benchmark states 10-year€¦ · tuesday may 24, 2016 bloomberg aaa benchmark yields description...

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Tuesday May 24, 2016 www.bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg AAA Benchmark Yields DESCRIPTION CURRENT PREVIOUS NET CHANGE BVAL Muni Benchmark 1T 0.57 0.57 0 BVAL Muni Benchmark 2T 0.70 0.69 +0.01 BVAL Muni Benchmark 3T 0.82 0.82 0 BVAL Muni Benchmark 4T 0.93 0.92 +0.01 BVAL Muni Benchmark 5T 1.03 1.02 +0.01 BVAL Muni Benchmark 6T 1.14 1.14 0 BVAL Muni Benchmark 7T 1.23 1.23 -0.01 BVAL Muni Benchmark 8T 1.34 1.34 0 BVAL Muni Benchmark 9T 1.47 1.46 +0.01 BVAL Muni Benchmark 10T 1.59 1.58 +0.01 BVAL Muni Benchmark 20T 2.19 2.19 0 BVAL Muni Benchmark 30T 2.46 2.45 +0.01 Source: GBY<GO>, GC I493 <GO> Puerto Rico Governor Says Budget Omits Bonds BY MICHELLE KASKE AND JONATHAN LEVIN, BLOOMBERG NEWS Puerto Rico Governor presented a $9.1 billion spending Alejandro Garcia Padilla plan for the fiscal year starting July 1 that allocates just $209 million for bond payments, reiterating his stand that the commonwealth plans to skip most debt obligations. “Paying the debt in its totality would have meant taking health benefits away from more than a million people, or having to fire countless police officers and closing the Centro Medico” health facility, Garcia Padilla said during a televised address. Or, he said, “going without school transportation and garbage collection.” Island lawmakers have until June 30 to approve a budget for fiscal 2017 or the government uses the current year’s spending plan as a framework. The budget proposal doesn’t rely on borrowing to fill a deficit and doesn’t include any tax increases, the governor said. It is $192 million less than the revised $9.3 billion fiscal 2016 budget. This is Garcia Padilla’s final budget as he is not seeking re-election. Island officials anticipate Puerto Rico’s economy will shrink by 2 percent in fiscal 2017, for the fifth straight year of economic contraction. The administration is working on reducing the island’s $70 billion debt burden by asking investors to accept losses on their securities. The commonwealth and its agencies owe $2 billion on July 1, including $805 million for general obligations which Garcia Padilla has said multiple times that the government doesn’t have the money to pay. The budget plan comes as federal lawmakers are working on a bill that would allow the commonwealth to restructure its debt. The House Natural Resources Committee may vote Wednesday on the legislation. The bill would create a federal board to manage any debt restructurings and oversee the commonwealth’s budgets. “We need congressional action with even more urgency today than when I last addressed the country on April 30,” Garcia Padilla said. “We simply can’t sit here with our arms crossed waiting for something to happen. That’s the point of this budget.” The budget proposal doesn’t include laying off employees. The spending plan allocates an additional $45 million over the required amount to the island’s largest public workers’ pension system and another $30 million to its teachers’ retirement plan. STATE YIELD SPREAD TO AAA CHANGE CA 1.82 24 0 FL 1.74 16 +0.01 IL 3.40 182 0 NY 1.67 9 +0.01 PA 2.23 65 +0.01 TX 1.84 26 +0.01 MUNICIPALITY AMOUNT Chicago Midway Airport IL $348 million Rev Fort Worth TX $165 million GO SMUD CA $149 million Rev Pennsylvania $991 million GO Clark County NV $108 million Rev Source: Bloomberg CDRA <GO> AMOUNT OUTSTANDING ($MLNS) MATURING NEXT 30 DAYS ($MLNS) ANNOUNCED CALLS NEXT 30 DAYS ($MLNS) 3,572,275 16,961 12,532 Source: MBM<GO> BENCHMARK STATES 10-YEAR PRIMARY FIXED RATE 30-Day Supply Fixed: $11.1 Bln (LT) 30-Day Supply Fixed: $388 Mln (ST) Sold YTD Fixed: $122.4 Bln (Neg LT) Sold YTD Fixed: $37 Bln (Comp LT) Sold YTD Fixed: $7.5 Bln (ST) SECONDARY MARKET MSRB: $9.4 Bln PICK: $15.8 Bln VARIABLE RATE SIFMA Muni Swap Rate: 0.4% Bloomberg Weekly AAA Rate: 0.403% Bloomberg Weekly AA Rate: 0.424% Daily Reset Inventory: $282 Mln Weekly Reset Inventory: $1.7 Bln IN THE PIPELINE SIZE OF MARKET DIARY

