beacon equity research analyst: lisa springer, cfa

7
BEACON EQUITY RESEARCH Analyst: Lisa Springer, CFA Report Update February 4th, 2008 Company Overview XsunX, Inc. (OTC BB: XSNX) was created in 2003 to develop and commercialize advanced, thin-film photovoltaic (TFPV) solar cell technologies and manufactur- ing processes. During 2007, the Company shiſted its business focus from technol- ogy licensing to producing and marketing thin-film, amorphous solar modules. The Company has begun work on a multi-megawa solar module production facility in the US and has commissioned a baseline production system expected to come on-line in early 2008. This baseline system will serve as the blueprint for a 25 megawa (MW) system expected to commence commercial solar module production by year-end 2008. The Company anticipates expanding its annual- ized solar module manufacturing capacity to 100 MW by early 2010. XSNX has secured a $21 million financing commitment from Fusion Capital Fund II, LLC and is already contracting with vendors to begin assembling the parts and sub- systems for its solar module production line. XSNX will initially produce solar Market Data Market data ........................................................ Symbol / Exchange ................................................. Coverage Initiated ................................................ Current Price ................................................................ Rating ................................................................. Price Target ................................................................. Outstanding Shares ......................................................... Market Cap. ................................................................ 52-Week Range................................................... Jan 29th, 2008 OTC BB: XSNX Dec 15th, 2007 $0.47 Speculative Buy $1.50 164.75M $81.5M $0.26 - $0.74 XSNX daily 02/01/08 volume 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 8 6 4 2 0 Millions XsunX, Inc. 65 Enterprise Aliso Viejo, CA 92656 Tel.: 949-330-8060 Tel.: 888-797-4527 Fax: 949-330-8061 www.xsunx.com Dec 08

Upload: beacon-equity

Post on 24-Mar-2016

220 views

Category:

Documents


2 download

DESCRIPTION

Jan 29th, 2008 OTC BB: XSNX Dec 15th, 2007 $0.47 Speculative Buy $1.50 164.75M $81.5M $0.26 - $0.74 XSNX plans to market its solar cells and modules to large-scale solar energy device installers and operators, includ- ing solar farms, government agencies, power purchase associations, utility companies and large commercial installa- tions.

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: BEACON EQUITY RESEARCH Analyst: Lisa Springer, CFA

BEACON EQUITY RESEARCHAnalyst: Lisa Springer, CFAReport UpdateFebruary 4th, 2008

Company Overview

XsunX, Inc. (OTC BB: XSNX) was created in 2003 to develop and commercialize advanced, thin-film photovoltaic (TFPV) solar cell technologies and manufactur-ing processes. During 2007, the Company shifted its business focus from technol-ogy licensing to producing and marketing thin-film, amorphous solar modules.

The Company has begun work on a multi-megawatt solar module production facility in the US and has commissioned a baseline production system expected to come on-line in early 2008. This baseline system will serve as the blueprint for a 25 megawatt (MW) system expected to commence commercial solar module production by year-end 2008. The Company anticipates expanding its annual-ized solar module manufacturing capacity to 100 MW by early 2010. XSNX has secured a $21 million financing commitment from Fusion Capital Fund II, LLC and is already contracting with vendors to begin assembling the parts and sub-systems for its solar module production line. XSNX will initially produce solar

Market Data

Market data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Symbol / Exchange . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Coverage Initiated . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Current Price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Rating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Price Target . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Outstanding Shares . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Market Cap. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .52-Week Range. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Jan 29th, 2008OTC BB: XSNXDec 15th, 2007

$0.47Speculative Buy

$1.50164.75M

$81.5M$0.26 - $0.74

XSNX daily 02/01/08

volume

0.750.700.650.600.550.500.450.400.350.300.25

8

6

4

2

0

Mill

ions

XsunX, Inc.

65 EnterpriseAliso Viejo, CA 92656

Tel.: 949-330-8060Tel.: 888-797-4527Fax: 949-330-8061

www.xsunx.comDec 08

Page 2: BEACON EQUITY RESEARCH Analyst: Lisa Springer, CFA

Analyst: Lisa Springer, CFAReport UpdateFebruary 4th, 2008

XsunX, Inc. (OTC BB: XSNX) 2

cells and modules incorporating thin-film, amorphous silicon on glass substrates. In the future, the Company may expand its product offerings to include nano-crystalline and proprietary multi-junction solar designs, which will im-prove performance and further reduce per-watt production costs.

XSNX plans to market its solar cells and modules to large-scale solar energy device installers and operators, includ-ing solar farms, government agencies, power purchase associations, utility companies and large commercial installa-tions.

Since our December 2007 initial report, XsunX’s share price has risen 57%. These shares presently trade at around $0.47. The recent share price gains reflect a robust growth outlook for the solar energy industry and XsunX’s rapid progress towards commercializing its innovative solar cell products.

