bb 1403 communication through technology 1 future trends

8/13/2019 Bb 1403 Communication Through Technology 1 Future Trends

1/14

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Communication through

technology 1:

future trends

IMG SRC: Flickr

####Some recentpredictions...

IMG SRC: Flickr

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"I think there is a world

market for maybe five

computers."Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943


2/14

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"Computers in the future

may weigh no more than

1.5 tons.“

Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of

science, 1949

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“There is no reason

anyone would want a

computer in their home.”

Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital

Equipment Corp., 1977

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"640K ought to be

enough for anybody."

Bill Gates, 1981 apocryphal


3/14

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technology pervades societytechnology pervades societytechnology pervades societytechnology pervades society

• Friends who are facebook addicts

• My 70 year old parents got online

when they retired• People check email (and football

results) when they get up at night to

go to the bathroom

• When a plane lands in Brunei, what

is the first thing everyone does?

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technology pervades our worldtechnology pervades our worldtechnology pervades our worldtechnology pervades our world

jeremy’s

cruiser

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technology pervades our worldtechnology pervades our worldtechnology pervades our worldtechnology pervades our world

• GPS navigation

• Snooper - speed camera locater

• ICE – CD/DVD/iPod• Hands-free phone kit

• Tracking sensor - anti-theft

• Microprocessor - in keys – anti-theft

• Microprocessor - Engine management system

• ABS

• Rearview camera

• Parking sensors


4/14

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technologytechnologytechnologytechnology – –– – the basic ideathe basic ideathe basic ideathe basic idea

• Technological advances allow the

production of more output from existing

resources• more efficient ways of producing existing

output

• production of new (or substantially improved)items

• We gain both from more output/cheaper

prices and from improved items and

innovations

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““““killer killer killer killer”””” technology applicationstechnology applicationstechnology applicationstechnology applications

• Email

• Online shopping and retailing

• Information access

• Mobile phones

• Many more, e.g. medical and

industrial applications

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less thanless thanless thanless than ““““killer killer killer killer”””” technologytechnologytechnologytechnology

applicationsapplicationsapplicationsapplications

• Non disruptive applications of technology

• Small incremental improvements to our

lives

• DVD players, ball point pens, antilock

brakes, central heat, air conditioning, etc.

Their net sum is extremely significant


5/14

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this leads to problem #1this leads to problem #1this leads to problem #1this leads to problem #1

“Technology for Technology’s Sake”

- unnecessary complexity

Examples:• Complexity in MS Word

• The need to reboot anything

• Microprocessors in car keys

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unnecessary unreliabilityunnecessary unreliabilityunnecessary unreliabilityunnecessary unreliability

• Unnecessary complexity leads tounnecessary unreliability

• Complexity increases attack surface

• Simply more that can go wrong!

• Often no backup plans

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my backup plan for this classmy backup plan for this classmy backup plan for this classmy backup plan for this class

Do most people/organizations have workable backupDo most people/organizations have workable backupDo most people/organizations have workable backupDo most people/organizations have workable backup

plans for when technology fails?plans for when technology fails?plans for when technology fails?plans for when technology fails?


6/14

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my not particularly smart homemy not particularly smart homemy not particularly smart homemy not particularly smart home

Sometimes has a mind of itSometimes has a mind of itSometimes has a mind of itSometimes has a mind of it’’’’s owns owns owns own…………

Calls the policeCalls the policeCalls the policeCalls the police

Calls the fire brigadeCalls the fire brigadeCalls the fire brigadeCalls the fire brigade

What could aWhat could aWhat could aWhat could a ““““Smart HouseSmart HouseSmart HouseSmart House”””” potentially do?potentially do?potentially do?potentially do?

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simple is good!simple is good!simple is good!simple is good!

“Make everything as simpleas possible”

----Albert EinsteinAlbert EinsteinAlbert EinsteinAlbert Einstein

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the full quotethe full quotethe full quotethe full quote

“Make everything as simple aspossible, but not simpler”

----Albert EinsteinAlbert EinsteinAlbert EinsteinAlbert Einstein


7/14

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reliability?reliability?reliability?reliability?

• Technology has been evolving sorapidly, the emphasis has been onononon

functionality, not reliabilityfunctionality, not reliabilityfunctionality, not reliabilityfunctionality, not reliability

• This will (need) to change!

• If Microsoft had focused more onreliability, would Windows own thedesktop?

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problem #2 too much informationproblem #2 too much informationproblem #2 too much informationproblem #2 too much information

• The “Information Overload” Age

• Endless interruptions: emails, texts,IMs, buzz’s, tweets

• Are you now more productive or lessproductive than you were 5 years

ago?

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privacyprivacyprivacyprivacy

• Distant past – villages – little privacy.Reasonable in context

• Recent past – cities/industrial age.Reasonable privacy

• Today – who has your data? Is ityours? Is it correct?

• Should we fear Big Brother – e.g.Google, Microsoft, Verizon, MarketingAgencies, everyone who storespersonal data


8/14

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where we are going?where we are going?where we are going?where we are going?