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Page 1: BENCHMARK STATES 10-YEAR€¦ · Tuesday May 24, 2016  Bloomberg AAA Benchmark Yields DESCRIPTION CURRENT PREVIOUS NET CHANGE BVAL Muni Benchmark 1T 0.57 0.57 0

Tuesday

May 24, 2016

www.bloombergbriefs.com

 

Bloomberg AAA Benchmark Yields

DESCRIPTION CURRENT PREVIOUS NET CHANGE

BVAL Muni Benchmark 1T 0.57 0.57 0

BVAL Muni Benchmark 2T 0.70 0.69 +0.01

BVAL Muni Benchmark 3T 0.82 0.82 0

BVAL Muni Benchmark 4T 0.93 0.92 +0.01

BVAL Muni Benchmark 5T 1.03 1.02 +0.01

BVAL Muni Benchmark 6T 1.14 1.14 0

BVAL Muni Benchmark 7T 1.23 1.23 -0.01

BVAL Muni Benchmark 8T 1.34 1.34 0

BVAL Muni Benchmark 9T 1.47 1.46 +0.01

BVAL Muni Benchmark 10T 1.59 1.58 +0.01

BVAL Muni Benchmark 20T 2.19 2.19 0

BVAL Muni Benchmark 30T 2.46 2.45 +0.01Source:    GBY<GO>, GC I493 <GO>

Puerto Rico Governor Says Budget Omits BondsBY MICHELLE KASKE AND JONATHAN LEVIN, BLOOMBERG NEWS

Puerto Rico Governor presented a $9.1 billion spending Alejandro Garcia Padillaplan for the fiscal year starting July 1 that allocates just $209 million for bond payments, reiterating his stand that the commonwealth plans to skip most debt obligations.

“Paying the debt in its totality would have meant taking health benefits away from more than a million people, or having to fire countless police officers and closing the Centro Medico” health facility, Garcia Padilla said during a televised address. Or, he said, “going without school transportation and garbage collection.”

Island lawmakers have until June 30 to approve a budget for fiscal 2017 or the government uses the current year’s spending plan as a framework. The budget proposal doesn’t rely on borrowing to fill a deficit and doesn’t include any tax increases, the governor said. It is $192 million less than the revised $9.3 billion fiscal 2016 budget.

This is Garcia Padilla’s final budget as he is not seeking re-election. Island officials anticipate Puerto Rico’s economy will shrink by 2 percent in fiscal 2017, for the fifth straight year of economic contraction. The administration is working on reducing the island’s $70 billion debt burden by asking investors to accept losses on their securities. The commonwealth and its agencies owe $2 billion on July 1, including $805 million for general obligations which Garcia Padilla has said multiple times that the government doesn’t have the money to pay.

The budget plan comes as federal lawmakers are working on a bill that would allow the commonwealth to restructure its debt. The House Natural Resources Committee may vote Wednesday on the legislation. The bill would create a federal board to manage any debt restructurings and oversee the commonwealth’s budgets.

“We need congressional action with even more urgency today than when I last addressed the country on April 30,” Garcia Padilla said. “We simply can’t sit here with our arms crossed waiting for something to happen. That’s the point of this budget.”

The budget proposal doesn’t include laying off employees. The spending plan allocates an additional $45 million over the required amount to the island’s largest public workers’ pension system and another $30 million to its teachers’ retirement plan.

STATE YIELD SPREAD TO AAA CHANGE

CA 1.82 24 0

FL 1.74 16 +0.01

IL 3.40 182 0

NY 1.67 9 +0.01

PA 2.23 65 +0.01

TX 1.84 26 +0.01

MUNICIPALITY AMOUNT

Chicago Midway Airport IL $348 million Rev

Fort Worth TX $165 million GO

SMUD CA $149 million Rev

Pennsylvania $991 million GO

Clark County NV $108 million RevSource: Bloomberg CDRA <GO>

AMOUNT OUTSTANDING

($MLNS)

MATURING NEXT 30

DAYS ($MLNS)

ANNOUNCED CALLS NEXT 30 DAYS ($MLNS)

3,572,275 16,961 12,532Source: MBM<GO>

BENCHMARK STATES 10-YEAR

PRIMARY FIXED RATE

30-Day Supply Fixed: $11.1 Bln (LT)30-Day Supply Fixed: $388 Mln (ST)Sold YTD Fixed: $122.4 Bln (Neg LT)Sold YTD Fixed: $37 Bln (Comp LT)Sold YTD Fixed: $7.5 Bln (ST)