The Company has secured the necessary financing to begin construction of the first 25 MW production line of its planned 100 MW thin film photovoltaic manufacturing facility. In 2008, XsunX will focus on establishing and com-mencing commercial production from the first of four proposed 25 MW manufacturing lines. Specific 2008 activities include:

Facilities leasing and preparation to house and operate the first of four proposed 25 MW manufacturing • lines; Establishing a baseline system for producing full-size (100cmx160cm) prototype solar modules; • Placing orders with suppliers for the components that will be needed to assemble and commission its first 25 • MW manufacturing line; Enhancing R&D efforts, with the goals of improving solar cell deposition methods and reducing manufactur-• ing costs.

In addition, XsunX is gauging the interest of potential customers through a Reser-vation Program that asks these customers to quantify planned future solar mod-ule purchases. As of January 18, 2008, the Company had reserved capacity from customers totaling approximately 145 MW of solar cells modules, with deliveries scheduled to begin in 2009.

A competitive analysis report issued by IBIS Associates and entitled “Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)” argues that XSNX’s decision to focus on amorphous silicon thin film sheets and large field installations will likely allow the Company to deliver significant cost advantages to solar operators relative to competing PV technologies. The report highlighted the Company’s ability to market solar modules at prices as high as $3.50 per watt for installations in Phoenix, AZ and provide customers with the lowest cost per kW*h of produced electricity as well as the best performance among incumbent PV technologies deployed in field installations.

As a result, we are reiterating our Speculative Buy Rating for XsunX shares and re-affirming our $1.50 price target.

Analyst Summary

Page 3: BEACON EQUITY RESEARCH Analyst: Lisa Springer, CFA

Analyst: Lisa Springer, CFAReport UpdateFebruary 4th, 2008

XsunX, Inc. (OTC BB: XSNX) 3

On January 24, 2008, IBIS Associates issued a report comparing the costs and benefits of several incumbent PV tech-nologies. “Levelized Cost of Electricity” (LCOE) is an industry terms used to compare power generation technologies that factors in each technology’s power generation capabilities, efficiency, system cost, and reliability. XSNX paid for this analysis; the Company was seeking objective, third-party validation of its decision to focus on amorphous silicon and large, on-grid applications and was also interested in identifying specific market segments for which XsunX’s solar module technology is best-suited.

For their analysis, IBIS Associates selected six competing PV technologies which together represent a diverse range of leading PV products used for field installations:

a-Si triple junction (ECD Ovonics and XsunX)• mc-Si (Schott)• CIGs (Global Solar)• CdTe (First Solar)• X-Si (Sharp)•

The analysis focused on two US locations selected because of their abundant, available climate and environmental data, extreme temperature range and irradiance conditions. The two locations were:

Phoenix, AZ• Portland, OR•

Model Design

The LCOE analysis evaluated the simulated performance of each technology under a specific set of conditions. The baseline analysis focuses on 1 MW fixed field installations; land usage was calculated based on the number of mod-ules required to achieve a minimum power level. In addition, the model took into account current market prices for each tested PV module, including volume discounts. XsunX’s solar module was priced at $3.20 per watt. The model also determined that the Company could market its solar modules at prices as high as $3.50 per watt in the Phoenix, AZ market and still maintain its competitiveness.

Technology Analysis

Source: http://www.xsunx.com/pdf/IBIS-XsunX-LCOE-report.pdf

Performance Characteristic Schottmc-Si

UniSOLAR (a-Si) Triple Junction

GSCECIGS

First Solar CdTe

SharpX-Si

XSunXa-Si

Short Circuit Current (ISC) A 6.5 5.1 4.1 1.066 8.35 1.5Open Circuit Voltage (VOC) V 60 46.2 52 79.58 36.3 58Maximum Power Point Current (Impp) A 5.9 4.1 3.24 0.918 7.53 1.27Maximum Power Point Voltage (Vmpp) V 51 33 37 56.78 28.71 100Inverter power rating Wdc/inverter 333,000 333,000 333,000 333,000 333,000 333,000 Module efficiency % 12.36% 6.26% 8.16% 7.24% 12.60% 7.90%System degradation %/year 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%Module lifetime Years 20 20 20 20 25 20

Page 4: BEACON EQUITY RESEARCH Analyst: Lisa Springer, CFA

Analyst: Lisa Springer, CFAReport UpdateFebruary 4th, 2008

XsunX, Inc. (OTC BB: XSNX) 4

Results and Analysis

The IBIS Associates study identified cost and performance advantages associated with XsunX’s amorphous thin film technology that enable it to outperform silicon wafer and other conventional PV technologies. The Company’s PV technology was the most efficient at generating electricity in low light and high temperature conditions. By using amorphous silicon thin films, XsunX was able to improve overall solar cell output by roughly 20%.

Relatively lower cell power density compared to some of the other solar technologies in the model makes the Compa-ny’s solar modules best-suited for installations where space is not limited such as field installation applications. IBIS Associates also concluded that XsunX’s ASI-120 solar module, in large installations, provides superior performance at lower costs than competing technologies.

