the current RED directive are only applied to biofuels for transport.

Methodology for analysis

Th e three scenarios introduced have been realized with ECN’s RESolve models. Th e RESolve models consist of sectoral models (renewable electricity (RESolve-E), heating and cooling (RESolve-H)) and a central biomass allocation model (RESolve-biomass, including biofuels). Th e biomass allocation model defi nes the least cost confi gurations of bioenergy pathways in the EU (electricity, heat and biofu-els), given potentials, technological progress and projections of demand, in this case the bioenergy targets set by the member states.

One of the most important features of the Biomass allo-cation model (RESolve-biomass) is the ability to link the national production chains while allowing for interna-tional trade. By allowing trade, the future cost of bioen-ergy can be approached in a much more realistic way than when each country is evaluated separately. Th e only costs associated with international trade are transport costs (including handling). For trade between two locations, generalized distances between countries are used.

While the biomass allocation model defi nes the least cost confi gurations for electricity, heat, and transport

sector, it is not capable of dealing with the complexities of the renewable electricity and heat markets. Th erefore this model is coupled with the sector models. Th e sector mod-els are the market simulation models, in which develop-ment of the EU renewable electricity and heating/cooling markets are explored for each year up to 2030. Details of the models and how they interact can be found in D5.1 Functional description of the RESolve model kit and the biomass allocation.6

A simplifi ed illustration of how the models interact is presented in Fig. 2.

Model input data and assumptions

To construct these scenarios, an extensive amount of data has been generated and included in the models.

• For the reference and the sustainability scenario, EU member states’ bioenergy demands for electricity, heat and biofuels are derived from NREAPs for 2020 and extended to 2030 by applying the PRIMES reference scenario 2020–2030 bioenergy increase. For the high biomass scenario, these fi gures (bioelectricity and heat for solid biomass) are increased with 25%.

• While the PRIMES reference scenario has been applied to defi ne the conventional fossil fuel mix as the refer-ence for the electricity sector, the required breakdown in fi nal end-user demand sectors for heating has been derived from the ODYSSEE database and extrapolated to NREAP heat demand.

• Policy instruments are updated in accordance with the latest available information and the NREAPs +Progress Report. While the policy measures are kept the same in the reference and the sustainability scenario, stronger policy initiatives are applied to the high biomass scenario.

• EU domestic feedstock cost-supply curves calculated, including the RED sustainability criteria and the RED+ criteria (the criteria are presented in Tables 3 and 4), are derived from D3.3 Atlas of EU Biomass Potential.15

• Biomass and biofuel import cost-supply data are derived from D3.4, Biomass availability and supply analysis.25 While the biomass and biofuel potentials for import have included the limitations on the use of biomass from biodiverse land or land with high carbon stock, the data did not include the GHG emission gaps foreseen in the sustainability scenario due to the tech-nical capabilities of the GLOBIOM model. Th erefore, the RESolve models included the iLUC emission fac-tors, and applied the GHG emission gaps through post processing. It is also assumed that 10% of the global import potential is from sustainable feedstocks.



• Life cycle GHG emission data for bioenergy pathways and the conventional energy systems are derived from the Global Emission Model for Integrated Systems (GEMIS) database.

• RESolve models included: ° Th e GHG emission gap of 35% that is increased to

50% from 2017 onwards. For the installations in which production started in or aft er 2017, the GHG emission gap of 60% is only applied to biofuels for the reference scenario.

° Th e GHG emission gap of 35% is increased to 60% from 2017 onwards. For the installations in which production started in or aft er 2017, the GHG emis-sion gap of 70% is applied for the sustainability scenario.

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Figure 2. Illustration of RESolve Model Set.



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Joost van Stralen

At the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands, Joost van Stralen’s work focuses on the development and ap-plication of techno-economic models concerning renewable energy. Joost obtained a PhD at the Department of Theoretical Chemistry at the Free Uni-versity of Amsterdam in 2004.

Ayla Uslu

Ayla joined ECN in 2009 and has been carrying out European projects on bioenergy since then. She studied environmental engineering in Turkey, and obtained an MSc in sustainable development-energy and resources from Utrecht University, in the Neth-erlands. From 2006 onwards Ayla

worked at the EEA, Copenhagen, as project manager renewable energy and environment.

Berien Elbersen

Berien Elbersen is geographer at Alter-ra, Wageningen UR. She worked on the environmentally compatible biomass potential from agriculture and coor-dinates the bioenergy task within the European Topic Centre Land Use (now ETC-SIA). In addition to her bioenergy projects she also worked on assessing

impacts of policy on agriculture and environment.



Calliope Panoutsou

Dr Calliope Panoutsou is a member of the Bioenergy Group within the Centre for Environmental Policy (Imperial Col-lege London) and the Vice-Chair for biomass supply within the European Biofuels Technology Platform (EBTP). Her work assignments focus on sup-ply, logistics & economic analyses of

biomass value chains, market & policy analyses and as-sessment of sustainability for bioenergy systems.

Uwe Fritsche

In 2012, Uwe Fritsche became Scien-tific Director of IINAS. His expertise concerns sustainable biomass, ma-terial-flow and life-cycle analysis, and scenario models. He is National Team Leader of IEA Bioenergy Task 40, and contributes to the GBEP. Uwe Fritsche is a physicist and worked since 1984

at Oeko-Institut’s Energy & Climate Division.

Hannes Böttcher

Hannes Böttcher is a forest scien-tist and research scholar of IIASA’s Ecosystem Services and Management (ESM) program and works on emis-sions from land use, land use change and forestry as well as on the quantifi-cation of mitigation options in the land use sector.

bioenergy scenarios that contribute to a sustainable energy future in the eu27

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