SECONDARY MARKET

MSRB: $9.4 BlnPICK: $15.8 Bln

VARIABLE RATE

SIFMA Muni Swap Rate: 0.4%Bloomberg Weekly AAA Rate: 0.403% Bloomberg Weekly AA Rate: 0.424% Daily Reset Inventory: $282 Mln  Weekly Reset Inventory: $1.7 Bln  

IN THE PIPELINE

SIZE OF MARKET

DIARY

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May 24, 2016 Bloomberg Brief Municipal Market 2

DIARYChicago Reaches Plan to Shore Up Small Pension FundBY ELIZABETH CAMPBELL, BLOOMBERG NEWS

Chicago Mayor reached an agreement with unions on a way to shore Rahm Emanuelup the smallest of the city’s struggling pension funds, saying it would create a “path to solvency” after a previous overhaul was struck down by the Illinois Supreme Court.

The city and two unions reached a pact that — if finalized — would aid a pension that's set to run out of money by 2029. The deal would require an increase in contributions from employees who want to retire as early as 65 and boost Chicago’s payments into the Laborers’ and Retirement Board Employees’ Annuity and Benefit Fund by no less than 30 percent a year over five years, beginning with the contribution due in 2018. The fund serves some 8,000 employees, retirees and beneficiaries.

“This agreement marks a tremendous step forward in ensuring that the city’s employees and retirees have a secure retirement, while protecting Chicago’s taxpayers from bearing the entire responsibility on their own,” Emanuel said in a statement.

The arrangement would begin to chip away at Chicago’s soaring debt to its employee retirement system, which has a more than $20 billion shortfall after years of failing to put enough taxpayer money aside. The mounting strain on the budget as the city is forced to catch up led Moody’s Investors Service to cut Chicago’s bond rating to junk a year ago, giving it a lower grade than any big U.S. city except once-bankrupt Detroit.

The proposal provides a “good framework” for how to approach the municipal pension, a larger fund, Chicago Chief Financial Officer said on a conference call Carole Brownwith reporters. That fund is set to run out of money within 10 years.

“We’re pretty optimistic about having a solution also for munis in relatively short order,” Brown said.

Read a full version of this story .here

Lawmakers Reach Atlantic City Rescue CompromiseBY ROMY VARGHESE, BLOOMBERG NEWS

After months of political gridlock, New Jersey lawmakers reached agreement on an Atlantic City rescue plan that would give the troubled gambling hub until the end of the year to fix its finances and avoid a state takeover.

An assembly committee yesterday approved a measure to extend bridge loans and grants to Atlantic City, which would have to come up with an acceptable five-year plan or be put under state control. Mayor said he supports the bill. The full Don GuardianAssembly and the Senate may vote on the legislation Thursday.

"Atlantic City will now have time to take care of their own house," Assembly Speaker said before the Judiciary committee voted to move the bills forward. He Vincent Prieto

said he’s confident Republican Governor will support the package.Chris ChristieChristie and the Democrat-led legislature this year have been at loggerheads over

how to prevent the financial collapse of the 39,000-resident seaside town, whose gambling industry has been battered by competition from neighboring states. Christie has refused to extend aid to the city unless lawmakers approve giving the state unprecedented control over its operations and the ability to change labor contracts.

Senate President Stephen Sweeney, who has been working with Christie on Atlantic City, supports the legislation, said , his spokesman. Christie’s office didn’t Rich McGrathreturn a request for comment.

Atlantic City, which once had a monopoly on gambling on the East Coast, has been veering toward insolvency since a third of its 12 betting parlors closed in 2014. Other casinos have successfully challenged the size of their tax bills, causing the property-tax base to tumble by more than two thirds since 2010, according to Moody’s.

State intervention may not prevent bond losses, said S&P Global Ratings this month. It cut Atlantic City deeper into junk and warned that a default or debt restructuring was a “virtual certainty.”

No municipality in New Jersey has defaulted or entered bankruptcy protection since the Great Depression, which has given the state a reputation for standing behind distressed local governments.

The City of Philadelphia accused Bank of America Corp., Barclays Plc and several other big U.S. and European banks of conspiring to block exchange-style trading for interest-rate swaps.

The antitrust complaint filed in Chicago federal court yesterday names at least a dozen investment banks as defendants as well as the trading platform ICAP Capital Markets LLC. The Public School Teachers’ Pension and Retirement Fund of Chicago filed a similar lawsuit against the banks in November.

Philadelphia filed the suit as a proposed class-action, or group, complaint on behalf of other cities and entities that entered into interest-rate swaps with the banks beginning in January 2007.