• Integration of technology into our

world

• Reliability – will be assumed – in thefuture

• Ease of use – enormous work on the

Human-Computer interface

• Technology only where it makessense

####webwebwebweb trendstrendstrendstrends

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internet connectivityinternet connectivityinternet connectivityinternet connectivity

Inexpensive, lightening fast &

“always on” internet using Gigabit

wireless connection

Computers light, dumb terminals:

need net connection to work (Google

netbook and Chrome OS)

Most applications web-based for best

efficiency, even television – cloud

computing

IMG SRC: Flickr


9/14

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all digital devices will be networkedall digital devices will be networkedall digital devices will be networkedall digital devices will be networked

From your car, radio, phone, fridge...

“always on”

An unconnected digital device will be

a strange thing

I want... Gigabit wireless glasses

with voice prompted HUD.

What future tech’ would you

like?

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rise of the mobile internetrise of the mobile internetrise of the mobile internetrise of the mobile internet

Rapid improvements in connectivity & user

interface (screen) design

Mobile to be dominant platform for connecting to

net worldwide

Japan: happened already - most surf web through

phone

Voice, SMS, IM use internet wireless connection

(Wi-Fi) will it replace 3G networks?

Phones include electronic wallets & banks = main

method of payment –will you use?

How do you access the internet?

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rise of individual & entrepreneur rise of individual & entrepreneur rise of individual & entrepreneur rise of individual & entrepreneur

Open source = unprecedented access to

code & applications

Cheap to create business online & makeown media

Teenager in basement same opportunity

as worker in big company

EXAMPLE: Android mobile OS

Think of potential online business

opportunities!


10/14

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strides against digital dividestrides against digital dividestrides against digital dividestrides against digital divide

Developing world joins digital ecosystem

via mobile phones

Also become part of economy viacellphone wallet

Mobile phones cheap & broadband

ubiquitous (almost!!)

Illiteracy issues overcome by video &

audio streams

Creates new areas of collaboration and

education

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almost no privacy on the webalmost no privacy on the webalmost no privacy on the webalmost no privacy on the web

Your data will be out there

It will be ok because everyone will be

in the same boat

Seeing already with social

networking services like FaceBook

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the rise of the virtual universethe rise of the virtual universethe rise of the virtual universethe rise of the virtual universe

Virtual worlds like Second Life (SL) go

mainstream

Come to fore as graphics & broadband

improve

Potentially a visual alternative to the www

Standards: different worlds connect to

each other seamlessly

Virtual coup d’etat by SL citizens?

Linden Labs cedes SL to democratically

elected virtual govt


11/14

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information pollution & overloadinformation pollution & overloadinformation pollution & overloadinformation pollution & overload

Next big challenge is how to manage masses ofinformation

People will complain about "digital fatigue“ & digital

noise Focus on developing filters & aggregators ie

Nimbuzz

“Switch-off" holidays regularly prescribed by yourdoctor

Rise of anti-digital movements urging “get back tobasics” Re-born Luddites!

In response to clutter, a second world wide webannounced

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more googles & facebooksmore googles & facebooksmore googles & facebooksmore googles & facebooks

Google & Facebook finally get good

competition

Microsoft releases OS code and goes open

source

MS makes revenue by selling advertising &

giving support

Advertising is main business model,

connecting sellers & buyers – Google model

Facebook becomes a virtual OS/desktop,

with MS influence

####...and media?


12/14

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media distribution & productionmedia distribution & productionmedia distribution & productionmedia distribution & production

All media eventually delivered via

internet

Minimal specialist print, tv, radiomedia companies left

Fully converged, broadcasting &

publishing via the net

Media on many digital platforms

MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA

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fragmented media environmentfragmented media environmentfragmented media environmentfragmented media environment

Media world filled with new competitors

Mobile phone operators, handset makers

become media companies

Mobile network operators stop

aggregating, start producing own content

Operators already big media companies

Battle between media & cellphone

companies looming


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role of media changesrole of media changesrole of media changesrole of media changes

Content aggregators, facilitators

Business model: capture audience via all

means

Media companies look to own channels:

deals for own phones?

Content portals utilise web applications &

services (google docs)

Social networks as well as content hubs



13/14

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is this the end of print?is this the end of print?is this the end of print?is this the end of print?

Books, newspapers magazines...

Read on flexible digital boards, always

connected

Websites & digital newspapers become “same

thing”

Newspapers smaller & niched, but not extinct

Newspapers become expensive, luxury items

A lifestyle item: buying an “experience”, part of

“off-time”


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IMG SRC: WANN

####...other developments


14/14

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other future trendsother future trendsother future trendsother future trends

Semantic web entrenched

predicted evolution of current HTML-based WWW

Information stored in machine-readable formats for easyretrieval by software applications, computer agents, and

virtual assistants. Artificial intelligence

Attention economy in full swing

marketplace where consumers agree to receive services inexchange for their attention

personalized news, searches, alerts and recommendations tobuy.

Not about buying and selling - though ultimately those mayoccur.

Sophisticated personalisation of content

Location-based/mapping services common & mobile

Web 14.0???...

SRC: Read Write/Web, Jaxon Rice, My blog

####What is nextWhat is nextWhat is nextWhat is next ………… Web 2.0Web 2.0Web 2.0Web 2.0

####“... far from having “crashed”, the web is more

important than ever, with exciting newapplications and sites popping up with

surprising regularity … Could it be that the

dot.com collapse marked some kind of turning

point for the web, such that a call to

action such as “Web 2.0” might make sense?”

Tim O’Reilly on the birth of Web 2.0

IMG SRC: Flickr

bb 1403 communication through technology 1 future trends

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