Page 5: BEACON EQUITY RESEARCH Analyst: Lisa Springer, CFA

Analyst: Lisa Springer, CFAReport UpdateFebruary 4th, 2008

XsunX, Inc. (OTC BB: XSNX) 5

Source: http://www.xsunx.com/pdf/IBIS-XsunX-LCOE-report.pdf

Phoenix, AZ Results

Annual Output before Derate (Phoenix, AZ) Equivalent degradation factors, 1-axis tracking

3,000

2,750

2,500

2,250

2,000

1,750

1,500 0

Year 10 15 20 25 30

mc-Si

(a-Si) TripleJunction

CIGS

CdTe

X-Si

XSunX

5

Out

put (

MW

-h /

year

)

LCOE Analysis (Year 1) 1 MW 1-axis tracking field installation, Phoenix, AZ

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0 Schiott GSE

Variable O and M

Fixed O and M

Sales & Tax

Proejct Land, Miscellaneous

Contingency Cost

Installation

BOS

Inverter

Module

UniSolar

Cos

t (ce

nts

/ kW

-hr)

First Solar

XSunX Sharp

Engineer, Procurement,Construct

Page 6: BEACON EQUITY RESEARCH Analyst: Lisa Springer, CFA

Analyst: Lisa Springer, CFAReport UpdateFebruary 4th, 2008

XsunX, Inc. (OTC BB: XSNX) 6

Source: http://www.xsunx.com/pdf/IBIS-XsunX-LCOE-report.pdf

Portland, OR Results

Annual Output before Derate (Portaland, OR) Equivalent degradation factors, 1-axis tracking

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000 0

Year 10 15 20 25 30

mc-Si

(a-Si) TripleJunction

CIGS

CdTe

X-Si

XSunX

5

Out

put (

MW

-h /

year

)

LCOE Analysis (Year 1) 1 MW 1-axis tracking field installation, Portland, OR

60

50

40

30

20

10

0 Schiott GSE

Variable O and M

Fixed O and M

Sales & Tax

Proejct Land, Miscellaneous

Contingency Cost

Installation

BOS

Inverter

Module

UniSolar

Cos

t (ce

nts

/ kW

-hr)

First Solar

XSunX Sharp

Engineer, Procurement,Construct

Page 7: BEACON EQUITY RESEARCH Analyst: Lisa Springer, CFA

Analyst: Lisa Springer, CFAReport UpdateFebruary 4th, 2008

XsunX, Inc. (OTC BB: XSNX) 7

Beacon Equity Research (otherwise known as BER) is an independent research firm specializing in small and micro capitalization compa-nies. BER has no investment banking or consultation conflicts thereby minimizing the inherent conflicts of interest between the research analysts and the companies they cover. BER is not a registered investment advisor or broker dealer. No information in this report should be construed as an endorsement to either buy or sell any securities mentioned in this report. The analyst(s) who prepared this report rely on publicly avail¬able information which neither the analyst, nor BER, can guarantee to be error-free or factually accurate. All conclusions in this report are deemed reasonable and appropriate by the author. The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides inves-tors a “safe harbor” in regard to forward-looking statements. To fully comply with the requirements of this law, BER cautions all investors that such forward-looking statements in this report are not guarantees of future performance. Unknown risk, uncertainties, as well as other uncontrollable or unknown factors may cause actual results to materially differ from the results, performance or expectations ex-pressed or implied by such forward-look¬ing statements. Investors should exercise good judgment and perform adequate due-diligence prior to making any investment. BER and its affiliates have been compensated a total of nineteen thousand dollars from a non-controlling third party for enrollment of XSNX in its research program and other services. Ratings and price targets in this report should not be con-strued as recommendations or stock price predictors. Readers of this report are urged to use due-diligence in any purchase of security listed herein. Readers should consult the Company’s SEC filings as well as our initial report on the firm to better understand the inherent risks associated with this security. There may be many uncontrollable or unknown factors which may cause actual results to materially differ from the results, performance or expectations expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Investors should exercise good judgment and perform adequate due-diligence prior to making any investment.

All decisions are made solely by the analyst and independent of outside parties or influence.

I, Lisa Springer, CFA, the author of this report, certify that the material and views presented herein represent my personal opinion regard-ing the content and securities included in this report. In no way has my opinion been influenced by outside parties, nor has my compensa-tion been either directly or indirectly tied to the performance of any security listed. I certify that I do not currently own, nor will own and shares or securities in any of the companies featured in this report.

Lisa Springer, MBA, CFA - Research Analyst

Lisa serves Beacon Research Partners as a research analyst. She brings to the company over 15 years experience in equity research and investment marketing. Prior to joining Beacon, Lisa worked as an equity analyst for an independent research provider. She has also held positions as investor relations officer for a NYSE-listed company and director of financial analysis for a large consulting firm. Lisa earned an MBA from the University of Chicago and is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA).

Disclaimer