Philadelphia, like many municipalities across the country, was stuck with swaps that proved to be costly after the credit crisis. The city began spending more than it received on the transactions after the Federal Reserve lowered rates in an attempt to stimulate the economy. A 2012 report from the city treasurer’s office estimated that Philadelphia’s borrowing costs may have increased by as much as $186 million compared to what it would have paid to issue fixed-rate debt.

The banks are accused in the lawsuit of restricting the transition from over-the-counter trading of interest-rate swaps to electronic exchanges. Over-the-counter trading restricts buyers’ ability to compare prices and keeps them higher for banks, the city claims.

"This case is about defendants’ efforts to forestall the development of exchange-style trading" for interest-rate swaps "by using their market power, collectively, to exclude rivals and new entrants from the marketplace," according to the complaint. "Defendants worked together systematically to stop that progress in its tracks."

Guy Taylor, an ICAP spokesman, declined to comment on the suit. Larry Grayson, a spokesman for Bank of America, didn’t immediately return a call for comment. Messages left at the press office of Barclays weren’t immediately returned.

— Erik Larson, Bloomberg News

Philadelphia Sues Banks Over Rate-Swap Market    

ACCORDING TO

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May 24, 2016 Bloomberg Brief Municipal Market 3

ACCORDING TOAFL-CIO Seeks SEC Probe of Mutual Fund Firms on Puerto RicoBY MICHELLE KASKE, BLOOMBERG NEWS

The AFL-CIO, the largest U.S. labor-union federation, is urging the Securities and Exchange Commission to investigate whether OppenheimerFunds Inc. and Franklin Templeton Resources adequately valued their Puerto Rico bond holdings as the island’s fiscal crisis worsened.

The American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations wants the SEC to look into whether the companies took account of market swings when reporting the net asset value of funds holding commonwealth debt, the AFL-Heather Slavkin Corzo,CIO’s director of the Office of Investment, wrote in a letter yesterday to the SEC.

“There have been numerous market events that could affect the current value of both companies’ funds, yet it is unclear from the filings examined if and how those events were factored in to each companies’ valuation methods,” Slavkin

wrote in the letter.Corzo

The AFL-CIO’s letter follows a similar request this month by New York City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito. She asked the SEC on May 5 to investigate whether OppenheimerFunds complied with securities laws and regulations regarding its investments in commonwealth debt.

“Union members have substantial exposure to the capital markets and have an interest in the precedent set with respect to the valuation practices of money managers,” wrote.Slavkin Corzo

OppenheimerFunds and Franklin Templeton Resources have purchased Puerto Rico securities for years and are the two biggest investors in the island’s debt among U.S. municipal mutual funds. Oppenheimer held $3.5 billion of Puerto Rico securities for a 15 percent allocation as of March 31, according to Morningstar Inc. That’s down from $4.77 billion at the start of 2014. Franklin Templeton held $1.4 billion of commonwealth debt for a 2 percent allocation as of March 31. That’s

less than half the $3.7 billion that Franklin held at the end of 2013, according to Morningstar.

Oppenheimer uses independent valuations from third-party pricing services, said a Kimberly Weinrick, spokeswoman at the firm.

“We are transparent with investors regarding the valuation practices of our funds’ portfolio holdings,” Weinrick said. “These valuations reflect fair-market value and conform with generally accepted accounting principals.”

Stacey Coleman, a spokeswoman for Franklin Templeton, said the company “employs a rigorous pricing process that is consistent with regulatory requirements. In addition, Puerto Rico bonds have been actively traded for years which provides real-time price information for valuation of our portfolios.”

Judith Burns, a spokeswoman at the SEC, declined to comment.

  

Q&A

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May 24, 2016 Bloomberg Brief Municipal Market 4

Q&AFor Centre Asset's Barneby, Focus Is On Quality, GOs

Municipal investors are concerned by the high-

profile debt crises in Chicago and Puerto Rico but

they still aren’t willing to "throw out the baby with

the bathwater," says Centre Asset Management's

who oversees about $50 million in Kirk Barneby,

municipals as manager of the Centre Active U.S.

Tax Exempt Fund. More than 80 percent of

Barneby's fund is rated AAA and it has returned

about 5 percent during the past year, Bloomberg

data show. Barneby spoke with Bloomberg Brief

reporter Amanda Albright about trends he's

seeing. The interview has been edited and

condensed.  

Q: Are there any parts of the muni market that would be disadvantaged by a rate hike?A: All fixed income securities will suffer in terms of price declines as rates move higher. It seems unlikely to me that any sector will experience spread narrowing relative to the Treasury curve that could offset the general upward direction that rates will have. For fixed income investors in a rising rate environment, they have to be sensitive to the fact that prices will be declining.

Q: Do you have any predictions for 2016 in terms of volume?

I don't think we're going to have any A: lack of Treasury debt. And it seems to me that municipal issuance will continue to be fairly significant as well. From our perspective as a portfolio manager, obviously liquidity is something to which we're sensitive. It looks like there will be sufficient issuance to keep the markets liquid. We don't really have a prediction other than we think there will be plenty of paper to buy.

Q: Investors are continually adding to municipal funds, according to Lipper. Why are they turning to the market?

Munis have a unique place in the U.S. A: fixed income market because of the tax advantage that they have. Investors continue to look to the muni market as a form of tax advantage savings, or potentially wealth accumulation. As the population in the U.S. continues to age, we tend to move away from riskier assets towards what's perceived as a less risky

 

asset, albeit one that generally offers less growth. Because of the tax advantage that munis have, a lot of investors look to the muni market as their core investment. So I can't imagine that the fund flows into munis will stop any time in the near future because our population continues to age.

Q: Have investors been deterred by what's been going on in Puerto Rico

and Chicago? That's certainly caused concern, but A:

muni investors don’t seem to be willing to throw out the baby with the bathwater. I think that makes investors cautious and could potentially cause a tilt towards higher-quality, less risky municipal securities.

Q: A Citigroup report in April said that headlines about Puerto Rico and Chicago might be causing retail investors to invest in munis through ETFs or mutual funds instead of

directly buying municipals. Do you think there's more interest in going through a fund like yours?

Well, I certainly hope that’s the case. A:That would make my day job potentially much more profitable. To me, that makes a lot of sense. We've all heard, 'Don't put your eggs in one basket.' The principle of diversification is a well-established criteria for successful long-term investing. A mutual fund or an ETF offers an opportunity for broad-based participation in the market without taking on any specific risk or a lot of specific issuer risk.  Unless you are very, very wealthy and you are able to diversify your portfolio across a number of holdings, either a municipal security-related ETF or an

actively managed mutual fund is a better route in the sense that it offers the type of diversification that helps reduce the risk that investors have in their overall portfolio.

Q: Where are you finding the most — opportunity in the market where are

you finding value and yield? What we want is yield that is reflective A:

of the muni curve generally, recognizing that our quality bias is going to cause us to have lower overall yield than the broad muni market. When we as investors start stretching for yield, you see spreads becoming very compressed. That’s often a warning sign or danger that you're setting yourself up for problems when rates begin to move higher.   We want to focus on quality. If we can protect against rate risk and take advantage of rate opportunity — yields declining and bond prices rising — we think we'll be able to offset any yield pickup that you might get from reducing quality or becoming focused on any one or two sectors within the muni market.

Q: Is there anything in the market that keeps you up at night?

Just because we have a high quality A: bias, it reduces the likelihood based on much past research that we see a downgrade or a default. But in this life, never say never. We have some concern as does any manager about what's going on in the municipalities in which we're invested. Our greater focus is on rates and our ability to either avoid a significant uptick in rates or to take advantage of a decline in rates. When I stay up at night, my worry is more about the interest rate call rather than the credit quality.

Age: 69: New York CityBased in

: Madison, CTHometown: Centre Asset Management, UBSBrief career history

/PaineWebber, Continental Can, Citibank.Degrees: B.S. Economics and Mathematics, Missouri State University; Completed exams and coursework for a Ph.D. in Economics, Oklahoma State University.Recommended book: "Getting Off Track" by John B. Taylor

: Spending time with the family in TexasBest recent vacationFavorite sports team: St. Louis Cardinals

CREDIT CLOSE-UP

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May 24, 2016 Bloomberg Brief Municipal Market 5

CREDIT CLOSE-UPBuy The Dip Becomes The Muni Mantra as Bonds Become Even Scarcer    BY BRIAN CHAPPATTA, BLOOMBERG NEWS

The “buy the dip” mentality has come to the municipal market.

With tax-exempt yields at the lowest in five decades and mutual funds receiving the most cash since 2010, investors are looking at any pullback as a chance to buy. That’s just what they’ve got: Benchmark 10-year yields climbed by about 0.06 percentage point in the past week since minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting suggested that the central bank may be getting closer to another interest rate increase in the coming months.

“Any backup, we’d view as a buying opportunity,” said head of Sean Carney, muni strategy at BlackRock Inc., which oversees $119 billion of state and local debt. “As long as demand remains as strong as it has been, it’s difficult to identify the catalyst that breaks the back of recent market performance.”

The increase probably won’t last long, even if the Fed raises short-term lending rates. On top of the billions of dollars pouring into muni mutual funds, about $73 billion of state and local debt will mature in June and July combined, the most this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That adds buying pressure at a time when tax-free yields are historically low, yet cheap relative to global alternatives.

The $3.7 trillion municipal-bond market has gained in each of the first four months this year, only the third time that's happened since 1989, Bank of America Merrill Lynch data show. It’s up 0.4 percent in May, even as Treasuries and corporate debt have declined.

Even the tax-exempt market has weakened on the Fed officials’ emphasis that they could raise their benchmark rate in June. The futures market is factoring in a 32 percent chance the U.S. central bank will raise rates next month, up from just 4 percent a week ago. Over that period, munis declined 0.2 percent.

Countering the effect of the Fed’s minutes: Individuals poured $1.25 billion into tax-exempt mutual funds in the week

 

through May 18, the most this year, Lipper US Fund Flows data show. That extends the current streak of inflows to 33 weeks, the longest in six years.

In addition to the inflows, muni investors are poised to receive a wave of cash as their securities mature. About $36.5 billion will come due in each of the next two months, and another $31.5 billion will mature in August, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Many individuals hold the bonds until maturity for the tax-free income, meaning they’ll use much of the principal payments to purchase new securities.

Others are newcomers — Asian and European investors who are buying U.S. state and local-government debt in the face of negative interest rates in their own countries.

“There’s just been such rabid demand for munis this year,” said Steve

a senior muni portfolio McLaughlin, manager focused on arbitrage trading at First Empire Securities in Chatham, New Jersey. When it comes to bond prices, “we’re at all-time highs, but we could shoot through that,” he said.

More investors are coming into the

market looking for bonds just as fewer municipal issuers are selling them.

State and local governments have scheduled about $11 billion of bond sales in the next 30 days, the smallest slate in a month, Bloomberg data show. While the figure tends to underestimate the amount of offerings because some are announced just days in advance, it serves as an indicator of what to expect.

Issuance tends to climb from May to June, explaining why munis have posted negative returns during the month in most of the past decade, BlackRock’s Carney said. The fact that the Fed is considering raising interest rates adds to the chance of losses in the weeks ahead, he said.

Though for any sellers out there, it appears there will be just as many buyers — if not more.

“These yields are low, but they certainly have the potential to go even lower as we head into June and July with a heavy calendar of maturing bonds and coupons,” said head of Phil Fischer, municipal research in New York at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “Performance in munis has just been something to write home about.”

 

TAXES

Less Supply In Sight

New municipal-bond sales set for next 30 days fall below 2016 average.

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May 24, 2016 Bloomberg Brief Municipal Market 6

TAXESStates Eye Wallets of Richest Residents With Income-Tax MeasuresBY JAMES NASH, BLOOMBERG NEWS

Voters in as many as four states in November will consider higher levies on their wealthiest residents as income inequality steers liberal activists and politicians toward more progressive taxation.

Colorado and Maine may raise taxes on top earners. Minnesota is looking to apply the state’s Social Security tax to high incomes to care for senior citizens and people with disabilities. California voters could extend by 12 years a soon-to-expire income-tax increase on the wealthy, while the state’s most populous county, Los Angeles, is eyeing a new tax on millionaires to pay for homeless services.

If the statewide measures appear on ballots in November, more voters will consider higher taxes for the wealthy than in any year since the 1980s,according to Ballotpedia, an online almanac sponsored by the nonprofit Lucy Burns Institute in Wisconsin. The Occupy Wall Street movement and Bernie

’s presidential campaign have Sandersbrought attention to the widening gap between rich and poor as states and municipalities expect a slowdown in tax collections as the economic recovery cools.

"There is more action in the states because the federal government, particularly the Republicans in the House of Representatives, don’t really care what the people think," said , a Morris Pearl56-year-old former managing director at BlackRock Inc. who now heads the Patriotic Millionaires, a coalition of wealthy Americans advocating higher taxes on the rich. "In a lot of states, people are realizing that the wealthy are taking advantage of the system."

Nationally, people earning at least $250,000 paid more than 51 percent of income taxes in 2014, while accounting for just 2.7 percent of returns, according to the Pew Research Center. Still, a provision of the federal code that taxes investment income at lower rates than normal earnings, along with reductions in the top income-tax rate since the 1960s, have fed perceptions that the wealthy are gaming the system.

While there’s disagreement as to the causes, studies have shown that income

is increasingly concentrated among top earners, with relative declines among the middle class and the poor. The highest-earning 1 percent of households increased their income by about 275 percent after taxes between 1979 and 2007, compared with a gain of about 40 percent for the middle 60 percent of America’s income distribution, according to a 2011 study by the Congressional Budget Office.

Congress in 2013 permanently extended the -era tax George W. Bushcuts for most people while raising the top tax rate to 39.6 percent. The federal rate hasn’t changed since then and efforts to tax the rich more often face opposition from limited-government advocates.

"When politicians want to raise taxes, they always tell people they’re going to raise taxes on someone else: smokers, millionaires, people who drink soda pop," said , founder ofGrover Norquist

"There's only so much money you can get from the Kennedy

family."— GROVER NORQUIST, AMERICANS FOR

TAX REFORM

Americans for Tax Reform, which opposes tax increases. "But it always shifts from taxing certain people to taxing as many people as you can. There’s only so much money you can get from the Kennedy family."

Forty-three states tax personal income, according to the Tax Foundation. Eight have a flat tax and the others have some form of progressive taxation. California’s rate tops out at 13.3 percent for income above $1 million, the highest in the country and the result of a 2012 ballot measure to erase a budget gap by increasing sales taxes and levies on income above $250,000.

The higher income taxes were

supposed to expire after seven years and the sales taxes after four. A union-backed coalition has gathered signatures toward a November ballot measure that would extend the higher income taxes for 12 years, while allowing the sales tax increase to expire.

Jon Coupal, president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, named for the sponsor of a 1978 ballot measure to limit property-tax increases, said he understands the politics of higher taxes on the wealthy. Still, Coupal said raising income taxes would cause many business owners and entrepreneurs to leave California for states such as Nevada, which has no income tax.

"Nothing is more mobile than rich people and capital," Coupal said. "If you keep piling taxes on top of other taxes, you’ll see people leave."

A Stanford University study in 2014 said evidence of millionaires fleeing is "hard to find." , a senior Kim Ruebenfellow in the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, said higher taxes on their own rarely spur people to move, noting that most increases are relatively modest. Tax rates, she said, are one factor among many that influence where the rich live.

Colorado activists need more than 98,000 signatures by August to put on the November ballot a measure that would add an additional 0.5 percent levy on income of more than $405,000 to the state’s current 4.63 percent flat tax. Minnesota’s legislature is considering a ballot measure to fund long-term care for senior citizens and the disabled by extending Social Security taxes to higher wages. Maine voters will decide the fate of a 3 percent surcharge on income exceeding $200,000 per year, with proceeds earmarked for public schools.

Supporters of a Massachusetts tax increase are aiming for a 2018 ballot measure to expand the current 5.1 percent flat tax by 4 percentage points on income exceeding $1 million. Massachusetts has a convoluted history with the income tax: Measures to replace the flat tax with a graduated rate have been defeated at the ballot five times, while two proposals to eliminate the tax altogether also failed.

RESULTS OF SALES

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May 24, 2016 Bloomberg Brief Municipal Market 7

Long-Term Bond Sales Results

SELLING DATE

ISSUE STATE RATING TAXAMT

($Mlns)1 YEAR 5 YEAR 10 YEAR STATUS TYPE SENIOR MANAGER ENHANCEMENT

05/23Garvin Co Edu Facs Auth

OK /A/ N 12.482.000/1.090

4.000/1.820

5.000/2.590

Final Negt Da Davidson & Co

05/23 Romulus Tif Auth MI /A+/ N 10.373.000/1.020

4.000/1.750

5.000/2.500

Final NegtRobert W. Baird & Co Inc

BAM

05/23 Vilas Cnty WI Aa2// Q 10.002.000/1.250

2.000/1.750

Final NegtRobert W. Baird & Co Inc

05/2311:00

Greene Co           -Ref TN A1// N 12.144.000/0.670

5.000/1.220

2.000/2.050

Awarded CompFtn Fin Capital Markets

05/2311:30

Murfreesboro -Ref     -C TNAa1/AA/

N 17.025.000/0.600

5.000/1.130

2.000/1.850

Awarded CompCitigroup Global Mkts Inc

*Moody's/S&P/Fitch

Most Active Bonds

DESCRIPTION STATE DATED COUPON MATURITY VOLUME PRICED AVERAGE YIELD AVERAGE NO. OF TRADES

Met Trans Auth -B-1 NY 05/26/16 5.000 11/15/36 83,485,000 122.893 2.490 42

New York-E-Ref NY 05/27/16 4.000 08/01/33 72,755,000 113.247 2.516 121

New York-E-Ref NY 05/27/16 5.000 08/01/20 46,730,000 116.093 1.052 65

New York-E-Ref NY 05/27/16 5.000 08/01/26 44,765,000 128.915 1.867 99

Northside Isd-Remk TX 07/15/12 N.A. 06/01/32 42,105,000 100.000 1.750 10

New York-E-Ref NY 05/27/16 5.000 08/01/34 39,480,000 123.362 2.400 68

New York-E-Ref NY 05/27/16 5.000 08/01/19 35,670,000 112.738 0.923 54

New York-E-Ref NY 05/27/16 5.000 08/01/21 30,410,000 119.127 1.180 56

New York-E-Ref NY 05/27/16 5.000 08/01/27 29,000,000 127.393 2.010 7

New York-E-Ref NY 05/27/16 5.000 08/01/30 27,770,000 125.578 2.183 13

Casino Reinvestmnt-B NJ 03/23/05 5.460 06/01/25 26,000,000 100.917 5.330 6

New York-E-Ref NY 05/27/16 5.000 08/01/23 25,245,000 124.213 1.437 50

New York-E-Ref NY 05/27/16 5.000 08/01/22 24,825,000 121.797 1.314 48

Nyc Wtr Var-2Nd-Bb-1 NY 08/07/08 N.A. 06/15/39 23,400,000 100.000 0.000 6

E Baton Rouge Indl-B LA 12/14/10 N.A. 12/01/40 22,400,000 100.000 N.A. 6

New York-E-Ref NY 05/27/16 2.750 08/01/35 22,335,000 98.764 2.834 114

Ia Fin Auth-E-Ref IA 06/07/16 4.000 08/15/46 22,000,000 105.685 3.300 7

New York Transprtn-A NY 06/01/16 4.000 07/01/46 21,750,000 103.356 3.519 9

Nyc Wtr-Adj-F1 NY 05/15/01 N.A. 06/15/33 21,700,000 100.000 N.A. 5

Indianapolis Loc-A1 IN 06/15/16 4.000 01/01/35 21,570,000 107.082 3.169 18

L A Wtr/Pwr-Var-A-2 CA 08/22/02 N.A. 07/01/35 19,800,000 100.000 N.A. 4

Ca Dev Var-C1-Kaiser CA 06/03/09 N.A. 04/01/46 18,300,000 100.000 N.A. 4

Met Trans Auth-B-2 NY 05/26/16 3.000 11/15/39 17,525,000 99.367 3.030 76

RESULTS OF SALES

TRADING

TWEET OF THE DAY BY JOE MYSAK, BLOOMBERG BRIEF

Page 8: BENCHMARK STATES 10-YEAR€¦ · Tuesday May 24, 2016  Bloomberg AAA Benchmark Yields DESCRIPTION CURRENT PREVIOUS NET CHANGE BVAL Muni Benchmark 1T 0.57 0.57 0

May 24, 2016 Bloomberg Brief Municipal Market 8

 

Find Muni Data on the Bloomberg Terminal

DATA FREQUENCY ON THE TERMINAL

AAA Benchmark Valuation Daily GC I493 <GO>

Benchmark State Yields Daily MBM <GO>

VRDO Rates, Inventory Daily MBIX <GO>, ALLX BVRD <GO>

Upcoming Sales Daily CDRA <GO>

Volume, MSRB, PICK Daily SPLY <GO>, YTDM <GO>, MSRB <GO>, MBIX <GO>

Results of Sales Daily CDRA <GO>

Most Active Daily MSRB <GO>

Most Searched DES Every Wednesday SECF <GO>

Variable-Rate Calendar Every Thursday CDRV <GO>

Most Traded Borrowers Every Friday MFLO <GO>

Week-Ahead Calendar Every Monday CDRA <GO>

Supply and Demand Every Friday SPLY <GO>, BVMB <GO>

Muni Credit Risk Every Monday MRSK <GO>

TWEET OF THE DAY BY JOE MYSAK, BLOOMBERG BRIEF

Little Things Add Up When It Comes to Pensions

Claudia Vargas@InqCVargas

City officials say pension benefits negotiated years ago were too costly. Mayor Kenney's turn to negotiate soon. philly.com/philly/news/po…Details

The Philadelphia Inquirer's City Hall reporter tweets a link to her story, "Big Pensions Add to City's Retirement Fund Woes,'' which found that more than 30 former city employees collect pensions of $100,000 or more. "The city is $5.9 billion short of its $11 billion pension liabilities,'' Vargas wrote.  

 

  

 

 

 

 

Bloomberg Brief:Municipal Market

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